We had a nice week last week with a combined 6-1 record. Here is how we stand on the season:
RPJ $yndicate is 5-7
Flash is 3-1
Runny is 8-8
We started our NCAA season a little slow and now are on a roll and the NFL is starting to gear up as well. So lets kick off this party with some hot delicious Keyra Augustina ass…..
RPJ $yndicate picks
San Diego at Miami (+6.5)– Miami is already starting to show signs of The Parcells Plan. Bill is a football genius andhas turned around every single team he has gotten his hands on. This is not a tale of ATS numbersbecause it favors the Chargersin a big way with one exception…Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings. This is an interesting matchup and favors the Dolphins in a lot of stats that we look at. The Dolphins have a better running game, a better run defense andhave learned how to limit turnovers. San Diego has not looked good on the road. They had to come from behind against Denver and could have won andthey had to come from behind against the Raiders andwon. This does not bode well as a trend and Miami will be able to limit San Diego’s touches. We think Miami can keep this game close and we are debating a straight moneyline bet. We are not betting the moneyline yet but we think the Dolphins will certainly cover. Take the Fins and the points.
Atlanta at Carolina (-9.5)– We normally hate big spreads but we love betting against one dimensional teams on the road. Stop the run and you stop the Chiefs. Even the Raiders won in KC by shutting down LJ. Lets look at the ATS numbers:
Chiefs are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Chiefs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 5.
Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 5.
Panthers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Panthers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Panthers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
We think this lines up well for Carolina and we would not be surprised to see a 20 point win. Take Carolina to cover!!!
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (-5)– I wish this line was -3.5 or less but I still think the Jags can win by a TD. Jacksonville really has gotten to Big Ben, sacking him 11 times the last two times they played and Big Ben has been sacked almost 4 times a game this year. Willie Parker is out, Mendenhall is out, Kendall Simmons is out, Casey Hampton is out and Brett Keisel is out. That is way too many outs for Pittsburgh. The ATS numbers:
Steelers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 5.
Steelers are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games in October.
Steelers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Steelers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.
Steelers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.
Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Jaguars are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Jaguars are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 5.
Jaguars are 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
Jaguars are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Jaguars are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Jaguars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Home team is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 meetings.
Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Jacksonville.
I think the Steelers are facing too many injuries and are traveling to Jacksonville. Teams that play on Monday Night and then play on the road in their next game lose outright more than 70% of the times. I will take those odds and the ATS numbers. Jacksonville wins and covers!!!
Flash Flash Picks
Chicago at Detroit (+3.5)– This is a fascinating game but mostly it is a new beginning for the Detroit Lions. The Lions finally rid themselves of the WR happy Matt Millen. It was so fun to have Matt Millen around because that made Al Davis feel like his retarded decisions actually belonged in the NFL.
The ATS numbers:
Bears are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.
Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week.
Bears are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on field turf.
Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.
Lions are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Underdog is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
I think the Lions get their first win of the season in this game. The fear is that the Bears will run up and down the field and that is a concern but I think that concern was addressed during Detroit’s bye week. Remember, the Lions are loaded at WR thanks to Matt Millen and they will rise to the occasion to honor their fallen comrade. Take the Lions and the points and if you have some extra scratch around throw a little down on the Moneyline.
Tennessee @ Baltimore (+3): This game is a little tough to handicap, but I think the Titans cover. Tough giving any points to a Baltimore team at home. They are ridiculous on D. However, Flacco is not ready. The Steelers exposed him last week. The Titans have a better D and they will pressure Flacco just like the Steelers did in the 2nd half of their game last week. Plus, the Titans are just more balanced. It will be a close game-definitely a battle of great D’s, but the Titans pull out the cover. Take the Titans -3.
Colts @ Texans (+3): The Colts are banged-up and playing like it. Although they are coming off the bye this week, I don’t think it matters. Peyton is off and as great as he is, he won’t get on the right track until he gets more playing time. The Texans almost beat the Jags last week. They put-up points on a much better J’ville D. They will do the same this week. I love them getting points. Take the Texans +3.
Patriots @ 49ers (+3): Another home Dog. I like them, too. Pats are off the bye, but they have major problems. Cassel will be good (eventually), but the 49ers have a good D. They can keep this game close. Plus, the Pats have NO run defense. That is music to Frank Gore’s ears. He will have a huge game. Pats will win, but 49ers keep it close. Take the 49ers +3.
As always, good luck.
Runny & Flash
Greetings folks. A decent, but not good, Week Three brought us back a little closer to respectability. However, we know we have a ton of work to do to right the ship. Our NFL season records are as follows: RPJ $yndicate is 3-7, Flash is 2-1 and Runny is 5-7. Still pretty bad, but we ain’t stopping!!!!
