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Week 6 2008: Colin Cowherd’s Wheel of Genius NCAA Football Picks

Colin had another tough week last week going 2-3. He is now 13-10-1 on the season. He also got the Ohio State game wrong last week. Not gonna bust on him this week and we will see what he says his record actually is. We are keeping track though so we know what is up and can keep our readers informed of any shenanigans. He just gave his picks and did not even say what his record was. Pretty funny stuff and he made fun of himself. Here are his Wheel of Genius picks:

Oregon at USC Trojans (-16) – Oregon won last year and USC certainly remembers the game. USC has won 25 straight night games at home and Pete Carroll will have his team ready to play. They lost last week and know they need to dominate to get back to a BCS title game. Oregon is playing without Justin Roper and will be playing a young QB. The Herd hates young QBs on the road. USC wins 44-24.

Florida State at Miami (minus a couple) – This is FSU’s first road game and they are playing with a young QB. Herd hates young QBs on the road. Miami has a great run defense and will force FSU to pass and force FSU’s young QB to pass and into mistakes. Miami wins 24-13.

Kentucky at Alabama (-16.5) – The HErd actually thinks this line should be higher. Kentucky is 0-19-1 against the Tide in Alabama. The Tide stunk in the second half of Georgia and Saban will be in their ears all week to play hard for a complete game and then they can rest next week on their bye. Kentucky has a young QB and will be playing on the road. Alabama wins 37-13.

UCONN at UNC (-7) – UCONN RB is great but their starting QB is hurt and out for 6 weeks. Young QB on the road getting his first start in a night game. Score should be low but UNC covers and wins 28-17.

Ohio State (-1) at Wisconsin – This is The Herd’s pick of the year so far. Wisconsin is in the middle of a brutal 3 game stretch. Wisconsin’s passing offense is 80th in the nation and Ohio State still has the 12th rated defense even with the USC washout. Ohio State D does not struggle against immobile QBs. Ohio State dominates and wins 27-17.

October 3, 2008 Posted by | Alabama Crimson Tide, Betting, Buckeyes, Colin Cowherd, ESPN, Florida State Seminoles, Football, Free NCAA picks, Gambling, Kentucky Wildcats, Miami Hurricanes, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, North Carolina, Ohio State, Oregon Ducks, Pete Carroll, Sports, Uconn, Uncategorized, USC Trojans, Wheel of Genius, Winning Picks, Wisconsin Badgers | 9 Comments

Week 6 NCAA Free Football Picks (10/4/2008): Redemption – The Backwoods Southern Lawyer Picks SEC Winners

Well the Backwoods Southern Lawyer wilted under the pressure last week posting a 1-3 record. He sent me the following email and is back for another week…..

An off weekend brought yours truly dangerously close to .500 for September. The philosophical question for college football fans after last week is whether Ole Miss’ upset of Florida shows that the SEC is strong top to bottom or just weak at the top….. and while you ponder that, chew on these picks for this week:

Take FLORIDA (minus 24) at ARKANSAS. After last weekend’s setback against Ole Miss, Tim Tebow gave a teary-eyed apology to the Gator Nation and swore: “But I promise you one thing: a lot of good will come out of this. You have never seen any player in the entire country play as hard as I will play the rest of this season, and you’ll never see someone push the rest of the team as hard as I will push everybody the rest of this season. And you’ll never see a team play harder than we will the rest of this season. God bless.” I, for one, believe him. Even though Florida is banged up and Arkansas is due to show up sometime (and I am loathe to give away 24 in any SEC match-up), I just have a feeling that Florida will take out their frustrations on the hapless Razorbacks and roll to a 5 TD victory.

Take OLE MISS (minus 2.5) vs. SOUTH CAROLINA. I usually look for teams to bounce after emotional wins like the one Ole Miss had over Florida last week, but I think this is a tale of two teams going in opposite directions. Ole Miss is a couple of plays away from being 5-0 right now. They’ve been re-energized by their new coach and the team and fan base is starting to believe (especially after last week). South Carolina is starting to wonder whether Spurrier is what they thought he was when they hired him, and the switch to Andy Garcia, while necessary, may cause some growing pains. I look for Ole Miss to win by 9+ points.

Take KENTUCKY (plus 15.5) at ALABAMA. The vogue pick this weekend is to take Alabama because Kentucky hasn’t played anyone, ‘Bama is the hottest team in the country and Saban is better than Bear Bryant, Vince Lombardi and Jesus put together. However, I’m here to tell you my friends that Kentucky is a quality club. They beat Western Kentucky worse than Alabama did, and Alabama threw in a stinker after their big game with Clemson, just like they might do this week after their big win in Athens. I think Kentucky battles valiantly and keeps it within 2 TDs.

