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UFC 76: 5 money making picks and the Ice Man returns!!!

Just so know up front I am 13-7-1 since I started publically revealing my UFC picks. UFC 76 has some great cards, probably not for the casual fan but the MMA addicts will love this card.

5 Picks for tonight’s card:

1) Tyson Griffin (-135) vs. Tavares (+105): I watched the Griffin/Guida fight again this week and Guida gor totally screwed. He beat Griffin handily in my book. Tavares is undeafeated and looked jacked at the weigh-in. I think Tavares handles Griffin with his combo of Muay Thai and Jiu Jitsu and is the underdog. Go with Tavares.

2) Machida (-275) vs. Nakamura (+215) – Nakamura is a clown and was dancing during the weigh in and pulling his pants up high and really looked like a jackass. Machida is 10-0 and will pummel him. Machida in an easy one.

3) Sanchez (-105) vs. Fitch (-125) – The money has been moving Fitch’s way. He is bigger and has not lost since 2003. Sanchez lost his last fight and looked a little soft at weigh in. He was also throwing things into the crowd and I do not like to see that. I want to see somebody who is all business. Fitch looked ripped and should be able to control this fight with his superior wrestling skills. Take Fitch all the way.

4) Forest (+225) vs. Rua (-285) – Forest might get lucky and land a wild haymaker but Rua is the real deal and is superior in every facet of his game. I like Forest as a fighter but not in this situation. Rus wins easily.

5) Chuck (-450) vs. Jardine (+300) – This is an easy rebound fight for Chuck. Jardine has had his moments in some fights like his win against Forest Griffin but he will not be able to stand with Chuck in this one. It will probably end in the first round. Chuck looked like he is in much better shape versus his fight versus Rampage and he knows he needs to win if you ever want to hear his name again on a main card. Chuck rolls easy in this one.

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September 23, 2007 Posted by | Chuck Liddell, mma, Rampage Jackson, ufc, Ultimate Fighter, Winning Picks | 1 Comment

UFC 75: 3 money making picks

I want to get my UFC picks out there for this weekend’s free fight card on Spike tv. Dana White is a genius. He needs as many people as possible to see the Rampage/Henderson fight so everybody gets to watch the winner and know the winner. So far since I started posting my picks I am 12-5-1 and was 5-2 with my UFC 74 picks…french canadians be damned.

1) Bisping (-225) versus Hamill (+185) – I want to start by linking you to mmajunkie.com. This guy interviewed Bisping and it is hilarious. Click this link to read the interview: Michael Bisping Discusses UFC 75 — A UFCjunkie.com Interview Some of my favorite lines include:

UFCjunkie.com: Were they (hamill and Abbadi) really that tight on the show?
Michael Bisping: Maybe there was a little man-love going on. (laughs) Seriously, you could see the connection. There was some electricity there. But whatever. It’s 2007. I’m all for gays. More power to them. (laughs) But honestly, they did portray (Matt) as a bit of a teddy bear, and that wasn’t the case at all.

UFCjunkie.com: Well, you’re both light heavyweights. If they offered you a fight against Tito, is that something you would take?
Michael Bisping: Of course. I’d be f—ng happy to sock his big basketball head all over the Octagon. (laughs) I’m only joking. You’re going to quote me on that, aren’t you?

This is going to be a fun fight and both guys are undefeated. I think Bisping in front of his home crowd will have a lot to prove. He knows Hammill does not like him and will be coming for him quick and strong. I think the first 30 seconds will be fast and furious and then they will buckle down and Bisping will dismantle him. Bisping wins this easy at home.

2) Cro Cop (-450) vs. Cheick Kongo (+300) – I think this fight is a joke and just a way to get Cro Cop moving up the rankings. Kongo can not hang with Cro Cop in any way. His last two fights went to decision and he was not impressive. I think Cro Cop comes into this fight very pissed off. There was talk of him retiring after Gonzaga knocked his ass out but he is back and is so methodical you know he only came back for one purpose…to regain his pride, to show the world who he is and what he is made of and to move up the heavyweight ranks for a title shot. Cro Cop knocks him out.

