RPJ Betting Syndicate

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Utah at Oregon St. = Money making opportunity II

Here is where the syndicate stands right now:

We loaded up the Brinks truck on LSU vs. Mississippi St….Most of our cash is in at 18.5 and we threw some more coinage on it when it dropped to 18. The last time I checked today the spread was 19.5. We would not be surprised to see this go off at kickoff in the 21 point range. LSU will crush them.

Our second game of the night is Oregon St. (-6.5) at home against Utah. This is a nice game when you give less than 7 points. We expect it to be a two touchdown or more win but under 7 is a steal. Oregon St. returns 18 starters form the team that beat USC last year and this squad is always tough at home. Oregon St. has one of the best offensive lines in college football if not the best line in the nation. In 2006, Oregon St. outscored opponents 129 to 55 in the first quarter and we expect hem to get off to a fast start and it will simply be too much for Utah too handle in a hostile environment.

College football is finally here and we are pumped up.

Let us know through the comment board if you ever want our thoughts on any particular game. We are here to share our insights for now so we can prove to you that our methodology successfully picks winners and will help keep you ahead of the vig. We do not believe that football is about picking winners and losers in every game; we are here to find the favorable spreads and situations that other people are glancing over or taking for granted. We might have weeks where we pick zero or one game but we will have others where we will pick 10 if we see opportunities. Stay tuned for more commentary on this weekend and Monday’s games. We are watching the lines and will pounce when the opportunity is there. Also, we always put our money where our mouth is and will share the wins and the losses with all of our followers.

Flash Flash and Runny

August 30, 2007 Posted by | Beavers, Betting, ESPN, Football, Les Miles, LSU, LSU Tigers, Mississippi, NCAA, ncaa football, Oregon State, Pac-10, Sports, USC, USC Trojans, Utah, Utah Utes | Leave a comment

LSU vs. Miss St. – Load up the Brinks Truck…. It is time to steal some money!!!!

Every year there is one game that simply jumps off the oddsmakers boards and screams at you to load up the farm and bet the bank. These are usually games where Vegas just does not know all the teams yet and makes a blatant error. Last year the easiets line all year was USC at Arkansas. I think USC was favored by a TD. Well we know how that blowout ended. The game was not even competititve. So guess what….we see a similar game this year already….LSU (-18.5) at Mississippi St. Danny Sheridan opened this line at -16.5 and it quickly moved up to 17.5 and now up to 18.5. Well we do not care. This should be a blowout and here is why:

LSU is 7-0 against the spread in away games at Miss St. since 1992.
LSU is 9-1 against the spread in their last ten against Missippi St. and the lone loss is last year’s debacle when Les Miles put in all his scrubs and played prevent, I mean no defense, and let Miss. St. get back into the game after running out to a 35-0 lead in the 2nd quarter. Also, last year was a classic “Nebraska syndrome” game. The Nebraksa syndrome is when a team is playing a weaker opponent at home and is in front a large home crowd and all of their largest boosters and is winning and the coach decides to not only put out the second string but puts out the 3rd, 4th and 5th strings as well so that the boosters can see everybody play and probably some of their own kids get some action at home in front of home crowd. LSU fell victim to the Nebraksa syndrome last year against Miss. St and this year we are more confident they will cover because it is on the road.

Here are the scores in their last 6 games:
LSU 48-17
LSU 37-7
LSU 51-0
LSU 41-6
LSU 31-13
LSU 42-0
Average score = LSU 42 Miss St. 7

Yup the difference is 35 points and that is where this spread should be. LSU has incredible talent on both sides of the ball and Miss St. simply can not hang with this team.

Just to throw it out there…here is what one naysayer wants to let you believe (I think it must be from a bookie who has the wrong side of the line), just kidding. The quote is from an LSU insider website called www.dandydon.com. The quote was posted on August 26 at 7:10AM.

