RPJ Betting Syndicate

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2008 NFL Week Four: Free Winning Picks and Chicks

Greetings folks. A decent, but not good, Week Three brought us back a little closer to respectability. However, we know we have a ton of work to do to right the ship. Our NFL season records are as follows: RPJ $yndicate is 3-7, Flash is 2-1 and Runny is 5-7. Still pretty bad, but we ain’t stopping!!!!

Well in keeping with tradition, when we blow we show more picks of hot chicks:

I have a spare hand if you need a replacement!

I have a spare hand if you need a replacement!

I just saw Transformers and I want to transform her panties into my face!

I just saw Transformers and I want to transform her panties into my face!

Here is what we like this week:

RPJ $yndicate Picks

Cardinals @ Jets (-1): The Cards looked awful last week against a Skins team that we think is pretty overrated. The Jets were just as bad against a hungry Chargers team on Monday night. What will give? The key to his game is the Cards and their road woes. They are terrible on the road. They have studs on offense and a decent D. There is no reason they should be Dogs in this game (or their last). Also, look at these facts: Jets are 11-1 ATS as home favorites vs. opponents that are .600 or better and 12-2 ATS off of Monday Night games. Nuff said. Take the Jets -1.

Falcons @ Panthers (-6.5): Don’t be fooled by the Falcons. Although they are 2-1, their two wins were against terrible teams (Lions and Chiefs). Their sole loss was a beatdown against the Bucs. The Panthers are more like the Bucs than the Lions and Chiefs. They will win, and when they win at home they are 44-8 ATS. Also, never take rookie QBs on the road. Take the Panthers -6.5.

Runny Picks

Chargers @ Raiders (+7.5): This pick pains me because I like Lane Kiffin and I think the Raiders are better than they get credit for being. I just don’t think they have enough this week, despite the fact that the Chargers are traveling off of Monday Night (if you are a reader of our blog, you’ll understand the reference and stat). Facts: Raiders are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 at home against the Chargers. This is a lot of points, but Rivers is the best QB in the league right now. Take the Chargers -7.5.

49ers @ Saints (-4): The Niners are off of a dominating win last week at home. They are young and their D seems to be on the right track. However, I am not sold on J.T. O’Sullivan. Plus, they re going on the road against a Saints team that can do some damage on offense. Facts: Niners are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against the Saints and under Nolan, the Niners are 2-13 SU and 4-11 ATS away against non-division teams. I love the Saints in this. Take the Saints -4.

Bills @ Rams (+8): The Rams are lost and Linehan has lost this team. Players are openly stating that they don’t want to play for him and Trent Green is getting the start this week. Terrible. The Bills are loaded and are playing well. Facts: Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Bills and 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS against inning teams under Linehan. This will be bloody. Take the Bills -8.

Flash Flash Picks

I should be 3-0 and I am not bitter about it or anything. I love the backdoor but I hate backdoor covers.

Only one pick for me this week and that is Redskins (+11) at Dallas. This is too many points and I live the ATS numbers.

Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
Redskins are 21-8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC East.

Head-to-Head
Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Underdog is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 meetings.

I do not think the Skins will win but I think they are playing better and can keep this within ten points. Take the Skins with the points!

As always, good luck with your picks.

Runny & Flash

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September 28, 2008 Posted by | Adrian Peterson, Arizona Cardinals, Ass, Atlanta Falcons, Bears, Belichick, Bengals, Betting, Bills, Brett Favre, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Buffalo Bills, Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Chad Pennington, Chargers, Chicago Bears, Chiefs, Cleveland Browns, Colin Cowherd, Colts, Cowboys, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Detroit, Detroit Lions, Dolphins, Eagles, Eric Mangini, ESPN, Falcons, Football, Free NFL Divisional Round Picks, Free NFL Picks, Free NFL Wild Card Picks, Free Super Bowl Picks, Gambling, Giants, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jaguars, Jets, Kansas City, Kansas City Chiefs, Katherine Heigl, Lane Kifin, Lions, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Megan Fox, Miami, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football Picks, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York, New York Giants, New York Jets, NFL, NFL Championship Game, NFL Picks, NY Giants, NY Jets, Oakland Raiders, Panthers, Patriots, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh Steelers, Raiders, Rams, Randy Moss, Ravens, Redskins, Reggie Bush, Roger Goodell, Saints, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seahawks, Seattle, Sports, St. Louis, Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee, Texans, Thong, Titans, Tom brady, Tom Coughlin, Tony Romo, Vegas, Washington Redskins, Winning Picks | 2 Comments

