RPJ Betting Syndicate

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9/20/2008 – Week 4 Free NCAA Football Picks – Improving but Ready for Another Breakthrough!!!

First things first. Our performance has been less than stellar….RPJ is now 9-11-1. Flash is 3-1 and Runny is 6-6. We clearly want to make money and we are not pleased and will not make any excuses like a terrible Kansas line for a push and two half point losses already on the season…..but who is checking. We also changed our blog from RPJ Syndicate to RPJ $yndicate to invoke the gods of the almighty dollar.

Thanks for all of the advice and for your support or knocks. Our models take into account everything you can think of under the sun and then some so we feel confident we will turn this around in no time.

Our rules…We bet every game we put on here and at the lines we post them. Lately we know we have shared the pain but some serious cash is right around the corner. We are going to throw out a lot of games this week, including our first great debate game. RPJ $yndicate picks are picks that pass 100% of our combined models, Runny picks are picks that pass his models but do not pass Flash’s models and Flash’s picks are picks that pass Flash’s models but do not pass Runny’s models. Simple enough. On with the picks….after the obligatory arse shots. We had a request for more Keyra videos and who are we to deny you of that pleasure. Enjoy Mr. SEC lawyer friend….

And one nice pic of Keyra can not hurt either….

And just to continue with the theme here….Miss Angelina Jolie. We wish the cameraman focused a little more to the left and it was raining outside but hey we do not live in a perfect world.

Last but not least…Anybody have a problem with Playboy? We do not think so.

Yes we will still make picks this week and here we go….

RPJ $yndicate Picks

Temple at Penn State (-28.5)
– Penn State helped us out last week for one of our wins. Not sure it was more about Penn State or more about how terrible Syracuse was but a win is a win and for us right now that is all that matters. Penn State is going for its 26th straight win against The Owls. The Nittany Lions (3-0) are among the nation’s top 25 in both passing (273.0 ypg) and rushing (263.0 ypg), resulting in the country’s eighth-ranked total offense and fourth-highest scoring team. Temple is coming off two crushing defeats, one in OT to UCONN and the other on a hail mary pass to Buffalo as time expired. Here are the ATS numbers:

Temple

Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Owls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Owls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Owls are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Owls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big Ten.

Penn State

NittanyLions are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. MAC.
Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
NittanyLions are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Head-to-Head

Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Temple has some impressive ATS numbers, as does Penn State, but what it really comes down to is Temple can not compete in Penn State or against Penn State. No way, no how. The last two years or so when Temple was putting up these impressive ATS numbers they were also losing to Penn State at home 31-0 in 2007 and in Happy Valley 47-0 in 2006. Temple will not cover, NO WAY, NO HOW!!! Take Penn State to dominate this game and win by 30 plus points.

LSU at Auburn (+2.5)
– This is definitely the game of the week and ESPN Game Day canceled their Arizona State show to move to Auburn after The Sun Devil’s choke job last week. Auburn is coming off a ridiculous game that they won 3-2. Words can not describe how awful and terrible the offenses were. If Auburn can not score against Mississippi State then how the hell are they going to score against LSU. LSU has had hurricane on the mind and really has needed to get games in to break in their QBs and offense. Auburn has a top rated defense as well so if LSU is not ready to play on offense this score could be lower than the 3-2 we saw last week. The ATS numbers:

LSU

Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games in September.

Auburn

Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games on grass.
Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 home games.
Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games in September.
Under is 8-2 in Tigers last 10 conference games.
Under is 6-2 in Tigers last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 6-2 in Tigers last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 15-6 in Tigers last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Head-to-Head

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Auburn.
Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.

Yep. you guessed it. We are mixing it up this week and throwing in our pick as an over/under pick. Right now the O/U line is at 37.5 and we love that number. These offenses are not ready to play but the defenses are. Remember two years ago…LSU at Auburn….final score was 7-3 in favor of Auburn. Take the under (37.5) in this game.