Well in keeping with tradition, when we blow we show more picks of hot chicks:
Here is what we like this week:
RPJ $yndicate Picks
Cardinals @ Jets (-1): The Cards looked awful last week against a Skins team that we think is pretty overrated. The Jets were just as bad against a hungry Chargers team on Monday night. What will give? The key to his game is the Cards and their road woes. They are terrible on the road. They have studs on offense and a decent D. There is no reason they should be Dogs in this game (or their last). Also, look at these facts: Jets are 11-1 ATS as home favorites vs. opponents that are .600 or better and 12-2 ATS off of Monday Night games. Nuff said. Take the Jets -1.
Falcons @ Panthers (-6.5): Don’t be fooled by the Falcons. Although they are 2-1, their two wins were against terrible teams (Lions and Chiefs). Their sole loss was a beatdown against the Bucs. The Panthers are more like the Bucs than the Lions and Chiefs. They will win, and when they win at home they are 44-8 ATS. Also, never take rookie QBs on the road. Take the Panthers -6.5.
Chargers @ Raiders (+7.5): This pick pains me because I like Lane Kiffin and I think the Raiders are better than they get credit for being. I just don’t think they have enough this week, despite the fact that the Chargers are traveling off of Monday Night (if you are a reader of our blog, you’ll understand the reference and stat). Facts: Raiders are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 at home against the Chargers. This is a lot of points, but Rivers is the best QB in the league right now. Take the Chargers -7.5.
49ers @ Saints (-4): The Niners are off of a dominating win last week at home. They are young and their D seems to be on the right track. However, I am not sold on J.T. O’Sullivan. Plus, they re going on the road against a Saints team that can do some damage on offense. Facts: Niners are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against the Saints and under Nolan, the Niners are 2-13 SU and 4-11 ATS away against non-division teams. I love the Saints in this. Take the Saints -4.
Bills @ Rams (+8): The Rams are lost and Linehan has lost this team. Players are openly stating that they don’t want to play for him and Trent Green is getting the start this week. Terrible. The Bills are loaded and are playing well. Facts: Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Bills and 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS against inning teams under Linehan. This will be bloody. Take the Bills -8.
Flash Flash Picks
I should be 3-0 and I am not bitter about it or anything. I love the backdoor but I hate backdoor covers.
Only one pick for me this week and that is Redskins (+11) at Dallas. This is too many points and I live the ATS numbers.
Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
Redskins are 21-8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC East.
Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Underdog is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 meetings.
I do not think the Skins will win but I think they are playing better and can keep this within ten points. Take the Skins with the points!
As always, good luck with your picks.
Runny & Flash
Greetings folks. Disappointing start with Thursday’s game. We learned a lot from that game though and we will exploit it later in the season. Runny is 0-1 on the NFL so far, but we like a lot of games on the first Sunday. Again, we will have RPJ picks and our individual takes. Here it goes:
RPJ PICKS (0-0 on the Season)
Cowboys -5.5 @ Browns: The Cowboys covered every weekend in September last year. They are stacked again this year on both sides of the ball. However, the Browns are, too. They made huge improvements on their D in the offseason, and although they looked terrible in the pre-season, they should be a legit contender this season. This is a lot of points to give a team like the Browns at home, which is begging you to take them. Herein lies the Vegas trap. This line has gone up all week. Don’t fall for it. Take the Boys-5.5.
Texans @ Steelers -7: The Steelers are stacked this year and the Texans are banged-up. They are just not as good as the Steelers right now. We like Matt Schaub and Mario Williams. Just not enough. We love the Steelers at home to open their season. Take the Steelers -7.
Bears @ Colts-9.5: We’ve watched the Bears pretty closely this pre-season, more so than most other teams. Take our word for it, they are a MESS on the offensive side of the ball. With the exception of Hester, they have absolutely no playmakers on offense. That does not bode well for them going into Indy. They need to score points to beat them, and the Bears just don’t have the personnel. Plus, the Bears D is severely overrated-maybe the most overrated unit is the NFL. Indy wins this game by at least 17. We don’t care about Manning’s knee. Take the Colts -9.5.
Jets @ Fins+3: Finally the Fins have some stability in the front office and at QB. This will be a great game. So many side stories: Favre’s debut in a uniform other than Green Bays; Pennington gets a revenge chance against the team that gave him a Cleveland Steamer; the Tuna’s 2008 debut. All great stuff. We like the Fins in this one because of the points, and we believe they are the better team. They will surprise everyone with how well they will run the ball this year. We think Ted Ginn finally starts showing why he was a first round pick. For the Jets, we think their D is good, but Favre is way overrated. This will be a close game. We like the points. Take the Fins at home +3.
Jags -3 @ Titans: This is our favorite game of the week. Load-up on this one if you can. We think the Jags will make it to the AFC Championship game this year. They are loaded on both sides of the field. The Titans are terrible. Vince Young has mentally checked-out and he has no playmakers to help him. Jags may shut them out. It will be ugly. We don’t care that the Titans usually play the Jags tough and cover. Take the Jags -3.
RUNNY PICKS (0-1 on the Season)
Lions -3 @ Falcons: The Falcons made some good moves in the offseason drafting Ryan and signing Michael Turner. They are going in the right direction, but it will take another year to get out of Vick’s debacle shadow. The Lions are just much better than they are this year right now. I think this line is low because Vegas is judging the Lions on the end of the year meltdown last year. The Lions have playmakers and will score some points. I don’t think Ryan is ready to keep up. Take the Lions -3.
