The Herd came back to earth a little bit this week. For Wheel of Genius picks he was 1-2-1 and his throw in Penn State pick hit. On the season The Herd is now 10-4-1, which is still pretty darn good. The Herd just said he was 11-4-2 and we have no idea where that came from. This is why we watch him and his picks because he tends to inflate at times.
He is also 2-0 on his upset special picks with the first win coming Alabama over Clemson and last night with Colorado beating West Virginia.
Here are his picks for Week 4:
LSU (-2) at Auburn – He is picking the upset here and says Auburn will win 17-14. Tuberville is money in big games and has won 6 straight at home versus Top 10 teams and 9 of 12 overall. The Herd does not like unsettled QB situations and that is a strike against both schools and when it hits both schools you go with the home team.
Notre Dame at Michigan State (-9) – He picked this in his pre-season upset special and did acknowledge that it is now not an upset cause State is favored. Says Michigan State is the most underrated team in the country and is incredibly physical. Notre Dame is coming off a huge emotional win and that is trouble. Herd is picking Michigan State to win and cover by the score of 33-20.
Georgia at Arizona State (+7) – Georgia does not travel period, has a questionable O-line and plays 12 freshmen. Arizona State has a great QB and has fixed a lot of their OL trouble from last year. Herd thinks Georgia wins 27-23, which means Arizona State covers.
Florida at Tennessee – He did not give a line here. Says the team that runs better wins this game. Tennessee has never beat Urban Meyer. Last year Florida blew them out and rubbed it in by saying The Vols quit. This year Tennessee is the better rushing team, plays at home and has a chip on their shoulder. The Herd thinks Florida wins 24-23 but Tennessee covers the points.
Flash and Runny
We think the best way to sum up this past weekend is to reveal the Las Vegas Sports Consultants top 5 poll. These guys are in the know and know a lot more than the ridiculous AP poll and the other garbage out there. Here is the poll in reverse order:
5) Florida – Impressive win over a bad team. They do not need Tebow to roll and this will be key to getting through the SEC. This is the ONLY SEC team in the top 5. You SEC homers can start your bitching.
4) Missouri – A little surprised here because the defense did not show up. Offense is ridiculous.
3) Oklahoma – Two teams from the Big 12. How about that. Remember what we said about QBs. The best group of QBs in the nation is in the Big 12.
2) Ohio State – We think this is a little bit overrated. Beanie is hurt and they did not impress against 1-AA talent. Team is still getting props for all of their returning starters and that is an important metric to track in the beginning of the season.
1) USC – Did not play that well and dominated a terrified Virginia team. Defense is ridiculous when focused and lost focus early when they knew they would not face a challenge. Great WR play highlighted the offense. D. Williams is a huge addition. Looks like the replacement for Steve Smith.
Other notables. The Big East and the ACC were and are awful. Clemson laid a huge egg as did Virginia Tech and Tennessee. Fulmer should be fired after that horrible performance. Tennessee caused four first half turnovers and held UCLA to 29 yards rushing and LOST!!!! One more time….they freakin LOST!!!!! Incredible.
The basic fact of college football is as follows. There are only two team that travel well 2,000 miles or more out of conference and that is USC and Fresno State. Props to Fresno for jacking up Rutgers. Tennessee can not do it two years in a row. Big Ten teams do not do well when they travel West; Rose Bowls and Michigan State this weekend. The reality is that teams protect their home field. Rivalry games are incredibly more important and demanding then out of conference road games. People think the SEC is the best conference because of the teams in the conference when in reality it is the rivalries. Almost every single game is a huge rivalry in the SEC and that creates the demanding pressure and creates battle tested teams. Ohio State has one rivalry game in conference, Oklahoma has Texas and vice versa, the Big East and ACC lack big rivalry games. The Pac-10 has a couple but everybody is really trying to beat USC. The reality is the SEC has more rivalry games and that is why the games are so tough and the teams do well in bowls. They are battle tested.
Player of the Week – Pat White tore it up for West Virginia. Watch out for this team. They have an awesome QB, lots of skilled players around him and play in the Big East. They easily could run the table and this is a team on a mission with a bitter taste in their mouth following their PITT debacle last year.
Team of the Week – Most impressive win has to be East Carolina. They came back and won on special teams. Complete reversal against Virginia Tech. We love Beamer ball but Holtz got the best of him this year.
Poo of the week – Tie between Clemson and Tennessee. Tennessee wins hands down because we thought Alabama had a good chance of winning and Clemson was overrated. Tennessee’s loss is inexcuseable. UCLA is bad, very bad and this will play out over the course of the season.
Stay tuned for our picks for Week 2. Feel free to post any comments or questions. We are here to help you. If you want any inside action feel free to shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org. Also, let us know if you want us to post hot chick pictures and with or without nudity.
We love cash like a fat kid loves cake!!!
Flash Flash and Runny Pelvis the Fat
Can you smell what THE SYNDICATE IS COOKING!!!!!!!!!!!!! NCAA Football is finally here!
Man we are excited for the NCAA football 2008-2009 season. We are going to hit you up with this post on some pre-season observations like What Vegas is trying to tell you and Where Vegas is trying to trap you and we are going to analyze some of the best teams and players in the country to let you know what we are thinking and to inject some of our own predictions and analysis.
We are here to provide you with full disclosure on what we are up to. Two years ago, RPJ Syndicate went 19-4 against the spread during bowl season and we made ourselves a ton of money. Last year we started this blog and started posting our picks to the public with the idea of continuing with our momentum so we could ultimately charge for our services. Well a funny thing happend on the way to the bank last season….we finished the regular season 59-54 and finished up 13 betting units. Well I do not know about you but this record was not worth paying for and we are back again this season posting our picks for free. We were up 13 units because we went 6-4 for our 5 unit bets. So there you have it. We will tell you why we are picking certain games and our MONEY IS 100% behind every recommendation we make so we feel the pain and share the gain. We spent the offseason enhancing our betting models and extending our network of betting and information contacts and we are confident that this will be a year to remember. And now on with the show…..
