RPJ Betting Syndicate

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2008 NFL WEEK Three: Free Winning Picks

This is truly terrible and hard to publish. RPJ $yndicate is now 2-5 for our NFL picks. Flash is still 1-0 with a no game last week and Runny came back to the plus side on the week and is now 2-6. This is ugly but it will reverse. We destroyed college football yesterday (10-4 collectively), and we know where we’ve been in the past. Not even sure what we can do to make you feel better. Last week we tried to invoke the spirit of Sarah Palin and that failed miserably. Shame on us for posting a picture of a semi MILF. We think the only thing we can do to reverse it is to show some hot pictures….

Nice crack Miss Klum…

Golf anyone? This is the best picture of Natalie Gulbis ever.

Hopefully those two pics appease the football gods and our picks come around this weekend.

RPJ $yndicate picks

Houston at Tennessee (-4.5) – The return of Kerry Collins. What a glorious thing. If only we knew whether or not he was back on the sauce. Sauce = wins for Kerry Collins. With or without Kerry, the Titans D owns the Texans. And in the NFL, teams like the Ravens and Bears can make the Super Bowl with a jacked D and a mediocre QB that will not turn the ball over. With the Titans running game, we do not expect Kerry to screw things up to badly. The ATS numbers:

Houston
Texans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
Texans are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Texans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.
Texans are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC South.
Texans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.

Tennessee
Titans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
Titans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC South.
Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 3.

Heads Up
Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Do you really need any more information? Tennessee wins and covers easily!!!

Miami at New England (-12.5) – Nice of Joey Porter to provide the Pats with bulletin board material. This rocket scientist is going on the road, to New England with an 0-2 team. Click here to see what he said. Bill Parcells might actually rip Joey’s head off before the game, poo down his neck cavity and then feed him to lions. The ATS numbers:

Miami
Dolphins are 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 vs. AFC.
Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Dolphins are 5-22-2 ATS in their last 29 vs. AFC East.
Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Dolphins are 0-7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in September.

New England
Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Patriots are 25-11 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Patriots are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 vs. AFC East.
Patriots are 39-18-2 ATS in their last 59 games following a ATS win.

Head-to-Head
Home team is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 meetings.
Dolphins are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings in New England.

Again, the ATS numbers say it all and we will bet against any team that gives the Pats bulletin board material. Look for Randy Moss to inject himself again in the lineup in this game. Dolphins have no chance. Pats win and cover easily!

Bungles at Giants (-13) – The Giants continue their COVER roll. These guys are money and are 2-0 on the season. The Bungles by the way are lining up to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. The owner is undercutting Marvin Lewis by bringing back Chris Henry and Ocho Cinco and TJ Housh are either playing hurt or just playing like shiznit. Can these guys drop any more passes. We love us some Ocho Cinco and will even show a highlight reel of him to show our love….

Well Mr. Ocho….it looks like those highlights will be few and far between this year. Also, when your QB hosts cornhole tournaments you know you are in serious trouble. We love us some USC but Carson is taking it a little too far. If you do not know what we are talking about then click here (Carson Palmer Cornhole Classic). Carson even charges people, you can buy a package or sponsor Carson’s cornhole. What a business. Here are the ATS numbers for the game:

Cincinnati
Bengals are 5-11-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bengals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Bengals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Bengals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Bengals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.

New York
Giants are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Giants are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
Giants are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
Giants are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win.
Giants are 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

The Giants are cover machines right now and we are not going to step in front of this train. Take the Giants to cover and win!!!

Runny Picks

Panthers @ Vikings (-3): The Vikings as favorites in this game really scares me. It has trap written all over it. No doubt the Vikings have a good D, but their QB play has been some of the worse in the league. Changing to Ferotte is probably be a good things, but let’s not forget that he is Gus Freakin’ Ferotte!! There are many reasons why he has not been a starting QB. Now add to the mess that Adrian Peterson is gimpy and may not play. The Panthers get Steve Smith and they have pulled out some great wins. I typically stay away from games that are too good to be true, but I like this one. I’m taking Carolina and the points.