Chiefs @ Pats -15.5: This is a ton of points and the Pats have been extremely cold when it comes to covering. However, the Chiefs are terrible and will not score points. Their D is good, but they will play mostly nickle against the Pats due to the passing attempts. When they do, 3 of their DB’s will be rookies. Brady will crush this. They may not run the ball more than 10 times in this game. Pats win in a blowout. Take the Pats-15.5.
Flash Flash Picks (0-0)
Nothing today but one game for sure on tap Monday night.
Check back with us for Monday Night’s games. We have picks for both games.
As always, good luck with your picks.
Runny and Flash
NFL Championship Game Picks: Pats Lose in Biggest Upset in NFL History after Tom Brady’s Love Child Rips His Head Off During Pre-game Warmups!
Please join us on our new website. We have the same hot chicks and great picks. Click here….
We knew that headline would get your attention. Our picks might suck but we are not idiots in picking a Pats loss in this one (Read on for our actual pick). We are coming at you with an unusual winning pick selection process for you this time. We simply can not agree on these games and because of this we are not putting any of RPJ Syndicate’s money to work; we are putting our own personal money to work. This is frustrating for us but it is what it is and this happens sometimes and we usually skip the game altogether as you know but because there are only three NFL games left (we are crying literally because of this) we have to put our opinions out there because this is the NFL. Now some of you naysayers out there will call us scam artists because you think we are going to pick both sides and then say we were winners. Well we are not doing this. RPJ Syndicate is a terrible 1-7 in the playoffs so far and these picks will not count for our record because RPJ’s money is not playing these games. Hopefully we can agree on a consensus for the Super Bowl and bet the living hell out of it to recoup some of our losses but time will only tell if that comes true. So to make our crappy picks up with you we are going to show tons of hot chicks in this blog and first up is the beautiful ass of Miss Jessica Alba:
January 20, 2008 – San Diego at New England (-14)
We are going to show you the ATS numbers first for both teams and then we will have our own analysis.
Chargers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Chargers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Chargers are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.
Chargers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Chargers are 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.
Chargers are 46-15-2 ATS in their last 63 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chargers are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Chargers are 27-10-2 ATS in their last 39 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chargers are 43-20-2 ATS in their last 65 games overall.
Chargers are 35-17-3 ATS in their last 55 vs. AFC.
Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Championships games.
Patriots are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 playoff home games.
Patriots are 44-19-2 ATS in their last 65 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Patriots are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games in January.
Patriots are 41-20-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on field turf.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Flash Flash Says: I am going to continue to ride the recent trends and that is a Patriots non-cover. Yes, I know they are 17-0 and the best team in football but they are not cover machines like they were earlier in the season. The weather in Foxboro has limited the Pats ability to stretch the field like they did in the Fall and the Pats are taking a more ball controlled short passing game approach to their offense and this runs the clock out faster and reduces the Pats offensive touches. In addition, every team that plays the Pats knows that they need to limit the Pats touches and employ a ball control offense of their own. The Pats are 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games and the only win was the “guarantee” game against the Steelers. Vegas lines were ridiculous in a lot of these games and that helped the opponents cover but that does not mean the Pats are 14 point favorites against the other elite teams in the AFC. This line is simply too high and Vegas knows the Pats homers will continue to bet on the Pats no matter what. Also, San Diego has not received any credit for their current run and they are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 and riding an 8 game winning streak. The Chargers started slow but you have to remember that they have a completely rehauled coaching staff and two of their early losses were against Green Bay and New England. Expect a ball control game in this one, especially from San Diego. Losing Gates is a big loss for the Chargers. Since the Chargers will play ball control I think the injuries to Rivers and LT will hurt but not as much as people think. Billy Volek will simply be asked to not make mistakes…does this ring any bells? Brad Johnson won a Super Bowl, Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl, Big Ben won and it was not because they had an aggressive offense, it was because they had a great defense and played mistake free offense. Volek can do this. As far as the running game goes, we all know Michael Turner will be a great starter one day and Darren Sprolles showed he has the explosiveness to play a part in any game. Chargers will play a tight, conservative offense and should be able to run on the Pats to keep the chains moving. I do not think the Chargers win but I think they will keep it within ten points in a super cold game. I am definitely interested in the readers opinion on this game because I do not see the reasons why the Pats should cover, even with a banged up Chargers team. That same banged up Chargers team took it to the Colts on the road and can do it again. They Chargers are also the hotter “betting” team. If you have been riding the Pats you have been riding your bankroll down the crapper.I am betting the Chargers and taking the points!!!