Vegas has put out its W/L futures odds for the 2008 NCAA football season. The teams are ranked below in alphabetical order by the amount of games Vegas will entertain your bets over/under the team’s total win amount for the regular season; bowl games do not count. Take a look at some of the teams we are highlighting:
Ohio St – 10.5
Oklahoma – 10.5
USC – 10.5
Boise St – 10
Florida – 10
Missouri – 10
BYU – 9.5
Clemson – 9.5
Georgia – 9.5
West Virginia – 9.5
Auburn – 9
LSU – 9
Penn St – 9
South Florida – 9
Texas – 9
Virginia Tech – 9
Wisconsin – 9
California – 8
Florida St – 8
Oregon – 8
Kansas – 7.5
Miami FL – 7.5
Michigan – 7.5
South Carolina – 7.5
Tennessee – 7.5
Illinois – 7
Nebraska – 7
Notre Dame – 7
UCLA – 6
What stood out to us is Georgia. Georgia is number 1 in the coaches poll and all experts are stroking their cahcks to the Bulldogs because they return 17 starters from last year’s team and the experts love their RB/QB combo and have labelled it the best 1-2 in the country. Vegas knows their up from their down and do not even have the Dawgs winning the SEC. Vegas gives that honor to Florida. Take a look at Georgia’s schedule:
8/30 Georgia Southern
9/06 Central Michigan
9/13 @ South Carolina
9/20 @ Arizona State
10/25 @ LSU
11/08 @ Kentucky
11/15 @ Auburn
11/29 Georgia Tech
The USC Gamecocks, ASU, Alabama, Tennessee stretch is brutal and then they still play at LSU, followed up with a game against Florida and still have to travel to Auburn. We see 3 loses out of this squad. In addition, Mark Richt is not controlling this team in the offseason and the players are clearly not focused on winning championships. Multiple players are already going to start the year on the suspended list. Check out this article Georgia LB Dewberry suspended 2 games after hospital incident. Beware Bulldogs fans cause your team has a brutal schedule and all the preseason hype. With hype comes distraction. Urban Meyer has already shown how badly he wants to beat you this year and he is not alone.
USC and Ohio State are at the top of the list with an over/under of 10.5. That means in order to win this bet each team needs to lose only one game all year. These teams play in LA on September 13 so one of them will have a loss 2 or 3 games into their season. This is really the only game each team needs to worry about and the winner will likely play in the BCS title game. Outside of travelling to LA, Ohio State’s two scariest games are at Wisconsin and at Illinois. The Buckeyes get Penn State and Michigan at home and the rest of the Big Ten stinks. USC gets Ohio State at home along with Oregon, ASU and Cal. Just like back in 2004, if USC can get past a tough early schedule game (Ohio State this year and Va. Tech in 2004), their schedule lines up perfectly for an undefeated run.
The focus of college football teams really needs to focus on the QB position. The conference with the best QBs in the nation play in the Big 12. Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Missouri, Kansas, even Colorado are going to play with QBs that are going to play on Sundays. Do not be surprised to see the winner of the Big 12 playing in the BCS title game.
The other QBs to watch include Sanchez, Tebow and Pat White. If Sanchez is healthy, the Trojans have a shot at playing in the title game and never disount Tim Tebow, the best QB in the SEC. The best QB in the Big East plays for West Virginia and these guys might have a shot at sneaking through the season undefeated. White and Devine are going to be nasty.
This stuff is not rocket science. Pollsters should really look at shcedule when deciding their pre-season rankings but when they do not, Vegas knows what to do and tells us publically. No Georgia, yes to Florida. PAc-10 and Big-10 are not competitive cause they expect USC and Ohio State to only have one loss and one will be to each other. The Big 12 will be scrappy up top with Oklahoma and Missouri. Clemson will choke once again and BYU will not get to the BCS game cause Boise State is still the cream of the crop.
Stay tuned for our FREE PICKS tomorrow and let the games begin. This season is going to be fruitful.
Flash Flash and RUnny
1/7/2008 BCS Title Game: Tomorrow’s headline reads…..Ohio State Wins National Championship and Celebrates With Hot Chicks
We are sitting at 10-11 with a a recommendation to select Rutgers to win their Super Bowl versus Ball State. Not where we wanted to be and especially not what we were expecting after picking ATS winners at a 19-4 clip last bowl season. We are assigning this free winning pick a 2 unit value and we will throw in numerous hot chicks with our pick.
Ohio State versus LSU (-4) in the BCS Championship Game
Well lets get the bitching out of the way. Georgia wanted to be in this game but could not get to their own conference championship, Hawaii was the only undefeated team but it was via a scheduling farse, USC demonstrated true coaching arrogance going for it on 4th down in the red zone and playing a QB with a broken hand against Stanford, Oklahoma won the Big 12 and Stoops showed how he sucks with his bowl preparation, Virginia Tech could not win their bowl game and Kansas could not get to their own conference championship game. So all of these teams were bitching at the end of the year but we have to think the BCS got it right. Ohio State only had one loss and the Big 10 gets the media street cred and LSU lost two heartbreakers in triple OT. Whether or not you think this is right, it is what we are stuck with. To ease your tension, check out this hottie, Miss Megan Gale:
Did that work you USC, Georgia, Kansas fans? I bet it did.
We are kind of perplexed with the action around this game. LSU opened at minus 5.5 and even went up to minus 6 in some places and now is sitting at minus 3.5. This game is essentially a home game for LSU and most “experts” right at the end of the regular season said LSU would walk all over Ohio State. Now it seems like people have conducted some research and all of the action is going to Ohio State. We want to go through the ATS numbers first here and then get into it…
Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf.
Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
Buckeyes are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Buckeyes are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games overall.
Buckeyes are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win.
Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Buckeyes are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win.
Buckeyes are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. SEC.
The one negative that sticks out is that Ohio State is 0-4 against the SEC in their last 4 games and we all remember last year’s 41-14 drubbing that Florida put on them. All in all though, most of the ATS numbers are positive. Positive on turf, in bowl games, as an underdog, versus teams with winning records, etc…
Tigers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games on turf.
Tigers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games.
Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
Tigers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall (we got TENN at -7.5).