While most Tiger fans believe that the game against Mississippi State is going to be like taking candy from a baby, that might not be the case if you take a look at the way MSU finished the 2006 season. The last five games of last season MSU lost 27-24 at Georgia, lost 34-31 to Kentucky, defeated Alabama 24-16 at Alabama (in my opinion the lost to MSU is what cost Mike Shula his job at Alabama), lost to Arkansas 28-14, and lost at Ole Miss 20-17. LSU played four of these same five teams and defeated Kentucky 49-0, defeated Ole Miss 23-20 in overtime, defeated Alabama 28-14 and Arkansas 31-26. The strength of the MSU team will be on offense with nine returning starters. Anthony Dixon returns at running back and is one of the best in the league. The Bulldogs return five starters in the offensive line led by center Royce Blackledge. Junior Michael Henig is the starting quarterback at MSU and does some things very well but is not very mobile. Mississippi State only returns five starters on a defense that gave up an average of 309 yards and 26 points per game in 2006.

We just wanted to show you that there are other opinions out there that this will not be a blowout. We said our piece and this is a great opportunity to start the NCAA season on a winning note.

Flash Flash and Runny

August 29, 2007 Posted by | Arkansas Razorbacks, Betting, ESPN, Football, Gambling, Les Miles, LSU, LSU Tigers, Mississippi, NCAA, ncaa football, Pac-10, SEC, Uncategorized, USC, USC Trojans, Vegas, Winning Picks | Leave a comment

SEC Bias Infiltrates the Coaches Ranks

USA Today put out their annual pre-season NCAA college football coaches poll today and this thing is a joke. Based on this disgrace I am not even going to bother paying attention to this poll this season. The SEC bias as being the toughest and best league in football has now breached the ranks of this poll. Lets take a look to see what I am talking about.

Check out the USA Today Top 25 Coaches’ Poll by clicking here

Now scroll down to the bottom to see who the coaches are in this poll. I am actually going to paste this info in so you can see (Please note names in bold):

The USA TODAY Board of Coaches is made up of 60 head coaches at Division I-A institutions. All are members of the American Football Coaches Association. This season’s board: Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech; Mike Bellotti, Oregon; Bret Bielema, Wisconsin; Larry Blakeney, Troy; Bobby Bowden, Florida State; Tommy Bowden, Clemson; Jeff Bower, Southern Mississippi; Art Briles, Houston; Mack Brown, Texas; Bill Callahan, Nebraska; Neil Callaway, UAB; Lloyd Carr, Michigan; Mario Cristobal, Florida International; Sylvester Croom, Mississippi State; Bill Cubit, Western Michigan; Mark Dantonio, Michigan State; Butch Davis, North Carolina; Bill Doba, Washington State; Randy Edsall, Connecticut; Dennis Franchione, Texas A&M; Phillip Fulmer, Tennessee; Jeff Genyk, Eastern Michigan; Joe Glenn, Wyoming; Jim Grobe, Wake Forest; Dan Hawkins, Colorado; Pat Hill, Fresno State; Steve Kragthorpe, Louisville; Mike Leach, Texas Tech; Rocky Long, New Mexico; Sonny Lubick, Colorado State; Bill Lynch, Indiana; Doug Martin, Kent State; Les Miles, LSU; Shane Montgomery, Miami (Ohio); Hal Mumme, New Mexico State; Joe Novak, Northern Illinois; Houston Nutt, Arkansas; Tom O’Brien, North Carolina State; George O’Leary, Central Florida; Gary Patterson, TCU; Chris Petersen, Boise State; Mark Richt, Georgia; Mike Riley, Oregon State; Rich Rodriguez, West Virginia; Greg Schiano, Rutgers; Howard Schnellenberger, Florida Atlantic; Mark Snyder, Marshall; Frank Solich, Ohio; Steve Spurrier, South Carolina; Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee State; Bob Stoops, Oklahoma; Jeff Tedford, California; Joe Tiller, Purdue; Bob Toledo, Tulane; Dick Tomey, San Jose State; Jim Tressel, Ohio State; Tommy Tuberville, Auburn; Charlie Weis, Notre Dame; Tyrone Willingham, Washington; Ron Zook, Illinois.