Steelers @ Eagles (-3.5): Clash of the Keystone State Titans!! This will be a great game. Both teams are fundamentally sound and are coached extremely well. The Iggles are fresh of their barn-burner in Big D last Monday. A game, I feel, they should have won outright. Did you see Brian Westbrook?!?! He is the man!! The Steelers beat their hated rival Browns in the Ike Bowl with winds that could make even the toughest team flinch. What will give? I like the home team in this one. I think the Iggles are playing better all around. I also thing Big Ben’s shoulder is hurt much more than they are letting on. I think the Iggles win by at leats a TD. Take the Iggles -3.5.

Jags @ Colts (-4.5): These teams always play each other tough. Always great games. Both teams limp into this one with huge injuries-primarily to their O-Lines. Manning has not been the Manning we are accustomed to seeing. The Jags have not been able to run the ball like we are used to seeing either. That said, I think the Jags get on the right track this week. The reason? Bob Saunders. He is out this week for the Colts. That spells huge trouble for the Colts’ run D. Mo Drew and Fred Taylor will finally get on track. I think the Colt will win, but the Jags will be able to control the ball enough to keep it close. Take the Jags +4.5.

Browns @ Ravens (-2.5): Another huge rivalry game. These teams DESPISE one another and the games are usually a blast to watch. This one is pretty simple to me. No way the Browns go 0-3 against a rookie QB. The Ravens have a solid D, but the Browns have the talent to attack them. I’m taking the Browns and the points (+2.5).

Cowboys @ Packers (+3): Another great game. The Boys covered last year against them in Big D (line was -7.5). If you remember, the Boys jumped on them early and knocked Favre out of the game. Rogers stepped in and actually played much better than Favre did. He almost beat them. But, he didn’t and the Boys went on to make Flash and I some cash. What about this year? The Packers are the same team, except old #4 is gone. The Boys are much better. Romo is coming home to play his childhood favorite team. Lambeau does not have the same homefield advantage in Septmber as it does in December. I think the Boys win easy. Again. Take the Boys -3.

Flash Flash “The all good things must come to an end” picks

These picks will defy logic but you just have to go with them.

Houston at Tennessee over/under 39 points – We already gave you our pick in this game but I am seeing a trend this season and this week. Here are the ATS numbers:

Houston
Over is 8-0 in Texans last 8 vs. AFC South.
Over is 4-0 in Texans last 4 games in September.
Over is 4-0 in Texans last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 4-0 in Texans last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 5-1 in Texans last 6 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in Texans last 5 games on grass.
Over is 8-2-1 in Texans last 11 road games.
Over is 4-1 in Texans last 5 vs. AFC.
Over is 16-5 in Texans last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.

Tennessee
Under is 4-0 in Titans last 4 games on grass.
Under is 6-0 in Titans last 6 games in September.
Under is 5-0 in Titans last 5 games overall.
Under is 5-0 in Titans last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Titans last 5 vs. AFC.
Under is 11-1-1 in Titans last 13 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 8-1-1 in Titans last 10 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games in Week 3.
Under is 6-2-1 in Titans last 9 home games.

Head-to-Head
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

So it looks like a pretty even split; the Houston over and the Titans Under. The only thing that throws it off is their last 4 head to head, which has been consistently Over. What I am looking at is this year and this year the Titans are 2-0 for the under and their defense is nasty. Houston is coming off a hurricane induced bye and the players are more concerned about their families than they are about this game. Look for Houston to get shut down by the titans defense and look for the Titans to run the ball a lot. The more they run, the faster the game clock ticks down and the less time they have to score points. I am taking the under 39 in this game.

Tampa Bay at Chicago Over/Under 36 points – Here we go with another one against the grain but it is not as blatant as the Texans/Titans. Lets jump into the ATS numbers:

Tampa Bay
Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 5-0 in Buccaneers last 5 road games.
Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 games following a ATS win.
Under is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Under is 9-3 in Buccaneers last 12 games in September.
Over is 6-2 in Buccaneers last 8 games overall.
Over is 5-2 in Buccaneers last 7 vs. NFC.

Chicago
Over is 22-7-1 in Bears last 30 vs. NFC.
Over is 15-5 in Bears last 20 home games.
Over is 5-2-1 in Bears last 8 games in Week 3.
Over is 14-6 in Bears last 20 games following a ATS loss.

Head-to-Head
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Chicago.