Tigers are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Tigers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Tigers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Pretty interesting huh? LSU has a lot more negative ATS trends including 2-8 in their last ten games and 1-6 against teams with a winning record. Appears to be a team that is not riding high into the title game. They were 0-3 against the spread to end the season. Everybody likes to point to LSU’s nasty defense and fast skill players on offense as reasons LSU was #1 for most of the season and favored to play in the BCS title game. The Tigers rank third in the nation in total defense and 20th in scoring defense with 19.6 points per game. LSU’s defense also ranks fourth in the nation in turnovers gained and is fifth in interceptions with 21. This stat really comes out when you compare turnover ratio….LSU is at +18 for the season and Ohio State is at minus 1. Since LSU’s defense is a high point, lets check out some of their on campus talent:
Maybe she will lend us some of her paint or let us finger paint her….
Well some might argue that Ohio State’s defense is actually better than LSU’s. Ohio State led the way in total defense allowing 227.6 yards against per game, scoring defense of 10.7 points per game, passing defense of 148.2 yards per game and ranked third in rushing defense of 79.4 yards per game (remember this stat; if you are avid readers you immediately know why). One thing to point out is that it is obvious that LSU played a harder schedule and far more dynamic offenses during the year than Ohio State did and this likely skewed the defensive numbers. For reasons unknown, but for reasons that clearly helped Ohio State, the Buckeyes played a joke a schedule against the likes of Youngstown State, Akron, Washington and Kent State and during a year when the Big Ten was not good. This is a one year anomaly because Ohio State goes to USC next September 13. However, it is fact that this cupcake schedule helped Ohio State reach this game. LSU was not much better in scheduling because the SEC is known for scheduling out of conference cream puffs. At least LSU invited Virginia Tech to play in Baton Rouge and deserves the credit for that. Just to equally represent the girls of the Big 10, check out the fighting spirit of these Buckeyes going into the Michigan game….
So we know both defenses are excellent and are loaded with players that will play on Sunday. What about the offenses? Lets take a look:
Ohio State – 32
LSU – 38.7
Ohio State – 398.3
LSU – 448.2
Ohio State – 195.8
LSU – 229.2
Ohio State – 202.5
LSU – 218.9
How about them Apples? LSU wins across the board. Why is this relevant…..because of the offensive jinx! In four of the last five BCS title games (Florida broke the trend last year), the winning team had fewer yards of total offense during the season. Edge Ohio State. Offense has proven to lose out to the superior defense. Next point, the team that allows fewer points per game has won five of the last 6 BCS title games (Florida broke this streak last year ranking 6th to Ohio State’s 5th ranking). Edge Ohio State. There is a big gap this year because Ohio State is #1 giving up 10.7 points per game and LSU is #21 giving up 19.6 points per game.
One more thing to comment on is QB play. This is Ohio State QB, Todd Boeckman’s, first bowl game. Troy Smith got the start last year. Boeckman’s numbers are not that great: 2,164 yards, 23 TDs, 12 INTs and a 64.3% completion percentage. He is also not very mobile and has not played well against teams that really came after him. In each case he was bailed out by RB Chris Wells. Arkansas showed that you can run on LSU, especially with a banged up Glen Dorsey. What we do know is that Boeckman is an excellent game manager, is durable and does not make the terrible mistakes that have plagued some QBs this bowl season (right Va. Tech?). There seems to be some sort of glamour behind LSU’s QB tandem. Matt Flynn is a fifth year senior, knows as a great QB and athletic runner and the “experts” like to tell us that he will play on sundays. We see a different player. He is banged up and has a tendancy to get injured, he is not efficient and completed only 55% of his passes. His other numbers are 2,164 yards, 17 TDs and 10 INTs. He is also not really a mobile QB because he only ran for 246 yards and 4 TDs and averaged 3.0 yards per carry. Is that Vincy Young dangerous? We think not. Perrilloux seems like the better QB and he will not get the start. Perrilloux threw for 694 yards, 8TDs, 2 INTs and completed 68% of his passes. Perrilloux had 30 less carries than Flynn and ran for 203 yards and 2 TDs. Les Miles should have switched to Perrilloux early in the season when he was able to witness Flynn’s mediocrity but he is too stubborn and stayed with the senior.
We could sit here and go through the individual player matchups, special teams, coaching etc….but the fact will remain that we simply think Ohio State is the better team. We gave you the ATS numbers, we gave you statistical numbers and we have two more points to bring up.
Point 1 – Since the BCS was introduced no team has ever lost two title games in a row. The only situation where a team lost one year and came right back to the title game was the Florida Gators and they easily won the second time around. Ohio State was in this game last year, they know what to expect and how to prepare and will come out with guns blazing.
Point 2 – Teams that give up less than 100 yards rushing on defense and are the underdog win their bowl games outright 75% of the time. As goofy as this is it works… See Penn State and USC last year and we just saw what Kansas was able to pull off. Ohio State is that team this year.
We think you know which way we are going with this. We do not see many, if any, reasons that point to LSU in this game. Our money is on the Buckeyes. Ohio State covers and probably wins outright!!!
Since we know of Les Miles’ rants against USC and the Pac-10 and since we just picked them to lose outright as favorites, we thought Mr. Miles would enjoy wearing this shirt….
Have fun with the shirt Mr. Miles cause if you get out of the SEC you are going to face USC in the championship game. Yes, that was our first prop bet of 2008…..USC Trojans will be your next national champ.
It has been a great year. Thanks for your support.
Flash Flash and Runny
We concluded the NCAA Football regular season with a record of 59-54. We were 6-4 on Eva Mendes bets, which were our super bets meaning we bet 5 times our normal unit. This approach led us to win 13 units on the season. Take away the Vig (about 10%) and we are working with with just under 12 units….11.7 to be exact. We would have liked to win more but we won and that is a lot better than other so called “experts can say”.
The reason we started our blog is because we went 19-4 during last season’s Bowl Season. We crushed it!!!! Combining our record with an article in the Wall Street Journal about a sports picker out in Cal-Berkely who was giving away his picks for free and winning at a nice rate. Well this Cal-Berkeley guy made his picks for pay when he had enough of a fan base and he was making $10k a month in his first few months on top of his gambling money. We know our system and our picking are world class and we are revealing all of our picks to you for free. You the reader are reaping the benefits of a free winning system. The point of gambling is not to have more fun while watching games…the point is to make cold hard cash and when you follow us, as we proved during this season, you make cash!!!
Now the point of this Bowl season is to take your/our 11.7 units and turn that into a lot more. We are going to give you specific reasons why we are picking a game and sometimes we might just tell you to pick a game just like we did with our pick of PITT to cover against West Virginia for their December 1 game. Our betting system is based on a trial and tested system and we always put our money where our mouth is with no exceptions.