Wake Forest at Florida State (-5)
– This game is pretty simple to see for us. Wake Forest has actually tested itself this season with a road win at Baylor and a home win versus Ole Miss. Baylor is impressive in the fact that Wake traveled and won in the state of Texas for the first time ever and Ole Miss is impressive simply because it is an SEC school. We know absolutely nothing about Florida State because they chose to beat up on 1-AA schools. And yes we refuse to call them anything but 1-AA schools. The ATS numbers:

Wake Forest

Demon Deacons are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Demon Deacons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Demon Deacons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Demon Deacons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Demon Deacons are 13-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Demon Deacons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.

Florida State

Seminoles are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Seminoles are 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Seminoles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Seminoles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Head-to-Head

Demon Deacons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

We think this game favors Wake. They are tougher and more tested. Wake also has a two game winning streak going against the Seminoles and that shows us that Wake knows how to win in Tallahassee. We think this game will be close and physical and do expect Wake to win in the end. The fact that we get 5 points makes it all the better. Take Wake and the points.

Notre Dame at Michigan State (-9) – Our favorite battering ram. Of course Notre Dame kicked us in the arse last week. Damn early turnovers killed Michigan. Well Charlie Weis put all his eggs in the Michigan basket. He talked about beating them all off season and observers say he had more emotion and was more prepared for last week’s Michigan game than any game he has ever coached. You know what that means….let down city. Charlie also got knocked on his fat ass and hurt his knee. Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!! Look at the fat walrus fall….

Michigan State is not a team you can overlook. They are physical, run well and have a great coach. We know Notre Dame shaves their Kuntz and if you do not believe us then click this sentence. The ATS numbers:

Notre Dame

Fighting Irish are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
Fighting Irish are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Fighting Irish are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Michigan State

Spartans are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Spartans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. INDEP.

Head-to-Head

Fighting Irish are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

We think this is a heavily overrated Irish team. Barely beating SDSU and stomping a depleted, young Michigan team in the infancy of a completely new offense does not impress us at all. MSU is the much better team. They roll at home. Take MSU -9.

Runny Versus Flash – The Great Debate Game

Georgia (-7) at Arizona State
– Well it was bound to happen and it only took until Week 4 but Runny and Flash are split on this game. We are not going to bet this game because we are split on what is going to happen. However, we know our readers want to know what is going to happen in this game because it is the game of the week. This game is important on many levels and especially for the Pac-10 versus SEC feud. The Pac-10 laid an egg last week, especially against Mountain West foes and the Mt. West is far removed from SEC competition. Tennessee went to UCLA and got pummeled by a bad UCLA team that went to BYU and lost 59-0. Yup 59-0. Georgia was the pre-season #1 and many predicted them to be national champion. If Georgia is to live up to the hype, they have to go on the road to Arizona State and win convincingly. Amazing tidbit….this is the first time Georgia has travelled west of the Mississippi River since……….1960. 1960!!!!!! Are you freakin kidding us?!?! On top of that, this is the furthest The Dawgs have traveled in the regular season since…..1967. What the F? The SEC is by far the worst traveling conference in all of college football. It can not even be argued. Here are the ATS numbers before we get into our debate:

Georgia

Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bulldogs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Bulldogs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Bulldogs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
Bulldogs are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
Bulldogs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

Arizona State

Sun Devils are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games in September.
Sun Devils are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Sun Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Sun Devils are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Sun Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.

Flash Flash saysthat Georgia has a lot to prove and is not coming off of a look ahead game even though they did not play well against South Carolina. Arizona State played the look ahead game and flat out lost and that will be tough to stomach. Arizona State has one big flaw and that is they struggle against physical teams. USC destroyed them last year and literally bloodied Rudy Carpenter. We remember the blood.