NFL PLAYOFF PICKS: WILD CARD WEEKEND (PART TWO)

The last two games on tap for Wild Car Weekend pit the Giants against the Bucs and the Titans in San Diego against the Chargers. These two games are our favorites so far. We love the lines and the way Vegas has moved the lines all week!! Beware of the trap this time!! Remember, VEGAS KNOWS!!! Here is our take on each:

Giants @ Buccaneers -3: After nearly ending the Pats’ run at perfection last week, the Giants are definately the sexy pick in this one. Eli looked a lot like his big bro and Osi and Strahan played liked men possessed. On the other hand, the Buccaners have been extremely inconsistent as of late-losing their last two to the 49ers and Panthers. Yet, they are the favorites at home.

On paper, the teams are pretty even. The Giants have a a better offense, but the Bucs have a better D. Makes it tough to get an angle with the stats. How about the ATS numbers? Here you go:

GIANTS:

  • Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
  • Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
  • Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
  • Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Giants are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
  • Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
  • Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Giants are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Giants are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
  • Giants are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
  • Giants are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.
  • BUCS:

  • Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
  • Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
  • Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
  • Buccaneers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
  • Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
  • Buccaneers are 14-6-2 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Buccaneers are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Buccaneers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
  • Buccaneers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0.
  • The ATS numbers are pretty close, too, with maybe a slight edge towards the Giants. What gives?

    If you read our stuff, you know the answer to that question….yeap…VEGAS KNOWS. We can’t say that enough. This line opened with the Bucs being only 1 point favorites. However, as the week progressed, most of the money went towards the Giants. In particular, (at the time of this post) nearly 60% of the money is on the Giants to cover and OVER 90% of the money is on them to win outright!! OVER 90% AND THE LINE STILL INCREASED!!! We’ve seen this many times before. This is a trap!! Vegas wants you to keep hammering the Giants. Don’t do it!!

    Vegas knows this game will come down to defense and QB play. As mentioned above, the Bucs have good advantage on D, so they win that match-up. In regards to the QB play, Eli is terrible. He looked good last week against a Pats D that is mediocre, at best. The Bucs D is much better. Much better. Plax won’t be open as much as he was last week. Watch for Ronde Barber to have a good game. We think the Bucs win by double digits. Take the Bucs -3.

    Titans +10 @ Chargers: The Titans surprised us by making the playoffs this year. We admit that we are not fans on Vince Young, but we love the way the Titans play. Despite winning their division with a 11-5 record, the Chargers have had a disappointing season. This team was predicted to win 15 games this year. However, they are rolling right now and LT is amazing. He pretty much saved Norv Turner his job.

    The sexy pick in this game is the Chargers. No one is giving the Titans a chance. At the time of this post, 79% of the money is on the Chargers to cover the spread an nearly all the analysis on TV is about how much the Chargers will roll. After all, the Titans are injured. They have no offensive threats (Vince Young is a game time decision and Roydell Williams is out). The Chargers have a TON of offensive weapons and their D plays lights out.

    However, we are looking past this. On any given Sunday, any team can beat any team. We know Jeff Fisher is telling his team that and he is a master motivator. We also think he is an infinitely better coach than Norv Turner. Fisher always finds away to get it done with no help. Even with his Super Bowl team that nearly beat the then unstoppable Rams, he really had no (We don’t think Eddie George was anywhere near as good as LT) weapons. He still gets it done.

    We think this game will come down to coaching and QB play. We already told you how we feel about the coaches. The key will be the QBs. We think Philip Rivers is a joke and his history (although brief) shows he in not a good playoff QB. He will turn the ball over. Look for Kyle Vanden Bosch and Albert Haynesworth to have big games for the Titans. LT will go nuts for the Chargers. Ultimately, we think the massive injuries the Titans have will slow them down and cost them the game, but we think they will keep it close. Keep in mind that the Titans nearly beat them last month. We love the 10 points. Take the Titans +10.

