RPJ Betting Syndicate

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2008 NFL Week Four: Free Winning Picks and Chicks

Greetings folks. A decent, but not good, Week Three brought us back a little closer to respectability. However, we know we have a ton of work to do to right the ship. Our NFL season records are as follows: RPJ $yndicate is 3-7, Flash is 2-1 and Runny is 5-7. Still pretty bad, but we ain’t stopping!!!!

Well in keeping with tradition, when we blow we show more picks of hot chicks:

I have a spare hand if you need a replacement!

I have a spare hand if you need a replacement!

I just saw Transformers and I want to transform her panties into my face!

I just saw Transformers and I want to transform her panties into my face!

Here is what we like this week:

RPJ $yndicate Picks

Cardinals @ Jets (-1): The Cards looked awful last week against a Skins team that we think is pretty overrated. The Jets were just as bad against a hungry Chargers team on Monday night. What will give? The key to his game is the Cards and their road woes. They are terrible on the road. They have studs on offense and a decent D. There is no reason they should be Dogs in this game (or their last). Also, look at these facts: Jets are 11-1 ATS as home favorites vs. opponents that are .600 or better and 12-2 ATS off of Monday Night games. Nuff said. Take the Jets -1.

Falcons @ Panthers (-6.5): Don’t be fooled by the Falcons. Although they are 2-1, their two wins were against terrible teams (Lions and Chiefs). Their sole loss was a beatdown against the Bucs. The Panthers are more like the Bucs than the Lions and Chiefs. They will win, and when they win at home they are 44-8 ATS. Also, never take rookie QBs on the road. Take the Panthers -6.5.

Runny Picks

Chargers @ Raiders (+7.5): This pick pains me because I like Lane Kiffin and I think the Raiders are better than they get credit for being. I just don’t think they have enough this week, despite the fact that the Chargers are traveling off of Monday Night (if you are a reader of our blog, you’ll understand the reference and stat). Facts: Raiders are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 at home against the Chargers. This is a lot of points, but Rivers is the best QB in the league right now. Take the Chargers -7.5.

49ers @ Saints (-4): The Niners are off of a dominating win last week at home. They are young and their D seems to be on the right track. However, I am not sold on J.T. O’Sullivan. Plus, they re going on the road against a Saints team that can do some damage on offense. Facts: Niners are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against the Saints and under Nolan, the Niners are 2-13 SU and 4-11 ATS away against non-division teams. I love the Saints in this. Take the Saints -4.

Bills @ Rams (+8): The Rams are lost and Linehan has lost this team. Players are openly stating that they don’t want to play for him and Trent Green is getting the start this week. Terrible. The Bills are loaded and are playing well. Facts: Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Bills and 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS against inning teams under Linehan. This will be bloody. Take the Bills -8.

Flash Flash Picks

I should be 3-0 and I am not bitter about it or anything. I love the backdoor but I hate backdoor covers.

Only one pick for me this week and that is Redskins (+11) at Dallas. This is too many points and I live the ATS numbers.

Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
Redskins are 21-8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC East.

Head-to-Head
Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Underdog is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 meetings.

I do not think the Skins will win but I think they are playing better and can keep this within ten points. Take the Skins with the points!

As always, good luck with your picks.

Runny & Flash

September 28, 2008 Posted by | Adrian Peterson, Arizona Cardinals, Ass, Atlanta Falcons, Bears, Belichick, Bengals, Betting, Bills, Brett Favre, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Buffalo Bills, Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Chad Pennington, Chargers, Chicago Bears, Chiefs, Cleveland Browns, Colin Cowherd, Colts, Cowboys, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Detroit, Detroit Lions, Dolphins, Eagles, Eric Mangini, ESPN, Falcons, Football, Free NFL Divisional Round Picks, Free NFL Picks, Free NFL Wild Card Picks, Free Super Bowl Picks, Gambling, Giants, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jaguars, Jets, Kansas City, Kansas City Chiefs, Katherine Heigl, Lane Kifin, Lions, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Megan Fox, Miami, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football Picks, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York, New York Giants, New York Jets, NFL, NFL Championship Game, NFL Picks, NY Giants, NY Jets, Oakland Raiders, Panthers, Patriots, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh Steelers, Raiders, Rams, Randy Moss, Ravens, Redskins, Reggie Bush, Roger Goodell, Saints, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seahawks, Seattle, Sports, St. Louis, Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee, Texans, Thong, Titans, Tom brady, Tom Coughlin, Tony Romo, Vegas, Washington Redskins, Winning Picks | 2 Comments

NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF PICKS: WEEKEND OF THE ‘DOG-DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE!!!!!