Texas beat Arizona State bad and even Arizona, which is not known for much but is well coached on defense almost beat them before losing 20-17. Last week to UNLV, Arizona State ran for 3.6 yards per carry, lost the turnover battle, lost the time of possession battle, lost the 3rd down conversion and 4th down conversion battle and blew a ten point 4th quarter lead. What does that translate into?…..Not being tough enough. I think the ATS numbers speak for themselves also. You will have to wait and see what Runny thinks but I think every sign but one points to Georgia. Georgia does not know how to travel and the SEC does not travel well. That scares the hell out of me. However, in this case, ASU fields a bunch of pussies and Georgia should roll through them in a big statement game. Georgia wins and covers!!!! Side bar….When asked about dropping out of the top 25, Dennis Erickson responded “I don’t know if we should have been in there to start with.” Way to inspire confidence in your team coach.

Runny SaysGeorgia is the most overrated team in the Top 25. Yeap – THE most overrated. I don’t buy the hype at all. No doubt they have studs on both sides of the ball. However, their O-Line is ATROCIOUS. No way they can win the SEC with that line. No way. And, there is no way they travel 1,000 miles to Zona and dominate a stout D. As we noted above, this is the first time they have traveled West of the Mississippi since 1960 and the furthest they traveled since 1967. This cannot be overstated. As also noted, SEC teams do not travel out of state very well. This also cannot be overstated. Why is that?

The reason, I feel, is that SEC schools do not travel well because they purposely don’t do it. They are not used to it, so when a big game comes a good distance from home, they fold. Pretty much every SEC team loads up on cupcake schools at home like SouthEastCentralWestCrenshaw Louisiana State and think that establishes college football supremacy. I don’t buy it, and neither will ASU. Despite what they are saying in Athens, Geogia is looking past this game. They are smack dab in the middle of a tough conference schedule. Take that and the fact that they have to travel 1,000 miles means Georgia is in trouble.

(SIDE NOTE: As you can imagine, in our travels to various sporting events around this great country of ours we often run into complete degenerates that often have the same interests we do: gambling and handicapping. Some of our readers know our friend, Maury the Wig, who graces our presence during NCAA hoops season. Well, at the USC-OSU game last weekend, we had the pleasure of meeting a fellow by the name of Magic Rat. Imagine being at the biggest regular season college game of the past 10 years and meeting a guy in SoCal wearing cut-off jean shorts, drinking piss warm PBR’s and bitching about teams that were not OSU or USC. Rat was by himself, bitching about the SEC and we found him to be a pure genius. He is a hater and just seemed bash the popular team at the moment. Anyway, we immediately extended the invite to contribute to our blog. He accepted, but we haven’t heard from him since. Hopefully he will grace us with his presence. Stay tuned…we have no idea if he will remember us).

Granted, ASU sucked it something awful last week against UNLV. However, I think it was a look past game. They knew who was coming this week and they got ahead of themselves. Coach Erickson is a good coach. He knows how to motivate. He will turn it around. They may not win, but they can cover 7 points. I’m riding Rudy Carpenter and the Sun Devils and taking the 7 points.

Flash Flash Picks (3-1 on the season) and the rule of 28

Seems like all my picks have 28 point spreads. Here goes:

Wyoming at BYU (-28) – BYU is coming of a total decimation of UCLA in very impressive fashion and continuing with the nation’s longest winning streak. BYU has the toughness and wants to make it into the BCS title picture. Some points to think about…Last week, the Cougars rolled up 521 total yards even though no individual player had more than 110 yards from scrimmage. The Cougars forced four turnovers and allowed nine rushing yards on 16 carries in handing UCLA its first shutout loss since 2001. Do not doubt this team for a second. 28 points does not scare me. BYU wins and covers convincingly!!!

Rice at Texas (-28) – Good things typically happen for Texas when it meets Rice. The Longhorns, who have won nine straight games over the Owls, are 37-1 against them since 1966 to improve to 68-21-1 in the all-time series, which dates to 1914. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and Rice Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Texas wins and covers easily!!!