Ok what did you notice? I noticed 7 SEC coaches are part of this poll, that is more than 10% of the entire group of coaches. Now lets take a look and see how many SEC teams received votes/points:

LSU = 1,372
Florida = 1,278
Georgia = 604
Auburn = 595
Tennessee = 583
Arkansas = 360
South Carolina = 90
Alabama = 16
Kentucky = 1

So what do these numbers tell us? They tell us that the coaches gave points to 9 out of 12 teams in the SEC. This is a complete joke. There were not even 9 SEC teams that finished with an overall winning record last year. Who are these SEC coaches trying to fool? It is more sour grapes and complaining by the likes of Les Miles. These coaches are making excuses for their teams; excuses that their schedules are SOOOOOO hard that they deserve a break at the end of the year and should be playing in meaningful BCS games. Well last time I looked you need to play the schedule and conference games you were dealt and if you perform well in those games than you deserve to play for a title. Instead of the majority of SEC coaches scheduling tough out of conference opponents like Southern Cal, they are taking the easy route and hiding behind the likes of Tulane, Middle Tenn St. and the Louisiana, Lafayettes of the world and saying that their conference schedules are SOOOOOOOO extremely difficult that they can schedule Western Wahoo St. for homecoming to give their players a break. Just look around the country you blinded Southern boys….USC is doing a home and away with Ohio St. Notre Dame is picking up Oklahoma for a series. This is the way to beef up a schedule and to gain respect. These 7 coaches that are part of the USA Today poll are simply trying to raise the profile of their programs and their league and they should be held accountable. Keep in mind this is the same poll that gave Duke (0-12 last year) and Memphis (2-10 last year) points this year. Cocahes’ picks should be made public for all to see.

I can not wait for this season to start and all eyes will be on the CAL/TENN early season matchup to see just how good the SEC and Pac-10 really are. I am hoping Tennessee is the favorite in this game so I can bet the farm on CAL. This is a revenge game and CAl will show up in the first half this time around.

Stay tuned for our NCAA preview and NFL preview picks.

Flash Flash

August 3, 2007 Posted by | Alabama Tide, Arkansas Razorbacks, Auburn Tigers, BCS, Coaches Poll, Duke, Florida, Florida Gators, Football, Kentucky Wildcats, Les Miles, LSU, LSU Tigers, Mississippi, NCAA, ncaa football, Pac-10, Pete Carroll, SEC, South Carolina Gamecocks, Sports, Tennessee, Uncategorized, USC, USC Trojans | 1 Comment

Les Miles Update – Miles Needed an Excuse

I just read a brilliant article on sportsillustrated.com written by Stewart Mandel….Check it out… Better Les unsaid: LSU’s Miles called out USC; now Tigers must deliver

Lets go through some of Stewart’s points on what Les Miles had to say:

“I would like nothing better than to play USC for the [national] title,” Miles reportedly said in a speech to a heavily pro-LSU gathering in New Orleans. “I can tell you this, that they have a much easier road to travel. They’re going to play real knockdown drag-outs with UCLA and Washington, Cal-Berkeley, Stanford — some real juggernauts — and they’re going to end up, it would be my guess, in some position so if they win a game or two, that they’ll end up in the title [game]. “I would like that path for us. I think the SEC provides much stiffer competition.”

And then Mandel’s repsonse:

“Forget for a moment the numerous, logical flaws in Miles’ diatribe (i.e., the fact the team he’s bashing beat SEC West champion Arkansas 50-14 last season). Forget for a moment the seemingly arbitrary shots at innocent bystanders Washington and Stanford. (Is Pete Carroll out there dissing Vanderbilt and Mississippi State at his booster functions?). The real question is, why is Miles so worked up in the first place about a school 2,000 miles away? The answer: because his fans are.”