Greetings!! The 2nd round of the playoffs kicks off this afternoon. This weekend has some GREAT match-ups. We are lovin’ this!!! Let’s start with the stats: for the regular season, we held a 62-60-1 record and for the playoffs, we are 0-4. We now both those records are bad and not worth posting. It is not stopping us though because we know what lies ahead. This is definitely the weekend of the underdog. ALL of these lines scream for you to take every ‘dog. Vegas is begging you to do it-DON’T!!!! Here is our take on the Divisional Round:

Seahawks @ Packers -7.5: The Seahawks return to Lambeau in the playoffs for the first time since the infamous OT claim “We want the ball and we are gonna score” line. That game did not end well for the Seahawks. Will this one?

The keys to answer that question lie with the defenses for both teams and the incredible home field advantage the Packers have in this game. Can the Seahawks overcome Lambeau and the Packers D? We don’t think so.

No doubt the Packers are clearly the  better team. Vegas thinks so, which is really all that matters. They are rested and at home. They have an incredible D line and they are able to generate sacks without the help of their linebackers (Packers had 35 sacks on the season-30.5 came from D linemen). The Seahawks were not as good (45 teams sacks-29 by D linemen). This is a tremendous advantage. This means that the Packers can pressure the QB without bringing extra defenders-defenders that can drop back in pass coverage. This does not bode well for a Seahawks offense that is already banged-up. The Packers secondary will get a couple picks. Aaron Kampman will have a HUGE game.

What about Favre against the Seahawks D? During the regular season, the Seahawks were ranked 15th in the NFL. Last week, they nearly lost to Todd Collins (the game was MUCH closer than the score). Bret Favre is not Todd Collins. He will be able to move the ball. The Packers will be able to run all day. We LOVE the Packers in this game. Go heavy. We think they win by 10. Take the Packer -7.5.

Jags @ Pats -13: This is the game everyone is talking about. We have to admit that back as early as week 6, we thought if the Jags got the Pats in the playoffs they could beat them. They are a physical team with an OUTSTANDING running game. Looking at the games in which the Pats nearly lost, it was due to solid running and very physical defensive play. That is what most of the betting public thinks, too.

Don’t believe the hype!! We love the Jags and hate the Pats, so this pick is hurting us. However, look at the Steelers game last week. The Jags D lost an 18 points lead in the 2nd half. Garrard came back down to earth. We saw a Jags team that could not blitz effectively (we saw them blitz 3 times-every time they did, the Steelers beat them for a TD). You cannot beat the Pats without pressuring Brady. Can’t happen.

The Jags will use Rashean Mathis (and help) to negate Moss. The last team that took that approach and wasn’t able to blitz were the Skins. That game ended 52-7. Also, don’t forget that the Jags also have a rookie (though a good one) playing FS. For all the talk that the Pats don’t have a good D and cannot stop the run, the Pats gave up only 98.1 yards per game on the ground. Not great, but not bad either. They have had 13 days to prepare. They will be ready.

We don’t think this game is close. We think the Pats will get up by 14 early and keep pouring it on. Once they do, the Jags running game will be out the window. We think the Pats win by 20. Take the Pats -13.

Good luck! A post for tomorrow’s games will be out later tonight.

Runny & Flash

January 12, 2008 Posted by | Free NFL Divisional Round Picks, Free NFL Picks, Free NFL Wild Card Picks, Green Bay Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars, New England Patriots, NFL, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Seattle | 2 Comments

NFL PLAYOFF PICKS: WILD CARDS ARE IN THE WEEKEND (PART ONE)!!!!

Just as the NFL regular season and the college football season rolls to an end, the glorious tournament know as the NFL Playoffs kicks right into gear!!! We love this time of year! Teams sell out in last ditch efforts to squeak into the post season (i.e., the Skins and Titans) while others teams dominate from wire-to-wire and coast in (i.e., the Pats and Boys). Whatever team tickles your fancy, there is plenty of drama and info that needs to go into the handicapping. Luckily for you, that is why we are here! Our season record for the regular season stands at 62-60-1. Very pedestrian and very much like the teams mentioned above who squeaked in. However, like the Skins and Titans, we are in and ready to go. Let the games begin!!!