3) Jackson (-130) vs. Dan Henderson (even) – I love this fight. This is what fans want and hope to get if Dana can sign Fedor. The fans get a unification belt of UFC and Pride. Fans no longer need to debate who is better, the title holder of UFC or the title holder of Pride. This is going to be a fun fight. Henderson has never been knocked out and Rampage is always looking for the knockout. Henderson’s losses have come by submission (twice to Noguiera) and by decision. He just does not get knocked out. In Henderson’s last fight he knocked out Wanderlei Silva and before that went to decision with Vitor Belfort. I recently heard an interview with Dan Henderson on the Bubba the Love Sponge Show and he is the man. Dan is all business and ready to lay some damage on Jackson. I guess I am taking a simple apporoach to this one….Silva knocked out Rampage and Henderson knocked out Silva. I just think Henderson is more well rounded and has the ability to press the action if these guys stall and take it to decision. I am picking Hendo all the way.

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September 6, 2007 Posted by | Betting, Bubba the love Sponge, Gambling, mma, Rampage Jackson, Sports, ufc, Ultimate Fighter, Winning Picks | 1 Comment

UFC 74: Let’s make some more money!!!!!

Just to brag and put it out there…I was 4-0-1 with my picks during UFC 73 and am 7-3-1 on the season. There are some great fights and money making opportunities for UFC 74 so lets make some more coinage. KACHING!!!!

Babalu -280 versus Heath +210 – I am surprised this line is this close. Heath was terrible against Machida in his last fight and has a lot to prove. I think babalu will be too tough for him. Sobral’s back is against the wall since he has lost his last two. I think Sobral knows what he needs to do to regain his competitive spirit and he is up to the task.

Huerta -400 versus Crane +300 – Both of these guys come in undefeated. Here I am going with the guy who has the most experience in the UFC Octagon and that is Huerta. This is Crane’s UFC debut and he will not be ready for the attention.

Grove -240 versus Cote +190 – Never bet on a french canadian. I am taking Grove all the way. Cote is also 1-4 in the UFC. He does not know how to prepare for these fights and will lose. Grove is on a 4 fight win streak and Da Spyder is gonna beat some ass in this one and is 8 inches taller. Down with the French.

Frank Mir -185 versus Hardonk +145 – I refuse to bet on anybody from Hollland. frank Mir all the way.

Joe Stevenson -300 versus Pellegrino +220 – Stevenson will win this easily. He has surrounded himself with top notch fighters to train and to remove the label that he is a bad trainer and is lazy. He is 3-0 in his last three fights, one by cut and two by submission. With Sherk’s suspension, the belt might be up for grabs and Dana White indicated he might give Stevenson a shot at it if he can impress in this fight. Stevenson has been through a lot and I think he has matured and is ready to take this fight with ease.

GSP -260 versus Koschek +200 – I am all over Koschek in this fight for two reasons. One, and this is very important, never ever bet on a French Canadian. That should be self explanatory. Two, Koschek is really jacked up for this fight. Just look at this grouping of quotes:

According to Koscheck, that toughness shows up on fight night. “I think that the mind is 99 percent of it,” he said. “Because if you believe more than that person, and you feel like you want to just keep going and keep going and your mind keeps pushing you, I believe you’ll win. At this level, especially with me and George, because we’re probably two of the best athletes in the UFC, you’re gonna get to see a lot of speed, a lot of power, a lot of technique, and a lot of skill. We both have that, so now it’s a question of who’s going to have the mental edge. Who’s gonna break first, and who’s gonna impose their will on the other person?” “If you look at the past history of Georges St-Pierre, he said the reason he lost against Matt Hughes was because he was fighting his idol,” recalls Koscheck. “You don’t come out and say that. And after the loss he had against Matt Serra, he came out and said he didn’t train, and then came back and said he did train hard and he made a mistake, that type of thing. From the outside looking in, you would obviously think something’s wrong with this kid if he’s making up those kind of stories and that type of thing. But now, I’m glad it’s out because it’s just an advantage for me because I’m mentally tough. I come from a wrestling background so the mental toughness aspect is there, so it’s just a matter of getting my skills to the level that I need to to compete with those guys.” “I don’t give two s**ts about Georges St-Pierre,” said Koscheck without hesitation. “That’s where you’re wrong. Georges is a nice guy, but he’s trying to take food off my table. I’m trying to build a career here. This is something that I want and he’s trying to take that away from me. I don’t care if he’s a nice guy – I’ve got to kick his ass and it’s just that plain and simple. I’ve got to believe that until this fight’s over – &#$# Georges St-Pierre, he’s trying to take my dream away and that’s becoming a UFC champion. I’m not going to let him take that away from me. Maybe after the fight’s over, I’ll believe differently, but right now, my mindset is that he’s trying to take food off my table and take a dream away from me, so he’s the enemy right now as far as I’m concerned.”