Mrs. Flash Flash says: Yes, she is back. She thinks the Pats will not cover the 14 points. She thinks the Pats will not cover because they are unstoppable. Yes, that makes no sense at all and she is half a bottle of wine in. Take it for what it is worth. Mrs. Flash Flash is also coming at you with her top three hottest chicks. First is Miss Sienna Miller:
Chick number 2 is Miss Jessica Biel:
Chick number 3 is Katherine Heigl:
Runny says: Flash has been staring at that pic of Jessica Alba too long and doesn’t have the sense Christ gave a woodchuck. This game should be re-named the “Decimation Bowl” because that is just what the Pats are going to do. Mind you, I DESPISE Tom Brady. I DESPISE Belichek (so much so I threw away all my hoodies). I DESPISE the PATS. I just know a smart thing when I see it. The thing is with this game is that even without the injuries to the Chargers, the Pats still would cover. They destroyed them in Week 2 when they were totally healthy. They will do so again this week.
The Pats were a missed field goal away from covering last week against a Jags team that is much, much better on both sides of the ball than the Chargers. The two weeks off hurt the Pats. They were definitely rusty. Now they will be ready. The Pats are praying that the Chargers blitz Brady and double Moss. Brady will eat that up and hit Wes Welker all game long. The weather will not matter. Look for big games from My Homey Lawrence Moroney, Wes Welker and the Pats secondary. Rivers had the game of his career last week, but that was due to poor execution and poor strategy by the Colts. There is not a receiver on the Chargers that the Pats cannot cover. Chambers will not have a repeat performance.
As much as I hate to say it, the Pats are a team of destiny. They will decimate the Chargers and roll right into the Super Bowl. Take the Pats -14.
January 20, 2008 – Giants at Green Bay (-7)
Coming at you with the ATS numbers first:
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog.
Giants are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff road games.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
Giants are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
Giants are 7-16-3 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Giants are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Packers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Packers are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Packers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games on grass.
Packers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win.
Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Packers are 14-4-2 ATS in their last 20 vs. NFC.
Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
Packers are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
Packers are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Runny Says: The keys to this game are the Giants secondary and the huge home-field advantage. In regards to the Giants secondary, the Packers play sound football and Favre is playing within the system. He is not trying to win the game on every throw. He has confidence in his receivers for the first time in probably 10 years. He has a solid running game backing him and the enitre offense is playing exceptionally well as a team. This does not bode well for an inexperienced and beat-up Giants secondary. Favre and his receivers will do what Romo and his receivers could not do last week; Favre will make the throws and his receivers will catch the ball. The more this happens, the more the running lanes will be free for Ryan Grant. It will snowball into a lot of points for the Pack.
In regards to the Lambeau advantage, the Giants will be playing in an environment they have never seen before. It is going to be FRIGID, with a HIGH of only 4 degrees! You read that right-4 f’ing degrees!! (Is it coincidence that that just so happens to be Favre’s number?!? I don’t think so…). Not only that, they are calling for snow! The Giants will not be prepared for this. They will not be prepared for this crowd.
This would not be a Runny blog post if Keyra did not make an appearance with her fantastic ass…..
Favre and the Pack will get up early and pour it on. Eli will throw a few picks. Look for a big game from the Packers corners. I would not be surprised if one of them take one back for 6. Take the Packers and give the points.
Flash Flash Says:This game really is tough to call in my opinion and that makes it easy. During the NFL season when faced with two awesome opposing forces, you go with the underdog every time. Giants are on a 9 game road winning streak, they are 7-0 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record, Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 January games, Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in their last five home games, Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite, Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 and the list goes on and on. If I were to focus on the only negative ATS numbers the only one that sticks out is that the Packers are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. We know the Giants are the best road team in the NFL this season, with the exception of the Pats and this is a stat to consider. To me these teams are spitting images of each other, they can run, they can run to set up the pass, they have aggressive defenses and they can get after the QB. You can say this about both teams. I like what the Giants coaches have been doing as well. Even though the Giant’s secondary was depleted last week they stuck to their game plan and were content to blitz and man up in the 4th quarter, basically telling their players that they play on Sundays and they have faith in them to make the necessary plays. Great job by Coughlin’s crew. I think the weather will also be a factor in this game and we will all get to see the frozen tundra part II as these teams will play in near zero degree weather. We saw what the Packers offense did in the snow but this will be a lot colder.
It is also important to realize the Manning has bucked up in the last two games by playing not to lose. This is incredibly important in the playoffs. This season is a mish mosh for Manning. Sometimes he seems terrible and completely out of it and other times he leads his team on a quarter ending 75 yard TD scoring drive in 40 seconds. He has learned how to play within himself during these playoffs and I think he has a good mentor (Big Brother Peyton) who learned that putting up 49 TDs and tons of yards is not the key to winning a championship. Playing within yourself and not making mistakes or forcing plays is what keeps the NFL season alive. So will we get he bad decision making drunk Eli:
The drunk Eli will make poor decisions like getting a picture of him taken while he was drunk out of his mind with some little blond hottie or will we get the smart, low-key Eli who marries his college sweetheart and not some whore during a drunken night out. The picture below is Eli’s wife:
I think the Packers win a close game in the 17-14 range. I am betting the Giants with the points!!!