This is an interesting one for the Vegas odds makers. These teams are 3-1 for the under this season and the lines have been trending down. Chicago has seen 43 and 37.5 points and went under both times and Tampa has seen 43 and 37.5 points and went over the 43 by one point and then hit the under. Vegas keeps ratcheting the line down and now it sits at 36 points. The Bucs are averaging 22 points on O and giving up 17.5 points on D and that adds up to 39.5 points. The Bears are averaging 23 points on O and giving up 16.5 points on D and that adds up to 39.5 points. I think Vegas set this under too low. These two teams are efficient on offense. Tampa always is and Orton plays conservative ball and Forte has been a stud. These teams have played to the Under in 4 of their last 5 meetings but I am going the other way. I am taking the Over in this game!!!

As always, good luck with your picks.

Flash and Runny

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September 21, 2008 Posted by | Ass, Betting, Chicago Bears, ESPN, Gambling, Heidi Klum, Houston Texans, Miami Dolphins, Natalie Gulbis, New England Patriots, New York Giants, NFL, NFL Picks, Randy Moss, Sarah Palin, Sports, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Uncategorized, Winning Picks | , | 10 Comments

1/1/2008 – Free Winning NCAA Bowl Picks and Hot Chicks: 5 Bowl Picks

Happy New Year!!! We hope you are not still hungover and have enough energy to place some winning bets with us. We are coming at you today with winning picks on 5 games. We are really excited because this is the first time we are coming at you with our Super Keyra bet. Keep reading to find out which bowl that is for. Here are our picks:

We have two Heidi Klum bets for you today:

1 Unit Bet = The Heidi Klum bet. You know she is hot but her judgement must be suspect cause she married one of the ugliest human beings outside of Scottie Pippen, Sam Cassell and Charlie Weis (of course we took a dig at Notre Dame in this blog). We love the Heidi Klum but something is off with her judgement so we are only comfortable making her a a one unit bet.

These are the same pictures that gave us our first win this bowl season so we are being superstitious and going back to them:

heidi-klum-stomach.jpg

and the infamous Butt Crack:

heidi-klum-ass-crack-011.jpg

Klum Game 1 – Tennessee (-1.5) versus Wisconsin in the Outback Bowl
We love when we see SEC schools squaring off against Big Ten schools and this game should show America the difference between the two conferences just like it did last year. Tennessee is scoring 33.4 points per game, about three points more than the Badgers this season and that is why the line is set where it is set. Now Tennessee’s defense is nothing to talk about but when they face a basic offense like Wisconsin’s, and rumor has it that PJ Hill is still banged up, we have to think Tennessee will be good enough to deal with them, especially after they only gave up 21 points to an LSU team that has a far superior offense to Wisconsin. Lets look at the ATS numbers:

Wisconsin
Badgers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Badgers are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Badgers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Badgers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.

Tennessee
Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
Volunteers are 5-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Volunteers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Volunteers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Volunteers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.

This game is in Tampa so you know the SEC faithful will pack Raymond James stadium. Wisconsin usually gets stuck in these games against an SEC school and has won this matchup the last two seasons. We think Wisconsin is a different team without PJ Hill and we bet he was worth 2-3 points to the oddsmakers. Both QBs have experience but Ainge gets the edge here. We are only assigning this a Klum bet cause the Badgers show up against the SEC but we think this is the year that changes. Tennessee wins and covers!!!

Klum Game #2 – Hawaii versus Georgia (-7.5) in the Allstate Sugar Bowl Classic
We think this game has the betters thinking of Oklahoma versus Boise State from last year. The line opened at Georgia -9.5 and is now at Georgia -7.5, which shows that all of the money is going on Hawaii. Hawaii played one of the softest D-1 schedules ever this season. Yes, they did take care of business when it mattered but they barely scraped by. We also know that Georgia feels slighted from the BCS championship game after LSU jumped them after winning the SEC championship game. Mark Richt, the Georgia coach, has openly criticized the system and this is the one thing that makes us nervous. We hope Richt put this behind him and has helped get his Dawg squad ready to win. Lets check out the ATS numbers:

Hawaii
Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Warriors are 7-18 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Georgia
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

We all know the deal here. Colt Brennan is the man and June Jones has the run and gun going and they play in the same conference as Boise State, Boise State was undefeated last year and beat Oklahoma….Blah Blah Blah. Georgia is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. Georgia has not lost a game since they inserted Freshmen Knowshon Moreno into the starting lineup. They have a six game winning streak going. Georgia amassed 25 sacks over its six-game winning streak to close the season and that is something Hawaii has not seen yet this year. This Georgia defense will really get after Brennan and he has shown a tendancy to get hurt this year. we are only throwing a Klum bet on this because we know what can happen in this wild and whacky bowl season. We do know we are betting Georgia and expect them to win and cover!!!!