For this bowl season we are going to set up a system for you where you bet 1,2,3,4,5 and the Super Bet for as many betting units as you are willing to risk. The Super Bet is our 99.99999% lock!! These bets are called:
The Super Bet = The Keyra Shake that Money Maker bet – These will be our super lock bets. The bets we are taking out second mortgages, bank loans, hitting up friends and relatives…you get the picture. Bet as much as you can stomach bets.
5 Unit Bet = The Eva Mendes Bet – We love us some Eva and think she is a Goddess. Since we renamed the Brinks truck bet the Eva Mendes we went 3-1 with it.
4 Unit Bet = The Shakira Hips Don’t Lie bet- We love us some Shakira and her hip shaking bits. In honor of this Columbian love ma-cheen, we named one of our bets after her. For the Shakira bets, place 4 times your typical unit of bet.
3 Unit Bet = The Dahm Triplets bet-A lot of great things come in threes. The Dahm Triplets are no exception. Indeed, they are Dahm hot!! For these bets, bet 3 times your typical betting unit… one for each one of these lovely ladies. Be sure to send the vig to their parents as thank you for gracing us with them. The world is definitely 3 times better since they were delivered from the heavens.
2 Unit Bet = The Derek Jeter Bet – In honor of one of our favorite athletes, the 2 unit bet will be a tribute to all of the women Derek Jeter has allegedly slept with including, Jessica Biel, Scarlett Johanson, Mariah Carey, Anna Kournikouva, Miss Universes, models, etc…. We have a ton of chicks to choose for this bet in honor of our man Derek Jeter.
1 Unit Bet = The Heidi Klum bet. You know she is hot but her judgement must be suspect cause she married one of the ugliest human beings outside of Scottie Pippen, Sam Cassell and Charlie Weis (of course we took a dig at Notre Dame in this blog). We love the Heidi Klum but something is off with her judgement so we are only comfortable making her a a one unit bet.
Below is the schedule for all bowl games this season. We are going to pick as many games as our system spits out. Do not expect us to pick every game but we will have action on most of them. We will probably post our picks on this blog 1-2 days before each bowl. Please feel free to ask us any questions or post comments on this blog. Our email is email@example.com.
Flash Flash and Runny
2007-08 College Football Bowl Schedule
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia
Utah (-9) vs. Navy
Dec. 20, 9 p.m.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Memphis (+2) vs. Florida Atlantic
Dec. 21, 8 p.m.
Southern Miss vs. Cincinnati (-11)
Dec. 22, 1 p.m.
New Mexico Bowl
Nevada vs. New Mexico (-3)
Dec. 22, 4:30 p.m.
Pioneer Las Vegas
UCLA vs. BYU (-5.5)
Dec. 22, 8 p.m.
Boise State (-10.5) vs. East Carolina
Dec. 23, 8 p.m.
Purdue (-9.5) vs. Central Michigan
Dec. 26, 7:30 p.m.
Pacific Life Holiday
Arizona State (+1.5) vs. Texas
Dec. 27, 8 p.m.
Boston College (-3) vs. Michigan State
Dec. 28, 5 p.m.
TCU vs. Houston (+3.5)
Dec. 28, 8 p.m.
Maryland vs. Oregon State (-4.5)
Dec. 28, 8:30 p.m.
Meineke Car Care
UConn vs. Wake Forest (-3.5)
Dec. 29, 1 p.m.
UCF vs. Mississippi State (+3)
Dec. 29, 4:30 p.m.
Penn State vs. Texas A and M (+5.5)
Dec. 29, 8 p.m.
Alabama (-3.5) vs. Colorado
Dec. 30, 8 p.m.
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces
California (-4) vs. Air Force
Dec. 31, 12:30 p.m.
Georgia Tech (-4.5) vs. Fresno State
Dec. 31, 2 p.m.
South Florida (-6.5) vs. Oregon
Dec. 31, 2 p.m.
Gaylord Hotels Music City
Kentucky (-1) vs. Florida State
Dec. 31, 4 p.m.
Indiana vs. Oklahoma State (-4.5)
Dec. 31, 6 p.m.
Clemson (-2.5) vs. Auburn
Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m.
Wisconsin vs. Tennessee (-3.5)
Jan. 1, 2008, 11 a.m.
AT and T Cotton
Missouri (-3.5) vs. Arkansas
Jan. 1, 2008, 11:30 a.m.
Texas Tech vs. Virginia (+5.5)
Jan. 1, 2008, 1 p.m.
Michigan vs. Florida (-10.5)
Jan. 1, 2008, 1 p.m.
Rose Bowl presented by Citi
Illinois vs. USC (-13.5)
Jan. 1, 2008, 4:30 p.m.
Hawaii vs. Georgia (-9.5)
Jan. 1, 2008, 8:30 p.m.
Oklahoma (-6.5) vs. West Virginia
Jan. 2, 2008, 8 p.m.
Virginia Tech (-3) vs. Kansas
Jan. 3, 2008, 8 p.m.
Rutgers (-9.5) vs. Ball State
Jan. 5, 2008, Noon
Bowling Green vs. Tulsa (-4)
Jan. 6, 2008, 8 p.m.
Allstate BCS Championship Game
LSU (-6) vs. Ohio State
Jan. 7, 2008, 8 p.m.
To start things off this week we want to thank you the readers. As of time of this blog, we have had over 2,650 people read us this month. To go along with these thanks we want to ask for your input, advice, suggestions, etc… Please feel free to tell us we stink or to praise us. We know you all want winners and we do to because our money is always where our mouth is.
On the season we are 53-51, 6-4 on Eva Mendes bets and up 10 units. We are disappointed about the 10 unit mark because we would like to be higher for the bowl season but we will take it. If you listened to us, you made money and that is what matters most to us. Straight Cash Homey!!!!!
We have 9 picks for you this week but we do not have an Eva Mendes bet. Also, since we know you like it, we are going to put in as much hot tail as we can!!! Lastly, we looked at every single game this weekend so if you want our opinion or any stats or lines please let us know by leaving us a comment on this blog or emailing us directly at firstname.lastname@example.org.
