RPJ Betting Syndicate

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2008 NFL Week Four: Free Winning Picks and Chicks

Greetings folks. A decent, but not good, Week Three brought us back a little closer to respectability. However, we know we have a ton of work to do to right the ship. Our NFL season records are as follows: RPJ $yndicate is 3-7, Flash is 2-1 and Runny is 5-7. Still pretty bad, but we ain’t stopping!!!!

Well in keeping with tradition, when we blow we show more picks of hot chicks:

I have a spare hand if you need a replacement!

I have a spare hand if you need a replacement!

I just saw Transformers and I want to transform her panties into my face!

I just saw Transformers and I want to transform her panties into my face!

Here is what we like this week:

RPJ $yndicate Picks

Cardinals @ Jets (-1): The Cards looked awful last week against a Skins team that we think is pretty overrated. The Jets were just as bad against a hungry Chargers team on Monday night. What will give? The key to his game is the Cards and their road woes. They are terrible on the road. They have studs on offense and a decent D. There is no reason they should be Dogs in this game (or their last). Also, look at these facts: Jets are 11-1 ATS as home favorites vs. opponents that are .600 or better and 12-2 ATS off of Monday Night games. Nuff said. Take the Jets -1.

Falcons @ Panthers (-6.5): Don’t be fooled by the Falcons. Although they are 2-1, their two wins were against terrible teams (Lions and Chiefs). Their sole loss was a beatdown against the Bucs. The Panthers are more like the Bucs than the Lions and Chiefs. They will win, and when they win at home they are 44-8 ATS. Also, never take rookie QBs on the road. Take the Panthers -6.5.

Runny Picks

Chargers @ Raiders (+7.5): This pick pains me because I like Lane Kiffin and I think the Raiders are better than they get credit for being. I just don’t think they have enough this week, despite the fact that the Chargers are traveling off of Monday Night (if you are a reader of our blog, you’ll understand the reference and stat). Facts: Raiders are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 at home against the Chargers. This is a lot of points, but Rivers is the best QB in the league right now. Take the Chargers -7.5.

49ers @ Saints (-4): The Niners are off of a dominating win last week at home. They are young and their D seems to be on the right track. However, I am not sold on J.T. O’Sullivan. Plus, they re going on the road against a Saints team that can do some damage on offense. Facts: Niners are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against the Saints and under Nolan, the Niners are 2-13 SU and 4-11 ATS away against non-division teams. I love the Saints in this. Take the Saints -4.

Bills @ Rams (+8): The Rams are lost and Linehan has lost this team. Players are openly stating that they don’t want to play for him and Trent Green is getting the start this week. Terrible. The Bills are loaded and are playing well. Facts: Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Bills and 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS against inning teams under Linehan. This will be bloody. Take the Bills -8.

Flash Flash Picks

I should be 3-0 and I am not bitter about it or anything. I love the backdoor but I hate backdoor covers.

Only one pick for me this week and that is Redskins (+11) at Dallas. This is too many points and I live the ATS numbers.

Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
Redskins are 21-8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC East.

Head-to-Head
Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Underdog is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 meetings.

I do not think the Skins will win but I think they are playing better and can keep this within ten points. Take the Skins with the points!

As always, good luck with your picks.

Runny & Flash

September 28, 2008 Posted by | Adrian Peterson, Arizona Cardinals, Ass, Atlanta Falcons, Bears, Belichick, Bengals, Betting, Bills, Brett Favre, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Buffalo Bills, Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Chad Pennington, Chargers, Chicago Bears, Chiefs, Cleveland Browns, Colin Cowherd, Colts, Cowboys, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Detroit, Detroit Lions, Dolphins, Eagles, Eric Mangini, ESPN, Falcons, Football, Free NFL Divisional Round Picks, Free NFL Picks, Free NFL Wild Card Picks, Free Super Bowl Picks, Gambling, Giants, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jaguars, Jets, Kansas City, Kansas City Chiefs, Katherine Heigl, Lane Kifin, Lions, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Megan Fox, Miami, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football Picks, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York, New York Giants, New York Jets, NFL, NFL Championship Game, NFL Picks, NY Giants, NY Jets, Oakland Raiders, Panthers, Patriots, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh Steelers, Raiders, Rams, Randy Moss, Ravens, Redskins, Reggie Bush, Roger Goodell, Saints, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seahawks, Seattle, Sports, St. Louis, Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee, Texans, Thong, Titans, Tom brady, Tom Coughlin, Tony Romo, Vegas, Washington Redskins, Winning Picks | 2 Comments