Here are our take on the Wild Card games:

Skins +3.5 @ Seahawks: The Skins travel to Seattle to kick-off the Wild Card weekend. The Skins have undoubtedly rallied around their fallen teammate and have played some inspired football as of late. A few weeks ago, probably everyone outside of the DC area would have punched you in the liver if you told them the Skins would make the playoffs. They are playing lights out right now. How about Todd Collins?!?!?! If you would have told the same person that he would be the QB leading the charge, I’m sure you would have earned yourself and punch in the neck, too. All punches aside, the Skins are a force to be reckoned with right now.

The Skins have covered and won outright their last 4 games. Two of those games were on the road against their hated NFC East rival NY Giants and a super hot (at the time) Vikings team. Looking past those games, the Skins lost quite a few (lost their previous 5 out 0f 6). Included in those games was the Decimation Bowl where the Pats hung 52 on them. That Pats game aside, the Skins average margin of loss in those games was only 5 points. Not too shabby.

The Seahawks have stumbled as of late. They lost a shootout against a terrible Falcons team in Week 17, granted the Seahawks had nothing to win or lose in that game. However, they have a great passing game and have a HUGE homefield advantage. It is an advantage that cannot be overlooked.

Right now, our analysis calls this a toss-up. Each team has advantages. Here are some ATS numbers for you:

SKINS:

  • Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
  • Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.
  • Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
  • Redskins are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
  • Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
  • Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in January.
  • Redskins are 19-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • ‘HAWKS:

  • Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
  • Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
  • Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
  • Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on field turf.
  • Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
  • Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
  • Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
  • Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
  • Both teams have impressive ATS numbers. Very impressive. So, what gives?

    The key is to first ask THE question. If you read our stuff, you will know what we are talking about. Vegas set this line at 3.5. it opened at -5, but has settled down to -3.5. The line dropped due to the heavy action on the Skins money line. Typically, home field advantage is worth about 3 points. So, for a line at -5 it typically means that Vegas thinks Seattle is only a 2 point better team if this was on a neutral field. For these two teams, we agree. We don’t think there are any traps in this game.

    To get our winner, we look to the match-ups. Statistically, the teams are pretty close in nearly every category. The key match-up will be the Hawks passing attack against the Skins secondary. No doubt the Skins will shut down the Hawks run. They will have to pass to win. This means it will come down to Hasslebeck against Landry, Springs, Smoot and Dougty. We think the Skins are up to the challenge. Without the running game, the Skins secondary will eat the Hawks alive.

    We also think the Skins are playing out of their minds right now and are not happy with just making the playoffs. They are hungry and they are playing for #21. Plus, they played in the NFC East which is a MUCH tougher division than the NFC West. Not even close. So, even-though the stats are similar, they went about completely different ways of getting them. The Skins played the two other playoff teams twice (Boys and Giants) as well as the Eagles. The Hawks played the 49ers twice. Terrible.

     We think the Skins cover and win outright. We love the points. Take the Skins +3.5.

    Jags -2.5 @ Steelers: The Jags have been amazing!! It is about time Fred Taylor got some credit!!! They roll into the ‘Burgh for the 2nd time in a month to face the Steelers. In their last meeting, the Jags pulled off the upset, winning 29-22. No doubt the Steelers are awesome at home, however, the Jags are no fluke. Neither was their win.

    Here are some ATS numbers for you:

    JAGS:

    JAC are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.

  • JAC are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • STEELERS: 

  • PIT are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • HEAD-TO-HEAD:

    Home team is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 meetings.

    Pretty good stats for the Steelers. However, we just think the Jags roll again. The Steelers are banged-up, but the Jags just punish teams. We also think the Jags QB will play better and is less apt to make mistakes. Turnovers will be key in this game and we think the Jags will win this battle. Take the Jags -2.5.

    Good luck!