    January 6, 2008 Posted by | Eli Manning, Free NFL Picks, Free NFL Wild Card Picks, New England Patriots, NFL, NFL Picks, Patriots, San Diego Chargers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee, Titans | 6 Comments

    WEEK 16 NFL PICKS: SUNDAY’S BEST

    A good start to the weekend for us with the Panthers pulling through for us against the Cowboys. With Saturday’s win, our season ATS record stands at 60-47-1. Here is what we like on Sunday:

    Packers @ Bears +8.5: The Bears gave the Pack a surprising beatdown in their match-up earlier this year. The Pack have been dominant since then. Their only blemish was a debacle in Dallas. The Pack won’t make those mistakes again. However, the Bears are hungry to salvage something from this season. Kyle Orton gets the start again and the Bears D knows that the game is in their hands. They love playing Favre. Especially at home. We think they will be amped for this game. The Pack will win, but the Bears D will keep them in it. Plus, the nasty weather in the Windy City will help the Bears. Take the Bears +8.5.

    Texans +7 @ Colts: The Texans have been up and down all year. The Colts are CRUSHED by injuries. They squeaked by the Raiders last week in Oakland. We think their injuries on D will produce the same result this week at home against the Texans. The Texans can score some points. They will score some more this week. Ignore the fact that the home team in this match-up is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings. Take the Texans +7.

    Dolphins @ Patriots -22: Before last week, everyone was looking to this game for a Cinderella story and hoping that a winless Fins team could end the Pats run to perfection. The Ravens made sure that the Fins would not be winless coming into this game last week. The Patriots are going to make sure their run to perfection will stay in play this week. Not only will they win, they will win big. Don’t follow the public in this one. The Pats beat them by 21 in their match-up earlier this season in Miami. They will do better than that on Sunday. Take the Pats -22.

    Redskins @ Vikings -6.5: The Vikings managed to win last Monday night against the Bears despite a ton of turnovers. They will remedy the turnovers this week. The Skins will be without Rocky McIntosh. This is huge. Look for Adrian Peterson to have a big game. Take the Vikings -6.5.

    Falcons @ Cardinals -10: The Falcons are getting players back from injuries while the Cards are pretty banged-up. There were signs of a little turmoil in the Cards loss last week as Kurt Warner blew up on the sidelines at one of his offensive coaches. That said, the Falcons are a joke. Take the Cards -10.

    Jets @ Titans -8.5: With this line and how these teams have played the past few weeks, we would LOVE to take the Jets here. However, the reality is that the Jets are just decimated by injuries. Kellen Clemens was injured last week and is not expected to play. Laveranues Coles is out. That is just too much for this Titans team at home. Take the Titans -8.5.

    Browns -3 @ Bengals: The Bengals have been infuriating to watch this year. Are hearts go out to any Bengals fan. This season must be torture. They are at home this week against their in-state rival. Their last meeting was a huge shoot out. This week will not be the same. The key to this game will be the D’s. It will be a close game. We just think the Browns have more weapons on offense than the Bengals do. Plus, the Bengals D is much worse. Take the Browns -3.

    Good luck with your picks.

    Flash & Runny

    December 23, 2007 Posted by | Adrian Peterson, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Bengals, Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Free NFL Picks, Green Bay Packers, Houston, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Kurt Warner, Kyle Orton, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Tennessee, Titans, Washington Redskins | Leave a comment

    NFL WEEK 15 PICKS

    Another Sunday is upon us and the NFL regular season is winding down. Teams are jockying for playoff spots, 1st week byes and draft positions. Very exciting stuff. Of course the Bungles sucked it on Saturday night to bring our season record to 54-41-1. We are disappointed, but still happy with how our season is going. We know we do our best work on Sundays. With that said, this is what e like Sunday:

    Jags +3 @ Steelers: No guarantees by the Steelers this week as they host the Jags. Big playoff implications in this on. The Jags are playing very sound football right now while the Steelers have been two different teams-brilliant at home and terrible on the road. They are at home this week and they are getting players back from the medical ward. It won’t matter in this one. The jags are banged-up, but they know how to overcome. They will keep it close if not win outright. Take the Jags +3.

    Colts @ Raiders +10.5: The Colts roll into Oaktown to face a young Raiders team. The Colts have looked like a team that is primed for the playoffs-despite the injuries. They are banged-up again for this one. The Raiders were terrible in Green Bay last week. All the ATS numbers point to the Colts covering easy. And, most of the money in Vegas is on the Colts (94% as of the time of this post). That is why we like the Raiders at home. Kiffin grew up watching Dungy. He will have his boys ready. Take the Raiders +10.5

    Ravens -3.5 @ Dolphins: Could there be a worse team than the Fins?!?! Just when you think it could not get any worse, they lose 38-17 to the Bills. There is no relief in sight. The only things they have going for them in this one is that they are at home and the Ravens have a lot of key injuries. We don;t think it will matter in this one. Take the Ravens -3.5.