The Hot Dirty Girl Games. Basically we are jumping on the two Florida teams nobody talks about….Central Florida and Florida International. The Hot Dirty Girl Game means these are chicks nobody is thinking about. They are not the South Beach hotties or Miami models, they are simply hot, probably dirty and we love them!!!!!
Boobs and camel toe…Only in a Hooters Girl competition.
Game 1 – Tulsa at Central Florida (-7.5) – We know some people are going to jump on Tulsa but we thought this line was too low. Check out Central Florida’s games sine they lost to South Florida.
Beat Tulsa 44-23 (yeah that is right, they beat them up once already)
Beat Southern Miss 34-17
Beat Marshall 47-13
Beat UAB 45-31
Beat SMU 49-20
Beat UTEP 36-20
Then throw in the fact that Central Florida is undefeated at home this season and you have to like this game. The line opened at 6.5 and we got it at 7.5 and we are not concerned. Check out the against the spread numbers:
Golden Hurricane are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Golden Hurricane are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.
Golden Hurricane are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 conference games.
Golden Hurricane are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Golden Hurricane are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Golden Hurricane are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Golden Hurricane are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Golden Hurricane are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Golden Hurricane are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Knights are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Knights are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 conference games.
We love Central Florida in this game as they throw some extra dirty on this one!!!! Take Central Florida to win and cover!!!
Game 2 – North Texas at Florida International (+2.5) – This one is going to be a pretty surprising pick but we have to do it. Lets take a look at the ATS numbers first:
Mean Green are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games on turf.
Mean Green are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Mean Green are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
Nothing to speak of
That is right….Florida International has nothing good to speak of. North Texas is favored statistically across the board accept for one key area….They can not stop the run compared to Florida International and this little stat tells us that Florida International will cover and possibly win. North Texas is playing for nothing and Florida International is playing for an important first win on the season. We are taking Florida International to cover!!!
Game 3 – Army at Navy (-14) – The Tomb Raider Game. Basically we wanted to show support for our troops by showing you a picture of one of the hottest chicks in the world with a gun. Enjoy!
Navy runs the ball and runs it well, almost 340 yards per game and Army gives up almost 230 yards per game. Navy’s defense is bad but not as bad as Army’ and Army has a terrible offense as well…not as bad as Notre Dame’s but it is putrid. Check out the ATS numbers:
Black Knights are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.
Black Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
Black Knights are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Black Knights are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.
Midshipmen are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in December.
Midshipmen are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
Midshipmen are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games.
Midshipmen are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a bye week.
Midshipmen are 42-20-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Then throw in the fact that the favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings and the Black Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings and you have to love Navy. We almost threw this in as an Eva Mendes bet but we could not pull the trigger in a rivalry game. Take Navy to win and cover!!!!
Game 4 – UCLA at USC (-20) – Murder Game Number 2. We picked the USC/Arizona State game perfectly. USC is on fire right now and beat the living piss out of ASU and left ASU’s QB bloody and in pain. We think this week will be more of a beatdown. It is a revenge game for USC. USC lost last year to UCLA and lost a chance to beat the crap out of Ohio State in the National Championship Game. Check out this clip form last week to see and feel the bloodiness.
Here are the ATS numbers for you:
Bruins are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Bruins are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Southern California.
Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Trojans are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Trojans are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Trojans are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 home games.
Trojans are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 games as a home favorite.
Trojans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
We think USC is the best team in the country right now. The only reason Vegas would set this line this high is because all of the money is picking UCLA and Vegas thinks USC wins by 21 points or more. In addition, UCLA is terrible in the Coliseum and has no offense and we think the revenge factor will be too much for them to overcome. USC wins easily, with a lot of blood and they might actually kill a UCLA player on the field this time around. They came close in Arizona but might get the job done this time. USC wins big and covers!!!
Game 5 – Florida Atlantic at Troy (-15) – The Little Trojans Bowl. the Trojans name is hot. USC is beating people’s asses and Troy is 8 and 2 against the spread on the season. So as a reward our Little Troy Trojans get linked up with the perfect chick ass….a pic from our girl Keyra. Google this chick if you have never seen her ass and videos.
Ay Carumba!!! Gotta love it!!! Here are the ATS numbers:
Owls are 3-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Owls are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog.
Owls are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Owls are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Owls are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Trojans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Trojans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Trojans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games on grass.
Trojans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Trojans are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Trojans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Got it? Troy Trojans represent just like the USC Trojans and lays a beat down. They will reward us for that Keyra ass shot. Troy wins and covers easily!!!
Game 6 – Oregon St. at Oregon (pick em) – Could we really pick this game without showing some authentic Beaver. We did not think so.
Oregon is probably going to end this season like they did last year by losing their last few games and getting blown out in a bowl game once the team realizes they have no chance. We feel bad for them but sympathy does not put cash in our pockets. This game opened as a pick em because Autzen is a brutal place to play and Oregon State has not faired well there the last few times. Dennis Dixon is out for the season and Brady Leaf is doubtful. When you are relying on Brady Leaf you know you are in trouble. Here are the ATS numbers:
Beavers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on turf.
Beavers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
Beavers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Beavers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
Beavers are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 games following a ATS win.
Ducks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Ducks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
Mrs. Flash Flash is picking Oregon. Once again she is picking against us. She is 1-3 on the season and is picking the Ducks because she played touch football in Autzen stadium three Summers ago. Sorry to the Mrs. but you will be wrong again and lose your 4th straight. Oregon State has won two in a row since losing to USC and Oregon has lost two in a row with Dixon out and were shut out by a terrible UCLA team last week. We think Oregon State snaps their streak in Eugene. Take Oregon State to win!!!
Game 7 – Pittsburgh at West Virginia (-28.5) – The Whack Bowl. You probably did not see comments from USC TE Fred Davis this week but he was talking about the prospect of West Virginia facing Missouri for the national championship game. USC tight end Fred Davis is no fan of the current BCS title-game matchup. “Missouri-West Virginia? I don’t like that,’’ Davis said. “That’s a whack bowl game. But I think Oklahoma will beat Missouri anyways.” Yes we are bitter USC blew two games this year and is not playing for a BCS title. We think they have the best team. Alright enough bitching lets see some hot chicks.
