RPJ Betting Syndicate

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NFL WEEK 4 2008 PICKS: MONDAY NIGHT MADNESS!!!!!

Greetings folks. As a group, we went 6-0 yesterday on our picks. That’s right…6-0!!! You can’t beat that and we knew we would recover. We are about to go 7-0 and this is what I like:

Runny Pick

Ravens @ Steelers (-6): Flash is not rollin’ with me on this one. This game did not pass one of his models, but I feel very good about it with mine. Another great Monday Night match-up of two bitter division rivals. These teams play each other hard and usually knock the snot out of one another. Both teams limp into this one with the Steelers being banged-up on the offensive side and the Ravens being hobbled on D. What will give?

There are two things that stand out to me about this game. The first is that this is Joe Flacco’s first road start. He hasn’t left Baltimore yet, and he is about to be thrown into the fire. The Steelers will give him a ton of looks he has never seen before. Flacco has looked good, but this game is different. He is not going up against the Bungles and the disappointing Browns. My take is never trust a rookie QB in a rivalry game on the road on Monday Night.

Which leads me to the next thing that stands out: the line. For bitter division rivals that pound each other, this line is huge. The Ravens have the league’s best D. They are 2-0 and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the Steelers. No way this line should be that high. However, it is and it yet again points to VEGAS KNOWS!!! I think this game is a trap. I’m not falling for it. Take the Steelers -6.

Good luck with your picks.

Runny

September 29, 2008 Posted by | Baltimore Ravens, Bengals, Betting, Browns, ESPN, Free NFL Picks, Gambling, Monday Night Football Picks, NFL Picks, Pittsburgh Steelers, Sports, Steelers, Winning Picks | 10 Comments

2008 NFL Week Four: Free Winning Picks and Chicks

Greetings folks. A decent, but not good, Week Three brought us back a little closer to respectability. However, we know we have a ton of work to do to right the ship. Our NFL season records are as follows: RPJ $yndicate is 3-7, Flash is 2-1 and Runny is 5-7. Still pretty bad, but we ain’t stopping!!!!

Well in keeping with tradition, when we blow we show more picks of hot chicks:

I have a spare hand if you need a replacement!

I have a spare hand if you need a replacement!

I just saw Transformers and I want to transform her panties into my face!

I just saw Transformers and I want to transform her panties into my face!

Here is what we like this week:

RPJ $yndicate Picks

Cardinals @ Jets (-1): The Cards looked awful last week against a Skins team that we think is pretty overrated. The Jets were just as bad against a hungry Chargers team on Monday night. What will give? The key to his game is the Cards and their road woes. They are terrible on the road. They have studs on offense and a decent D. There is no reason they should be Dogs in this game (or their last). Also, look at these facts: Jets are 11-1 ATS as home favorites vs. opponents that are .600 or better and 12-2 ATS off of Monday Night games. Nuff said. Take the Jets -1.

Falcons @ Panthers (-6.5): Don’t be fooled by the Falcons. Although they are 2-1, their two wins were against terrible teams (Lions and Chiefs). Their sole loss was a beatdown against the Bucs. The Panthers are more like the Bucs than the Lions and Chiefs. They will win, and when they win at home they are 44-8 ATS. Also, never take rookie QBs on the road. Take the Panthers -6.5.

Runny Picks

Chargers @ Raiders (+7.5): This pick pains me because I like Lane Kiffin and I think the Raiders are better than they get credit for being. I just don’t think they have enough this week, despite the fact that the Chargers are traveling off of Monday Night (if you are a reader of our blog, you’ll understand the reference and stat). Facts: Raiders are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 at home against the Chargers. This is a lot of points, but Rivers is the best QB in the league right now. Take the Chargers -7.5.

49ers @ Saints (-4): The Niners are off of a dominating win last week at home. They are young and their D seems to be on the right track. However, I am not sold on J.T. O’Sullivan. Plus, they re going on the road against a Saints team that can do some damage on offense. Facts: Niners are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against the Saints and under Nolan, the Niners are 2-13 SU and 4-11 ATS away against non-division teams. I love the Saints in this. Take the Saints -4.