TAKE AUBURN (minus 4) at VANDERBILT. Yes, Vandy is 4-0 and Auburn is 1-4 ATS this year, but the fact remains that one team is Vanderbilt and the other is Auburn. Order will be restored in the SEC this weekend, and Vandy will realize that any school with incoming freshmen averaging 1,400 points on their SAT scores has no business atop the SEC East. Besides, Vandy’s strength is in its running game, which Auburn will stuff. Auburn’s offense is due for a break out game and will find a way to put at least three scores on the board. I like Auburn by 10.

That’s the night the lights went out in Georgia
That’s the night that they hung an innocent man
Don’t trust your soul to no back woods Southern lawyer
Cause the judge in the town’s got bloodstains on his hand

Bonjour Mes Amis,

Backwoods Southern Lawyer

October 3, 2008 Posted by | Alabama Crimson Tide, Arkansas Razorbacks, Auburn Tigers, Betting, ESPN, Florida Gators, Free NCAA picks, Gambling, Kentucky Wildcats, Mississippi, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Ole Miss, SEC, South Carolina Gamecocks, Sports, Steve Spurrier, Tim Tebow, Uncategorized, Vanderbilt, Winning Picks | Leave a comment

2007-2008 NCAA Football Bowl Preview: RPJ Syndicate’s Guide to Making Money

We concluded the NCAA Football regular season with a record of 59-54. We were 6-4 on Eva Mendes bets, which were our super bets meaning we bet 5 times our normal unit. This approach led us to win 13 units on the season. Take away the Vig (about 10%) and we are working with with just under 12 units….11.7 to be exact. We would have liked to win more but we won and that is a lot better than other so called “experts can say”.

The reason we started our blog is because we went 19-4 during last season’s Bowl Season. We crushed it!!!! Combining our record with an article in the Wall Street Journal about a sports picker out in Cal-Berkely who was giving away his picks for free and winning at a nice rate. Well this Cal-Berkeley guy made his picks for pay when he had enough of a fan base and he was making $10k a month in his first few months on top of his gambling money. We know our system and our picking are world class and we are revealing all of our picks to you for free. You the reader are reaping the benefits of a free winning system. The point of gambling is not to have more fun while watching games…the point is to make cold hard cash and when you follow us, as we proved during this season, you make cash!!!

Now the point of this Bowl season is to take your/our 11.7 units and turn that into a lot more. We are going to give you specific reasons why we are picking a game and sometimes we might just tell you to pick a game just like we did with our pick of PITT to cover against West Virginia for their December 1 game. Our betting system is based on a trial and tested system and we always put our money where our mouth is with no exceptions.

For this bowl season we are going to set up a system for you where you bet 1,2,3,4,5 and the Super Bet for as many betting units as you are willing to risk. The Super Bet is our 99.99999% lock!! These bets are called:

The Super Bet = The Keyra Shake that Money Maker bet – These will be our super lock bets. The bets we are taking out second mortgages, bank loans, hitting up friends and relatives…you get the picture. Bet as much as you can stomach bets.

5 Unit Bet = The Eva Mendes Bet – We love us some Eva and think she is a Goddess. Since we renamed the Brinks truck bet the Eva Mendes we went 3-1 with it.

4 Unit Bet = The Shakira Hips Don’t Lie bet- We love us some Shakira and her hip shaking bits. In honor of this Columbian love ma-cheen, we named one of our bets after her. For the Shakira bets, place 4 times your typical unit of bet.

3 Unit Bet = The Dahm Triplets bet-A lot of great things come in threes. The Dahm Triplets are no exception. Indeed, they are Dahm hot!! For these bets, bet 3 times your typical betting unit… one for each one of these lovely ladies. Be sure to send the vig to their parents as thank you for gracing us with them. The world is definitely 3 times better since they were delivered from the heavens.

2 Unit Bet = The Derek Jeter Bet – In honor of one of our favorite athletes, the 2 unit bet will be a tribute to all of the women Derek Jeter has allegedly slept with including, Jessica Biel, Scarlett Johanson, Mariah Carey, Anna Kournikouva, Miss Universes, models, etc…. We have a ton of chicks to choose for this bet in honor of our man Derek Jeter.

1 Unit Bet = The Heidi Klum bet. You know she is hot but her judgement must be suspect cause she married one of the ugliest human beings outside of Scottie Pippen, Sam Cassell and Charlie Weis (of course we took a dig at Notre Dame in this blog). We love the Heidi Klum but something is off with her judgement so we are only comfortable making her a a one unit bet.

