RPJ Betting Syndicate

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NFL WEEK 1 2008 PICKS

Greetings folks. Disappointing start with Thursday’s game. We learned a lot from that game though and we will exploit it later in the season. Runny is 0-1 on the NFL so far, but we like a lot of games on the first Sunday. Again, we will have RPJ picks and our individual takes. Here it goes:

RPJ PICKS (0-0 on the Season)

Cowboys -5.5 @ Browns: The Cowboys covered every weekend in September last year. They are stacked again this year on both sides of the ball. However, the Browns are, too. They made huge improvements on their D in the offseason, and although they looked terrible in the pre-season, they should be a legit contender this season. This is a lot of points to give a team like the Browns at home, which is begging you to take them. Herein lies the Vegas trap. This line has gone up all week. Don’t fall for it. Take the Boys-5.5.

Texans @ Steelers -7: The Steelers are stacked this year and the Texans are banged-up. They are just not as good as the Steelers right now. We like Matt Schaub and Mario Williams. Just not enough. We love the Steelers at home to open their season. Take the Steelers -7.

Bears @ Colts-9.5: We’ve watched the Bears pretty closely this pre-season, more so than most other teams. Take our word for it, they are a MESS on the offensive side of the ball. With the exception of Hester, they have absolutely no playmakers on offense. That does not bode well for them going into Indy. They need to score points to beat them, and the Bears just don’t have the personnel. Plus, the Bears D is severely overrated-maybe the most overrated unit is the NFL. Indy wins this game by at least 17. We don’t care about Manning’s knee. Take the Colts -9.5.

Jets @ Fins+3: Finally the Fins have some stability in the front office and at QB. This will be a great game. So many side stories: Favre’s debut in a uniform other than Green Bays; Pennington gets a revenge chance against the team that gave him a Cleveland Steamer; the Tuna’s 2008 debut. All great stuff. We like the Fins in this one because of the points, and we believe they are the better team. They will surprise everyone with how well they will run the ball this year. We think Ted Ginn finally starts showing why he was a first round pick. For the Jets, we think their D is good, but Favre is way overrated. This will be a close game. We like the points. Take the Fins at home +3.

Jags -3 @ Titans: This is our favorite game of the week. Load-up on this one if you can. We think the Jags will make it to the AFC Championship game this year. They are loaded on both sides of the field. The Titans are terrible. Vince Young has mentally checked-out and he has no playmakers to help him. Jags may shut them out. It will be ugly. We don’t care that the Titans usually play the Jags tough and cover. Take the Jags -3.

RUNNY PICKS (0-1 on the Season)

Lions -3 @ Falcons: The Falcons made some good moves in the offseason drafting Ryan and signing Michael Turner. They are going in the right direction, but it will take another year to get out of Vick’s debacle shadow. The Lions are just much better than they are this year right now. I think this line is low because Vegas is judging the Lions on the end of the year meltdown last year. The Lions have playmakers and will score some points. I don’t think Ryan is ready to keep up. Take the Lions -3.

Chiefs @ Pats -15.5: This is a ton of points and the Pats have been extremely cold when it comes to covering. However, the Chiefs are terrible and will not score points. Their D is good, but they will play mostly nickle against the Pats due to the passing attempts. When they do, 3 of their DB’s will be rookies. Brady will crush this. They may not run the ball more than 10 times in this game. Pats win in a blowout. Take the Pats-15.5.

Flash Flash Picks (0-0)
Nothing today but one game for sure on tap Monday night.

Check back with us for Monday Night’s games. We have picks for both games.

As always, good luck with your picks.

Runny and Flash

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September 7, 2008 Posted by | Atlanta Falcons, Bears, Betting, Brett Favre, Browns, Chad Pennington, Chicago Bears, Chris Redman, Cleveland Browns, Colts, Cowboys, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit, Detroit Lions, Dolphins, Eric Mangini, Falcons, Football, Free NFL Divisional Round Picks, Free NFL Picks, Free NFL Wild Card Picks, Free Super Bowl Picks, Gambling, Green Bay Packers, Houston, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jaguars, Lions, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Miami, Miami Dolphins, Michael Vick, Monday Night Football Picks, New England Patriots, New York Jets, NFL, NFL Picks, Packers, Patriots, Peyton Manning, Pittsbourgh Steelers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Randy Moss, Sports, Tom brady, Vegas, Vick, Winning Picks | 1 Comment

NFL WEEK 6 PICKS: TAKE ‘EM TO THE BANK

Had a disappointing 3-2 week last week (damn you Romo!!) bringing our season record to 12-6. We will improve on that record. No better time than right now to rip it up. We like 6 this week. Here are our locks for Week 6:

Rams +9.5 @ Ravens: We are staring with the Brinks Truck bet for the week. This line is comical. There is not a team in the NFL that the Ravens can beat by more than 9. Not one. The Rams have a very underrated D. Although they are extremely banged-up, they have enough to keep this game under 9.5. We would not be surprised if the Rams win outright. Take the Rams +9.5.