Bills @ Rams (+8): The Rams are lost and Linehan has lost this team. Players are openly stating that they don’t want to play for him and Trent Green is getting the start this week. Terrible. The Bills are loaded and are playing well. Facts: Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Bills and 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS against inning teams under Linehan. This will be bloody. Take the Bills -8.

Flash Flash Picks

I should be 3-0 and I am not bitter about it or anything. I love the backdoor but I hate backdoor covers.

Only one pick for me this week and that is Redskins (+11) at Dallas. This is too many points and I live the ATS numbers.

Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
Redskins are 21-8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC East.

Head-to-Head
Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Underdog is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 meetings.

I do not think the Skins will win but I think they are playing better and can keep this within ten points. Take the Skins with the points!

As always, good luck with your picks.

Runny & Flash

September 28, 2008 Posted by | Adrian Peterson, Arizona Cardinals, Ass, Atlanta Falcons, Bears, Belichick, Bengals, Betting, Bills, Brett Favre, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Buffalo Bills, Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Chad Pennington, Chargers, Chicago Bears, Chiefs, Cleveland Browns, Colin Cowherd, Colts, Cowboys, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Detroit, Detroit Lions, Dolphins, Eagles, Eric Mangini, ESPN, Falcons, Football, Free NFL Divisional Round Picks, Free NFL Picks, Free NFL Wild Card Picks, Free Super Bowl Picks, Gambling, Giants, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jaguars, Jets, Kansas City, Kansas City Chiefs, Katherine Heigl, Lane Kifin, Lions, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Megan Fox, Miami, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football Picks, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York, New York Giants, New York Jets, NFL, NFL Championship Game, NFL Picks, NY Giants, NY Jets, Oakland Raiders, Panthers, Patriots, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh Steelers, Raiders, Rams, Randy Moss, Ravens, Redskins, Reggie Bush, Roger Goodell, Saints, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seahawks, Seattle, Sports, St. Louis, Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee, Texans, Thong, Titans, Tom brady, Tom Coughlin, Tony Romo, Vegas, Washington Redskins, Winning Picks | 2 Comments

NFL WEEK 16 PICKS: THURSDAY NIGHT DELIGHT

Sweet 16 is upon us!!! We are lovin’ the NFL right now. All these games!!!! Love it. Love it. Love it. Week 16 kicks off with the Steelers in The Lou to face the Rams. Before we get in to our analysis, let’s talk about our record. With our win Monday night, our season record ATS is 59-46-1 (56%). Not too shabby, but we know we are better than that. Here is our take on Thursday’s match-up:

Steelers @ Rams +7.5: We absolutely LOVE this game!!! The Steelers have been a tale of two teams all year-brilliant at home, terrible on the road. They are completely different on the road. Will their fortunes change this week against a Rams team that has been depleted by injuries? We don’t think so. We love the Rams in this game, and there are four HUGE reasons why.

First, the Rams have a very solid and very underrated D. They know how to get at QB’s. They know how to cover and they know how to hit. This does not bode well for the Steelers. With the exception of Willie Parker, there is no threat on the Steelers that can out match the Rams. We think Roethlisberger is overrated. The Rams will hold them down enough to keep it within a TD.

Second, the Rams have Bulger and Jackson back. The Rams have been terrible on offense all year, but with these two guys back, they are a different team. Plus, Bulger is from Western PA so there is no doubt that he wants to decimate the Steelers. The Rams will be able to score enough on the Steelers to keep this close. Pay close attention to the  Polamalu-Holt match-up.

Third, as mentioned above, the Steelers are terrible on the road (1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games). The Rams will be ready for them. 7.5 points is A LOT of points to give a home team. Especially a home team with a good D.