– We all know Pete Carroll is 4-0 against the SEC during his tenure at USC so we can throw numerous points at how easy or hard the Pac-10 and SEC are. The last sentence is really where the poison gets stung. LSU’s fans have nothing better to do than to think about LSU and the other power teams in the nation. Louisiana is a disaster state, literally speaking..Katrina wiped them out; their beloved New Orleans has not returned to its glory days (trust me, I have been there), the Saints are a side story, there is no baseball and the list ca go on and on. LSU fans have nothing going on right now so all they can think about is LSU football and this upcoming season and that means Les Miles is biggerthan the President right now. He is expected to take his talented team to an undefeated season and a national title that would be a home game in the Super Dome.

From Mandel: “The preseason mags have hit the newsstands, and the Trojans — for the third time in four years — appear to be a lock for No. 1. While there appears to be no consensus on No. 2, the most common choice — including this writer’s — seems to be the Tigers. It makes sense. No two programs have recruited more pure talent over the past five years (at least according to the recruiting rankings) than USC and LSU. Both went 11-2 and won BCS games last year. Both have playmakers up the wazoo on offense. Both return most of the starters from their already dominant defenses.”

– As a USC fan, yes I am one, I personally will be extremely disappointed if USC does not go undefeated and win the national title. They return 10 players on defense and that is before they add some super froshes like the E-Freak and Chris Galippo and you combine this with an always lethal offense that will be led by Booty time following an impressive first season under center; this team is ready to roll. Now, If I was an LSU fan, which I am not, I would have the same expectations on this upcoming season. LSU returns a ton of talent and recruited great players (minus Joe McKnight of course)….the pressure is on them! LSU should be in the title game. Plain and simple…NO EXCUSES.

From Mandel: “Now, LSU’s coach has gone so far as to insert himself into a war of words previously waged solely in cyberspace (or on billboards). That’s sure to work followers on both sides into a lather. But it still doesn’t explain why he’s mocking USC’s schedule. In a follow-up conversation with reporters several days after his initial comments, Miles harped on a theme that’s become almost nauseatingly redundant among SEC coaches over the past year: Why their league is so tough. Miles’ view may just be the most zealous yet. If college football were to go to an eight-team playoff, he said, “there’d probably be at least four SEC teams in the top eight.”

– I will let Mandel tackle this issue because he states it perfectly and loud and clear. “But it’s not like the league is indisputably head and shoulders above everyone else. Perhaps Miles needs a reminder that two of his league’s best teams last year, Arkansas and Tennessee, lost to the third- (Wisconsin) and fourth-place (Penn State) teams from the Big Ten in their bowl games. Or that the year before that, the SEC’s champion (Georgia) lost its bowl game to the Big East’s champion (West Virginia).”
– Lets look at the top 4 teams in the SEC last year:
Florida won the title so they would be in a playoff
Tennessee lost in their bowl game to a weak Penn St. team
Arkansas was destroyed by USC at home and lost their bowl game
LSU lost to Auburn, which was not a top 4 team in the SEC and lost to Florida and beat a terrible Notre Dame team in their bowl game.
These teams are not amongst the 8 best in the country by any means and their record and post season records prove it.

This Mandel point speaks for itself: USC’s easy “path” last year included a BCS team (Notre Dame) and two major-conference division champions (Nebraska and Arkansas). LSU’s non-conference schedule, meanwhile, consisted of Louisiana-Lafayette, Tulane, Fresno State and Arizona. Under the BCS’ old strength-of-schedule formula — the one that shined so favorably upon the Tigers in ’03 prior to its removal from the standings, the Trojans played the nation’s toughest schedule; LSU’s was 11th.

Man these points are easy to make!!!

And here is Mandel’s final point: “So what, then, was the motivation behind his unexpected boisterousness? Here’s a guess: He’s covering his butt. Yep. That’s right. Miles’ comments were one big excuse-in-the-making. He’s seen the prognostications. He knows the experts are projecting a USC-LSU matchup. He knows his fans are foaming at the mouth for just such an outcome. And he’s trying to diffuse those expectations — and temper the possible letdown — by saying, “Hey, I’d love to play USC, too, but if they get there and we don’t, it’s because we had to play Florida while they got to play Stanford.” You can read it between the lines in this follow-up comment to the Baton Rouge Advocate: “To say that the only achievement and the only positive ending is with one game and one game’s ending, that’s near-sighted, and that’s a long way away.” Well, here’s one person who’s not letting you off the hook so easily, Les. You and your people have laid down the gauntlet, so now, you better make this thing happen. If the Trojans hold up their end of the bargain and reach the Superdome, we better see some purple and gold on that other sideline. You worked up the crowd, coach — now give ’em what they want.”