Below is the schedule for all bowl games this season. We are going to pick as many games as our system spits out. Do not expect us to pick every game but we will have action on most of them. We will probably post our picks on this blog 1-2 days before each bowl. Please feel free to ask us any questions or post comments on this blog. Our email is rpjsyndicate@gmail.com.

Sincerely,

Flash Flash and Runny

2007-08 College Football Bowl Schedule

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia
Utah (-9) vs. Navy
Dec. 20, 9 p.m.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Memphis (+2) vs. Florida Atlantic
Dec. 21, 8 p.m.

Papajohns.com Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Cincinnati (-11)
Dec. 22, 1 p.m.

New Mexico Bowl
Nevada vs. New Mexico (-3)
Dec. 22, 4:30 p.m.

Pioneer Las Vegas
UCLA vs. BYU (-5.5)
Dec. 22, 8 p.m.

Sheraton Hawaii
Boise State (-10.5) vs. East Carolina
Dec. 23, 8 p.m.

Motor City
Purdue (-9.5) vs. Central Michigan
Dec. 26, 7:30 p.m.

Pacific Life Holiday
Arizona State (+1.5) vs. Texas
Dec. 27, 8 p.m.

Champs Sports
Boston College (-3) vs. Michigan State
Dec. 28, 5 p.m.

Texas
TCU vs. Houston (+3.5)
Dec. 28, 8 p.m.

Emerald
Maryland vs. Oregon State (-4.5)
Dec. 28, 8:30 p.m.

Meineke Car Care
UConn vs. Wake Forest (-3.5)
Dec. 29, 1 p.m.

AutoZone Liberty
UCF vs. Mississippi State (+3)
Dec. 29, 4:30 p.m.

Valero Alamo
Penn State vs. Texas A and M (+5.5)
Dec. 29, 8 p.m.

PetroSun Independence
Alabama (-3.5) vs. Colorado
Dec. 30, 8 p.m.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces
California (-4) vs. Air Force
Dec. 31, 12:30 p.m.

Roady’s Humanitarian
Georgia Tech (-4.5) vs. Fresno State
Dec. 31, 2 p.m.

Brut Sun
South Florida (-6.5) vs. Oregon
Dec. 31, 2 p.m.

Gaylord Hotels Music City
Kentucky (-1) vs. Florida State
Dec. 31, 4 p.m.

Insight
Indiana vs. Oklahoma State (-4.5)
Dec. 31, 6 p.m.

Chick-fil-A
Clemson (-2.5) vs. Auburn
Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m.

Outback
Wisconsin vs. Tennessee (-3.5)
Jan. 1, 2008, 11 a.m.

AT and T Cotton
Missouri (-3.5) vs. Arkansas
Jan. 1, 2008, 11:30 a.m.

Gator
Texas Tech vs. Virginia (+5.5)
Jan. 1, 2008, 1 p.m.

Capital One
Michigan vs. Florida (-10.5)
Jan. 1, 2008, 1 p.m.

Rose Bowl presented by Citi
Illinois vs. USC (-13.5)
Jan. 1, 2008, 4:30 p.m.

Allstate Sugar
Hawaii vs. Georgia (-9.5)
Jan. 1, 2008, 8:30 p.m.

Tostitos Fiesta
Oklahoma (-6.5) vs. West Virginia
Jan. 2, 2008, 8 p.m.

FedEx Orange
Virginia Tech (-3) vs. Kansas
Jan. 3, 2008, 8 p.m.

International
Rutgers (-9.5) vs. Ball State
Jan. 5, 2008, Noon

GMAC
Bowling Green vs. Tulsa (-4)
Jan. 6, 2008, 8 p.m.

Allstate BCS Championship Game
LSU (-6) vs. Ohio State
Jan. 7, 2008, 8 p.m.