So that was two Klum games. We are following that up with two Derek Jeter games.

2 Unit Bet = The Derek Jeter Bet – In honor of one of our favorite athletes, the 2 unit bet will be a tribute to all of the women Derek Jeter has allegedly slept with including, Jessica Biel, Scarlett Johanson, Mariah Carey, Anna Kournikouva, Miss Universes, models, etc…. We have a ton of chicks to choose for this bet in honor of our man Derek Jeter.

Lets show off two hot chicks that Jeter has allegedly banged: First Miss Jessica Alba:

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We are sure Jeter fired his guns at her. And now one of his other alleged conquests…Miss Vanessa Minnillo:

vanessa-minnillo-bg14.jpg

Yeah Jeter hit this before she got with Nick Lachay and the backside of course:

vanessa-minnillo-bikini-3-05.jpg

Jeter Game 1 – Arkansas versus Missouri (-3) in the ATandT Cotton Bowl Classic
Missouri had a great season if you take out playing Oklahoma. However, Missouri definitely feels slighted because they finished 6th in the BCS standings and are not playing in a BCS game. This will be a game of run versus pass…Missouri is the 7th rated passing team in the nation and Arkansas is the 3rd rates rushing offense in the country. Missouri actually has a rush defense and only gave up 118.8 yards per game on the season. Lets get into the ATS numbers:

Arkansas
Razorbacks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.

Missouri
Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
Tigers are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
Tigers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
Tigers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.
Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Tigers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home.

As you can see, Missouri has the clear edge with its ATS numbers. Throw in the fact that Arkansas’ coach, Houston Nutt, resigned after they beat LSU and defected to Ole Miss and you have to like the consistency that Missouri will have. Missouri is definitely disappointed they could not beat Oklahoma but they have a great QB, dynamic offense and a defense that can stop the run and we can see this game getting out of hand. We are sure McFadden and Jones will have their moments but if Missouri gets ahead, as we expect, Arkansas is in no shape to pass its way to victory. Jump on with our Boy Derek Jeter and play Missouri to win and cover!!!!

Jeter Game 2 – USC (-14) versus Illinois in the Rose Bowl
We had our ups and downs with USC this year and this game seems like it should be an easy one for the Trojans. The spread is the highest of all of the Bowl games and Illinois did not lose any games this year by more than 10 points. They even played Missouri tough in a 7 point loss to open the season. Both teams are riding 4 game winning streaks. The real difference in this game is USC’s defense. The Trojans rank second in the country in total defense, fourth in scoring defense and fourth in rushing defense. USC allowed just 15.9 points per game. Lets look at the ATS numbers before we throw our pick out:

Illinois
Fighting Illini are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Fighting Illini are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.
Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.

So Cal
Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big Ten.
Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
Trojans are 9-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Trojans are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
Trojans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Trojans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.

Bettors are likely to jump on Illinois because everybody remembers the following three games against mobile QBs…Texas/USC, Washington/USC this year (27-24) and USC’s loss to Dennis Dixon this year. The big difference is that Illinois is a run first team and averaged 266 yards rushing per game. Juice William’s, The Illini mobile QB, ran for 774 yards and 7 TDs and only passed for 1,498 yards with 13 TDs and 10 INTs. Illinois is a run first team and pass second. We already told you how good USC’s defense is and we think Illinois will be completely neutralized. This is not the typical mobile QB that is just as dynamic passing as he is running. Do not fear the points. If you want us to go into more detail on this game we will be happy to. We just see no need. Beat Down Cometh!!! USC wins and covers easily!!!!

THE BET OF ALL BETS THIS SEASON
We are throwing out our first Keyra bet on the following game.

