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UFC 74: Let’s make some more money!!!!!

Just to brag and put it out there…I was 4-0-1 with my picks during UFC 73 and am 7-3-1 on the season. There are some great fights and money making opportunities for UFC 74 so lets make some more coinage. KACHING!!!!

Babalu -280 versus Heath +210 – I am surprised this line is this close. Heath was terrible against Machida in his last fight and has a lot to prove. I think babalu will be too tough for him. Sobral’s back is against the wall since he has lost his last two. I think Sobral knows what he needs to do to regain his competitive spirit and he is up to the task.

Huerta -400 versus Crane +300 – Both of these guys come in undefeated. Here I am going with the guy who has the most experience in the UFC Octagon and that is Huerta. This is Crane’s UFC debut and he will not be ready for the attention.

Grove -240 versus Cote +190 – Never bet on a french canadian. I am taking Grove all the way. Cote is also 1-4 in the UFC. He does not know how to prepare for these fights and will lose. Grove is on a 4 fight win streak and Da Spyder is gonna beat some ass in this one and is 8 inches taller. Down with the French.

Frank Mir -185 versus Hardonk +145 – I refuse to bet on anybody from Hollland. frank Mir all the way.

Joe Stevenson -300 versus Pellegrino +220 – Stevenson will win this easily. He has surrounded himself with top notch fighters to train and to remove the label that he is a bad trainer and is lazy. He is 3-0 in his last three fights, one by cut and two by submission. With Sherk’s suspension, the belt might be up for grabs and Dana White indicated he might give Stevenson a shot at it if he can impress in this fight. Stevenson has been through a lot and I think he has matured and is ready to take this fight with ease.

GSP -260 versus Koschek +200 – I am all over Koschek in this fight for two reasons. One, and this is very important, never ever bet on a French Canadian. That should be self explanatory. Two, Koschek is really jacked up for this fight. Just look at this grouping of quotes:

According to Koscheck, that toughness shows up on fight night. “I think that the mind is 99 percent of it,” he said. “Because if you believe more than that person, and you feel like you want to just keep going and keep going and your mind keeps pushing you, I believe you’ll win. At this level, especially with me and George, because we’re probably two of the best athletes in the UFC, you’re gonna get to see a lot of speed, a lot of power, a lot of technique, and a lot of skill. We both have that, so now it’s a question of who’s going to have the mental edge. Who’s gonna break first, and who’s gonna impose their will on the other person?” “If you look at the past history of Georges St-Pierre, he said the reason he lost against Matt Hughes was because he was fighting his idol,” recalls Koscheck. “You don’t come out and say that. And after the loss he had against Matt Serra, he came out and said he didn’t train, and then came back and said he did train hard and he made a mistake, that type of thing. From the outside looking in, you would obviously think something’s wrong with this kid if he’s making up those kind of stories and that type of thing. But now, I’m glad it’s out because it’s just an advantage for me because I’m mentally tough. I come from a wrestling background so the mental toughness aspect is there, so it’s just a matter of getting my skills to the level that I need to to compete with those guys.” “I don’t give two s**ts about Georges St-Pierre,” said Koscheck without hesitation. “That’s where you’re wrong. Georges is a nice guy, but he’s trying to take food off my table. I’m trying to build a career here. This is something that I want and he’s trying to take that away from me. I don’t care if he’s a nice guy – I’ve got to kick his ass and it’s just that plain and simple. I’ve got to believe that until this fight’s over – &#$# Georges St-Pierre, he’s trying to take my dream away and that’s becoming a UFC champion. I’m not going to let him take that away from me. Maybe after the fight’s over, I’ll believe differently, but right now, my mindset is that he’s trying to take food off my table and take a dream away from me, so he’s the enemy right now as far as I’m concerned.”

That pretty much sums it up. Koschek is here to beat some ass and to not make excuses. The workouts he put himself through were insane and he is coming to fight. Take Koschek as the underdog and you will be really happy.

Couture +100 versus Gonzaga -130 – This one is pretty fascinating and should be an interesting fight. I see it going one of two ways. One is a quick knockout of Couture just like he did with Cro Cop and the other is Couture grindong down Gonzaga over the course of a long fight and eventually pounding him out. So for this one I think the most likely scenario is Couture grinding down Gonzaga and here is why:

– Couture has been in this position before. He has fought as the main card in a UFC event, he has been champion, he understands how to balance his training versus his press commitments versus all the distractions Vegas has to offer. this is all new to Gonzaga and he does not know how to handle it. Couture knows he has to be highly disciplined, knows he is a better wrestler and knows he has to stay away from Gonzaga’s Jiu jitsu and he knows he can do this. Couture has shown before that he can control the fight to go the way he wants it to.

I do think Gonzaga is super talented and does match up great in this fight. I simply think Couture is the smarter fighter, has been here before and therefore will be the better prepared fighter.

So there are my picks. If you are going to bet these fights one thing you have to do is to watch the weigh ins. The weigh ins tell a lot about a fighter’s mindset, how he looks, how he acts, is he calm, etc… the most recent example is Rampage versus Chuck. You could tell at weigh in that Chuck wanted no part of rampage. So make sure you watch the weigh ins and bet accordingly or to back up the beliefs you have already. I might be back to comment on the weigh ins if I see anything again. Good luck.. I can smell the cash already. I picked 7 fights. I am not recommending a parlay this time but I am pretty confident in these picks and the upsets.

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August 24, 2007 Posted by | Chuck Liddell, Gambling, mma, Rampage Jackson, Sean Sherk, ufc, Ultimate Fighter | 4 Comments