That pretty much sums it up. Koschek is here to beat some ass and to not make excuses. The workouts he put himself through were insane and he is coming to fight. Take Koschek as the underdog and you will be really happy.

Couture +100 versus Gonzaga -130 – This one is pretty fascinating and should be an interesting fight. I see it going one of two ways. One is a quick knockout of Couture just like he did with Cro Cop and the other is Couture grindong down Gonzaga over the course of a long fight and eventually pounding him out. So for this one I think the most likely scenario is Couture grinding down Gonzaga and here is why:

– Couture has been in this position before. He has fought as the main card in a UFC event, he has been champion, he understands how to balance his training versus his press commitments versus all the distractions Vegas has to offer. this is all new to Gonzaga and he does not know how to handle it. Couture knows he has to be highly disciplined, knows he is a better wrestler and knows he has to stay away from Gonzaga’s Jiu jitsu and he knows he can do this. Couture has shown before that he can control the fight to go the way he wants it to.

I do think Gonzaga is super talented and does match up great in this fight. I simply think Couture is the smarter fighter, has been here before and therefore will be the better prepared fighter.

So there are my picks. If you are going to bet these fights one thing you have to do is to watch the weigh ins. The weigh ins tell a lot about a fighter’s mindset, how he looks, how he acts, is he calm, etc… the most recent example is Rampage versus Chuck. You could tell at weigh in that Chuck wanted no part of rampage. So make sure you watch the weigh ins and bet accordingly or to back up the beliefs you have already. I might be back to comment on the weigh ins if I see anything again. Good luck.. I can smell the cash already. I picked 7 fights. I am not recommending a parlay this time but I am pretty confident in these picks and the upsets.

Flash Flash

August 24, 2007 Posted by | Chuck Liddell, Gambling, mma, Rampage Jackson, Sean Sherk, ufc, Ultimate Fighter | 4 Comments

UFC 73: Stacked Preview

Compared to the relatively boring UFC 72 card, the UFC 73 fight card is stacked – literally speaking – compared to 72. There are some easy money making opportunities lined up for UFC 73 and I think it is important to throw them into a parlay if some of the odds move more in the right direction. Also, just to throw it out there, I am 3-3 overall for my UFC picks and was 2-0 the last time I predicted.

The two easiest fights to pick:

1) Sherk (-280) vs. Franca (+210) – This is a title fight and I am expecting a solid beatdown. Sherk is one big muscle, hence his nickname (Muscle Shark), and when you take his body/muscle against Franca, a jujitsu fighter and submission guy you have one fighter who is completely neutralized. Franca has no chance of submitting Sherk, maybe by choke, but not likely. Franca will not put him in any type of arm or leg locks. Sherk is far too strong. Sherk also has shown that he can take a beating and keep on ticking (if you do not believe me check out the fight when he won the belt; he was a bloody mess). Also, Franca does not have a good striking style; he tends to throw wild haymakers and will leave himself completely open to controlled jabs and take downs. I would be surprised if this lasts two rounds. Also, you need to listen to Sherk’s interviews; he is very proud and is fighting to get paid to support his family. He has waited a long time to get some respect and fame and now that he has some he wants to build on it and continue to get paid more and more. He will roll in this fight. Also, Sherk is the reason BJ penn does not want to fight at 155 and Pulver wants to drop to 145. Sherk is an animal.

2) Antonio Minotauro Nogueira (-700) vs. Heath Herring (+500) – This one is not really worth discussing and I am expecting a solid Minotauro beat down. I am guessing he wins by choke. I have not been impressed with Herring’s two UFC fights (one was a loss) and I think he is vulnerable to a choke out. I consider Randy Couture to be one of the foremost authorities on MMA fighting and he thinks Minotauro is one of the best submission artists in the world. He had zero opinion on Herring. Enough said. Chalk up an easy win for Minotauro.

