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UFC 73: Stacked Preview

Compared to the relatively boring UFC 72 card, the UFC 73 fight card is stacked – literally speaking – compared to 72. There are some easy money making opportunities lined up for UFC 73 and I think it is important to throw them into a parlay if some of the odds move more in the right direction. Also, just to throw it out there, I am 3-3 overall for my UFC picks and was 2-0 the last time I predicted.

The two easiest fights to pick:

1) Sherk (-280) vs. Franca (+210) – This is a title fight and I am expecting a solid beatdown. Sherk is one big muscle, hence his nickname (Muscle Shark), and when you take his body/muscle against Franca, a jujitsu fighter and submission guy you have one fighter who is completely neutralized. Franca has no chance of submitting Sherk, maybe by choke, but not likely. Franca will not put him in any type of arm or leg locks. Sherk is far too strong. Sherk also has shown that he can take a beating and keep on ticking (if you do not believe me check out the fight when he won the belt; he was a bloody mess). Also, Franca does not have a good striking style; he tends to throw wild haymakers and will leave himself completely open to controlled jabs and take downs. I would be surprised if this lasts two rounds. Also, you need to listen to Sherk’s interviews; he is very proud and is fighting to get paid to support his family. He has waited a long time to get some respect and fame and now that he has some he wants to build on it and continue to get paid more and more. He will roll in this fight. Also, Sherk is the reason BJ penn does not want to fight at 155 and Pulver wants to drop to 145. Sherk is an animal.

2) Antonio Minotauro Nogueira (-700) vs. Heath Herring (+500) – This one is not really worth discussing and I am expecting a solid Minotauro beat down. I am guessing he wins by choke. I have not been impressed with Herring’s two UFC fights (one was a loss) and I think he is vulnerable to a choke out. I consider Randy Couture to be one of the foremost authorities on MMA fighting and he thinks Minotauro is one of the best submission artists in the world. He had zero opinion on Herring. Enough said. Chalk up an easy win for Minotauro.

There is always a big upset on a UFC card and this week’s upset is:

Rashad Evans (+105) over Tito Ortiz (-135) (This line is moving, last check was -115, -115)- This fight is really hard for me to predict but I am going with Rashad Evans. My one fear is that Tito is a smart man and knows that if he loses this fight he has little to no future left in UFC. However, Tito is very business like. In the past he has hired a publicist, he likes to be seen out in public with his girlfriend, he has acted, he is into selling his clothes. I feel like he is more of a personality that talks a big game but does not have the full compliment of skills that today’s MMA superstars have. In his last 4 fights he beat Forest Griffin by decision in a fight I thought and Forest thought he won, beat Shamrock twice who is an old man and did not pose a challenge and got knocked out by Chuck Liddell. Not so impressive. That brings us to Rashad. Rashad s 15-0 and has been very impressive in his last three fights over Stephan Bonnar, Jason Lambert, and Sean Salmon. Rashad is getting better in each fight and adding something new each time. Just check out this awesome knockout of Salmon.

Take Rashad in this one and get the benefit of him as the underdog (hopefully if you can still find him as the underdog, I think we are starting to move lines here). I think Tito has a chance to win but I think he will go for broke in the first round, not get it done and then Rashad will systematically take him apart. This one might go to decision.

Anderson Silva (-165) vs. Nate Marquardt (+135) – Gonna stay with the favorite on this one and I am picking Silva. The only reason I am not making this an easy money fight is because of Nate Marquardt’s history of fighting boring fights where he takes an opponent down and holds him down and tries to pass guard without inflicting any damage. So in one scenario, and the only scenario where I see Nate winning, is the scenario where he takes down Silva and stalls and holds him down and simply wins the fight on a decision cause he got points on take downs. What I hope happens and what I think really will happen is Silva will simply come out on the attack and will keep constant pressure on Nate just like he did against Rich Franklin. Silva wants to punish people and I think he will remain on the attack while standing or on the ground. Last reason but certainly not least, Marquardt credits his recent success to finding God…I am sure God does not support pounding ones face like a butcher pounds beef…don’t pick the choir boy in this one.

The throw in fight:

Stephan Bonnar (-500) over Mike Nickels (+350) – always take the guy who you know uses performance enhancing drugs. Bonnar is back from his steroid suspension but we know he had the juice running through him.

So this week I am giving you 5 fights. On betus.com right now a 5 fighter $100 parlay pays $458.86. Kaching!!!! Good luck this weekend and let me know what you think. I am confident in my picks this week and ready to continue my roll.

Flash Flash

July 6, 2007 Posted by | Betting, Chuck Liddell, Gambling, mma, Penn, Rashad Evans, Steroids, ufc, Ultimate Fighter | 5 Comments

Ultimate Fighter 5 Finale and Penn vs. Pulver

Just wanteds to throw out to quick predictions regarding the fights tomorrow. Runny and I will actually be in Vegas this weekend throwin down some baseball and UFC bets.

Nate Diaz vs. manny Gamburyan – Not sure you can get any action on this fight yet. I looked online and did not see a line. I am all over Nate Diaz for this fight. Manny has shown that he is explosive in gaining control but not explosive in submitting or even in striking. He simply takes people down and holds them down. When he does this he also leaves himself exposed to choke outs. Nate is a flat out WORKER. his fight versus Gray was insane. He took a beating and kept attacking, throwing strikes whenever he could and also going for submissions every ten seconds. he is an animal and I think he will catch Manny and choke him out. Nate can take a beating and he does not care and will continue to fight and go for submissions. Only way to beat this kid right now is to knock him out cold and I do not think Manny can do it. Hopefully Manny is the favorite and you can make some nice scratch betting Nate.

Pulver vs. Penn – I am torn on this fight. I am a big BJ Penn mark and would love to see him win but I do not like his comments about Pulver or his comments about how he wants ot be one of the biggest stars in the UFC. First, he said he will be friends with Pulver after he puts him into retirement. I doubt Pulver is saying this. Pulver is Little Evil and will not show any mercy and certainly does not like Penn in any way. Second, Penn has always shied away form the limelight and I do not see him as some new mega-star in the UFC. He does not have the charisma. So I want Penn to win but I do not like his demeanor. Runny was saying this was like Liddell/Jackson all over again and that in that fight, Liddell was going to lose as soon as the weigh in. You could just tell. Since Penn is the big favorite at -350, I do not recommend loading up the Brinks truck on this one but I do think Penn will ultimately win because he is an overall better fighter.

Flash Flash

June 22, 2007 Posted by | Chuck Liddell, Gambling, mma, Penn, Rampage Jackson, Sports, ufc, Ultimate Fighter, Winning Picks | 1 Comment