Finally, our favorite reason why we LOVE the Rams to cover in this game-VEGAS KNOWS. We’ve said it hundreds of times in this blog and we think about EVERY time we look at spreads. Vegas knows and its sole goal is to take your money. It is pretty simple. The spreads are designed to get you to take the bait. The obvious key is to not take it by spotting the traps. Sometimes the traps are tought to see. Other times, like now, it is pretty easy. The trap in this game is that the line opened the week at -9.5. Since then, approximately 87% of the public’s money is on the Steelers. The trap is that this line has DROPPED!! Vegas wants people to keep pressing the Steelers. DON’T DO IT!! Avoid the trap and roll with us on the Rams.

Take the Rams +7.5 

December 19, 2007 Posted by | Free NFL Picks, NFL, NFL Picks, Pittsburgh Steelers, Rams, St. Louis, Steelers | Leave a comment

NFL WEEK 8 PICKS: Lock ‘Em Up

We are looking for a rebound after a 2-2 Week 7. Our record to date is a pedestrian 15-11-2. No better time than Week 8 to lock ’em up and get on the right track. That said, here’s who we like:

Colts -7 @ Panthers: Back-to-back road games for the Colts on the short week. The Colts admitted that they don’t know the Panthers too well (last played is 2003). Marvin Harrison is listed as a game time decision. This should translate into a Panthers cover. However, the last time we checked the Colts still had Manning and the Panthers are starting Vinny Testaverde. We love us some Vinny, but not this week. The Panthers are just too banged-up and the Colts just have too many weapons. Take the Colts -7.

Steelers -4 @ Bengals: The Steelers have been terrible ATS on the road. However, they have a great opportunity to right their ship this week in Cinncy against the Bungles. The Bungles are a joke. The Steelers scored a lot of points last week against a solid Broncos D in Mile High. They may score 10,000 against the Bungles. Look for a high scoring game. Take the Steelers -4.

Bills +3 @ Jets: This is our favorite game of the week. The Bills are scrappers. They will make it 2 in a row this week. Take the Bills +3.

Texans @ Chargers -9: This a lot of points to give/get. The Chargers will be playing at home in front of the terrible back drop of the wild fires that have terrorized SoCal. We are with them. It will be a great win for their fans. Take the Chargers -9.

Saints -2.5 @ 49ers: We hate the Saints. They have screwed us this year more than any other team. They are just too good to be this bad. The 49ers still have not shown improvement. As much as we hate to do it, we are rollin’ with the Ain’ts again. Take the Saints -2.5.

 There you go-5 locks for the week. Good luck with your picks.

 Runny & Flash

October 28, 2007 Posted by | 49ers, Bengals, Bills, Broncos, Chargers, Colts, Jets, Panthers, Peyton Manning, Saints, Steelers, Texans, Vinny Testaverde | 2 Comments

WEEK 7 NFL PICKS: WE ARE BETTER THAN NOTRE DAME

Flash and I just got back from South Bend to watch the SC_ND game. We don’t think we have ever seen a worse NCAA team. Ever. ND is sooooooooooo very bad. The score should have been worse than 38-0. They are that bad. But, we digress….

 On the the issue at hand-WEEK 7 of the NFL!!! We are off to a so-so start. 13-9-2 on the season. Not bad, but not up to our standards. That said, let the games begin!! Here are our locks for this week:

Falcons @ Saints -8: Saints seemed to have righted the ship last week. Falcons are terrible. This is a lot of points, but Atlanta is just very bad. Take the Saints -8.

Bears +5.5 @ Eagles: The Bears are playing better. The Eagles are not as good has everyone thinks. Take the points. The Bears will win outright. Take the Bears +5.5.

Ravens @ Bills +3: Ravens beat up on the Rams last week and the Bills are off the bye and the heartbreaker against Dallas. The Bills are much better than people give them credit for and the Ravens are not as good as people think. We love the Bills are home. Take the Bills +3.

Steelers -3.5 @ Broncos: Intriguing game. Normally we would like the home dog in this game. Especially given that Shannahan is an animal after the bye. However, we think the Burgh is legit and Denver is just not that good. Close game, but they will cover. Take the Steelers -3.5.