We are only looking at one ATS number this week. The Mountaineers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win. So what do you do with this game. West Virginia knows they need to win and they play for the national title. PITT is not that good. West Virginia has been explosive. We think this is a combo of two things. First is the Nebraska syndrome. The Nebraska Syndrome was what Tom Osborne used to do at Nebraska. For home games he would not blow teams out because he would play 2nd, 3rd, 4th string etc… so everybody got a chance to play in front of their family and boosters. We think this has Nebraska Syndrome written all over it. The second thing is one of our weird stats that you just need to trust us on and yes we know we went 0-2 the last time we told you about it but we are going to keep riding the percentages. So we think West Virginia will win but will not be able to cover. Take PITT for the cover!!!
Game 8 – Virginia Tech at Boston College (+4.5) – The Thanks for Trying Game. Jessica Simpson tried at her marriage, tried at an acting career and tried to look smart. Well thanks for trying Miss Simpson. You are hot as hell though.
So we want to thank Virginia Tech for trying. They tried damn hard to beat BC last time and they are trying really hard now to impress down the stretch. Well we want to thank them for trying cause trying does not put money in our pockets. We do not know one expert that is giving BC a chance in this game. BC was outplayed down in Blacksburg for 57 minutes but pulled out the win and that was on the road. The experts say Virginia Tech has been playing like one of the best teams in the country and there are even some fools lobbying for them to play in the national championship game. Please!!! Boston College has shown that they get the job done and win football games. We love that they are the underdog and are getting 4.5 points. Take a look at the ATS numbers:
Hokies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
Eagles are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog.
Eagles are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss.
Eagles are 35-17 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Heads up the Hokies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 meetings and the underdog is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings. We are not sure BC will win but we think this game will be 3 points or less in margin of victory. BC is not getting any respect and Va Tech is the hot pick this week. Take BC to cover!!!
Game 9 – Tennessee at LSU (-7.5) – The Pamela Anderson Game. What do we know about Pam Anderson…She is hot, she has a sick body and she has Hep C and can literally kill you.
Well Les Miles has a nice coaching pedigree, he has top 3 talent on his team easily, he has one of the best defense in the country but his decision to puruse the Michigan job killed LSU this year. We feel sorry for LSU fans this week. Les Miles is screwing them just like he did to Oklahoma State back in 2004. The nation knows he is going to interview for the Michigan job after the SEC championship game and will likely take that position. So why the hell is he still coaching the Tigers. It is a shame because with a serious coach that is fighting for his own job and for his team, there is no way they lose at home to Arkansas. As we explained last week, Les Miles is a dud when is knows he is going to leave a team… he lost his last regular season game and the bowl game for Oklahoma State in 2004 and now he loses to Arkansas, will probably lose to Tennessee and then bail on the Tigers for Michigan. Shame on you Les Miles. Take a look at the ATS numbers:
Volunteers are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Volunteers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Volunteers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Volunteers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Tigers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.
Tigers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Tigers are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
LSU is simply getting worse on Defense and with Les Miles leaving we think LSU has little to no chance of winning this game. We are not advising the moneyline and we are taking Tennessee and the points. We were right last week against Arkansas and we will be right this week. Bet the Vols!!!
Getting back to Keyra…if you have not witnessed one of her videos you have to check this out. We felt like we needed to leave you with this heading into bowl season. This ass certainly psyches us up. You might need to register with youtube but it is worth it. Trust us.
Flash Flash and Runny
NCAA Football Week 13 Picks: Longhorns and Tigers and Broncos Over The Rainbows…Oh My!!! (Nov. 23 Games)
We are 48-45 on the season, 5-3 for Eva Mendes bets and up 11 units on the season. Not where we want to be but last week’s double Eva Mendes score was sweet!!!! We also have one bet pending on the USC/Arizona State game. Go Trojans!!!
Since it has been so popular we are going to stick with the hot chick theme since YOU, the reader, seems to enjoy it.
Game 1 = Texas at Texas A and M (+5.5) = The Charlize Theron serial killer game. Charlize is one of the hottest women alive but as we learned in her Monster movie, she can disguise herself as a nasty, disgusting looking serial killer. Lets take a look at the good:
We do not even want to post a nasty picture of her because there is really no time and place for that. So what do we have going on in this Texas/A and M game? This is a revenge game for Texas because they lost to A and M last year 12-7. Texas also knows that Oklahoma’s QB is hurt and facing a tough Oklahoma St. team and an Oklahoma loss, coupled with a Texas win can help move Texas a step closer to a BCS bowl game and a chance to play in the Big 12 championship game. These are two big check marks for Texas. Texas A and M is still a mess. They will probably severe ties with their coach in the offseason, at least A and M fans should hope so. Franchione is a mess and a disgrace to the the Program. So right now Texas is disguised as the hot Charlize Theron with their nice uniforms and better talent and a better coach and they know they need to unleash their inner serial killer to win this game, play in the Big 12 championship game and possibly play in a BCS bowl game. Texas is playing for a lot and Texas A and M is playing for a lame duck coach and riding a three game losing streak. Lets look at the ATS numbers:
Longhorns are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Longhorns are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games in November.
Longhorns are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games on grass.
Longhorns are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Texas A and M
Aggies are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Aggies are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Aggies are 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
We love Texas in this game and were surprised the spread was un der two TDs and way under 14 points. We think Texas has everything to play for and A and M is playing for the end of the season. Texas wins big and covers!!!
Game 2 = Arkansas at LSU = The Angelina Jolie/Jennifer Aniston I am Stealing your Man Game!!! We all know what happened in this story. Angelina Jolie, on the set of Mr. and Mrs. Smith, put the moves on and stole Brad Pitt away from Jennifer Aniston. Jennifer Aniston became a mess, was single for a long time, can no longer keep a man and is pretty much a broken woman.
So how the heck does this compare to a football game? I am glad you asked… On Monday, November 19, 2007, Lyoyd Carr stepped down as coach of the Michigan Wolverines and this freed up Les Miles’ dream coaching position. Miles played under Bo Schembechler in 1974 and 1975 and coached on his staff from 1980-1982. We are not alone in thinking like the entire nation….Miles has already mentally checked out and is taking the Michigan job. Now we will take this a step further when he knew he was going to leave Oklahoma State in 2004. In 2004, Oklahoma State lost their last regular season game to Texas Tech 31-15 and lost in their bowl game 33-7. In other words….they were not competitive and got blown out. Now LSU has more talent than the 2004 Oklahoma State teams but we keep our finger on the pulse down in Baton Rouge and the LSU fans are not happy. This LSU team does not seem to be getting better as the season rolls along and the defense is actually getting worse. Lets take a look at the against the spread numbers:
Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Razorbacks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Razorbacks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Razorbacks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in November.
Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Tigers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Also when you throw in that the road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings….all signs point to an Arkansas cover for us. Les Miles will prove to be a distraction, he has shown that he quits on his team when he is going to move on, LSU’s defense is showing signs of bending and we know Arkasas will come in pumped up. We do not think Arkasas wins outright but we are confident they can cover. Take Arkansas to cover as they watch Michigan pull an Angelina Jolie on LSU!!!
Game 3 = Boise State at Hawaii (-3.5) = The Eva Mendes Game is back for a repeat. We love this game and we are betting five times our normal betting unit. We are 5-3 on the season for our Eva bets and we were 2-0 last week with Ohio State and Oklahoma State. Lets take a look at our gal with a solid repeat photo from last week:
And a new one…
Colt Brennan is going to enjoy a Marcus Riley welcome when facing this Boise State squad. In case you missed it…check out Colt’s concussion smack down:
Colt only played two snaps last week against Nevada and Nevada is actually a scrappy squad. Hawaii had to comeback to win that game. We are pretty sure it was a combo of Brennan resting and June Jones saving him for this week. All we have to say is ask Trent Green how long it takes to come back from a serious concussion. Brennan was seriously hurt and is not 100%. And now the ATS numbers:
Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Broncos are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Friday games.
Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Broncos are 26-7-1 ATS in their last 34 games in November.
Broncos are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog.
Broncos are 28-10-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Broncos are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog.
Broncos are 32-13 ATS in their last 45 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Broncos are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Broncos are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Broncos are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 games following a ATS win.
Warriors are 7-19 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on field turf.
Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.
Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Hawaii has lost to Boise State 6 games in a row so this means Boise State knows how to face this offensive system. Look for Boise State to play mistake free football as they control the clock and pound the run. Another reason we love this game is that Boise State is a classic clean sweep game, one of the first times we have seen this for an underdog. They run for far more yards (no surprise there), are more efficient on offense converting third downs at 53.8% versus 46.6% for Hawaii. Boise State also wins the turnover ratio 4 to 1 and Hawaii has 6 more turnovers on offense, which will be a relevant stat. We love Boise State in this game and think they will have no problem covering and we are betting 5 times our normal amount for the Boise State cover. We think Boise State wins outright and might throw additional action on the moneyline but for the purpose of this blog our Eva Mendes bet is on the Boise State cover so take the points, sit back, relax and dream of Eva nude sitting on your lap cause that is how you will feel when this game cums in.
Flash Flash and Runny
P.S. One more blog to go this week with at least 7 more games and one more Eva Mendes bet!!! Please send us an email at email@example.com or leave comments on this blog if you have any questions for us or want us to look at any games for you. We are here for you so you can make money alongside us!!!
We were 4-2 last week but missed our Brinks Truck bet so the Brinks Truck is in the shop this weekend getting tuned up. What we do have is 9 great picks for you this weekend. Because we are always up front and honest…we are 24-18 on the season, 3-3 for Brinks Truck bets and we are up 6 units. The 6 units is a joke and we plan on turning that around ASAP.
For our nine picks this week, we are going to break them down into 4 betting categories. First up is the ” Clean Sweep”. The clean sweep means a team meets our statistical betting criteria. The public data we share with you for the clean sweep is the following:
Offensive rushing yards per game
Offensive 3rd down efficiency
Defensive rushing yards given up per game
Defensive 3rd down efficiency
When a team meets these 5 figures they win more times than not because they control the clock, can move the ball, stop opponents from controlling the clock, stop opponents from moving up and down the field and do not turn the ball over.
The Clean Sweep Games of the Week:
1) Cincy @ Pitt (plus 9.5) – Cincy is going to be very pissed off following their loss to Louisville and PITT just can not get anything going. Even Navy passed all over them last week. Yes Navy passed the ball successfully on PITT. In what could be a turn of events that actually helps PITT, their coach, Dave Wannstedt, tore his achilles tendon and will probable coach the game from the press box. We saw what good old Dave was able to do against Navy and that was coach his team out of a win. Being in the press box and away from the players and flow of the game might help PITT. However, please be serious here, Cincinnati is ninth in the country in scoring average at 40.6 points per game, while Pitt has given up an average of 42.0 points in its last three contests. This game will be ugly. Ride Cincy and their 5 and 1 record against the spread. Easy cash in this one.
2) Miss St. @ West Virginia (minus 24) – Plain and simple stats for this one. Miss. St. can not stop the run and turns the ball over. West Virginia should have no problem taking control of this game. West Virginia is coming off a bye and Pat White should have had plenty of time to get healthy. Last year and on the road, West Virginia won 42-14. We expect this game to be even more ugly. Mountaineers mount the boys from Mississipp and make em squeal like pigs.
3) Kansas @ Colorado (plus 3.5) – Kansas is becoming one of our favorite teams and is undefeated against the spread at 5 and 0. Last year Kansas won 20-15 and this year’s team is a lot better. Colorado just lost 47-20 to the same Kansas State team Kansas beat. This spread should really be over 10. Jayhawks splatter their poo all over the Buffs.
4) Texas @ Baylor (plus 25) – We saw what Kansas could do against Baylor, a 58-10 win and Texas should whoop them even worse. Baylor might be competitive against the cellar dwellers like Notre Dame but they will be hooked by the Horns. Texas in a blowout.
5) Oregon @ Washington (plus 11.5) – Oregon is really hot. We see this as a parallel to the USC team that lost to CAL in 3-OT a few years back. After that loss the Trojans went on a tear, ultimately destroying Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Well this Oregon team, after suffering a disappointing loss to Cal is on fire after destroying Wash. St. 53-7 last week. Oregon is probably the most explosive team in the Pac-10 and will continue to prove it this week. Ducks blow out Washington by more than 20.