NFL WEEK TWO Free Winning Picks: NO PLACE TO GO BUT UP!!

Greetings folks. If you followed us last week, you took a bad beating. We did, but we have had bad weeks in the past. We always right the ship. We can only go up from here and we know we will. Our records on the season are as follows:

RPJ PICKS: 2-3
FLASH PICKS: 1-0
RUNNY PICKS: 0-5

No explanation for that crap. We know it is terrible, but we practice full disclosure. Feel free to blast us anyway you want. It won’t stop us from picking. We are imploring the will of Sarah Palin to bust us out of our mini slump. She jacked up McCain’s approval rating and good fortune and now we call on you…Mrs. Governor of Alaska and VP running mate to spread your goodwill and make our picks come in.

C’mon Sarah….bring home the cold hard cash!!!!!

That said, here is what we like in Week Two:

Raiders @ Chiefs (-3.5): The Raiders looked terrible on Monday. They played about as bad as a team could play. On the contrary, the Chiefs held their own against the mighty Pats in Foxboro last week. Their D looked really, really good. The Raiders are on a short week. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home against the Riaders, but we don’t think it matters in this one. Take the Chiefs -3.5.

Saints -1 @ Skins: The Skins disppointed us in Week One in NY/NJ. We don’t think they are as bad as they played and we think they will improve playing at home this week. However, the Saints just have more talent and a much better coach. The Saints beat a very good Tampa team last week and Colston was not productive. His loss impacts the team for the ling run but it doe snot impact them for this game. Also, the Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in DC. This line is essentially a pick-em. Take the Saints -1.

Runny picks:

Pats +1.5 @ Jets: This game will be the most hyped game of the week. Jets fans are foaming at the mouth with the opportunity to have Favre pound the Bradyless Pats at home. No doubt the Pats are a completely different team. However, Belichek is one of the best coaches in the game. He will come-up with a plan to exploit Cassel’ talents. Don’t forget, Matt Cassel is a USC product. He has talent and he has studied under Belichk and Brady his whole career. He has excellent skill players around him. He can get it done. Don’t forget, the Pats are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 at the Jets. The Jets did win against the Fins last week, but the Fins still suck. The Pats win outright. Take the Pats +1.5.

Chargers (-1) @ Broncos: The Broncos certainly had an outstanding debut against the Raiders on Monday night. Now they head home to face a Chargers team that is reeling from the heartbreaking loss at home to Carolina and from knowing that Merriman is out for the year. Tough blows. However, Carolina is much better than the Raiders and that game could have easily gone in the Chargers’ favor. The Chargers are 4-0 ATS against the Broncos. Take the Chargers -1.

Steelers @ Browns (+6): The Brownies looked terrible at home last week against the Boys. Romo had all day to pass and he ate them up. The Steelers were the exact opposite against the Texans last week. What will give? The ATS numbers favor the Steelers by a lot (Browns: 1-8 ATS in their last 9 against the Steelers; 0-5 ATS in their last 5 at home against the Steelers), but we think the Browns will make adjustments and figure out how to get pressure on Big Ben. They may not win, but they can keep it within 6.5. They will be fired up to avenge their terrible play last week and show the Steelers they can hang. Keep in mind that the Browns were destroyed last year in Week One (by the Steelers) but came back to drop 51 on the Bungles. Take the Browns +6.

