RPJ Betting Syndicate

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NFL WEEK 1 2008 PICKS

Greetings folks. Disappointing start with Thursday’s game. We learned a lot from that game though and we will exploit it later in the season. Runny is 0-1 on the NFL so far, but we like a lot of games on the first Sunday. Again, we will have RPJ picks and our individual takes. Here it goes:

RPJ PICKS (0-0 on the Season)

Cowboys -5.5 @ Browns: The Cowboys covered every weekend in September last year. They are stacked again this year on both sides of the ball. However, the Browns are, too. They made huge improvements on their D in the offseason, and although they looked terrible in the pre-season, they should be a legit contender this season. This is a lot of points to give a team like the Browns at home, which is begging you to take them. Herein lies the Vegas trap. This line has gone up all week. Don’t fall for it. Take the Boys-5.5.

Texans @ Steelers -7: The Steelers are stacked this year and the Texans are banged-up. They are just not as good as the Steelers right now. We like Matt Schaub and Mario Williams. Just not enough. We love the Steelers at home to open their season. Take the Steelers -7.

Bears @ Colts-9.5: We’ve watched the Bears pretty closely this pre-season, more so than most other teams. Take our word for it, they are a MESS on the offensive side of the ball. With the exception of Hester, they have absolutely no playmakers on offense. That does not bode well for them going into Indy. They need to score points to beat them, and the Bears just don’t have the personnel. Plus, the Bears D is severely overrated-maybe the most overrated unit is the NFL. Indy wins this game by at least 17. We don’t care about Manning’s knee. Take the Colts -9.5.

Jets @ Fins+3: Finally the Fins have some stability in the front office and at QB. This will be a great game. So many side stories: Favre’s debut in a uniform other than Green Bays; Pennington gets a revenge chance against the team that gave him a Cleveland Steamer; the Tuna’s 2008 debut. All great stuff. We like the Fins in this one because of the points, and we believe they are the better team. They will surprise everyone with how well they will run the ball this year. We think Ted Ginn finally starts showing why he was a first round pick. For the Jets, we think their D is good, but Favre is way overrated. This will be a close game. We like the points. Take the Fins at home +3.

Jags -3 @ Titans: This is our favorite game of the week. Load-up on this one if you can. We think the Jags will make it to the AFC Championship game this year. They are loaded on both sides of the field. The Titans are terrible. Vince Young has mentally checked-out and he has no playmakers to help him. Jags may shut them out. It will be ugly. We don’t care that the Titans usually play the Jags tough and cover. Take the Jags -3.

RUNNY PICKS (0-1 on the Season)

Lions -3 @ Falcons: The Falcons made some good moves in the offseason drafting Ryan and signing Michael Turner. They are going in the right direction, but it will take another year to get out of Vick’s debacle shadow. The Lions are just much better than they are this year right now. I think this line is low because Vegas is judging the Lions on the end of the year meltdown last year. The Lions have playmakers and will score some points. I don’t think Ryan is ready to keep up. Take the Lions -3.

Chiefs @ Pats -15.5: This is a ton of points and the Pats have been extremely cold when it comes to covering. However, the Chiefs are terrible and will not score points. Their D is good, but they will play mostly nickle against the Pats due to the passing attempts. When they do, 3 of their DB’s will be rookies. Brady will crush this. They may not run the ball more than 10 times in this game. Pats win in a blowout. Take the Pats-15.5.

Flash Flash Picks (0-0)
Nothing today but one game for sure on tap Monday night.

Check back with us for Monday Night’s games. We have picks for both games.

As always, good luck with your picks.

Runny and Flash

September 7, 2008 Posted by | Atlanta Falcons, Bears, Betting, Brett Favre, Browns, Chad Pennington, Chicago Bears, Chris Redman, Cleveland Browns, Colts, Cowboys, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit, Detroit Lions, Dolphins, Eric Mangini, Falcons, Football, Free NFL Divisional Round Picks, Free NFL Picks, Free NFL Wild Card Picks, Free Super Bowl Picks, Gambling, Green Bay Packers, Houston, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jaguars, Lions, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Miami, Miami Dolphins, Michael Vick, Monday Night Football Picks, New England Patriots, New York Jets, NFL, NFL Picks, Packers, Patriots, Peyton Manning, Pittsbourgh Steelers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Randy Moss, Sports, Tom brady, Vegas, Vick, Winning Picks | 1 Comment