Some of you degenerates out there might know already but the AVN awards went down last weekend out in Vegas. So I want to focus on some porn dirty HOs for my pics today. Hello Breasts!!!!
You like Lily Thai, you will like Jasmine Mai:
and a porn pic shot would not be complete withou Carmen Luvana:
Mrs. Flash Flash says:The Mrs. thinks Favre is the american football dream and is predicting a Packers blow out. Yes the American football dream folks.
Only one more game to go this season…..The Super bowl and we will be ready with our pick. We hope you learned a lot about betting and grew to appreciate us this season. We tell it like it is and we put our own money to work with you. We are not some BS service that touts 65% winners all the time cause anybody with a brain knows that is impossible. This was an bizarre season in NCAA and NFL football and we will examine our models and see if we can find any additional strategic points to manipulate next season.
May your pimp hand be strong and your wallets full!!!
Flash and Runny
Greetings!! The 2nd round of the playoffs kicks off this afternoon. This weekend has some GREAT match-ups. We are lovin’ this!!! Let’s start with the stats: for the regular season, we held a 62-60-1 record and for the playoffs, we are 0-4. We now both those records are bad and not worth posting. It is not stopping us though because we know what lies ahead. This is definitely the weekend of the underdog. ALL of these lines scream for you to take every ‘dog. Vegas is begging you to do it-DON’T!!!! Here is our take on the Divisional Round:
Seahawks @ Packers -7.5: The Seahawks return to Lambeau in the playoffs for the first time since the infamous OT claim “We want the ball and we are gonna score” line. That game did not end well for the Seahawks. Will this one?
The keys to answer that question lie with the defenses for both teams and the incredible home field advantage the Packers have in this game. Can the Seahawks overcome Lambeau and the Packers D? We don’t think so.
No doubt the Packers are clearly the better team. Vegas thinks so, which is really all that matters. They are rested and at home. They have an incredible D line and they are able to generate sacks without the help of their linebackers (Packers had 35 sacks on the season-30.5 came from D linemen). The Seahawks were not as good (45 teams sacks-29 by D linemen). This is a tremendous advantage. This means that the Packers can pressure the QB without bringing extra defenders-defenders that can drop back in pass coverage. This does not bode well for a Seahawks offense that is already banged-up. The Packers secondary will get a couple picks. Aaron Kampman will have a HUGE game.
What about Favre against the Seahawks D? During the regular season, the Seahawks were ranked 15th in the NFL. Last week, they nearly lost to Todd Collins (the game was MUCH closer than the score). Bret Favre is not Todd Collins. He will be able to move the ball. The Packers will be able to run all day. We LOVE the Packers in this game. Go heavy. We think they win by 10. Take the Packer -7.5.
Jags @ Pats -13: This is the game everyone is talking about. We have to admit that back as early as week 6, we thought if the Jags got the Pats in the playoffs they could beat them. They are a physical team with an OUTSTANDING running game. Looking at the games in which the Pats nearly lost, it was due to solid running and very physical defensive play. That is what most of the betting public thinks, too.
Don’t believe the hype!! We love the Jags and hate the Pats, so this pick is hurting us. However, look at the Steelers game last week. The Jags D lost an 18 points lead in the 2nd half. Garrard came back down to earth. We saw a Jags team that could not blitz effectively (we saw them blitz 3 times-every time they did, the Steelers beat them for a TD). You cannot beat the Pats without pressuring Brady. Can’t happen.
The Jags will use Rashean Mathis (and help) to negate Moss. The last team that took that approach and wasn’t able to blitz were the Skins. That game ended 52-7. Also, don’t forget that the Jags also have a rookie (though a good one) playing FS. For all the talk that the Pats don’t have a good D and cannot stop the run, the Pats gave up only 98.1 yards per game on the ground. Not great, but not bad either. They have had 13 days to prepare. They will be ready.
We don’t think this game is close. We think the Pats will get up by 14 early and keep pouring it on. Once they do, the Jags running game will be out the window. We think the Pats win by 20. Take the Pats -13.
Good luck! A post for tomorrow’s games will be out later tonight.
Runny & Flash
Just as the NFL regular season and the college football season rolls to an end, the glorious tournament know as the NFL Playoffs kicks right into gear!!! We love this time of year! Teams sell out in last ditch efforts to squeak into the post season (i.e., the Skins and Titans) while others teams dominate from wire-to-wire and coast in (i.e., the Pats and Boys). Whatever team tickles your fancy, there is plenty of drama and info that needs to go into the handicapping. Luckily for you, that is why we are here! Our season record for the regular season stands at 62-60-1. Very pedestrian and very much like the teams mentioned above who squeaked in. However, like the Skins and Titans, we are in and ready to go. Let the games begin!!!
Here are our take on the Wild Card games:
Skins +3.5 @ Seahawks: The Skins travel to Seattle to kick-off the Wild Card weekend. The Skins have undoubtedly rallied around their fallen teammate and have played some inspired football as of late. A few weeks ago, probably everyone outside of the DC area would have punched you in the liver if you told them the Skins would make the playoffs. They are playing lights out right now. How about Todd Collins?!?!?! If you would have told the same person that he would be the QB leading the charge, I’m sure you would have earned yourself and punch in the neck, too. All punches aside, the Skins are a force to be reckoned with right now.