    Runny & Flash

    January 5, 2008 Posted by | Free NFL Picks, Free NFL Wild Card Picks, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jaguars, NFL, NFL Picks, Pittsburgh Steelers, Seahawks, Seattle | 2 Comments

    NFL WEEK 15 PICKS

    Another Sunday is upon us and the NFL regular season is winding down. Teams are jockying for playoff spots, 1st week byes and draft positions. Very exciting stuff. Of course the Bungles sucked it on Saturday night to bring our season record to 54-41-1. We are disappointed, but still happy with how our season is going. We know we do our best work on Sundays. With that said, this is what e like Sunday:

    Jags +3 @ Steelers: No guarantees by the Steelers this week as they host the Jags. Big playoff implications in this on. The Jags are playing very sound football right now while the Steelers have been two different teams-brilliant at home and terrible on the road. They are at home this week and they are getting players back from the medical ward. It won’t matter in this one. The jags are banged-up, but they know how to overcome. They will keep it close if not win outright. Take the Jags +3.

    Colts @ Raiders +10.5: The Colts roll into Oaktown to face a young Raiders team. The Colts have looked like a team that is primed for the playoffs-despite the injuries. They are banged-up again for this one. The Raiders were terrible in Green Bay last week. All the ATS numbers point to the Colts covering easy. And, most of the money in Vegas is on the Colts (94% as of the time of this post). That is why we like the Raiders at home. Kiffin grew up watching Dungy. He will have his boys ready. Take the Raiders +10.5

    Ravens -3.5 @ Dolphins: Could there be a worse team than the Fins?!?! Just when you think it could not get any worse, they lose 38-17 to the Bills. There is no relief in sight. The only things they have going for them in this one is that they are at home and the Ravens have a lot of key injuries. We don;t think it will matter in this one. Take the Ravens -3.5.

    Titans -4 @ Chiefs: The Chiefs are a mess. They could be looking at using their 4th string RB this week. That is not good against a solid Tennessee D. The Chiefs just are not a good team right now. They are not well coached, and they are injured. Despite the huge home-field advantage, this all adds up to a Titans cover. Take the Titans -4.

    Falcons +12.5 @ Buccaneers:Don’t get us wrong-the Falcons are terrible. Petrino walking out on them was just another sign that things are not getting any better in Hotlanta anytime soon. That said, 12.5 is too many points. They will rally around each other after Petrino quit on them and keep this game with 12.5. Take the Falcons +12.5.

    Eagles +10 @ Cowboys: The Cowboys return home after a sucker win against the Lions. They had no business winning that one and that game revealed a lot about this team-they are extremely soft on D and very undisciplined on O. They have a lot of talent on both sides of the field, but need a lot of improvement if they want to get through the playoffs. The Linos showed that the Cowboys can be physically dominated with hard hits. The Eagles definitely know how to do that. They will cover if not win outright. Also, keep in mind that the last time the Cowboys had a lucky win like last week was also on the road. It was in Buffalo on Monday night. What happened the following week? They got spanked at home by the Patriots. This will be the Eagles Super Bowl. Nothing will please them more than to beat the Cowboys in Big D. Take the Eagles +10.

    Seahawks -7 @ Panters: The Seahawks are hot right now. They have been decimating teams at home and on the road. They look to continue that play against a struggling Panthers team this week. The injury bug has hit the Panthers particularily hard this year. That does no bode well for them against a hot ‘Hawks team. We think the Seahawks will have too much for them this week. Take the Seahawks -7.

    Jets @ Patriots -21: Another lopsided spread for the Pats. This line actually opened at 24.5 and has dropped. We think it is due to the weather and the fact that a huge majority of the bets in Vegas are on the Jets. We think that is comical. Even with the weather, the Pats are gonna steamroll this Jets team. They have no threats at all. Kellen Clemens has not seen this team in action and the Jets D will not be able to stop the Pats. Belichek despises Mangini and if he was willing to run up the score on Joe Gibbs, what do you think he will do in this one?!?! We don’t think the Jets will even score. Take the Pats -21.

    Redskins @ Giants -5: The Skins are injured and are limping into their match-up with the Giants. Losing Jason Campbell is a HUGE loss. Todd Collins is not answer. The Giants will roll at home. Take the Giants -5.

    9 picks for Sunday! Good luck with your picks!