    Titans -4 @ Chiefs: The Chiefs are a mess. They could be looking at using their 4th string RB this week. That is not good against a solid Tennessee D. The Chiefs just are not a good team right now. They are not well coached, and they are injured. Despite the huge home-field advantage, this all adds up to a Titans cover. Take the Titans -4.

    Falcons +12.5 @ Buccaneers:Don’t get us wrong-the Falcons are terrible. Petrino walking out on them was just another sign that things are not getting any better in Hotlanta anytime soon. That said, 12.5 is too many points. They will rally around each other after Petrino quit on them and keep this game with 12.5. Take the Falcons +12.5.

    Eagles +10 @ Cowboys: The Cowboys return home after a sucker win against the Lions. They had no business winning that one and that game revealed a lot about this team-they are extremely soft on D and very undisciplined on O. They have a lot of talent on both sides of the field, but need a lot of improvement if they want to get through the playoffs. The Linos showed that the Cowboys can be physically dominated with hard hits. The Eagles definitely know how to do that. They will cover if not win outright. Also, keep in mind that the last time the Cowboys had a lucky win like last week was also on the road. It was in Buffalo on Monday night. What happened the following week? They got spanked at home by the Patriots. This will be the Eagles Super Bowl. Nothing will please them more than to beat the Cowboys in Big D. Take the Eagles +10.

    Seahawks -7 @ Panters: The Seahawks are hot right now. They have been decimating teams at home and on the road. They look to continue that play against a struggling Panthers team this week. The injury bug has hit the Panthers particularily hard this year. That does no bode well for them against a hot ‘Hawks team. We think the Seahawks will have too much for them this week. Take the Seahawks -7.

    Jets @ Patriots -21: Another lopsided spread for the Pats. This line actually opened at 24.5 and has dropped. We think it is due to the weather and the fact that a huge majority of the bets in Vegas are on the Jets. We think that is comical. Even with the weather, the Pats are gonna steamroll this Jets team. They have no threats at all. Kellen Clemens has not seen this team in action and the Jets D will not be able to stop the Pats. Belichek despises Mangini and if he was willing to run up the score on Joe Gibbs, what do you think he will do in this one?!?! We don’t think the Jets will even score. Take the Pats -21.

    Redskins @ Giants -5: The Skins are injured and are limping into their match-up with the Giants. Losing Jason Campbell is a HUGE loss. Todd Collins is not answer. The Giants will roll at home. Take the Giants -5.

    9 picks for Sunday! Good luck with your picks!

    Runny & Flash

    December 16, 2007 Posted by | Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, Eagles, Free NFL Picks, Giants, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York, NY Jets, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia, Philly, Pittsbourgh Steelers, Seahawks, Seattle, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee, Titans, Washington Redskins | Leave a comment

    NFL WEEK 14 PICKS

    Another Thursday night winner for us in the Skins-Bears brings our record to 45-36-1. We are getting where we need to be. Week 14 is the week of the road favorite. Generally, in picking NFL games it is usually bad to go with road favorites. However, this week we like a few. Here is what we like for Sunday’s action:

    Vikings -8.5 @ 49ers: This is a lot of points for the Vikings to give on the road. However, they have Adrian Peterson and they are on the road to face a terrible 49ers team. With all the credit that Adrian Peterson gets (all of it is deserved-if this kid does not win the ROY and MVP this year it will be highway robbery), the Vikings D should get some. They are flying under the radar with their play. They will strut their stuff this weekend against the 49ers. Look for heavy doses of Adrian Peterson and a lot of attacks on D. It will be a close cover, but we like the Vikings. Take the Vikings -8.5.

    Cowboys -11 @Lions; OVER/UNDER 50.5: Another heavy road favorite. The Cowboys head north to the Motor City to face a struggling Lions team. Historically, the Lions have done well against the Cowboys. Will the Lions get their 10 wins? Unlikely, but if they do, they need to win this game. They won’t. The Cowboys have had 10 days to prepare for a game that is flying under the public’s radar, but not the radar of the Boys’ D. The Lions SPANKED them last year in Big D. The Boys are looking for payback. T-New and Bradie James have already come out with threats. They are focused and looking for blood. They will cover. Take the Cowboys -11. That said, the Boys D is vulnerable. Especially to the pass. With Roy Williams out for the Lions, it will limit their air attack. It won’t shut it down. The Lions will be able to score. Take the OVER 50.5

    Browns -3.5 @ Jets: Another road favorite. The Browns roll into NY/NJ to face a Jets team fresh off a beatdown of Miami. That beatdown was a fluke. The Jets are not a good team right now and they are hurt. The Browns win easy and cover. Take the Browns -3.5.