Titans +3 @ Buccaneers: Both teams are intriguing. TB has been much better than we thought they would be. Garcia was a great pick-up for them. Young has been better than we thought as well (even though his stats are terrible). But, TB is banged up big time. We also love the Titans’ D. Jeff Fischer is a brilliant coach. Titans D coupled with the Buc’s offensive injuries means this game will be close. Not convinced that the Buc’s D can contain Young’s running. Take the Titans +3.

Saints +6.5 @ Seahawks: The Ain’ts screwed us last week. There is just no legit explanation for a team falling from grace like thaey have. Unreal. As bad as they have been, 6.5 is just too much points to give. The Ain’ts may keep losing, but they will keep it within 6.5. Take the Saints +6.5.

Skins +3 @ Packers: Don’t believe the Packers/Favre hype. They are good, but every announcer and the NFL kisses Favre’s packer way too much. Don’t get us wrong, we love Favre and the Packers are much better than we thought they would be. However, the Skins are solid this year. And, for as much talk there is about the Packers D and O, the Skins D is actually much better and their O is only slightly behind GB’s.  Don’t be surprised if the Packers lose 2 in a row. Take the Skins +3.

Panthers @ Cards -4.5: Cards have been good to us this year. Love the return of Warner. Hopefully that means we’ll be seeing more of his Roxette wife. We can only hope she now has a mullet. The Panthers are decimated by injuries. There is a chance Vinny testavede will make an appearence this week.  We love the Cards. Take the Cards -4.5.

Patriots @ Cowboys +5.5: This line has been all over the place. The majority of the money and bets in Vegas are on the Pats. At first glance the Pats win this outright. The Boys looked terrible last week against the Bills, and Brady looks like he is playing himself on Madden ’08. Where has Randy Moss been?!?!?! However, the thing to pay attention to is the Pats have played no one good yet. Sure they played the Chargers, but that was when the Chargers were terrible. They’ve really had no challenges. Even last week in Cleveland, the Brownies kept that game close until the end and they have no D or O. The Boys are not the Browns, and they can dfeinately keep it close all game. The Pats red zone D is terrible (I believe that everytime any opponent has reached the Pats 20 yard line the Pats have been unable to stop a TD). The Boys will exploit this. Belichek will take Whitten and TO away from Romo.  The Boys will know this as well. Look for a big game from Patrick Crayton to have a big game as Romo will go to him early and often. For the Boys D, it could be a long day. Moss owns Dallas. Especially in big games. TNew and Anthony Henry will have their work cut out for them. Moss will be doubled. That means look for a big game from Wes Welker. It will be high scoring, but we think the Boys D and the home field will give them the edge. Don’t believe the Pats hype. The media loves them as much as they do Bret Favre. The Boys win this game outright. Take the Boys +5.5.

Those are our 6 locks for Week 6. Keep it rollin’. Good luck with your picks.

Runny & Flash

October 12, 2007 Posted by | Belichick, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Cowboys, Jason Whitten, Jeff Garcia, Kurt Warner, Packers, Panthers, Patrick Crayton, Patriots, Rams, Randy Moss, Ravens, Redskins, Saints, Seahawks, Seattle, Terrell Owens, Titans, Tom brady, Tony Romo, Vinny Testaverde, Wes Welker | 3 Comments

Bill Belicheater and the Pats – A Dynasty tainted!!!

The report that Roger Goodell believes the Patriots were violating the rules following the confiscation of a camera that was allegedly used to spy on the Jets Defensive coaches during this past weekend’s game might bring down the Patriots success and dynasty image. You need to take into consideration what is being revealed here and one big dirty word…CHEATING. Cheating is cheating and has no place in sports. Cheating is anything that threatens to disrupt the integrity of the game. Cheating is people taking steroids, look at the public perception of Barry Bonds. How about Mark McGwire? he should have been a first ballot hall of famer and he was not. Do you think Raffy Palmeiro will get in any time soon? Cheating is Pete Rose betting on baseball because he single handedly had the ability to change the outcome of games through his play and coaching efforts for the purpose of winning or losing gambling bets.