    Runny & Flash

    December 16, 2007 Posted by | Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, Eagles, Free NFL Picks, Giants, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York, NY Jets, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia, Philly, Pittsbourgh Steelers, Seahawks, Seattle, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee, Titans, Washington Redskins | Leave a comment

    NFL WEEK 12 PICKS

    Greeting and Happy Turkey Day! Hope your holiday went well. Our’s did-great food, great family, great friends and 2-1 on our NFL picks (3-1 if you count the USC beatdown at ASU)!! Brings our record to 36-22-1. That is 62%!! We are gtting better and hope to have the record above 65% ASAP. Here are our picks for Sunday’s action:

    Titans @ Bengals +1.5: The Titans looked terrible on Monday against a mediocre Broncos team. The Bengals have looked bad all season. What will give? The ATS numbers are pretty even. We can’t believe we are saying this, but we like Cinncy. Take the Bungles +1.5.

    Broncos +2 @ Bears: The Broncos looked great last Monday at home. The Bears are a joke. Grossman is a mistake at QB. Shannahan will bring the pressure against him, forcing the typical Grossman mistakes. The Bears D is no where near what it used to be. We like the Broncos to cover and porbably win outright. Take the Broncos +2.

    Seahawks @ Rams +3: The Rams seem to have righted their ship. They are getting their guys back from injury, and they are playing much better. The Seahawks are playing better as well. However, we think the ‘Hawks are not as good as they think. Also, the underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. That is enough for us. This is too many points to give the Rams. Take the Rams +3.

    49ers @ Cardinals -10.5: This ia a lot of points to give, but the 49ers are a joke. The Cards are playing well right now and will look to avenge their week 1 loss in SanFran. We think they roll here. Take the Cards -10.5.

    Ravens +9 @ Chargers: The Chargers are a joke. What the heck happened to this team?!?!?!?!? Norv? Did they believe the hype? Who knows. The Ravens are pretty freakin’ bad, too. However, in a battle of two terrible teams, be like the points. Even on the road. Take the Ravens +9.

    Eagles @ Patriots -24; Over/Under 50.5: You read that right-“-24”!!!!!! Insane amount of points to give in a NFL game. We checked our records and cannot find a line this high for NFL in the past 25 years. However, we think it is legit and not low enough. The Eagles are a debacle. The Pats have shown their goal is to run up the score. 24 points is a lot to give, but we think they win this game by 30. Take the Pats -24. Also, the Pats will hang 50 points on their own. Take the Over 50.5.

    Good luck.

    Runny & Flash

    November 24, 2007 Posted by | 49ers, Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, Bengals, Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Eagles, Free NFL Picks, New England Patriots, NFL, NFL Picks, Philadelphia, Rams, San Diego Chargers, Seahawks, Seattle, St. Louis, Tennessee, Titans | Leave a comment

    NFL WEEK 10 EXTRA!! 49ers vs. Seahawks – Two Bets!!!

    Went 5-1 yesterday and we like tonight’s game. We received confirmation that the weather in Seattle is bad, Alexander is not playing and Nolan’s (49ers coach) dad passed away. This has brutally boring written all over it. We see no points and 9 points are too many to give in the NFL when you are not the Pats.

    Take SF +9.

    Take The UNDER 37.

    Good luck.

    Runny & Flash

    November 12, 2007 Posted by | 49ers, Monday Night Football Picks, NFL, NFL Picks, Seahawks | 3 Comments

    NFL WEEK 6 PICKS: TAKE ‘EM TO THE BANK

    Had a disappointing 3-2 week last week (damn you Romo!!) bringing our season record to 12-6. We will improve on that record. No better time than right now to rip it up. We like 6 this week. Here are our locks for Week 6:

    Rams +9.5 @ Ravens: We are staring with the Brinks Truck bet for the week. This line is comical. There is not a team in the NFL that the Ravens can beat by more than 9. Not one. The Rams have a very underrated D. Although they are extremely banged-up, they have enough to keep this game under 9.5. We would not be surprised if the Rams win outright. Take the Rams +9.5.

    Titans +3 @ Buccaneers: Both teams are intriguing. TB has been much better than we thought they would be. Garcia was a great pick-up for them. Young has been better than we thought as well (even though his stats are terrible). But, TB is banged up big time. We also love the Titans’ D. Jeff Fischer is a brilliant coach. Titans D coupled with the Buc’s offensive injuries means this game will be close. Not convinced that the Buc’s D can contain Young’s running. Take the Titans +3.