NFL Preview: A gambler’s intro to making money

The Vegas odds on the NFL season have finally arrived and we wanted to point out to you some of the simple techniques we use to consistently make money. Lets take a look at the over/under win total for each team:

NFC East
Dallas – 9
Philly – 9
NYG- 8
Skins – 7.5

South
Carolina – 9
NO – 9
ATL – 7.5
TB – 7

North
Bears – 10
GB – 7.5
MINN – 6.5
Det – 6

West
Seattle – 9
SF – 7.5
St. Louis – 7.5
Zona – 7

AFC East
NE – 11.5
NYJ – 8
Miami – 7
Bills – 6

South
Indy – 10.5
Jacksonville – 9
TENN – 7
Houston – 6.5

North
Baltimore – 9
Pitt – 9
Cincy – 9
Cle – 5.5

West
SD – 10.5
Denver – 9.5
KC – 7.5
Oak 5

Simply put…Vegas is saying that the Patriots are the best team at 11.5 wins and the Raiders are the worst team at 5 wins. Why are the over/under win totals important? These early lines are the backbone for how Vegas is going to set their point lines this year.

Lets break down these win totals from a historic perspective:

NFL teams that won 11 or more games
2006=5
2005=10
2004=6
2003=7
2002=5
2001=8
6 year average – 6.83333

Why is this important? Well on average for the upcoming 2007 NFL season there will be 6.8 teams that win 11 or more games. Vegas right now is only saying that the Pats will win more than 11 games and has the Colts and Chargers at 10.5, close but not 11. Plain and simple numbers are saying that there should be 6.8 teams that win 11 or more games and Vegas only has one team identified that can do this. Even if you take the low numbers of 5 teams from 2002 and 2006, that still means there are 4 chances to beat these numbers.

NFL Teams that won 5 games or less in a season
2006= 6
2005=10
2004=7
2003=10
2002=6
2001=7
year average – 7.66666

This stat is even more telling. Vegas has only one team at 5 wins and this stat says that on average, over the last 6 years, there will be 7.6 teams that win 5 games or less. Again this is creating a money making opportunity to find the 6-7 other teams besides the Raiders that will win only 5 games or less. These will be easy under bets.

So to start off this betting year we have identified 11 betting opportunities where we feel Vegas is off by 3 games under or over.

Lets look at the over opportunites. We have spotted 5 opportunities to beat Vegas:

1) Bears – The Bears have an easy schedule and play in a weak division. We think they will win 14 games and Vegas only thinks they will win 10.

2) Saints – The Saints are also in an easy division and Vegas has them tied with Carolina with 9 wins. We think this is a joke and the Saints ar emuch better and will win the conference and come in with 13 wins.

3) Rams – Vegas has this high flying time under .500 at 7.5. C’mon now. S. Jackson will tear it up this year and the offense will be tough to stop with Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael as new additions. Rams win 11 games and the division.

4) Bengals – The Bengals play in a tough division but we think they have a favorable schedule and will win 13 games. Vegas has them at 9.

5) Chargers – We think the Chargers are the best team in the AFC and play in an easy division. This team will be on a mission. We see them at 15-1 and Vegas has them only at 10.5 wins.

Now for the fun stuff and finding the teams that will stink up the joint this year. It is amazing to us that Vegas only put one team at 5 wins. We see 6 money making opportunities for betting unders.

1) Vikings – Vegas puts this team at 6.5. We are laughing hysterically at this pick. Go look for yourself and find even 3 games you think they will win. We think this is the worst team in the league and will be lucky to win more than one game.

2) Atlanta – This speaks for itself. This team is a mess following the Vick legal mess. Vegas thinks they win 7.5 games and we think it looks more like 2. Go find 8 wins on this teams schedule. WE DARE YOU!!!!!

3) Tampa Bay – Vegas puts this team at 7 wins. Lets take a look….No RBs, no WRs, a gay QB and lame duck coach. 7 wins…..we think it will be more like 4.

4) Miami – The Trent Green experiment will go as sour as a Cleo Lemon. Vegas put this win total at 7 wins. We sharted ourselves laughing so hard that the experts think they can win 7 games. We think they will win one game.

5) Houston – Vegas put this team at 6.5 wins. The Matt Schaub experiment showed us all that he is a born loser. He might have put up some stats in the past but he sure knows how to lose and he will not enjoy throwing behind that line that ran Carr out of town. They will be lucky to win more than 3 games.