The Super Bet = The Keyra Shake that Money Maker bet – These will be our super lock bets. The bets we are taking out second mortgages, bank loans, hitting up friends and relatives…you get the picture. Bet as much as you can stomach bets. If you are not familiar with our gal Keyra, check out this action. This has to be one of the best videos ever put on the Internet:

Say this three times…I wish I was a red thong, I wish I was a red thong, I wish I was a red thong:

keyra-augustina-red-thong.jpg

Or if red is not your color, I wish I was a black thong, I wish I was a black thong, I wish I was a black thong:

keyra-augustina-black-thong.jpg

Man that makes us feel good. On with “THE GAME” of the bowl season:

Michigan versus Florida (-11) in the Capital One Bowl
We love this game and our write up will not hide our bias in any way. The Wolverines faced two legit spread option teams this year (and we are not counting Illinois for reasons explained above). Appalachian State ran Michigan out of their own house and Oregon really pounded the Wolverines. The Wolverine seniors have never won a bowl game and they never played well for Coach Lloyd Carr so we see no reason why they will play hard for him during this game. Michigan did have four key players injured this year and you never know when the injury bug will bite them again: QB Chad Henne, RB Mike Hart, WR Mario Manningham and OT Jake Long. These guys are all expected to play but will they be able to play the whole game. Florida has the 4th best scoring offense in the country at 43 points per game. Do you know how many times Michigan scored 43 points this year….1 time (against Purdue) and that was the only time they scored 40 this season. Everybody knows how good Tebow is and how dynamic the Gators offense is. We see zero reasons why Michigan can win this game or even have a chance competing. Florida is on a 4 game winning streak and a 4 game winning streak ATS. Check out the ATS numbers:

Michigan
Wolverines are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games.
Wolverines are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Florida
Gators are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.

Can you just feel it? Florida is going to pound Michigan. They have a significant edge in talent, on offense, in the coaching department and Michigan can not stop the spread. Lloyd Carr is gonna wish he quit last season after an underdog USC squad beat his assin the Rose Bowl. We love this game and are betting our max on it. Florida crushes Michigan…NO CONTEST!!!

Flash Flash and Runny

January 1, 2008 Posted by | Arkansas Razorbacks, BCS, Dahm Triplets, Derek Jeter, Fighting Irish, Florida, Florida Gators, Free NCAA picks, Gambling, Georgia Bulldogs, Hawaii Rainbows, Heidi Klum, Illinois, Jessica Alba, Keyra Augustina, Lloyd Carr, Michigan, Michigan Wolverines, Missouri, Natalie Gulbis, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Notre Dame, Pac-10, Pete Carroll, Rose Bowl, SEC, Sugar Bowl, Tenn, Tennessee, Tigers, Tim Tebow, Urban Meyer, USC, USC Trojans, Vanessa Minnillo, Volunteers, Winning Picks, Wisconsin Badgers | 5 Comments

NCAA Football Week 13 Games: Winning Picks and Chicks for 11/24/2007

After the USC/Arizona State decimation we are 49-45 on the season, 5-3 on Eva Mendes bets and up 12 units. We still have Friday’s games to go so check out that post if you want to bet today’s games. We have 7 picks for you for Saturday’s games and one is another Eva Mendes bet.

Game 1 – Maryland at NC State (-2.5) – This is the “I wish I was Natalie Gulbis’ sweatshirt” game. When you look at the picture below imagine what it must feel like to be Natalie’s sweatshirt.

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We bet it feels freaking incredible, maybe one of the best feelings on earth at that particular mid stretch moment. So when you look at Maryland and NC State sitting at 5-6 in the win loss column, one win away from being bowl eligible where they might have a chance to play in the December 11 Velveeta pimento loaf bowl you can bet that each one of these teams wishes they were Natalie Gulbis’ sweatshirt right about now and that is a place that is MUCH MUCH Better than where they are now. Some ATS numbers for you:

Maryland
Terrapins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

NC State
Wolfpack are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.
Wolfpack are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Wolfpack are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Wolfpack are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Wolfpack are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Wolfpack are 3-12 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Wolfpack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.

The battle of the 5-6 teams is really not an exciting one and NC State has been playing better of late but we are not buying them. We both looked at this line and immediately thought it was wrong and that Maryland should be favored. These two teams historically have played each other pretty close of late, averaging a 5 point margin of victory over the last 5 years. Call it a hunch but we are going with the team that has the fattest head coach in honor of Mark Mangino. Take Maryland and the points!!!