Mandel says it all. Miles is simply trying to cover his butt. He is afraid of the upcoming season and needs an excuse. If I were the AD of LSU, I would fire him on the spot for making these excuses for his team this early in the season. If USC loses a game, they do not deserve a shot at the national title and if they go undefeated they absolutely do. Les Miles should hold his team up to these same standards….Take care of the matter at hand, win all of your games and you certainly will be playing in the BCS title game. Lose a game and you can go play Notre Dame again in the side game. Be afraid Les Miles, excuses will not save you this season and all of Trojan Nation wants a piece of the team you are making excuses for already. Actually, USC wants a piece of the team that wants to live up to their potential, go undefeated and have a shot at an undisputed national title. Mr. Miles…. your excuses will only carry you so far!!!!!

Flash Flash

July 7, 2007 Posted by | BCS, Les Miles, LSU, LSU Tigers, NCAA, ncaa football, Notre Dame, Pac-10, Pete Carroll, SEC, Sports, Stewart Mandel, thoughts, USC, USC Trojans | 12 Comments

“Les Miles is a Jackass” and other headlines from the over-hyped SEC

On July 1, 2007, Les Miles, esteemed coach of LSU, went on the attack and called out USC, the Pac-10 and the Big Ten. Refer to exhibit A – LSU coach rates SEC best. Lets take a closer look at some of his comments and then bring up some issues he clearly intentionally chose to ignore.

“I can tell you this, that they have a much easier road to travel,” Miles said of the Trojans. “They’re going to play real knockdown drag-outs with UCLA and Washington, Cal-Berkley, Stanford — some real juggernauts — and they’re going to end up, it would be my guess, in some position so if they win a game or two, that they’ll end up in the title (game). I would like that path for us.

What a funny guy you are Les. Last year you invited Louisiana-Lafayette (6-6 team out of the Sun Belt) , Fresno St. (4-8 out of the WAC) and Tulane (4-8 out of C-USA) for home games and you still got to play Miss St. (3-9) (a game you did not cover) and Mississippi (4-8). You lost to Auburn, a team that barely beat Nebraska 17-14; a team USC easily beat 28-10. LSU barely beat Tennessee, a team that a terrible Penn St. team beat, barely beat Mississippi and barely beat Arkansas, a team USC destroyed on the road 50-14 and who also lost their bowl game to a Big Ten team. So Les… lets take a look at the out of conference juggernauts you decided to play in 2007:

Middle Tennessee St.
Tulane
Louisiana Tech
Virginia Tech – I will give props where they are due and this is a great non conference game but it is at home this year. The other three games are a total joke.

in conference you play:

Miss. St.
Mississippi

So before the season starts you know you have 5 blow out games that will not be close.

So now lets look at what USC does with their non-conference schedule. Last year they played:

Arkansas
Nebraska – road
Notre Dame

This year they play:

Idaho
Nebraska – road
Notre Dame – road

USC looks to play big names. USC picks up Ohio St. in 2008 and is talking to BC about playing a series with them. They are not trolling the Sun Belt or Conf USA looking for beat on teams to come play in the Coliseum. You get what you deserve and if you play good teams and you beat them all your season will not be questioned and you go to the BCS. If you have a loss or two you do not deserve to be there.