Flash Flash Picks:

Baltimore at Houston (-4) – The tale of opposites. Houston was spanked on the road last week. Baltimore and Joe Flacco won against the Bungles. Houston is better than they showed and will be at home. Baltimore did not show anything but still won. Rookie QBs are comfortable at home and playing on the road is a whole nother ball game on the road. I think Baltimore gets blown out by more than 10 and I am even picking this game in all of my knockout pools this week. Some ATS numbers:

Ravens are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games on grass.
Ravens are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 road games.
Ravens are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
Ravens are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 vs. AFC.
Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Ravens are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Texans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Texans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
Texans are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Texans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.

Pick the Texans at home to cover!!!

Come back for the Monday Night pick. As always, good luck with your picks.

Runny and Flash

September 12, 2008 Posted by | Baltimore Ravens, Betting, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Football, Free NFL Picks, Gambling, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, NFL Picks, Oakland Raiders, Pittsbourgh Steelers, Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Sarah Palin, Sports, Washington Redskins, Winning Picks | 5 Comments

NFL WEEK 4 PICKS: LOCK IT LIKE ITS HOT!!!!

Mo’ money, mo’ money, mo’ money!!!!! Finally got off the schneid last week. Thank you Cowboys and Rex Grossman!!!! Our 2-1 record last week brought us to 5-4 on the season. Not where we should be, but still winning. Let’s get into this week’s locks (there are 4):

Rams @ Cowboys -13: Normally this would be too many points to give. However, we are riding the Cowboys and the Rams are going down faster than Brittney Spears at a construction site on payday. They are terrible. Bulger has been bad and is banged-up. No Orlando Pace. No Stephen Jackson. This equals a rams beatdown. The Boys will score often. The Rams won’t. Take the Boys -13.

Raiders +4 @ Dolphins: We like what Kifin is doing in Oaktown. He is bringing a winning culture back to the Raiders and they are playing hard. They should have beat Denver. They won a good one against Cleveland last week. Miami’s D is laying it thick, but their O is terrible. They will probably beat the Raiders, but not by more than a field goal. We think the Raiders can win outright though. Take the Raiders +4.

Broncos @ Colts -10: This game would be different in Denver. But, it is in Indy and the Broncos are overrated. The worse 2-1 team in football.  Peyton has too many weapons for Champ to cover. Colts roll and cover easily. Take the Colts -10.

Steelers @ Cards +6: The ‘Burgh is good, but Whisenhunt knows this team well. He will get his team ready.  We like the home dog. 6 points is just too much to give. Take the Cards +6.

Those are our locks for the week. Good luck with your picks. Flash and I are off to the Bone!! For those of your from Upstate NY, you know what I’m talking about!!!

Flash & Runny

September 29, 2007 Posted by | Betting, Broncos, Cardinals, Colts, Cowboys, Dolphins, NFL, NFL Picks, Raiders, Rams, Steelers | 2 Comments

NFL Preview: A gambler’s intro to making money

The Vegas odds on the NFL season have finally arrived and we wanted to point out to you some of the simple techniques we use to consistently make money. Lets take a look at the over/under win total for each team:

NFC East
Dallas – 9
Philly – 9
NYG- 8
Skins – 7.5

South
Carolina – 9
NO – 9
ATL – 7.5
TB – 7

North
Bears – 10
GB – 7.5
MINN – 6.5
Det – 6

West
Seattle – 9
SF – 7.5
St. Louis – 7.5
Zona – 7

AFC East
NE – 11.5
NYJ – 8
Miami – 7
Bills – 6

South
Indy – 10.5
Jacksonville – 9
TENN – 7
Houston – 6.5

North
Baltimore – 9
Pitt – 9
Cincy – 9
Cle – 5.5

West
SD – 10.5
Denver – 9.5
KC – 7.5
Oak 5

Simply put…Vegas is saying that the Patriots are the best team at 11.5 wins and the Raiders are the worst team at 5 wins. Why are the over/under win totals important? These early lines are the backbone for how Vegas is going to set their point lines this year.