The Skins have covered and won outright their last 4 games. Two of those games were on the road against their hated NFC East rival NY Giants and a super hot (at the time) Vikings team. Looking past those games, the Skins lost quite a few (lost their previous 5 out 0f 6). Included in those games was the Decimation Bowl where the Pats hung 52 on them. That Pats game aside, the Skins average margin of loss in those games was only 5 points. Not too shabby.
The Seahawks have stumbled as of late. They lost a shootout against a terrible Falcons team in Week 17, granted the Seahawks had nothing to win or lose in that game. However, they have a great passing game and have a HUGE homefield advantage. It is an advantage that cannot be overlooked.
Right now, our analysis calls this a toss-up. Each team has advantages. Here are some ATS numbers for you:
Both teams have impressive ATS numbers. Very impressive. So, what gives?
The key is to first ask THE question. If you read our stuff, you will know what we are talking about. Vegas set this line at 3.5. it opened at -5, but has settled down to -3.5. The line dropped due to the heavy action on the Skins money line. Typically, home field advantage is worth about 3 points. So, for a line at -5 it typically means that Vegas thinks Seattle is only a 2 point better team if this was on a neutral field. For these two teams, we agree. We don’t think there are any traps in this game.
To get our winner, we look to the match-ups. Statistically, the teams are pretty close in nearly every category. The key match-up will be the Hawks passing attack against the Skins secondary. No doubt the Skins will shut down the Hawks run. They will have to pass to win. This means it will come down to Hasslebeck against Landry, Springs, Smoot and Dougty. We think the Skins are up to the challenge. Without the running game, the Skins secondary will eat the Hawks alive.
We also think the Skins are playing out of their minds right now and are not happy with just making the playoffs. They are hungry and they are playing for #21. Plus, they played in the NFC East which is a MUCH tougher division than the NFC West. Not even close. So, even-though the stats are similar, they went about completely different ways of getting them. The Skins played the two other playoff teams twice (Boys and Giants) as well as the Eagles. The Hawks played the 49ers twice. Terrible.
We think the Skins cover and win outright. We love the points. Take the Skins +3.5.
Jags -2.5 @ Steelers: The Jags have been amazing!! It is about time Fred Taylor got some credit!!! They roll into the ‘Burgh for the 2nd time in a month to face the Steelers. In their last meeting, the Jags pulled off the upset, winning 29-22. No doubt the Steelers are awesome at home, however, the Jags are no fluke. Neither was their win.
Here are some ATS numbers for you:
JAC are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Home team is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 meetings.
Pretty good stats for the Steelers. However, we just think the Jags roll again. The Steelers are banged-up, but the Jags just punish teams. We also think the Jags QB will play better and is less apt to make mistakes. Turnovers will be key in this game and we think the Jags will win this battle. Take the Jags -2.5.
Runny & Flash
2008 is almost upon us, but we still have a lot of work to do in 2007. Congrats to the Patriots on their perfect season, but F them for not covering for us-haha! The Pats loss ATS dropped our season record to 61-54-1. We know that sucks and we apologize. No time is better to get off the schneid than right now. Here is what we like on Sunday (sorry for the lack of explanations):
Lions +3.5 @ Packers: Packers are set for the playoffs. The Lions ar pobably playing for Mike Martz’s jo. Take the points. Lions +3.5.
Vikings -3 @ Broncos: Broncos are terrible and the Vikings are playing for the palyoffs. Take the Vikings -3.
49ers +11.5 @ Browns: Browns are playing for the playoffs and the 49ers are terrible. Exact same situation as the Vik-Broncos, but this is too many points. We like what we’ve seen from the 49ers these past few weeks. Take the points. 49ers +11.5.
Saints +1 @ Bears: Saints need this win to make the playoffs. The Bears are starting Kyle Orton. ‘Nuff said. We love the points. Saints +1.
Jags +7 @ Texans: Jags are set for the playoffs so they won’t be playing their starters. That said, we stll think their D and their 2nd string is still better than the Texans. Jags +7.
Cowboys +9 @ Skins: No starters for the Boys this week and if the Skins win, they are in the playoffs. However, Brad Johnson is a real decent back-up. He can still beat the Skins. This is too many points. Take the Boys +9.
Bengals -2.5 @ Fins: Fins are just bad. Take the Bungles -2.5.
Runny & Flash
Another Sunday is upon us and the NFL regular season is winding down. Teams are jockying for playoff spots, 1st week byes and draft positions. Very exciting stuff. Of course the Bungles sucked it on Saturday night to bring our season record to 54-41-1. We are disappointed, but still happy with how our season is going. We know we do our best work on Sundays. With that said, this is what e like Sunday:
Jags +3 @ Steelers: No guarantees by the Steelers this week as they host the Jags. Big playoff implications in this on. The Jags are playing very sound football right now while the Steelers have been two different teams-brilliant at home and terrible on the road. They are at home this week and they are getting players back from the medical ward. It won’t matter in this one. The jags are banged-up, but they know how to overcome. They will keep it close if not win outright. Take the Jags +3.