    Panthers @ Jags -10.5: This is a lot of points. The Panthers threw up some points last week against the 49ers. However, the 49ers are bad. The Jags are not. They played the Colts close and don’t have as much injuries as the Panthers. We like the Jags to roll. Take the Jags -10.5.

    Rams @ Bengals -9.5: Brock Berlin gets the starting nod for the Rams this week. That’s right…Brock Berlin. We remember him from his U days. He was terrible then. We are giving him no credit this weekend. Despite the Rams having a solid D, and the Bungles being the softest team in the league, we think Cinncy rolls at home. Take the Bungles -9.5.

    Chargers -1 @ Titans: Another road favorite. The Chargers have been TERRIBLE ATS in their past 8 road games. The Titans are a completely different team with Haynesworth back. That said, he is still a little banged-up. He will play, but will his hammy hold-up. We don’t think he will be effective enough to stop LT. The Chargers are playing better and can cover. Take the Chargers -1.

    Steelers @ Patriots -10.5: Probably the game of the week. Nearly EVERYONE thinks the Steelers will be the team to upset the Pats. Every analyst waxes on and on about how good the Steelers will run the ball and how great their D is. However, they are a completely different road team. They lost to the Jets for goodness sakes. The teams they did beat do not have the Pats arsenal, and they have lost to some terrible teams. The Pats haven’t lost to anyone. Also, pay attention to this spread. Despite all the hype and all the money in Vegas going to the Steelers this week, the Steelers are still a double digit dog. Vegas knows. Take the Pats -10.5.

    There you go. Good luck with your picks.

    Runny & Flash

    December 9, 2007 Posted by | 49ers, Bengals, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Free NFL Picks, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, NY Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, Rams, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, St. Pauli Girl, Tennessee, Titans | Leave a comment

    NFL WEEK 12 PICKS

    Greeting and Happy Turkey Day! Hope your holiday went well. Our’s did-great food, great family, great friends and 2-1 on our NFL picks (3-1 if you count the USC beatdown at ASU)!! Brings our record to 36-22-1. That is 62%!! We are gtting better and hope to have the record above 65% ASAP. Here are our picks for Sunday’s action:

    Titans @ Bengals +1.5: The Titans looked terrible on Monday against a mediocre Broncos team. The Bengals have looked bad all season. What will give? The ATS numbers are pretty even. We can’t believe we are saying this, but we like Cinncy. Take the Bungles +1.5.

    Broncos +2 @ Bears: The Broncos looked great last Monday at home. The Bears are a joke. Grossman is a mistake at QB. Shannahan will bring the pressure against him, forcing the typical Grossman mistakes. The Bears D is no where near what it used to be. We like the Broncos to cover and porbably win outright. Take the Broncos +2.

    Seahawks @ Rams +3: The Rams seem to have righted their ship. They are getting their guys back from injury, and they are playing much better. The Seahawks are playing better as well. However, we think the ‘Hawks are not as good as they think. Also, the underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. That is enough for us. This is too many points to give the Rams. Take the Rams +3.

    49ers @ Cardinals -10.5: This ia a lot of points to give, but the 49ers are a joke. The Cards are playing well right now and will look to avenge their week 1 loss in SanFran. We think they roll here. Take the Cards -10.5.

    Ravens +9 @ Chargers: The Chargers are a joke. What the heck happened to this team?!?!?!?!? Norv? Did they believe the hype? Who knows. The Ravens are pretty freakin’ bad, too. However, in a battle of two terrible teams, be like the points. Even on the road. Take the Ravens +9.

    Eagles @ Patriots -24; Over/Under 50.5: You read that right-“-24”!!!!!! Insane amount of points to give in a NFL game. We checked our records and cannot find a line this high for NFL in the past 25 years. However, we think it is legit and not low enough. The Eagles are a debacle. The Pats have shown their goal is to run up the score. 24 points is a lot to give, but we think they win this game by 30. Take the Pats -24. Also, the Pats will hang 50 points on their own. Take the Over 50.5.

    Good luck.