 That’s it. Good luck with your picks.

 Runny & Flash

October 21, 2007 Posted by | Bears, Bills, Broncos, Eagles, Falcons, Notre Dame, Ravens, Saints, Steelers, USC, USC Trojans | 12 Comments

NFL WEEK 4 PICKS: LOCK IT LIKE ITS HOT!!!!

Mo’ money, mo’ money, mo’ money!!!!! Finally got off the schneid last week. Thank you Cowboys and Rex Grossman!!!! Our 2-1 record last week brought us to 5-4 on the season. Not where we should be, but still winning. Let’s get into this week’s locks (there are 4):

Rams @ Cowboys -13: Normally this would be too many points to give. However, we are riding the Cowboys and the Rams are going down faster than Brittney Spears at a construction site on payday. They are terrible. Bulger has been bad and is banged-up. No Orlando Pace. No Stephen Jackson. This equals a rams beatdown. The Boys will score often. The Rams won’t. Take the Boys -13.

Raiders +4 @ Dolphins: We like what Kifin is doing in Oaktown. He is bringing a winning culture back to the Raiders and they are playing hard. They should have beat Denver. They won a good one against Cleveland last week. Miami’s D is laying it thick, but their O is terrible. They will probably beat the Raiders, but not by more than a field goal. We think the Raiders can win outright though. Take the Raiders +4.

Broncos @ Colts -10: This game would be different in Denver. But, it is in Indy and the Broncos are overrated. The worse 2-1 team in football.  Peyton has too many weapons for Champ to cover. Colts roll and cover easily. Take the Colts -10.

Steelers @ Cards +6: The ‘Burgh is good, but Whisenhunt knows this team well. He will get his team ready.  We like the home dog. 6 points is just too much to give. Take the Cards +6.

Those are our locks for the week. Good luck with your picks. Flash and I are off to the Bone!! For those of your from Upstate NY, you know what I’m talking about!!!

Flash & Runny

September 29, 2007 Posted by | Betting, Broncos, Cardinals, Colts, Cowboys, Dolphins, NFL, NFL Picks, Raiders, Rams, Steelers | 2 Comments

NFL Week One Picks

Greetings. We only like two games this week in the NFL.

Take the Steelers and give the 5 points against the Browns.

Take the Rams and give the 1.5 against the Panthers.

 Good luck with your picks.

Flash & Runny

September 9, 2007 Posted by | Betting, Browns, Gambling, NFL, Panthers, Rams, Steelers, Uncategorized, Winning Picks | Leave a comment

NFL Preview: A gambler’s intro to making money

The Vegas odds on the NFL season have finally arrived and we wanted to point out to you some of the simple techniques we use to consistently make money. Lets take a look at the over/under win total for each team:

NFC East
Dallas – 9
Philly – 9
NYG- 8
Skins – 7.5

South
Carolina – 9
NO – 9
ATL – 7.5
TB – 7

North
Bears – 10
GB – 7.5
MINN – 6.5
Det – 6

West
Seattle – 9
SF – 7.5
St. Louis – 7.5
Zona – 7

AFC East
NE – 11.5
NYJ – 8
Miami – 7
Bills – 6

South
Indy – 10.5
Jacksonville – 9
TENN – 7
Houston – 6.5

North
Baltimore – 9
Pitt – 9
Cincy – 9
Cle – 5.5

West
SD – 10.5
Denver – 9.5
KC – 7.5
Oak 5

Simply put…Vegas is saying that the Patriots are the best team at 11.5 wins and the Raiders are the worst team at 5 wins. Why are the over/under win totals important? These early lines are the backbone for how Vegas is going to set their point lines this year.