December 4, 2007 Posted by | Air Force Falcons, Alabama Tide, Arizona State, Arkansas Razorbacks, Auburn Tigers, Ball State Cardinals, BCS, Big East, Big Ten, Boise State Broncos, Boston College, Bowling Green, BYU Cougars, California, Central Florida, Central Michigan, Charlie Weis, Clemson, Clemson Tigers, Colorado Buffaloes, Dahm Triplets, Derek Jeter, East Carolina, East Carolina Pirates, Eva Mendes, Florida, Florida Atlantic, Florida Gators, Florida State Seminoles, Free NCAA picks, Fresno State, Gambling, Georgia Bulldogs, Georgia Tech, Hawaii Rainbows, Heidi Klum, Houston, Illinois, Indiana Hoosiers, Kansas Jayhawks, Kentucky, Kentucky Wildcats, Keyra Augustina, LSU, LSU Tigers, Maryland, Memphis, Michigan, Michigan State, Midshipmen, Mississippi State, Missouri, Navy, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Nevada, New Mexico, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Oregon Ducks, Oregon State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, South Florida, Southern Miss, TCU, Tenn, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas Longhorns, Texas Tech, Trojans, Tulsa, UCLA, Uconn, USC, USC Trojans, Utah, UVA, VaTech, Virginia Cavaliers, Virginia Tech, Virginia Tech Hokies, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Winning Picks, Wisconsin Badgers | Leave a comment

NCAA Week 6 Football Picks: The Return of the Brinks Truck Bet – Load UP!!!!

Lets get down to business…..RPJ Syndicate is 19-14 on the season, we are up 13 betting units, we have never had a losing week and our money is where our mouth is. Can you hear the crisp sound of fresh hundies? We can!!!! We have three games for you this week and the Brinks Truck bet is back from a one week layoff.

Thursday, October 4, 2007

Game 1: Kentucky (+4) at South Carolina – This is the type of game we dream about. Kentucky is 4-0 against the spread (ATS) on this short season, they rush for more than 80 yards more per game than the Gamecocks, they convert 53.7% of their third down conversions versus 42% for the Cocks and they have a ball hawking defense that has taken the ball away 14 times for a +7 turnover ratio. The Cocks are minus 4 in the turnover ratio. We do not even think The Cocks should be favored in this one and are happy for the 4 points. I have nothing negative to say about Kentucky but the Gamecocks are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. So we think the game will be close, Kentucky will pound the run and wear down South Carolina by the second half to pull away and win this game. Kentucky all the way!!!!

Saturday, October 6, 2007

The BRINKS TRUCK bet….this is the bet where we bet 5 times our normal betting amount and we are 3-1 on the season with Brinks Truck picks.

Game 2: South Florida (-16.5) @ Florida Atlantic – This one will not be close and in the mascot battle a Bull will beat the piss out of an Owl any day of the week. South Florida is 3-0 ATS this season, runs for more on offense, converts more 3rd downs, gives up less rushing yards on defense, and its defense holds opponents to a lower third down conversion rate. In other words, the Owls will not be hooting after this one and will probably be declawed and have their beaks filed down. The one interesting stat is that the Owls are actually +12 in the turnover ratio game while South Florida is +8. Here are some other numbers to think about:

Bulls are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on Grass. Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite.

Owls are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss. Owls are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Owls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Owls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. Owls are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.

Load up on South Florida. This one is a no brainer!!!

Game 3: Nebraksa @ Missouri (-7) – This one screams Missouri across the board. Missouri rushes for more yards on defense, converts more third downs on offense, holds opponents to less yards rushing and holds offenses to less third down conversions than Nebraska. Throw in the fact that Missouri is +4 and Nebraksa is -2 in the turnover ratio and you have a clear favorite here. Even though Nebraska leads the all-time series 63-34-3, and posted a 34-20 victory last season. The Huskers are 27-18-1 at Missouri, but have not won there since a 36-3 rout in 2001. Keller has shows time and again that he crumbles in big games. He crumbled at Arizona St. and he crumbles for Nebraska in big games. So. Cal has gotten to him twice now. Cornhuskers are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Cornhuskers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. Cornhuskers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Cornhuskers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0. Cornhuskers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cornhuskers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Cornhuskers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Cornhuskers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. In other words…..Missouri wins this by more than 7 points!!!!

Feel free to post on our blog. We enjoy seeing your picks and we are happy to analyze any game for you. We looked at tons of games this weekend and came away with only three so we have a lot more information to share if you want it. Have fun and we will see you at the bank!!!

Flash and Runny

October 4, 2007 Posted by | BCS, Big East, Bulls, Cornhuskers, ESPN, Florida Atlantic, Football, Gambling, Gamecock, Kentucky, Kentucky Wildcats, Missouri, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Owls, SEC, South Carolina Gamecocks, South Florida, Tigers, USC, Wildcats, Winning Picks | 2 Comments

Week 5 NCAA Football Picks: 99 problems but picking winners ain’t one!!!