    Runny & Flash

    November 24, 2007 Posted by | 49ers, Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, Bengals, Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Eagles, Free NFL Picks, New England Patriots, NFL, NFL Picks, Philadelphia, Rams, San Diego Chargers, Seahawks, Seattle, St. Louis, Tennessee, Titans | Leave a comment

    NFL WEEK 11 PICKS

    Greetings. Great week last week. Rocked a 6-2 record for week 10 to bring our season record to 30-17-2. That is 61%. We’ll take that all season long. Let’s keep it rollin’. Here is who we like in Week 11:

    Browns -2.5 @ Ravens: We have an Uncle, Moe, who is a die hard Browns fan. Seriously. If you try to argue who the greatest NFL footballer is and say anyone besides Jim Bown, he’ll try to fight you. Even during the holidays. When Art Modell moved the Browns to Baltimore, it broke his heart. He stopped watching footbal until the Brownies were back. To this day, if you mention Art Modell within his earshot he goes nuts. In honor of our Uncle Moe, we will call this game the Uncle Moe Bowl and we LOVE the Brownies. Bet them heavy. It is a Eva Mendes bet (bet 5 Times your typical bet) for us. The money seems to be going towards the Ravens, which scares us. However, the Browns spanked them earlier this year and they are playing better now. The Ravens are even worse. Also, take into account that the Browns are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with losing records and the Ravens are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 overall. We think the Browns cover. Take the Browns -2.5.

    Chargers @ Jags -3: This line screams to take the Chargers, which is exactly what the betting public is doing. Afterall, the Chargers are fresh off a beatdown of the Colts last Sunday. However, that win was deceptive-most of the scoring was from special teams. For the 2nd week in a row, the Chargers offense was offensive. They come into J’Ville to play a stacked J’Ville D and the Jags are getting David Garrard back. The Jags cover. Take the Jags -3.

    Raiders +4.5 @ Vikings: The Vikings are not the same without Adrian Peterson (to state the obvious). The Raiders come in with an underrated D and Daunte Culpepper returning to his old stomping ground. Brad Childress is not a good coach. Lane Kifin is. The Vikings QB problem will hurt them in this one. We think the Raiders keep it close and win outright (consider the money line @ +180). Take the Raiders +4.5.

    Redskins @ Cowboys -11: The Skins are decimated by injuires on their D. Without Sean Taylor, Romo and TO will go nuts. The Boys roll in this one. Take the Cowboys -11.

    Buccaneers -3 @ Falcons: This game is about the starting QBs. Garcia is better than any of the clowns the Falcons bring to the table. Garcia will play enough to cover. Take the Buccaneers -3.

    Titans @ Broncos (O/U 38): A battle of teams that have young QBs. They both make a lot of mistakes. The defenses will capitalize on them and keep the score low. Take the Under 38.

    Patriots @ Bills +16: We like this game for 4 reasons: 1). The Pats did not cover their last time on the road, 2). The weather is forecasted to be bad, 3). Most of the money in Vegas is on the Pats and 4). The Bills have nothing to lose. To us, that adds up to a Bills team that will shock the Pats and cover the points. Take the Bills +16.

    Rams -3 @ 49ers: The 49ers are just plain bad. Terrible. Alex Smith is whining about his shoulder. He is bad. The Rams are not good either, but they won last week and have momentum. They will keep it going. Take the Rams -3.

    There’s our picks for week 11. 8 games!!! Good luck.

    Runny & Flash

    November 18, 2007 Posted by | 49ers, Adrian Peterson, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Brad Childress, Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Eva Mendes, Free NFL Picks, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jeff Garcia, Lane Kifin, New England Patriots, NFL, NFL Picks, Oakland Raiders, Rams, San Diego Chargers, St. Louis, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee, Titans, Tony Romo, Washington Redskins | Leave a comment

    NFL WEEK 6 PICKS: TAKE ‘EM TO THE BANK

    Had a disappointing 3-2 week last week (damn you Romo!!) bringing our season record to 12-6. We will improve on that record. No better time than right now to rip it up. We like 6 this week. Here are our locks for Week 6:

    Rams +9.5 @ Ravens: We are staring with the Brinks Truck bet for the week. This line is comical. There is not a team in the NFL that the Ravens can beat by more than 9. Not one. The Rams have a very underrated D. Although they are extremely banged-up, they have enough to keep this game under 9.5. We would not be surprised if the Rams win outright. Take the Rams +9.5.