Lets break down these win totals from a historic perspective:

NFL teams that won 11 or more games
2006=5
2005=10
2004=6
2003=7
2002=5
2001=8
6 year average – 6.83333

Why is this important? Well on average for the upcoming 2007 NFL season there will be 6.8 teams that win 11 or more games. Vegas right now is only saying that the Pats will win more than 11 games and has the Colts and Chargers at 10.5, close but not 11. Plain and simple numbers are saying that there should be 6.8 teams that win 11 or more games and Vegas only has one team identified that can do this. Even if you take the low numbers of 5 teams from 2002 and 2006, that still means there are 4 chances to beat these numbers.

NFL Teams that won 5 games or less in a season
2006= 6
2005=10
2004=7
2003=10
2002=6
2001=7
year average – 7.66666

This stat is even more telling. Vegas has only one team at 5 wins and this stat says that on average, over the last 6 years, there will be 7.6 teams that win 5 games or less. Again this is creating a money making opportunity to find the 6-7 other teams besides the Raiders that will win only 5 games or less. These will be easy under bets.

So to start off this betting year we have identified 11 betting opportunities where we feel Vegas is off by 3 games under or over.

Lets look at the over opportunites. We have spotted 5 opportunities to beat Vegas:

1) Bears – The Bears have an easy schedule and play in a weak division. We think they will win 14 games and Vegas only thinks they will win 10.

2) Saints – The Saints are also in an easy division and Vegas has them tied with Carolina with 9 wins. We think this is a joke and the Saints ar emuch better and will win the conference and come in with 13 wins.

3) Rams – Vegas has this high flying time under .500 at 7.5. C’mon now. S. Jackson will tear it up this year and the offense will be tough to stop with Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael as new additions. Rams win 11 games and the division.

4) Bengals – The Bengals play in a tough division but we think they have a favorable schedule and will win 13 games. Vegas has them at 9.

5) Chargers – We think the Chargers are the best team in the AFC and play in an easy division. This team will be on a mission. We see them at 15-1 and Vegas has them only at 10.5 wins.

Now for the fun stuff and finding the teams that will stink up the joint this year. It is amazing to us that Vegas only put one team at 5 wins. We see 6 money making opportunities for betting unders.

1) Vikings – Vegas puts this team at 6.5. We are laughing hysterically at this pick. Go look for yourself and find even 3 games you think they will win. We think this is the worst team in the league and will be lucky to win more than one game.

2) Atlanta – This speaks for itself. This team is a mess following the Vick legal mess. Vegas thinks they win 7.5 games and we think it looks more like 2. Go find 8 wins on this teams schedule. WE DARE YOU!!!!!

3) Tampa Bay – Vegas puts this team at 7 wins. Lets take a look….No RBs, no WRs, a gay QB and lame duck coach. 7 wins…..we think it will be more like 4.

4) Miami – The Trent Green experiment will go as sour as a Cleo Lemon. Vegas put this win total at 7 wins. We sharted ourselves laughing so hard that the experts think they can win 7 games. We think they will win one game.

5) Houston – Vegas put this team at 6.5 wins. The Matt Schaub experiment showed us all that he is a born loser. He might have put up some stats in the past but he sure knows how to lose and he will not enjoy throwing behind that line that ran Carr out of town. They will be lucky to win more than 3 games.

6) KC Chiefs – This team is the Raiders with Larry Johnson and a worse Defense. Vegas thinks they can win 7.5 games and we think 7.5 is the number of coaching mistakes Herm Edwards will average during each game. Chiefs might win 2 games this year.

So there you have it. We outlined where we think Vegas has made mistakes and we are putting our money where our predictions are. The Rams are probably the hottest pick going right now so you probably want to jump on that one before the lines move too much.

Flash Flash and Runny

August 25, 2007 Posted by | 49ers, Atlanta Falcons, Bears, Bengals, Betting, Bills, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs, Colts, Cowboys, Dolphins, Eagles, Falcons, Gambling, Giants, Jaguars, Jets, Lions, NFL, Packers, Panthers, Patriots, Raiders, Rams, Ravens, Redskins, Saints, Seahawks, Steelers, Texans, Titans, Uncategorized, Vegas, Vick, Vikings | 1 Comment