Colts @ Raiders +10.5: The Colts roll into Oaktown to face a young Raiders team. The Colts have looked like a team that is primed for the playoffs-despite the injuries. They are banged-up again for this one. The Raiders were terrible in Green Bay last week. All the ATS numbers point to the Colts covering easy. And, most of the money in Vegas is on the Colts (94% as of the time of this post). That is why we like the Raiders at home. Kiffin grew up watching Dungy. He will have his boys ready. Take the Raiders +10.5.
Ravens -3.5 @ Dolphins: Could there be a worse team than the Fins?!?! Just when you think it could not get any worse, they lose 38-17 to the Bills. There is no relief in sight. The only things they have going for them in this one is that they are at home and the Ravens have a lot of key injuries. We don;t think it will matter in this one. Take the Ravens -3.5.
Titans -4 @ Chiefs: The Chiefs are a mess. They could be looking at using their 4th string RB this week. That is not good against a solid Tennessee D. The Chiefs just are not a good team right now. They are not well coached, and they are injured. Despite the huge home-field advantage, this all adds up to a Titans cover. Take the Titans -4.
Falcons +12.5 @ Buccaneers:Don’t get us wrong-the Falcons are terrible. Petrino walking out on them was just another sign that things are not getting any better in Hotlanta anytime soon. That said, 12.5 is too many points. They will rally around each other after Petrino quit on them and keep this game with 12.5. Take the Falcons +12.5.
Eagles +10 @ Cowboys: The Cowboys return home after a sucker win against the Lions. They had no business winning that one and that game revealed a lot about this team-they are extremely soft on D and very undisciplined on O. They have a lot of talent on both sides of the field, but need a lot of improvement if they want to get through the playoffs. The Linos showed that the Cowboys can be physically dominated with hard hits. The Eagles definitely know how to do that. They will cover if not win outright. Also, keep in mind that the last time the Cowboys had a lucky win like last week was also on the road. It was in Buffalo on Monday night. What happened the following week? They got spanked at home by the Patriots. This will be the Eagles Super Bowl. Nothing will please them more than to beat the Cowboys in Big D. Take the Eagles +10.
Seahawks -7 @ Panters: The Seahawks are hot right now. They have been decimating teams at home and on the road. They look to continue that play against a struggling Panthers team this week. The injury bug has hit the Panthers particularily hard this year. That does no bode well for them against a hot ‘Hawks team. We think the Seahawks will have too much for them this week. Take the Seahawks -7.
Jets @ Patriots -21: Another lopsided spread for the Pats. This line actually opened at 24.5 and has dropped. We think it is due to the weather and the fact that a huge majority of the bets in Vegas are on the Jets. We think that is comical. Even with the weather, the Pats are gonna steamroll this Jets team. They have no threats at all. Kellen Clemens has not seen this team in action and the Jets D will not be able to stop the Pats. Belichek despises Mangini and if he was willing to run up the score on Joe Gibbs, what do you think he will do in this one?!?! We don’t think the Jets will even score. Take the Pats -21.
Redskins @ Giants -5: The Skins are injured and are limping into their match-up with the Giants. Losing Jason Campbell is a HUGE loss. Todd Collins is not answer. The Giants will roll at home. Take the Giants -5.
9 picks for Sunday! Good luck with your picks!
Runny & Flash
Another Thursday night winner for us in the Skins-Bears brings our record to 45-36-1. We are getting where we need to be. Week 14 is the week of the road favorite. Generally, in picking NFL games it is usually bad to go with road favorites. However, this week we like a few. Here is what we like for Sunday’s action:
Vikings -8.5 @ 49ers: This is a lot of points for the Vikings to give on the road. However, they have Adrian Peterson and they are on the road to face a terrible 49ers team. With all the credit that Adrian Peterson gets (all of it is deserved-if this kid does not win the ROY and MVP this year it will be highway robbery), the Vikings D should get some. They are flying under the radar with their play. They will strut their stuff this weekend against the 49ers. Look for heavy doses of Adrian Peterson and a lot of attacks on D. It will be a close cover, but we like the Vikings. Take the Vikings -8.5.
Cowboys -11 @Lions; OVER/UNDER 50.5: Another heavy road favorite. The Cowboys head north to the Motor City to face a struggling Lions team. Historically, the Lions have done well against the Cowboys. Will the Lions get their 10 wins? Unlikely, but if they do, they need to win this game. They won’t. The Cowboys have had 10 days to prepare for a game that is flying under the public’s radar, but not the radar of the Boys’ D. The Lions SPANKED them last year in Big D. The Boys are looking for payback. T-New and Bradie James have already come out with threats. They are focused and looking for blood. They will cover. Take the Cowboys -11. That said, the Boys D is vulnerable. Especially to the pass. With Roy Williams out for the Lions, it will limit their air attack. It won’t shut it down. The Lions will be able to score. Take the OVER 50.5.