    Titans +3 @ Buccaneers: Both teams are intriguing. TB has been much better than we thought they would be. Garcia was a great pick-up for them. Young has been better than we thought as well (even though his stats are terrible). But, TB is banged up big time. We also love the Titans’ D. Jeff Fischer is a brilliant coach. Titans D coupled with the Buc’s offensive injuries means this game will be close. Not convinced that the Buc’s D can contain Young’s running. Take the Titans +3.

    Saints +6.5 @ Seahawks: The Ain’ts screwed us last week. There is just no legit explanation for a team falling from grace like thaey have. Unreal. As bad as they have been, 6.5 is just too much points to give. The Ain’ts may keep losing, but they will keep it within 6.5. Take the Saints +6.5.

    Skins +3 @ Packers: Don’t believe the Packers/Favre hype. They are good, but every announcer and the NFL kisses Favre’s packer way too much. Don’t get us wrong, we love Favre and the Packers are much better than we thought they would be. However, the Skins are solid this year. And, for as much talk there is about the Packers D and O, the Skins D is actually much better and their O is only slightly behind GB’s.  Don’t be surprised if the Packers lose 2 in a row. Take the Skins +3.

    Panthers @ Cards -4.5: Cards have been good to us this year. Love the return of Warner. Hopefully that means we’ll be seeing more of his Roxette wife. We can only hope she now has a mullet. The Panthers are decimated by injuries. There is a chance Vinny testavede will make an appearence this week.  We love the Cards. Take the Cards -4.5.

    Patriots @ Cowboys +5.5: This line has been all over the place. The majority of the money and bets in Vegas are on the Pats. At first glance the Pats win this outright. The Boys looked terrible last week against the Bills, and Brady looks like he is playing himself on Madden ’08. Where has Randy Moss been?!?!?! However, the thing to pay attention to is the Pats have played no one good yet. Sure they played the Chargers, but that was when the Chargers were terrible. They’ve really had no challenges. Even last week in Cleveland, the Brownies kept that game close until the end and they have no D or O. The Boys are not the Browns, and they can dfeinately keep it close all game. The Pats red zone D is terrible (I believe that everytime any opponent has reached the Pats 20 yard line the Pats have been unable to stop a TD). The Boys will exploit this. Belichek will take Whitten and TO away from Romo.  The Boys will know this as well. Look for a big game from Patrick Crayton to have a big game as Romo will go to him early and often. For the Boys D, it could be a long day. Moss owns Dallas. Especially in big games. TNew and Anthony Henry will have their work cut out for them. Moss will be doubled. That means look for a big game from Wes Welker. It will be high scoring, but we think the Boys D and the home field will give them the edge. Don’t believe the Pats hype. The media loves them as much as they do Bret Favre. The Boys win this game outright. Take the Boys +5.5.

    Those are our 6 locks for Week 6. Keep it rollin’. Good luck with your picks.

    Runny & Flash

    October 12, 2007 Posted by | Belichick, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Cowboys, Jason Whitten, Jeff Garcia, Kurt Warner, Packers, Panthers, Patrick Crayton, Patriots, Rams, Randy Moss, Ravens, Redskins, Saints, Seahawks, Seattle, Terrell Owens, Titans, Tom brady, Tony Romo, Vinny Testaverde, Wes Welker | 3 Comments

    NFL Preview: A gambler’s intro to making money

    The Vegas odds on the NFL season have finally arrived and we wanted to point out to you some of the simple techniques we use to consistently make money. Lets take a look at the over/under win total for each team:

    NFC East
    Dallas – 9
    Philly – 9
    NYG- 8
    Skins – 7.5

    South
    Carolina – 9
    NO – 9
    ATL – 7.5
    TB – 7

    North
    Bears – 10
    GB – 7.5
    MINN – 6.5
    Det – 6

    West
    Seattle – 9
    SF – 7.5
    St. Louis – 7.5
    Zona – 7

    AFC East
    NE – 11.5
    NYJ – 8
    Miami – 7
    Bills – 6

    South
    Indy – 10.5
    Jacksonville – 9
    TENN – 7
    Houston – 6.5

    North
    Baltimore – 9
    Pitt – 9
    Cincy – 9
    Cle – 5.5

    West
    SD – 10.5
    Denver – 9.5
    KC – 7.5
    Oak 5

    Simply put…Vegas is saying that the Patriots are the best team at 11.5 wins and the Raiders are the worst team at 5 wins. Why are the over/under win totals important? These early lines are the backbone for how Vegas is going to set their point lines this year.