More jibber jabber from Les Miles:

Miles said the subject of the SEC’s superiority came up at league meetings in May. The conference office compiled statistics showing 58 football players from SEC schools were invited to the NFL Scouting Combine, where pro scouts and coaches evaluate players before the draft. The Atlantic Coast Conference and Big 12 Conference each had 43 players invited, NFL records show. The Pac-10 was fourth with 39 players invited. Eleven of the 32 players selected in the first round of the 2007 NFL draft came from SEC schools, including four LSU players. JaMarcus Russell, the No. 1 pick, played three seasons for the Tigers, two of them for Miles. Based on the above and two seasons of coaching in the SEC, Miles told his New Orleans audience the conference, from week to week, is the football league “most like the NFL” in America.

What does this have to do with anything? USC has 10 of 11 starters returning on Defense so how can their players go to the combine or get drafted. Are USC’s players less talented because they are young and not eligible for the NFL. USC is becoming the model in college football with a all positions are open for competition philosophy and if you are an 18 year old freshman or a 23 year old 5 year senior you will get the chance to play if you are the best player on the field. USC has ridiculous talent and this is evident from them having top 1 or 2 draft classes the last three years. These kids can not play in the NFL even if they wanted to because they are not eligible so who gets drafted means diddly poo in my book.

More from Les:

In nine seasons of the BCS, the SEC has three national champions: Tennessee in 1998, LSU in 2003 and Florida in 2006. Auburn was undefeated in 2004 but didn’t play in the BCS Championship Game, finishing third in the BCS standings behind eventual champion USC and runner-up Oklahoma. Miles said Auburn was the victim of an injustice and repeated his assertion that an unbeaten SEC champion should play for a national championship. Two SEC schools — LSU in 2003 and Florida in 2006 — proved a team doesn’t have to be undefeated to win a national title. Both were 13-1, the only teams in BCS history to win the championship without a perfect record.

Right Mr. Miles, Auburn not playing for a national title in 2004 was an injustice but a one loss USC team in 2003 was just and fair when LSU won the title. USC dismantled a favored Michigan squad when LSU barely made it past an Oklahoma squad. An undefeated SEC team means absolutely nothing when the entire conference schedules games against 1-AA schools, the WAC and Sun Belt conferences. In 2004, Auburn played Louisiana Monroe at home, Citadel at home and Louisiana Tech at home while USC played at Virginia Tech (a 24-13 win), Colorado St at home, at BYU and at home against Notre Dame. I think USC plays a significantly tougher schedule and deserved to be in this game. Going undefeated in the SEC playing powder puff schedules does not merit an instant pass through to the BCS title game if teams like USC are stepping up and playing ranked non-conference teams on the road every year.

So Mr. Miles I am calling you and the SEC out. Of course you want to knock down USC anyway you can, they are the model franchise and the team to beat year in and year out since Pete Carroll got through his first season as coach. They walked on down to Louisiana and stole Joe McKnight right out from under your nose, they go to Michigan and take top recruits from that stae and go to NJ and take them from there. They run an NFL style defense and offense. They have numerous coaches on their staff with NFL experience. They are plain and simple the team to beat. The only way to knock them down is to attack the Pac-10. Well the Pac-10 has only seen two undefeated teams run through that conference in the last 40 years and the SEC has seen 4 teams go undefeated. The SEC is hiring NFL coaches to take over some of the underperforming teams in the league or hiring a Ty Willingham who has always been successful and simply took a bad rap at Notre Dame. You saw what Weis did with Ty’s players. The Pac-10 is on the rise and the SEC is going to get passed much like the nation passed the Big 10 (reason for an entire other blog on why the Big Ten does not understand the new dynamics of college football).

I am begging and praying that USC faces the SEC winner in the BCS game and I am hoping it is LSU so we can go toe to toe, match up strength and speed and coaching and smash it out. I know what the outcome will be and nothing you face in the SEC or the Sun Belt or Conference USA will prepare you for the Trojans. Les…Thanks for the bulletin board material in July. I hope it comes back to haunt you.

Flash Flash

July 5, 2007 Posted by | BCS, Big Ten, Florida, Football, Les Miles, LSU, LSU Tigers, Mississippi, NCAA, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Pac-10, Pete Carroll, SEC, Sports, USC, USC Trojans, Virginia Tech | Leave a comment