    Saints +6.5 @ Seahawks: The Ain’ts screwed us last week. There is just no legit explanation for a team falling from grace like thaey have. Unreal. As bad as they have been, 6.5 is just too much points to give. The Ain’ts may keep losing, but they will keep it within 6.5. Take the Saints +6.5.

    Skins +3 @ Packers: Don’t believe the Packers/Favre hype. They are good, but every announcer and the NFL kisses Favre’s packer way too much. Don’t get us wrong, we love Favre and the Packers are much better than we thought they would be. However, the Skins are solid this year. And, for as much talk there is about the Packers D and O, the Skins D is actually much better and their O is only slightly behind GB’s.  Don’t be surprised if the Packers lose 2 in a row. Take the Skins +3.

    Panthers @ Cards -4.5: Cards have been good to us this year. Love the return of Warner. Hopefully that means we’ll be seeing more of his Roxette wife. We can only hope she now has a mullet. The Panthers are decimated by injuries. There is a chance Vinny testavede will make an appearence this week.  We love the Cards. Take the Cards -4.5.

    Patriots @ Cowboys +5.5: This line has been all over the place. The majority of the money and bets in Vegas are on the Pats. At first glance the Pats win this outright. The Boys looked terrible last week against the Bills, and Brady looks like he is playing himself on Madden ’08. Where has Randy Moss been?!?!?! However, the thing to pay attention to is the Pats have played no one good yet. Sure they played the Chargers, but that was when the Chargers were terrible. They’ve really had no challenges. Even last week in Cleveland, the Brownies kept that game close until the end and they have no D or O. The Boys are not the Browns, and they can dfeinately keep it close all game. The Pats red zone D is terrible (I believe that everytime any opponent has reached the Pats 20 yard line the Pats have been unable to stop a TD). The Boys will exploit this. Belichek will take Whitten and TO away from Romo.  The Boys will know this as well. Look for a big game from Patrick Crayton to have a big game as Romo will go to him early and often. For the Boys D, it could be a long day. Moss owns Dallas. Especially in big games. TNew and Anthony Henry will have their work cut out for them. Moss will be doubled. That means look for a big game from Wes Welker. It will be high scoring, but we think the Boys D and the home field will give them the edge. Don’t believe the Pats hype. The media loves them as much as they do Bret Favre. The Boys win this game outright. Take the Boys +5.5.

    Those are our 6 locks for Week 6. Keep it rollin’. Good luck with your picks.

    Runny & Flash

    October 12, 2007 Posted by | Belichick, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Cowboys, Jason Whitten, Jeff Garcia, Kurt Warner, Packers, Panthers, Patrick Crayton, Patriots, Rams, Randy Moss, Ravens, Redskins, Saints, Seahawks, Seattle, Terrell Owens, Titans, Tom brady, Tony Romo, Vinny Testaverde, Wes Welker | 3 Comments

    NFL Preview: A gambler’s intro to making money

    The Vegas odds on the NFL season have finally arrived and we wanted to point out to you some of the simple techniques we use to consistently make money. Lets take a look at the over/under win total for each team:

    NFC East
    Dallas – 9
    Philly – 9
    NYG- 8
    Skins – 7.5

    South
    Carolina – 9
    NO – 9
    ATL – 7.5
    TB – 7

    North
    Bears – 10
    GB – 7.5
    MINN – 6.5
    Det – 6

    West
    Seattle – 9
    SF – 7.5
    St. Louis – 7.5
    Zona – 7

    AFC East
    NE – 11.5
    NYJ – 8
    Miami – 7
    Bills – 6

    South
    Indy – 10.5
    Jacksonville – 9
    TENN – 7
    Houston – 6.5

    North
    Baltimore – 9
    Pitt – 9
    Cincy – 9
    Cle – 5.5

    West
    SD – 10.5
    Denver – 9.5
    KC – 7.5
    Oak 5

    Simply put…Vegas is saying that the Patriots are the best team at 11.5 wins and the Raiders are the worst team at 5 wins. Why are the over/under win totals important? These early lines are the backbone for how Vegas is going to set their point lines this year.