Here we go again for week 5. We are 15-10, have never had a losing week this season and are up 13 units in total when you count our Brinks truck bets (betting 5 times your normal amount). We do not have a Brinks truck bet for you this week but we do have 8 solid picks. We want to expand a little bit on some of the stats we use before we get into the nitty gritty. We look at rushing yards per game on offense and defense, third down conversion rate on offense and defense and turnover ratio. Why these stats…it is simple!!! I do not need to explain turnovers. Turnovers simply kill a team. As far as rushing and third down conversion, this is simply a factor of game control and game domination. If a team can rush more and convert more third down than its opponents while committing less turnovers; they are going to win plain and simple, control the clock and wear down opposing defenses. Just sharing some of our little tricks. And now for the picks:

Saturday, September 29, 2007

1) Akron Zips at UCONN (-15) – Here are the numbers….UCONN rushes for almost 60 yards a game more that Akron and converts 39.1% of their first down conversions while Akron only converts 25.4%. On defense, Akron gives up 206.8 rushing yards a game and lets its opposition convert 41.9% of its third down conversion chances while UCONN only gives up 83.8 yards a game rushing lets its opponents convert 23.6% of third down conversions. Last but not least, UCONN has a ball hawking defense and is plus 9 in the turnover ratio this season. Here are some against the spread (ATS) numbers…Huskies are 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 non-conference games. Huskies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Huskies are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games. Akron is 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Zips are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Zips are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Zips are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Go with UCONN all the way; if anything, bet against a team named The Zips. Idiotic mascot name.

2) Notre Dame at Purdue (-22) – I hope this game really does not need any explaining. We told you last week how bad Notre Dame is and guess what they are still terrible. They can’t rush, can’t stop the run, can’t convert third down conversions, open up the flood gates and let teams convert third downs and they are minus 2 in the turnover ratio game. I could run down how bad Notre Dame is against the spread in every situation but it is too long to fit in this blog. Purdue has a great offense and is playing at home. Although Purdue is 4-10 ATS in their last 10 home games, the Boilermakers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater and we think this is the stat that is more telling especially when you couple it with the following: Boilermakers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Boilermakers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Boilermakers are 6-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Boilermakers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Purdue will kick the lucky charms out of the funny little green leprechauns this weekend. Purdue all the way!!!

3) Florida Atlantic Owls @ Kentucky (-22) – Kentucky is on a roll. They more than double Fl. Atlantic’s rushing output per game 227.2 versus 111.2 and they are far more efficient converting third downs. On the defensive side, Fl. Atlantic gives up more yards rushing than they themselves rush for and allow teams to convert 47.4% of their third down conversions. The one place where Fl. Atlantic has the edge is that they are plus 13 in the turnover ratio margin versus Kentucky’s plus 6. Some other tidbits: Wildcats are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on Grass. Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Wildcats are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games in September. Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. As far as the Owls go: Owls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Owls are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Owls are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. Owls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. We do not think this will be close and do not fear the 22 points you have to give. Kentucky rolls in this one.

4) Syracuse at Miami-Ohio (+1.5) – The Cuse showed up huge in their road win at Louisville and on paper they really are not as bad as the media experts want you to believe especially compared to Miami-Ohio. The Cuse is more efficient on offense converting third downs, gives up less rushing yards on defense and by some bizarre miracle they are actually plus 3 in the turnover ratio while Miami-Ohio is minus 4. Orange are 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. MAC. Orange are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in September. Orange are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. Redhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big East. Redhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September. Redhawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Cuse will ride the momentum and put the Orange squeeze on Miami-Ohio and win outright. Go Cuse!!!

5) Clemson @ Georgia Tech (+3) – Georgia Tech is coming off a disappointing road loss and is very banged up. Injuries have played a big factor in the team’s recent downturn. Tailback Tashard Choice, who leads the team with 356 net rushing yards and is second with four touchdowns, played only two possessions last week after attempting to return from a hamstring injury. Choice, safety Djay Jones, linebacker Shane Bowen and offensive tackle Jacob Lonowski are questionable due to injuries, while starting fullback Mike Cox and receiver James Jones missed portions of last week’s game. On the other side of the ball Clemson’s two headed running back monster keeps racking up yards. These teams rush for a very similar amount but the difference is in their offense’s efficiency. Clemson converts 42% of their third down conversions and Georgia Tech only converts 20.8%. This spread is only three and we think Georgia Tech is too banged up to compete. Clemson wins easily and covers.