Browns -3.5 @ Jets: Another road favorite. The Browns roll into NY/NJ to face a Jets team fresh off a beatdown of Miami. That beatdown was a fluke. The Jets are not a good team right now and they are hurt. The Browns win easy and cover. Take the Browns -3.5.
Panthers @ Jags -10.5: This is a lot of points. The Panthers threw up some points last week against the 49ers. However, the 49ers are bad. The Jags are not. They played the Colts close and don’t have as much injuries as the Panthers. We like the Jags to roll. Take the Jags -10.5.
Rams @ Bengals -9.5: Brock Berlin gets the starting nod for the Rams this week. That’s right…Brock Berlin. We remember him from his U days. He was terrible then. We are giving him no credit this weekend. Despite the Rams having a solid D, and the Bungles being the softest team in the league, we think Cinncy rolls at home. Take the Bungles -9.5.
Chargers -1 @ Titans: Another road favorite. The Chargers have been TERRIBLE ATS in their past 8 road games. The Titans are a completely different team with Haynesworth back. That said, he is still a little banged-up. He will play, but will his hammy hold-up. We don’t think he will be effective enough to stop LT. The Chargers are playing better and can cover. Take the Chargers -1.
Steelers @ Patriots -10.5: Probably the game of the week. Nearly EVERYONE thinks the Steelers will be the team to upset the Pats. Every analyst waxes on and on about how good the Steelers will run the ball and how great their D is. However, they are a completely different road team. They lost to the Jets for goodness sakes. The teams they did beat do not have the Pats arsenal, and they have lost to some terrible teams. The Pats haven’t lost to anyone. Also, pay attention to this spread. Despite all the hype and all the money in Vegas going to the Steelers this week, the Steelers are still a double digit dog. Vegas knows. Take the Pats -10.5.
There you go. Good luck with your picks.
Runny & Flash
Greetings. Great week last week. Rocked a 6-2 record for week 10 to bring our season record to 30-17-2. That is 61%. We’ll take that all season long. Let’s keep it rollin’. Here is who we like in Week 11:
Browns -2.5 @ Ravens: We have an Uncle, Moe, who is a die hard Browns fan. Seriously. If you try to argue who the greatest NFL footballer is and say anyone besides Jim Bown, he’ll try to fight you. Even during the holidays. When Art Modell moved the Browns to Baltimore, it broke his heart. He stopped watching footbal until the Brownies were back. To this day, if you mention Art Modell within his earshot he goes nuts. In honor of our Uncle Moe, we will call this game the Uncle Moe Bowl and we LOVE the Brownies. Bet them heavy. It is a Eva Mendes bet (bet 5 Times your typical bet) for us. The money seems to be going towards the Ravens, which scares us. However, the Browns spanked them earlier this year and they are playing better now. The Ravens are even worse. Also, take into account that the Browns are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with losing records and the Ravens are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 overall. We think the Browns cover. Take the Browns -2.5.
Chargers @ Jags -3: This line screams to take the Chargers, which is exactly what the betting public is doing. Afterall, the Chargers are fresh off a beatdown of the Colts last Sunday. However, that win was deceptive-most of the scoring was from special teams. For the 2nd week in a row, the Chargers offense was offensive. They come into J’Ville to play a stacked J’Ville D and the Jags are getting David Garrard back. The Jags cover. Take the Jags -3.
Raiders +4.5 @ Vikings: The Vikings are not the same without Adrian Peterson (to state the obvious). The Raiders come in with an underrated D and Daunte Culpepper returning to his old stomping ground. Brad Childress is not a good coach. Lane Kifin is. The Vikings QB problem will hurt them in this one. We think the Raiders keep it close and win outright (consider the money line @ +180). Take the Raiders +4.5.
Redskins @ Cowboys -11: The Skins are decimated by injuires on their D. Without Sean Taylor, Romo and TO will go nuts. The Boys roll in this one. Take the Cowboys -11.
Buccaneers -3 @ Falcons: This game is about the starting QBs. Garcia is better than any of the clowns the Falcons bring to the table. Garcia will play enough to cover. Take the Buccaneers -3.
Titans @ Broncos (O/U 38): A battle of teams that have young QBs. They both make a lot of mistakes. The defenses will capitalize on them and keep the score low. Take the Under 38.
Patriots @ Bills +16: We like this game for 4 reasons: 1). The Pats did not cover their last time on the road, 2). The weather is forecasted to be bad, 3). Most of the money in Vegas is on the Pats and 4). The Bills have nothing to lose. To us, that adds up to a Bills team that will shock the Pats and cover the points. Take the Bills +16.
Rams -3 @ 49ers: The 49ers are just plain bad. Terrible. Alex Smith is whining about his shoulder. He is bad. The Rams are not good either, but they won last week and have momentum. They will keep it going. Take the Rams -3.
There’s our picks for week 11. 8 games!!! Good luck.
Runny & Flash
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