There is always a big upset on a UFC card and this week’s upset is:

Rashad Evans (+105) over Tito Ortiz (-135) (This line is moving, last check was -115, -115)- This fight is really hard for me to predict but I am going with Rashad Evans. My one fear is that Tito is a smart man and knows that if he loses this fight he has little to no future left in UFC. However, Tito is very business like. In the past he has hired a publicist, he likes to be seen out in public with his girlfriend, he has acted, he is into selling his clothes. I feel like he is more of a personality that talks a big game but does not have the full compliment of skills that today’s MMA superstars have. In his last 4 fights he beat Forest Griffin by decision in a fight I thought and Forest thought he won, beat Shamrock twice who is an old man and did not pose a challenge and got knocked out by Chuck Liddell. Not so impressive. That brings us to Rashad. Rashad s 15-0 and has been very impressive in his last three fights over Stephan Bonnar, Jason Lambert, and Sean Salmon. Rashad is getting better in each fight and adding something new each time. Just check out this awesome knockout of Salmon.

Take Rashad in this one and get the benefit of him as the underdog (hopefully if you can still find him as the underdog, I think we are starting to move lines here). I think Tito has a chance to win but I think he will go for broke in the first round, not get it done and then Rashad will systematically take him apart. This one might go to decision.

Anderson Silva (-165) vs. Nate Marquardt (+135) – Gonna stay with the favorite on this one and I am picking Silva. The only reason I am not making this an easy money fight is because of Nate Marquardt’s history of fighting boring fights where he takes an opponent down and holds him down and tries to pass guard without inflicting any damage. So in one scenario, and the only scenario where I see Nate winning, is the scenario where he takes down Silva and stalls and holds him down and simply wins the fight on a decision cause he got points on take downs. What I hope happens and what I think really will happen is Silva will simply come out on the attack and will keep constant pressure on Nate just like he did against Rich Franklin. Silva wants to punish people and I think he will remain on the attack while standing or on the ground. Last reason but certainly not least, Marquardt credits his recent success to finding God…I am sure God does not support pounding ones face like a butcher pounds beef…don’t pick the choir boy in this one.

The throw in fight:

Stephan Bonnar (-500) over Mike Nickels (+350) – always take the guy who you know uses performance enhancing drugs. Bonnar is back from his steroid suspension but we know he had the juice running through him.

So this week I am giving you 5 fights. On betus.com right now a 5 fighter $100 parlay pays $458.86. Kaching!!!! Good luck this weekend and let me know what you think. I am confident in my picks this week and ready to continue my roll.

Flash Flash

July 6, 2007 Posted by | Betting, Chuck Liddell, Gambling, mma, Penn, Rashad Evans, Steroids, ufc, Ultimate Fighter | 5 Comments

Ultimate Fighter 5 Finale and Penn vs. Pulver

Just wanteds to throw out to quick predictions regarding the fights tomorrow. Runny and I will actually be in Vegas this weekend throwin down some baseball and UFC bets.

Nate Diaz vs. manny Gamburyan – Not sure you can get any action on this fight yet. I looked online and did not see a line. I am all over Nate Diaz for this fight. Manny has shown that he is explosive in gaining control but not explosive in submitting or even in striking. He simply takes people down and holds them down. When he does this he also leaves himself exposed to choke outs. Nate is a flat out WORKER. his fight versus Gray was insane. He took a beating and kept attacking, throwing strikes whenever he could and also going for submissions every ten seconds. he is an animal and I think he will catch Manny and choke him out. Nate can take a beating and he does not care and will continue to fight and go for submissions. Only way to beat this kid right now is to knock him out cold and I do not think Manny can do it. Hopefully Manny is the favorite and you can make some nice scratch betting Nate.

Pulver vs. Penn – I am torn on this fight. I am a big BJ Penn mark and would love to see him win but I do not like his comments about Pulver or his comments about how he wants ot be one of the biggest stars in the UFC. First, he said he will be friends with Pulver after he puts him into retirement. I doubt Pulver is saying this. Pulver is Little Evil and will not show any mercy and certainly does not like Penn in any way. Second, Penn has always shied away form the limelight and I do not see him as some new mega-star in the UFC. He does not have the charisma. So I want Penn to win but I do not like his demeanor. Runny was saying this was like Liddell/Jackson all over again and that in that fight, Liddell was going to lose as soon as the weigh in. You could just tell. Since Penn is the big favorite at -350, I do not recommend loading up the Brinks truck on this one but I do think Penn will ultimately win because he is an overall better fighter.

Flash Flash

June 22, 2007 Posted by | Chuck Liddell, Gambling, mma, Penn, Rampage Jackson, Sports, ufc, Ultimate Fighter, Winning Picks | 1 Comment