6) Auburn @ Florida (-18) – This is an interesting game. Auburn started the season in the top 25 and was supposed to be one of the best teams in the SEC. Florida has been crushing people and faced a scare against Ole Miss last week. We are going off the cuff with this pick because on paper, using the stats I mentioned all the way through this post, this looks like an easy walk for Florida. Florida rushes for more yards and is more efficient on offense and stops the run better than Auburn and stops teams on third down tries more often and they are plus three in the turnover margin versus Auburn’s minus 3. They ATS numbers tell a different story though….Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Tigers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Gators are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Gators are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 conference games. Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. The Florida number that really jumps out at us is that they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 ATS. This is telling that they play SEC teams close. All teams will be gunning for the defending champ. This is why USC is never good against the spread because teams bring the kitchen sick, the toilet, the washing machine, etc… when they face elite squads. Auburn has the talent to match Florida on defense, if not be better, and we think this game will be far closer than the 18 point spread. Take Auburn on the road to cover, who knows they might even win.

7 ) Ohio St. @ Minnesota (+23.5) – Ohio St. is on a big roll. The stats you need to know here are that Minnesota can not stop anybody on defense and they are minus 12 in the turnover ratio, one of the worst in the country. Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on Turf. Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September. Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite. Buckeyes are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 conference games. Buckeyes are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win. Buckeyes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Golden Gophers are 3-7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Golden Gophers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater. Golden Gophers are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Golden Gophers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Ohio St. rolls easily here and covers with no problem.

8 ) Cincinnati @ San Diego St. Aztecs (+15) – We love the Bearcats. They have caused 19 turnovers on the season and are flat out nasty on defense. The Aztecs can not stop the run and Cincy will have a field day. Throw in the fact that the Aztecs are a passing team and we envision this turning into turnover city. Just ask Oregon St. what can happen when you get behind and need to pass against these guys. Bearcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Bearcats are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on Grass. Bearcats are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win. Bearcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Bearcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Aztecs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Aztecs are 4-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Aztecs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. Aztecs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog. The Bearcats will maul the Aztecs and cover this one easily. We were surprised the spread was not 21 points or more.

Please feel free to post your own picks or to ask us to pick games. We have tons of stats and performed a ridiculous amount of resaearch this week. We always put our money where our mouth is and we are enjoying a great year. Good luck and may Notre Dame continue to lead the nation in offensive ineptitude!!

Flash Flash and Runny

September 27, 2007 Posted by | Akron Zips, Auburn Tigers, BCS, Bearcats, Betting, Big East, Big Ten, Boilermakers, Buckeyes, Clemson, ESPN, Fighting Irish, Florida, Florida Atlantic, Florida Gators, Football, Gambling, Georgia Tech, Golden Gophers, Huskies, Irish, Kentucky, Kentucky Wildcats, Maryland, Miami Ohio, Minnesota, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Orangemen, Owls, Pac-10, Purdue, Rutgers, San Diego St., SEC, Syracuse, Terrapins, Uconn, Wildcats, Yellow Jackets | 1 Comment

NCAA Week 3 Football Picks – Let the good times roll!!!!

As always…we will start with our record…it is 8-5 overall and 2-0 within the 8-5 when we see one game we bet 5 times our normal bet. Last but not least…our money is where our mouth is on every bet we discuss. We have 7 opportunities right now that we are going to discuss and we have one game we are watching and waiting for the spread to drop half a point. Make sure you pay close attention to the lines we are betting. Some people complained they pushed with West Virginia last week or even lost but if you look at the spread we bet we hit it. In order to do this successfully you need to have more than one online account and always get the best spread out there. And now with the picks:

Thursday games

West Virginia (-16.5) at Maryland – Get on the West Virginia bandwagon. They started slow on the road against Marshall last week but poured it on in the second half to cover for us. Every team needs some adversity now and again and we do not see West Virginia starting slow in this one. Slaton and White are both Heisman candidates and their coach loves to pour it on and give these guys an opportunity to do something. Maryland does deserve some respect, they have a ball control offense and they have improved on defense since West Virginia blasted them 45-24 last year. We just do not think it is enough. We think you will get the West Virginia team that showed up in the second half against Marshall, not the first half. A lot of the “experts” are picking the Maryland cover but we do not see it. Mountaineers roll.

TCU (-8) at Air Force – TCU is the real deal even if their score did not show it last week against Texas. We remember TCU leading at halftime and watching a tie game at 10-10 at the end of three quarters. We think they will be pissed off they let one slide away last week and they will lay the brunt of their anger on Air Force. Here are some stas we love: TCU is 9-2 against the spread versus teams with a winning record and 19-7 in their last 26 overall. Air Force is 0-8 against the spread in their last 8 on grass and 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games. TCU wins going away.