    Lets break down these win totals from a historic perspective:

    NFL teams that won 11 or more games
    2006=5
    2005=10
    2004=6
    2003=7
    2002=5
    2001=8
    6 year average – 6.83333

    Why is this important? Well on average for the upcoming 2007 NFL season there will be 6.8 teams that win 11 or more games. Vegas right now is only saying that the Pats will win more than 11 games and has the Colts and Chargers at 10.5, close but not 11. Plain and simple numbers are saying that there should be 6.8 teams that win 11 or more games and Vegas only has one team identified that can do this. Even if you take the low numbers of 5 teams from 2002 and 2006, that still means there are 4 chances to beat these numbers.

    NFL Teams that won 5 games or less in a season
    2006= 6
    2005=10
    2004=7
    2003=10
    2002=6
    2001=7
    year average – 7.66666

    This stat is even more telling. Vegas has only one team at 5 wins and this stat says that on average, over the last 6 years, there will be 7.6 teams that win 5 games or less. Again this is creating a money making opportunity to find the 6-7 other teams besides the Raiders that will win only 5 games or less. These will be easy under bets.

    So to start off this betting year we have identified 11 betting opportunities where we feel Vegas is off by 3 games under or over.

    Lets look at the over opportunites. We have spotted 5 opportunities to beat Vegas:

    1) Bears – The Bears have an easy schedule and play in a weak division. We think they will win 14 games and Vegas only thinks they will win 10.

    2) Saints – The Saints are also in an easy division and Vegas has them tied with Carolina with 9 wins. We think this is a joke and the Saints ar emuch better and will win the conference and come in with 13 wins.

    3) Rams – Vegas has this high flying time under .500 at 7.5. C’mon now. S. Jackson will tear it up this year and the offense will be tough to stop with Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael as new additions. Rams win 11 games and the division.

    4) Bengals – The Bengals play in a tough division but we think they have a favorable schedule and will win 13 games. Vegas has them at 9.

    5) Chargers – We think the Chargers are the best team in the AFC and play in an easy division. This team will be on a mission. We see them at 15-1 and Vegas has them only at 10.5 wins.

    Now for the fun stuff and finding the teams that will stink up the joint this year. It is amazing to us that Vegas only put one team at 5 wins. We see 6 money making opportunities for betting unders.

    1) Vikings – Vegas puts this team at 6.5. We are laughing hysterically at this pick. Go look for yourself and find even 3 games you think they will win. We think this is the worst team in the league and will be lucky to win more than one game.

    2) Atlanta – This speaks for itself. This team is a mess following the Vick legal mess. Vegas thinks they win 7.5 games and we think it looks more like 2. Go find 8 wins on this teams schedule. WE DARE YOU!!!!!

    3) Tampa Bay – Vegas puts this team at 7 wins. Lets take a look….No RBs, no WRs, a gay QB and lame duck coach. 7 wins…..we think it will be more like 4.

    4) Miami – The Trent Green experiment will go as sour as a Cleo Lemon. Vegas put this win total at 7 wins. We sharted ourselves laughing so hard that the experts think they can win 7 games. We think they will win one game.

    5) Houston – Vegas put this team at 6.5 wins. The Matt Schaub experiment showed us all that he is a born loser. He might have put up some stats in the past but he sure knows how to lose and he will not enjoy throwing behind that line that ran Carr out of town. They will be lucky to win more than 3 games.

    6) KC Chiefs – This team is the Raiders with Larry Johnson and a worse Defense. Vegas thinks they can win 7.5 games and we think 7.5 is the number of coaching mistakes Herm Edwards will average during each game. Chiefs might win 2 games this year.

    So there you have it. We outlined where we think Vegas has made mistakes and we are putting our money where our predictions are. The Rams are probably the hottest pick going right now so you probably want to jump on that one before the lines move too much.

    Flash Flash and Runny

    August 25, 2007 Posted by | 49ers, Atlanta Falcons, Bears, Bengals, Betting, Bills, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs, Colts, Cowboys, Dolphins, Eagles, Falcons, Gambling, Giants, Jaguars, Jets, Lions, NFL, Packers, Panthers, Patriots, Raiders, Rams, Ravens, Redskins, Saints, Seahawks, Steelers, Texans, Titans, Uncategorized, Vegas, Vick, Vikings | 1 Comment