6) KC Chiefs – This team is the Raiders with Larry Johnson and a worse Defense. Vegas thinks they can win 7.5 games and we think 7.5 is the number of coaching mistakes Herm Edwards will average during each game. Chiefs might win 2 games this year.

So there you have it. We outlined where we think Vegas has made mistakes and we are putting our money where our predictions are. The Rams are probably the hottest pick going right now so you probably want to jump on that one before the lines move too much.

Flash Flash and Runny

August 25, 2007 Posted by | 49ers, Atlanta Falcons, Bears, Bengals, Betting, Bills, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs, Colts, Cowboys, Dolphins, Eagles, Falcons, Gambling, Giants, Jaguars, Jets, Lions, NFL, Packers, Panthers, Patriots, Raiders, Rams, Ravens, Redskins, Saints, Seahawks, Steelers, Texans, Titans, Uncategorized, Vegas, Vick, Vikings | 1 Comment

Michael ConVick’s Statement from U.S. District Court….Huh?

Text of a statement by Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Vick, as read outside U.S. District Court in Richmond, Va., on Thursday by lawyer Billy Martin:

“Today in court I pleaded innocent to the allegations made against me. I take these charges very seriously and look forward to clearing my good name. I respectfully ask all of you to hold your judgment until all of the facts are shown. Above all I would like to say to my mom I’m sorry for what she has had to go through in this most trying of times. It has caused pain to my family and I apologize to my family. I also want to apologize to my Falcon teammates for not being with them at the beginning of spring training.”

Well well well. Does anybody really think these are Michael ConVick’s words. Give me a break!!!! He did not plead innocent, he pleaded not guilty to the charges. Next thing…he apologized to his mom and family. Why did he do this and what was he apologizing for? Innocent people do not apologize to anybody when they are charged with bogus crimes. Did the Duke lacrosse kids apologize? Hell no, they came out swinging publicly in an effort to defend their names. Vick has not spoken himself since the NFL draft, why? Michael Convick… your fans want to hear from you and the public wants to know what is going on. He apologized to his teamates but not to the Falcons organization, owner Arthur Blank or coach Bobby Petrino. I bet Petrino wishes he never left Louisville and Blank wishes he never signed ConVick to a $130 million contract. Then to wrap up ConVick’s brilliant statement, he says he is not with his teamates at the beginning of Spring Training. Say what? ConVick is now the pitcher for the Atlanta Braves and not the QB for the Atlanta Falcons. He is not attending Camp!!! Who the heck wrote this bogus statement? What a joke. Now everybody knows ConVick did not say these words and these are not his words. Way to start out strong Mr. Attorney Billy Martin. Nice work.

Flash Flash

July 27, 2007 Posted by | Atlanta Falcons, Michael Vick, Michael Vick Dog Fighting, Petrino, Sports, Vick | Leave a comment

Michael ConVick and the NFL Hypocrisy

It has taken me a solid day to wrap myself around the Michael Vick indictment. I was originally outraged and wanted Vick kicked out of the league but then I thought I would be a hypocrite for how I handled the Duke lacrosse player accused rape scandal saying we needed to wait until we hear all of the facts and that people in this country are innocent until proven guilty. After one day I think I can break down what is happening in this situation and am comfortable with my opinion. My opinion is that Michael Vick is a low life criminal and he should be immediately suspended from the league without pay and dropped from every sponsor he has. Here is why:

Duke vs. Vick The Facts – In the Duke lacrosse case, the story of what actually happened in that house was under dispute from Day 1. Each stripper had a different story, some of the accused had proof that they were not at the party when the now bogus crime took place, the DA was a local guy in an election year taking advantage of a touchey race situation for his own benefit. Also, I have first hand experience and knowledge of what it is like to be an athlete at a top caliber school where you play division one sports and the stripper stories just were not believeable. D-1 lax players at schools like Duke, Hopkins and Princeton are close to Gods on campus and can get and do whatever they want so they are not going to rape some low class stripper when they can have instant sex at the snap of a finger from eager freshmen girls looking to hang with the lax guys. They are called laxtitutes at princeton and this is fact. Now why this is different than the Vick case is simple…Vick is facing an indictment from the FEDS, not some local clown. 95% of cases that are brought to trial in Vick’s district see the prosecutor win. Here are the Vick facts that can not be disputed:

– Vick bought the house on June 29, 2001 for $34,000
– Vick started buying pit bulls after he bought the house and they know from where including locations in NC, NY and Richmond, VA
– Sept. 2001 he bought more pit bulls
– Early 2002 he bought more dogs
– Early 2002 Vick started Bad Newz Kennels and made shirts and headbands representing this business
– Between 2002 and 2005 Vick built a fence to shield the rear portion of the house from public view, built multiple sheds that housed training equipment commonly used by dogfighter, built kennels, buried car axles with chains for the pit bulls
– Vick “rolled” some of the put bulls in Virginia Beach. Rolled means placing the dog in a short fight to see how it does.
– In 2002, Vick rolled lots of dogs at his property
– Vick hosted a fight for his dog Zebro against a dog named Maniac that had a $2,000 purse. Zebro lost.
– Late 2002, Vick’s dog Chico won a $2,000 fight at his house against a dog from alabama
– Spring of 2003, Vick travelled with his dog Jane to NC for a $3,00 fight and won
– Late 2003, Vick took Jane to NJ to fight for $10,000 and Jane won
– Spring of 2003, Vick travelled to SC with his pit Big Boy and won a $2,000 fight
– Late 2003, Vick goes back to SC with Big Boy and wins a $7,200 fight
– Spring 2004, Vick fights Big Boy at his home against a pit from NJ and wins $3,000
– March 2003, Vick hosts $26,000 fight with a female pit fight and loses
– March 2003, at same fight, Vick has his male dog fight in a $20,000 fight and his dog loses
– March 2003, Vick takes female pit to fight in a $6,000 fight in Surry County, Virginia. Fight was a scratch when Vick’s dog jumped out of the ring
– March 2003 – Vick loses the rematch
– Fall of 2003, Vick takes pit bull named Magic to South Carolina for a $6,000 fight. Magic wins

AND the list goes on for Vick and his cohorts.

Hers ia a crazy one and comes during the same month Vick met with the NFL Commissioner and said he was not invloved with this in any way.

– April 2007 – Vick rolls dogs at his house
– Vick was part of executing the dogs that did not roll well
– Vick was part of killing the dogs by means of hanging, drowning and body slamming
– On April 25, 2007, at Vick’s property, he possessed 54 pit bulls, a rape stand, a break/parting stick used to pry open dog’s mouths during fighting, treadmills and slat mills used to condition dogs

There are 84 items in the indictment, 84 freakin items that pinpoints Vick and who he was with and when. The FEDS do not put together a case willy nilly, this is some serious stuff. When I read this I am disgusted. I do not know how Vick disputes 84 line items on this indictment. In order for the FEDS to put all of this information in the indictment they need to have a lot of facts, witnesses and need to have an airtight case. This is the same court that tried and convicted Scooter Libby. This is not some small rinky dink Court.

Now when I look at all of the things I nkow about Vick I see the following, the Ron Mexico incident, refusing to hand over a water bottle at the airport, flipping off fans at games and now this. He uses bad judgement and always has. In the court of public opinion this is far different than the Duke lax case. This is very real and serious, the FEDS are backing up their case with a ton of information and witnesses that span over 4 years. They have Vick involved in dog fighting not just 1-2 times but numerous times over multiple years. Vick will be tried in the Court of law and will likely be found guilty. I do believe everybody deserves a fair trial and is innocent until proven guilty but this is one case where I know Vick is guilty and is going to jail and paying a large fine. I think Vick should be suspended, should never play football again and should lose all of his endorsments, which brings me to my next point….the hypocrisy of the NFL.

The NFL came out already and said that they are not taking any actions against Vick at this time and are waiting to let this pay out. Excuse me, are you kidding me? Goodell sent Pac Man Jones packing before his case went to trial and reserves the right to increase Pac Man Jones’ suspension. What gives? Vick should be gone immediately and suspended indefinitely until his case closes. If he is guilty, which I know he will be, he deserves jail and to never play again. there are simply too many stories, witnesses of Vick’s involvement in dog fighting and when you couple that with the fact the Prosecutors in the Court where Vick is going to be tried win 95% of the time, you know this case is for real and Vick is going down. The NFL suspended Pac Man, Tank, Chris Henry, Jared Allen and needs to step strong against Vick. There is no need to wait until this case plays out….Suspend him now!!!!!!

Flash Flash

July 19, 2007 Posted by | Atlanta Falcons, Duke, Michael Vick, NFL, Vick | 11 Comments