Game 2 – Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (-11.5) – The “What is the temperature up there” game! Oklahoma basically holds its own destiny in terms of the Big 12 Championship game and they have an outside chance to make it to the BCS title game. This cheerleader is helping out her Sooners by seeing what the temperature is up there in that pose. Can they win? Will Bradford stay in for the whole game? What will the impact be missing DeMarco Murray?

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Oklahoma leading rusher DeMarco Murray dislocated a kneecap trying to recover an onside kick last week and will be forced to miss this game. Quarterback Sam Bradford sustained a concussion in the loss last week but he has been cleared to play. We do not think he will be 100%. Then throw in that this is a rivalry game and Oklahoma State plays well on the road in Big 12 action, giving up an average of 17.3 points. We are definitely intrigued. Check out the ATS numbers:

Oklahoma State
Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.

Oklahoma
Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Sooners are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Sooners are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Sooners are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

We are not concerned with who wins this game but we think Oklahoma State is good enough to cover and possibly win outright. We are banking on the cover. Take Oklahoma State!!!

Game 3 – UCONN at West Virginia (-17.5) – The Battle for the Big East is not what the experts were predicting at the beginning of the year. Who the heck would have thought UCONN would be in first place right now, holding their own destiny. This will be a very tough game to watch but if you have watched UCONN this year you know that their defense is legit and likes to hit. We know West Virginia’s dynamic duo of Slaton and White do not like to get hit and are prone to fumble. Lets look at the ATS numbers:

UCONN
Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Huskies are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in November.

West Virginia
Mountaineers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games on turf.
Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Mountaineers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
Mountaineers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite.
Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Mountaineers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

We think all signs line up for a UCONN cover and we think this game will be a lot closer than people think. West Virginia probably wins but we like UCONN to keep it close. Take UCONN!!!

Game 4 – Florida State at Florida (-13.5) – This is our Eva Mendes bet for Saturday’s games. We are betting 5 times our normal betting unit and we absolutely love the picture below so much we had to show it again. That ass did win big for us last weekend so we are gonna ride it until it bucks us off.

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We were actually surprised to see this line in the 2 TD range and thought it really could have been more around 20-22 points. Florida State is inept on offense and the defenses match up pretty evenly. Lately Florida State has been winning close games or losing and Florida has thumped its last three opponents since the Georgia game, scoring at least 49 points in each game. Florida State has only scored 30 points once this year and that was back on September 8 when they barely beat UAB by 10 points. Also, Florida State gave Florida bulletin board material earlier in the week when Florida State linebacker Geno Hayes boldly predicted Monday that “Tim Tebow’s going down.” “The bigger they are the harder they fall,” Hayes said. “Hopefully we can go out there and shatter his dream.” Well we think Geno Hayes is a JACKASS!!!!! Florida gets Percy Harvin back for this game after he missed the last two. Do not expect this game to be as close as last year when Florida only won 21-14. This Florida team is really putting up points and Tebow is going for the Heisman. Lets look at the ATS numbers:

Florida State
Seminoles are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win.
Seminoles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

Florida
Gators are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
Gators are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.

Lets look at the head to head matchups: The favorite is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings. The home team is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings. The Seminoles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Florida. So what does this all add up to….a Florida smack down. We think Florida easily wins and covers in this game and we are betting Eva’s sweet ass that they do!!!

Game 5 – Clemson at South Carolina (+3) – “The stick it here game” Clemson is going to have to rebound from a heartbreaking loss to Boston College. Clemson lost last year to South Carolina and in 2004 the two teams brawled and had to give up their postseason eligibility. We think the Clemson Tigers are going to want to stick it to South Carolina and put it right where this cheerleader’s picture shows:

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South Carolina is now playing bad football. They have lost 4 in a row and have no defense. Throw in the fact that Clemson wins the turnover margin +10 to minus 5 and has a much better defense and we like how this is looking. We know CLemson likes to run the ball and South Carolina gives up 208.8 yards per game on defense. I think you can see where we are going with this. Some ATS numbers for you:

Clemson
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. SEC.