Saturday games

The Brinks truck 5 times normal bet game is….drum roll please….Louisville (-6.5) at Kentucky – Everybody knows Louisville can not play defense but they sure can play offense. We think this spread should have been more in the 14-17 point range. We love picking apart spreads where the SEC plays a non-conference team because we think the SEC is overrated this year but all of the SEC homers are going to pound their teams. Louisville will have no problem scoring on Kentucky and the defense will play well enough to win by two touchdowns. We do not think this is a risky bet at all and are loading up the Brinks truck on this one and betting 5 times our normal limit. Here are some great numbers:

Louisville is 6-2 against the spread versus SEC teams in their last 8
Louisville is 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 versus Kentucky

These teams are not much different than the teams that faced off last year when Louisville won 59-28 at home. Bet Louisville and be very happy.

Notre Dame (-7.5) at Michigan – Notre Dame is flat out bad and does not know how to handle the blitz and Michigan is going to start a freshman QB. Sounds like a gangbuster of a game. Getting down to it….Michingan does have the defense to limit Notre Dame’s offense. They will blitz and blitz some more. Also, Michigan really suffered against teams running the spread offense that had a lot of speed, this is something Notre Dame does not have. We assume ND will try and pass a lot more but it will really not matter. We would not be surprised to see Michigan get revenge for their 0-2 start and win by 21.

How fun is this stat courtesy of Pat Forde at ESPN: Of the 856 points Notre Dame has scored with Weis as head coach, 19 of them have been scored by players who originally committed to and signed with him. That includes the defensive touchdown, the extra point and two field goals that constitute this season’s scoring. A Weis recruit has scored exactly one offensive touchdown in 27 games: George West on an 11-yard run last season against Purdue, one of three times West touched the ball from scrimmage in 2006.

Notre Dame is pathetic.

Western Michigan at Missouri (-20) – Missouri is one of our favorite teams this year and is 2-0 against the spread in this short season. Add to it that Missouri is 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 home games. Western Michigan has not shown anything this year and we expect a similar result to Western Michigan/West Virginia when the score was 62-24. Most people have not heard about Missouri QB Chase Daniel but he is the real deal and will play on Sundays. Missouri rolls easily in this one.

Tennessee at Florida (-8) – We looked long and hard at this spread and Vegas is basically saying that Florida is two points better than CAL. The Cal spread was -6. Florida’s loss of Andre Caldwell is a big name lost but not a big impact for the team as Florida is very deep, especially on offense. Florida is 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 SEC games but we think this case will be different. Tennessee is banged up and has already shown that they do not have the defense to stop an elite offense and Florida is playing in the swamp. We think Florida can easily win by more than 10 just like CAL did. This will be a great game to watch because we plan on comparing Florida to Cal and it might become the case that CAL is better than the number 2 team (Florida) in the SEC. Who woulds thunk it? Us of course!!!

UVA at UNC (-3) – This is an easy one. UNC all the way. UVA only had 202 yards of offense against Duke. UNC has a lot of young players and a lot of talent and a winning attitude. They will rebound after a tough loss to East Carolina. UNC wins easily in this one.

***On a side note….we are wathcing the UCLA (-14) at Utah game because we want to bet this on UCLA if we can get a -13.5 spread or better. UCLA should blow them out but we do not want a push at -14. If you can get -13.5 or better take it and let us know where you got it because we want to get on this game.

Let us know what you think. Feel free to leave comments or to ask us to evaluate a game.

May your pockets be deep and filled with CASH!!!

Flash and Runny

September 13, 2007 Posted by | Betting, Big East, Big Ten, California, Cavaliers, Duke, ESPN, Fighting Irish, Florida, Florida Gators, Football, Gambling, Horned Frogs, Kentucky, Kentucky Wildcats, Marshall, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, Mountaineers, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pac-10, SEC, Tar Heels, TCU, Tennessee, Terrapins, UCLA, Utah, Utah Utes, UVA, Vegas, Volunteers, W. Michigan, West Virginia, Western Michigan, Wildcats, Winning Picks, Wolverines | Leave a comment

SEC Bias Infiltrates the Coaches Ranks

USA Today put out their annual pre-season NCAA college football coaches poll today and this thing is a joke. Based on this disgrace I am not even going to bother paying attention to this poll this season. The SEC bias as being the toughest and best league in football has now breached the ranks of this poll. Lets take a look to see what I am talking about.