Lets break down these win totals from a historic perspective:

NFL teams that won 11 or more games
2006=5
2005=10
2004=6
2003=7
2002=5
2001=8
6 year average – 6.83333

Why is this important? Well on average for the upcoming 2007 NFL season there will be 6.8 teams that win 11 or more games. Vegas right now is only saying that the Pats will win more than 11 games and has the Colts and Chargers at 10.5, close but not 11. Plain and simple numbers are saying that there should be 6.8 teams that win 11 or more games and Vegas only has one team identified that can do this. Even if you take the low numbers of 5 teams from 2002 and 2006, that still means there are 4 chances to beat these numbers.

NFL Teams that won 5 games or less in a season
2006= 6
2005=10
2004=7
2003=10
2002=6
2001=7
year average – 7.66666

This stat is even more telling. Vegas has only one team at 5 wins and this stat says that on average, over the last 6 years, there will be 7.6 teams that win 5 games or less. Again this is creating a money making opportunity to find the 6-7 other teams besides the Raiders that will win only 5 games or less. These will be easy under bets.

So to start off this betting year we have identified 11 betting opportunities where we feel Vegas is off by 3 games under or over.

Lets look at the over opportunites. We have spotted 5 opportunities to beat Vegas:

1) Bears – The Bears have an easy schedule and play in a weak division. We think they will win 14 games and Vegas only thinks they will win 10.

2) Saints – The Saints are also in an easy division and Vegas has them tied with Carolina with 9 wins. We think this is a joke and the Saints ar emuch better and will win the conference and come in with 13 wins.

3) Rams – Vegas has this high flying time under .500 at 7.5. C’mon now. S. Jackson will tear it up this year and the offense will be tough to stop with Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael as new additions. Rams win 11 games and the division.

4) Bengals – The Bengals play in a tough division but we think they have a favorable schedule and will win 13 games. Vegas has them at 9.

5) Chargers – We think the Chargers are the best team in the AFC and play in an easy division. This team will be on a mission. We see them at 15-1 and Vegas has them only at 10.5 wins.

Now for the fun stuff and finding the teams that will stink up the joint this year. It is amazing to us that Vegas only put one team at 5 wins. We see 6 money making opportunities for betting unders.

1) Vikings – Vegas puts this team at 6.5. We are laughing hysterically at this pick. Go look for yourself and find even 3 games you think they will win. We think this is the worst team in the league and will be lucky to win more than one game.

2) Atlanta – This speaks for itself. This team is a mess following the Vick legal mess. Vegas thinks they win 7.5 games and we think it looks more like 2. Go find 8 wins on this teams schedule. WE DARE YOU!!!!!

3) Tampa Bay – Vegas puts this team at 7 wins. Lets take a look….No RBs, no WRs, a gay QB and lame duck coach. 7 wins…..we think it will be more like 4.

4) Miami – The Trent Green experiment will go as sour as a Cleo Lemon. Vegas put this win total at 7 wins. We sharted ourselves laughing so hard that the experts think they can win 7 games. We think they will win one game.

5) Houston – Vegas put this team at 6.5 wins. The Matt Schaub experiment showed us all that he is a born loser. He might have put up some stats in the past but he sure knows how to lose and he will not enjoy throwing behind that line that ran Carr out of town. They will be lucky to win more than 3 games.

6) KC Chiefs – This team is the Raiders with Larry Johnson and a worse Defense. Vegas thinks they can win 7.5 games and we think 7.5 is the number of coaching mistakes Herm Edwards will average during each game. Chiefs might win 2 games this year.

So there you have it. We outlined where we think Vegas has made mistakes and we are putting our money where our predictions are. The Rams are probably the hottest pick going right now so you probably want to jump on that one before the lines move too much.

Flash Flash and Runny

August 25, 2007 Posted by | 49ers, Atlanta Falcons, Bears, Bengals, Betting, Bills, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs, Colts, Cowboys, Dolphins, Eagles, Falcons, Gambling, Giants, Jaguars, Jets, Lions, NFL, Packers, Panthers, Patriots, Raiders, Rams, Ravens, Redskins, Saints, Seahawks, Steelers, Texans, Titans, Uncategorized, Vegas, Vick, Vikings | 1 Comment