Now we have Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Matt Estrella, the Pats video assistant was in possession of the video camera and he was the same guy removed from a Patriots/Packers game last year, a game the Pats were up 35-0 at the half. He also did not want to hand over the video camera and was clearly agitated at the thought of doing so. Just look at the quote:

“From what I can remember, he had quite a fit when we took him out,” Packers president Bob Harlan said.

Then you have the following report from the NY Daily news:

“New details came to light yesterday. The cameraman, wearing a team polo shirt under the league-mandated sideline photographer’s vest, was stopped by security as he tried to enter the New England locker room before halftime, sources said. An animated discussion ensued, involving league security, Jets security and Patriots security. The dispute, which occurred in the bowels of the stadium, lasted more than an hour, virtually the entire second half. At one point, it became so heated that New Jersey state troopers were summoned as a precaution, a source said. The Jets apparently were trying to confiscate the videotape, which wound up in the possession of NFL security. The tape was placed in a box, sealed and forwarded to the league.
“He looked scared to death,” one source said of Estrella.

Here is the NFL rule and Roger Goodell stressed adherance to this rule in the offseason: “No video recording devices of any kind are permitted to be in use in the coaches’ booth, on the field or in the locker room during the game. Videotaping of an opponent’s offensive or defensive signals on the sidelines is prohibited.”

In addition, the following memo was sent by the NFL’s head of football operations, Ray Anderson, to head coaches and general managers last September reiterating the policy and stating that “video taping of any type, including but not limited to taping of an opponent’s offensive or defensive signals, is prohibited on the sidelines, in the coaches’ booth, in the locker room, or at any other locations accessible to club staff members during the game.”

This is repeated problematic rules violations. Hey Estrella, if you were not doing anything wrong than hand it over. Now word is that Eric Mangini, Jets coach, was the real reason this went down. Mangini was familiar with Belichick’s video tactics and was livid about seeing the camera on his own guys. Why do you think Belichick has so much hostility towards Mangini; it is because Mangini knows about all of Belichick’s cheating ways.

These are serious allegations and Roger Goodell has shown that he is willing to come down hard on rules violators. because this is America, the Pats have the right to present their case to Goodell and sources think this will happen by the end of the week. Actually, I just received word that Belichick spoke to Goodell this morning and just had a press conference at 11AM this morning. He apologized to players, owners and fans and then said it was in the hand of the NFL and he had no more comments on it.

I am not sure what the appropriate penalty should be but I think it should be harsh. Extremely harsh. Cheaters should be punished and the Pats and Belichick are no different. If these allegations prove true than I am going to discount everything the Pats have accomplished under Belichick. Just think about what you think of Bonds and McGwire’s homers…should they have an asterix? Well the Pats wins in the regular season and Super Bowl are soured if these allegations prove true that the Pats and Belichick’s staff were cheating. Plain and simple, this is not up for debate. If Belichick is a cheater than the Pat wins and Super Bowl wins came under the direction of a proven cheater and their results need to be discounted and maybe even erased. I also think some type of serious fine and the loss of draft picks should be thrown in as well. I think Goodell will respond quickly and harshly and I can not wait to hear what he has to say.

Flash Flash

September 12, 2007 Posted by | Belichick, Eric Mangini, ESPN, Jets, NFL, Packers, Patriots, Roger Goodell, Sports | Leave a comment

NFL Preview: A gambler’s intro to making money

The Vegas odds on the NFL season have finally arrived and we wanted to point out to you some of the simple techniques we use to consistently make money. Lets take a look at the over/under win total for each team:

NFC East
Dallas – 9
Philly – 9
NYG- 8
Skins – 7.5

South
Carolina – 9
NO – 9
ATL – 7.5
TB – 7

North
Bears – 10
GB – 7.5
MINN – 6.5
Det – 6

West
Seattle – 9
SF – 7.5
St. Louis – 7.5
Zona – 7

AFC East
NE – 11.5
NYJ – 8
Miami – 7
Bills – 6

South
Indy – 10.5
Jacksonville – 9
TENN – 7
Houston – 6.5

North
Baltimore – 9
Pitt – 9
Cincy – 9
Cle – 5.5

West
SD – 10.5
Denver – 9.5
KC – 7.5
Oak 5

Simply put…Vegas is saying that the Patriots are the best team at 11.5 wins and the Raiders are the worst team at 5 wins. Why are the over/under win totals important? These early lines are the backbone for how Vegas is going to set their point lines this year.