Check out the USA Today Top 25 Coaches’ Poll by clicking here

Now scroll down to the bottom to see who the coaches are in this poll. I am actually going to paste this info in so you can see (Please note names in bold):

The USA TODAY Board of Coaches is made up of 60 head coaches at Division I-A institutions. All are members of the American Football Coaches Association. This season’s board: Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech; Mike Bellotti, Oregon; Bret Bielema, Wisconsin; Larry Blakeney, Troy; Bobby Bowden, Florida State; Tommy Bowden, Clemson; Jeff Bower, Southern Mississippi; Art Briles, Houston; Mack Brown, Texas; Bill Callahan, Nebraska; Neil Callaway, UAB; Lloyd Carr, Michigan; Mario Cristobal, Florida International; Sylvester Croom, Mississippi State; Bill Cubit, Western Michigan; Mark Dantonio, Michigan State; Butch Davis, North Carolina; Bill Doba, Washington State; Randy Edsall, Connecticut; Dennis Franchione, Texas A&M; Phillip Fulmer, Tennessee; Jeff Genyk, Eastern Michigan; Joe Glenn, Wyoming; Jim Grobe, Wake Forest; Dan Hawkins, Colorado; Pat Hill, Fresno State; Steve Kragthorpe, Louisville; Mike Leach, Texas Tech; Rocky Long, New Mexico; Sonny Lubick, Colorado State; Bill Lynch, Indiana; Doug Martin, Kent State; Les Miles, LSU; Shane Montgomery, Miami (Ohio); Hal Mumme, New Mexico State; Joe Novak, Northern Illinois; Houston Nutt, Arkansas; Tom O’Brien, North Carolina State; George O’Leary, Central Florida; Gary Patterson, TCU; Chris Petersen, Boise State; Mark Richt, Georgia; Mike Riley, Oregon State; Rich Rodriguez, West Virginia; Greg Schiano, Rutgers; Howard Schnellenberger, Florida Atlantic; Mark Snyder, Marshall; Frank Solich, Ohio; Steve Spurrier, South Carolina; Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee State; Bob Stoops, Oklahoma; Jeff Tedford, California; Joe Tiller, Purdue; Bob Toledo, Tulane; Dick Tomey, San Jose State; Jim Tressel, Ohio State; Tommy Tuberville, Auburn; Charlie Weis, Notre Dame; Tyrone Willingham, Washington; Ron Zook, Illinois.

Ok what did you notice? I noticed 7 SEC coaches are part of this poll, that is more than 10% of the entire group of coaches. Now lets take a look and see how many SEC teams received votes/points:

LSU = 1,372
Florida = 1,278
Georgia = 604
Auburn = 595
Tennessee = 583
Arkansas = 360
South Carolina = 90
Alabama = 16
Kentucky = 1

So what do these numbers tell us? They tell us that the coaches gave points to 9 out of 12 teams in the SEC. This is a complete joke. There were not even 9 SEC teams that finished with an overall winning record last year. Who are these SEC coaches trying to fool? It is more sour grapes and complaining by the likes of Les Miles. These coaches are making excuses for their teams; excuses that their schedules are SOOOOOO hard that they deserve a break at the end of the year and should be playing in meaningful BCS games. Well last time I looked you need to play the schedule and conference games you were dealt and if you perform well in those games than you deserve to play for a title. Instead of the majority of SEC coaches scheduling tough out of conference opponents like Southern Cal, they are taking the easy route and hiding behind the likes of Tulane, Middle Tenn St. and the Louisiana, Lafayettes of the world and saying that their conference schedules are SOOOOOOOO extremely difficult that they can schedule Western Wahoo St. for homecoming to give their players a break. Just look around the country you blinded Southern boys….USC is doing a home and away with Ohio St. Notre Dame is picking up Oklahoma for a series. This is the way to beef up a schedule and to gain respect. These 7 coaches that are part of the USA Today poll are simply trying to raise the profile of their programs and their league and they should be held accountable. Keep in mind this is the same poll that gave Duke (0-12 last year) and Memphis (2-10 last year) points this year. Cocahes’ picks should be made public for all to see.

I can not wait for this season to start and all eyes will be on the CAL/TENN early season matchup to see just how good the SEC and Pac-10 really are. I am hoping Tennessee is the favorite in this game so I can bet the farm on CAL. This is a revenge game and CAl will show up in the first half this time around.

Stay tuned for our NCAA preview and NFL preview picks.

Flash Flash

August 3, 2007 Posted by | Alabama Tide, Arkansas Razorbacks, Auburn Tigers, BCS, Coaches Poll, Duke, Florida, Florida Gators, Football, Kentucky Wildcats, Les Miles, LSU, LSU Tigers, Mississippi, NCAA, ncaa football, Pac-10, Pete Carroll, SEC, South Carolina Gamecocks, Sports, Tennessee, Uncategorized, USC, USC Trojans | 1 Comment