6) Oklahoma @ Iowa St. (plus 29.5) – Iowa St. is the Sooners’ red headed step child. All time they are 66-5-2 in the series. What a freakin joke. So the question is not will Oklahoma win but by how much. The Cyclones lost to Texas 56-3 last week and we expect a similar score. Easy win for the Sooners.
The “Wash” Game of the week
Sometimes we look at a game and do not see one clear winner that stands out meaning the teams are essentially even. We have one such game this weekend.
7) Tennessee @ Alabama (pick em) – Tennessee rushes for 19 more yards a game and the teams are equal in offensive 3rd down conversions. On defense, Alabama is a little better against the run and the teams are even in third down conversion percentage. Turnover ratio favors Alabama 6 to 1 and we think this will be the difference. This game dropped to pick em and we love not having to worry about points, picking the home team and the team that turns the ball over less. Roll Tide Roll. Alabama wins this game.
The SEC Road Cover of the Week
8) Auburn @ LSU (minus 10.5) – The SEC has had some great games the last few weeks and the number one lesson to learn is to not bet on the favorite in the higher spread games. Auburn’s defense proved they can play with the Florida offense and will have no problem with the LSU offense. We do not think Auburn wins but we know they will keep it closer than 10.5 points. Against ranked teams Auburn keeps it close; 3 points with South Florida, 3 points with Florida, 2 points with Arkansas. Take Auburn and the points and watch as they strike fear into another SEC team.
The Fever Game
9) Central Michigan @ Clemson (minus 16.5) – Dancin, Dancin, YEAH!!!! We got the fever for LaFevour once again. Central Michigan has been a cover machine the last three weeks and they covered easily. Our boy Dan LaFevour has the Chippewas playing aggressive football and we think they can keep it close with Clemson and certainly closer than the 16.5 points they are getting. Look at these numbers, this game is too easy: Chippewas are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in October. Chippewas are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Chippewas are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Chippewas are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win. Chippewas are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. And then we get to look at Clemson: Tigers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on grass. Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Tigers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. Tigers are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
If these numbers do not convince you to get the Fever for LaFevour than you are in the wrong business. Stop betting, send us your money and in return we will send you a jar of tiddly winks.
On a side note, we both go to the USC/Notre Dame game in South Bend every two years and this weekend will be no different. We normally would put out a prediction on this game but Runny wants to bet USC cause he hates ND and Flash wants to bet ND cause USC has been dog vomint for three weeks in a row. We both think USC wins easily and the Trojans defenders might actually physically kill a Notre Dame player because their offense is so terrible. Notre Dame would be better off playing 11 of those little leprechauns from the Lucky Charms commercial cause USC is going to physically dominate them. Also, if you see two drunk USC clowns in the Notre Dame alumni tent feel free to say hello. We will be the ones double fisting bloodies and beers and heckling the demented leprechaun lovers. How in the hell can BC be favored by 13.5 points in South Bend and the Trojans opened at 20.5 points. At least they dropped down to 18 and continue to go down but give me a freakin break. If Vegas were legit at setting lines this game would have an 8-10 point spread.
*****10/19/2007***** We needed to post this story about USC…Trojans endure harrowing flight
This is big news. There is one other game we can remember this year where this happened and it was when Southern Miss travelled to Boise St and got blown out 38-16 and did not cover the 10.5 point spread. Please remember that these guys are kids and they just were on a plane where they thought they were going to die. It is not surprising that I have seen some “experts” actually pick ND for an outright win now after this news was announced. We still think USC wins but Flash thinks this is even more reason why ND will cover. Runny absolutely refuses to give ND any credit and still is on the USC to cover bandwagon. We are here to share info and we feel like this is important betting information that needs to spread.
We hope you enjoy the picks. We have been winners for 6 of the 7 weeks of the NCAA season and we love our picks this week. If you want any picks from us or reasons why we did not bet a game let us know. Simply post a comment and we will get back to you within a couple of hours. Our money is always where our mouth is and that means we share the fruits of our labor with you,our readers.
Flash Flash and Runny
LSU -18.5 was a joke
Oregon St. -6.5 was a joke
Easy money for all
RPJ Syndicate is 2-0 to start the year
Here are 5 picks for the weekend and for Monday. And as always…our money is on these games right now.
UCLA -16.5 at Stanford – Easy money. UCLA plays great in September and Stanford has one of the worst O lines in NCAA football
CAL -6 over Tenn – Revenge game all the way. CAL needs to show up and come out swinging. Tennessee is in trouble in this one….Ainge is injured, their starting RB is out and their defense is young and inexperienced. CAL all the way in a revenge game
Va Tech -27.5 over East Carolina – Do not mess with America’s team this year. First game at home goes without explanation
West virginia -23.5 over W. Michigan – West Virginia rolls early in the season and has two Heisman candidates. No contest
FSU -3 at Clemson – Bobby brings in Jimbo to run the offense and simply has more horses than Clemson. FSU rolls on the road.
Good luck and we look forward to making more money alongside you this season.
Here is where the syndicate stands right now:
We loaded up the Brinks truck on LSU vs. Mississippi St….Most of our cash is in at 18.5 and we threw some more coinage on it when it dropped to 18. The last time I checked today the spread was 19.5. We would not be surprised to see this go off at kickoff in the 21 point range. LSU will crush them.
Our second game of the night is Oregon St. (-6.5) at home against Utah. This is a nice game when you give less than 7 points. We expect it to be a two touchdown or more win but under 7 is a steal. Oregon St. returns 18 starters form the team that beat USC last year and this squad is always tough at home. Oregon St. has one of the best offensive lines in college football if not the best line in the nation. In 2006, Oregon St. outscored opponents 129 to 55 in the first quarter and we expect hem to get off to a fast start and it will simply be too much for Utah too handle in a hostile environment.
College football is finally here and we are pumped up.
Let us know through the comment board if you ever want our thoughts on any particular game. We are here to share our insights for now so we can prove to you that our methodology successfully picks winners and will help keep you ahead of the vig. We do not believe that football is about picking winners and losers in every game; we are here to find the favorable spreads and situations that other people are glancing over or taking for granted. We might have weeks where we pick zero or one game but we will have others where we will pick 10 if we see opportunities. Stay tuned for more commentary on this weekend and Monday’s games. We are watching the lines and will pounce when the opportunity is there. Also, we always put our money where our mouth is and will share the wins and the losses with all of our followers.
Flash Flash and Runny
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