Lets break down these win totals from a historic perspective:

NFL teams that won 11 or more games
2006=5
2005=10
2004=6
2003=7
2002=5
2001=8
6 year average – 6.83333

Why is this important? Well on average for the upcoming 2007 NFL season there will be 6.8 teams that win 11 or more games. Vegas right now is only saying that the Pats will win more than 11 games and has the Colts and Chargers at 10.5, close but not 11. Plain and simple numbers are saying that there should be 6.8 teams that win 11 or more games and Vegas only has one team identified that can do this. Even if you take the low numbers of 5 teams from 2002 and 2006, that still means there are 4 chances to beat these numbers.

NFL Teams that won 5 games or less in a season
2006= 6
2005=10
2004=7
2003=10
2002=6
2001=7
year average – 7.66666

This stat is even more telling. Vegas has only one team at 5 wins and this stat says that on average, over the last 6 years, there will be 7.6 teams that win 5 games or less. Again this is creating a money making opportunity to find the 6-7 other teams besides the Raiders that will win only 5 games or less. These will be easy under bets.

So to start off this betting year we have identified 11 betting opportunities where we feel Vegas is off by 3 games under or over.

Lets look at the over opportunites. We have spotted 5 opportunities to beat Vegas:

1) Bears – The Bears have an easy schedule and play in a weak division. We think they will win 14 games and Vegas only thinks they will win 10.

2) Saints – The Saints are also in an easy division and Vegas has them tied with Carolina with 9 wins. We think this is a joke and the Saints ar emuch better and will win the conference and come in with 13 wins.

3) Rams – Vegas has this high flying time under .500 at 7.5. C’mon now. S. Jackson will tear it up this year and the offense will be tough to stop with Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael as new additions. Rams win 11 games and the division.

4) Bengals – The Bengals play in a tough division but we think they have a favorable schedule and will win 13 games. Vegas has them at 9.

5) Chargers – We think the Chargers are the best team in the AFC and play in an easy division. This team will be on a mission. We see them at 15-1 and Vegas has them only at 10.5 wins.

Now for the fun stuff and finding the teams that will stink up the joint this year. It is amazing to us that Vegas only put one team at 5 wins. We see 6 money making opportunities for betting unders.

1) Vikings – Vegas puts this team at 6.5. We are laughing hysterically at this pick. Go look for yourself and find even 3 games you think they will win. We think this is the worst team in the league and will be lucky to win more than one game.

2) Atlanta – This speaks for itself. This team is a mess following the Vick legal mess. Vegas thinks they win 7.5 games and we think it looks more like 2. Go find 8 wins on this teams schedule. WE DARE YOU!!!!!

3) Tampa Bay – Vegas puts this team at 7 wins. Lets take a look….No RBs, no WRs, a gay QB and lame duck coach. 7 wins…..we think it will be more like 4.

4) Miami – The Trent Green experiment will go as sour as a Cleo Lemon. Vegas put this win total at 7 wins. We sharted ourselves laughing so hard that the experts think they can win 7 games. We think they will win one game.

5) Houston – Vegas put this team at 6.5 wins. The Matt Schaub experiment showed us all that he is a born loser. He might have put up some stats in the past but he sure knows how to lose and he will not enjoy throwing behind that line that ran Carr out of town. They will be lucky to win more than 3 games.

6) KC Chiefs – This team is the Raiders with Larry Johnson and a worse Defense. Vegas thinks they can win 7.5 games and we think 7.5 is the number of coaching mistakes Herm Edwards will average during each game. Chiefs might win 2 games this year.

So there you have it. We outlined where we think Vegas has made mistakes and we are putting our money where our predictions are. The Rams are probably the hottest pick going right now so you probably want to jump on that one before the lines move too much.

Flash Flash and Runny

August 25, 2007 Posted by | 49ers, Atlanta Falcons, Bears, Bengals, Betting, Bills, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs, Colts, Cowboys, Dolphins, Eagles, Falcons, Gambling, Giants, Jaguars, Jets, Lions, NFL, Packers, Panthers, Patriots, Raiders, Rams, Ravens, Redskins, Saints, Seahawks, Steelers, Texans, Titans, Uncategorized, Vegas, Vick, Vikings | 1 Comment