South Carolina
Gamecocks are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games in November.
Gamecocks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Gamecocks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Gamecocks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. ACC.
Gamecocks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
Gamecocks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Gamecocks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Gamecocks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Gamecocks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Gamecocks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.

Head to head the Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings, the Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in South Carolina and the Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Did we get you excited yet? We think Clemson rebounds from their BC loss just like Virginia Tech did and wins this tough game. Take Clemson to win and cover!!!

Game 6 – Cincinnati at Syracuse (+20) – “The in your Face Game” – This is a clean sweep game and Cincy will be all over Syracuse. Take a look at this cheerleader picture and check out the male cheerleader in the front getting a full face of muff.

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Cuse is the muff and Cincy is the male cheerleader. Cincy will be all over Cuse in this one. This has blow out written all over it. Cincy rushes for more than twice what Cuse rushes for, Cuse only converts 28.8% of its third downs on offense (this is almost as bad as Notre Dame but not quite!!!), Cuse gives up 217 yards a game rushing, lets opponents convert third downs almost 50% of the time and loses the turnover ratio battle -5 to 17. Check out these ATS numbers:

Cincinnati
Bearcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Bearcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf.
Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Bearcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Bearcats are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Bearcats are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games.

Syracuse
Orange are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Orange are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Orange are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Orange are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on turf.
Orange are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Orange are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.
Orange are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Orange are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Orange are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.

Now throw in the fact that the Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and you have to bet Cincy in this one. Bearcats win big and cover this high number!!!

Game 7 – Missouri at Kansas (-2) = first things first, we send our dearest apologies to Kansas coach Mark Mangino after we doubted his Kansas squad last week. We knew they would win but finally felt like they would not cover. Boy were we wrong!!! So we send our most sincere of apologies to you Mr. Mangino. You are the real deal and you are doing an awesome job.

This is the “Hot boxing chick versus the hot Mixed Martial Arts chicks Game”. Who would not want to see these two beauties go at it and well in reality they do fight for a living. Here is a picture of Frida Wallberg:

mma-1.jpg

If you do not believe that she is a real fighter then chech out this website on women’s boxing.

And now for our Muay Thai chick Miss Gina Carano:

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So why two chick fighters? Because this football game is going to be a great fight. Both teams are on a roll, the winner plays in the Big 12 Championship game and has a really good shot, if they win out, to make it to the BCS promised land….The BCS National Championship Game. Also, the winning QB will immediately jump out and be considered one of the leading candidates for the Heisman trophy. Lets take a look at the ATS numbers:

Missouri
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on turf.
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Tigers are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.
Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Tigers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.

Kansas
Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Jayhawks are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.
Jayhawks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
Jayhawks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win.
Jayhawks are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games.
Jayhawks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite.
Jayhawks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
Jayhawks are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games on turf.
Jayhawks are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win.

We threw every number at you. There is nothing negative to say about either team. If you had to pick on one thing and we are going to throw a lot of weight at it, it is who has the better defense and the way we see it, Kansas has the clear advantage. Kansas holds opponents to 84 yards per game rushing (122 for Missouri), Kansas lets offenses convert third downs 30% of the time (43% for Missouri) and Kansas wins the turnover ratio margin 21 to 10. Now some people might say that Kansas did not have to play Texas, Oklahoma or Texas Tech on its way to its undefeated season but we do not think that is relevant. Kansas smacked every single opponent in the face regardless of who they faced and they are getting better as the season goes on. We think this game will come down to turnovers and who can stop who and playing the numbers all signs point to Kansas. Also, when you throw in the fact that Kansas has the fattest coach in NCAA, you have to love them. Ride the Mangino train.

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We love Kansas to win and cover!!!

Flash Flash and Runny

November 23, 2007 Posted by | Arizona State, BCS, Betting, Big East, Clemson, Clemson Tigers, ESPN, Eva Mendes, Florida, Florida Gators, Florida State Seminoles, Football, Free NCAA picks, Gambling, Gamecock, Huskies, Kansas Jayhawks, Mark Mangino, Maryland, Missouri, Mountaineers, Natalie Gulbis, NC State, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Orangemen, SEC, Sooners, South Carolina Gamecocks, Sports, Syracuse, Terrapins, Tigers, Trojans, Uconn, USC, USC Trojans, West Virginia, Wolfpack | 1 Comment