    Lets break down these win totals from a historic perspective:

    NFL teams that won 11 or more games
    2006=5
    2005=10
    2004=6
    2003=7
    2002=5
    2001=8
    6 year average – 6.83333

    Why is this important? Well on average for the upcoming 2007 NFL season there will be 6.8 teams that win 11 or more games. Vegas right now is only saying that the Pats will win more than 11 games and has the Colts and Chargers at 10.5, close but not 11. Plain and simple numbers are saying that there should be 6.8 teams that win 11 or more games and Vegas only has one team identified that can do this. Even if you take the low numbers of 5 teams from 2002 and 2006, that still means there are 4 chances to beat these numbers.

    NFL Teams that won 5 games or less in a season
    2006= 6
    2005=10
    2004=7
    2003=10
    2002=6
    2001=7
    year average – 7.66666

    This stat is even more telling. Vegas has only one team at 5 wins and this stat says that on average, over the last 6 years, there will be 7.6 teams that win 5 games or less. Again this is creating a money making opportunity to find the 6-7 other teams besides the Raiders that will win only 5 games or less. These will be easy under bets.

    So to start off this betting year we have identified 11 betting opportunities where we feel Vegas is off by 3 games under or over.

    Lets look at the over opportunites. We have spotted 5 opportunities to beat Vegas:

    1) Bears – The Bears have an easy schedule and play in a weak division. We think they will win 14 games and Vegas only thinks they will win 10.

    2) Saints – The Saints are also in an easy division and Vegas has them tied with Carolina with 9 wins. We think this is a joke and the Saints ar emuch better and will win the conference and come in with 13 wins.

    3) Rams – Vegas has this high flying time under .500 at 7.5. C’mon now. S. Jackson will tear it up this year and the offense will be tough to stop with Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael as new additions. Rams win 11 games and the division.

    4) Bengals – The Bengals play in a tough division but we think they have a favorable schedule and will win 13 games. Vegas has them at 9.

    5) Chargers – We think the Chargers are the best team in the AFC and play in an easy division. This team will be on a mission. We see them at 15-1 and Vegas has them only at 10.5 wins.

    Now for the fun stuff and finding the teams that will stink up the joint this year. It is amazing to us that Vegas only put one team at 5 wins. We see 6 money making opportunities for betting unders.

    1) Vikings – Vegas puts this team at 6.5. We are laughing hysterically at this pick. Go look for yourself and find even 3 games you think they will win. We think this is the worst team in the league and will be lucky to win more than one game.

    2) Atlanta – This speaks for itself. This team is a mess following the Vick legal mess. Vegas thinks they win 7.5 games and we think it looks more like 2. Go find 8 wins on this teams schedule. WE DARE YOU!!!!!

    3) Tampa Bay – Vegas puts this team at 7 wins. Lets take a look….No RBs, no WRs, a gay QB and lame duck coach. 7 wins…..we think it will be more like 4.

    4) Miami – The Trent Green experiment will go as sour as a Cleo Lemon. Vegas put this win total at 7 wins. We sharted ourselves laughing so hard that the experts think they can win 7 games. We think they will win one game.

    5) Houston – Vegas put this team at 6.5 wins. The Matt Schaub experiment showed us all that he is a born loser. He might have put up some stats in the past but he sure knows how to lose and he will not enjoy throwing behind that line that ran Carr out of town. They will be lucky to win more than 3 games.

    6) KC Chiefs – This team is the Raiders with Larry Johnson and a worse Defense. Vegas thinks they can win 7.5 games and we think 7.5 is the number of coaching mistakes Herm Edwards will average during each game. Chiefs might win 2 games this year.

    So there you have it. We outlined where we think Vegas has made mistakes and we are putting our money where our predictions are. The Rams are probably the hottest pick going right now so you probably want to jump on that one before the lines move too much.

    Flash Flash and Runny

    August 25, 2007 Posted by | 49ers, Atlanta Falcons, Bears, Bengals, Betting, Bills, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs, Colts, Cowboys, Dolphins, Eagles, Falcons, Gambling, Giants, Jaguars, Jets, Lions, NFL, Packers, Panthers, Patriots, Raiders, Rams, Ravens, Redskins, Saints, Seahawks, Steelers, Texans, Titans, Uncategorized, Vegas, Vick, Vikings | 1 Comment