Runny Pelvis (6-6 on the season)

VaTech at UNC (-3) – UNC shocked me last week with their dominating win over Rutgers in Jersey. Pretty damn impressive. Butch Davis has completely turned that program around. He has done an excellent job of recruiting and it is starting to show. Props to him and that team. However, the Hokies have a great coach, too, and a very established program. Frank Beamer knows how to run a team. Despite the fact that they have looked bad this year and lost their opener to East Carolina, I think they cover in this one. I love the points. Some facts: Tech is 10-1 ATS on the road against opponents they beat the year before, Tech is 12-2 in their lined road openers and UNC is 2-8 as Favorites of 6 points or less. VaTech covers and wins outright.

Miss St. at GaTech (-7.5) – Miss St scrapped last week against Auburn. Impressive? Not to me. Their schedule has been a joke: the lost to LaTech and beat SE LA. That’s right-SE LA!!!! Tech, on the other hand played J’Ville St, BC and VaTech. Much more impressive to me. Paul Johnson is a great coach and within two years, he will have GaTech competing for a BCS title. They aren’t there yet, but I think they are the much better team here. Also, Miss St is 1-6 ATS in their games immediately following Auburn. That says to me that they blow their loads against Auburn. Bad timing this week. I’m taking GaTech -7.5.

Iowa at Pitt (+1) – This line says a lot about how Pitt’s season is going. With all the pre-season hype and the studs they have on this team, no way Pitt should be an underdog in this game. However, after an opening loss to Bowling Green and not destroying Buffalo, Pitt finds themselves sucking it. They haven’t covered all year, and they won’t this week. Iowa has a solid D (allowing a Nation’s best only 2.7 points per game) and they beat their bitter rival last week. We like them here, too. Facts: Pitt is 1-6 ATS at home against a team .600 or better under Dave Wannstadt. Enough said for me. Take Iowa -1.

Central Michigan at Purdue (O/U: 64.5) – You readers know that we love us some Dan LaFevour. He is the man!! He knows how to run wild and throw-up some points. However, so does Curtis Painter and Purdue. I love he MAC and I researched this game more than any other this week. Honestly, I cannot figure out who will cover (at posting time, Purdue is giving 3). So, I’m not picking a team. I’m taking the game. Both teams can throw-up massive amounts of point. I love the over in this. Take the OVER 64.5.

Troy at Ohio State (-20.5) – OSU is fresh off the drubbing they received at the hands of SC last weekend. They were completely over matched and dejected by halftime. Now they come home with their tails between their legs and looking to salvage their program and self-respect. Beanie Wells is out, and there has been no decision on who will start at QB. If Tressel is smart, he will go with Pryor for the rest of the season. We watched him in person last week and think he is every bit as good as advertised. He needs to play. However, I think Tressel is still going to play him in spots. I think this is a mistake. This strategy barely beat Ohio. Troy is a MUCH better team than that. They play good D and they smell blood. Facts: Troy is 9-2 in their last 11 road games and OSU is 0-5 at home against non-conference opponents who are coming of a straight-up win. I think OSU wins, but Troy can keep it within 20.5.

Bama at Ark (+8.5) – HUGE SEC battle!! I can’t wait to watch this game. Both coaches left the NFL under high scrutiny. Both have excellent NCAA coaching histories. Bama is stacked and had, in my opinion, the best recruiting class in the country. Julio Jones is a future NFL star and an immediate difference make. Ark does not have that type of player, but they can still play. Both teams will be geeked for this game.  What will give? I say Ark covers. Facts: The Dog in this series is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 match-ups, and Ark is 7-1 as underdogs off a non-conference game vs. an opponent off double digit straight-up win. Due to hurricane Ike, Ark is rested and this is the game they have had circled all year. I think they get a huge emotional edge at home. I’m taking the points and riding Ark +8.5.

Ball State at Indiana (-3) – I will be heading to this game and tailgating like a madman. This is a HUGE rivalry for the great state of Indiana. Both teams will be fired-up. I can’t wait!! Should be shootout, but I think Ball State covers. Facts: IU is 6-1-1 against the MAC and 6-1 at home against an opponent off of back-to-back straight-up ATS wins. This favors IU immensely and give that they are in the Big 10, they should blow Ball State out. However, they have had some turmoil this season (Middleton suspension) and they have not looked that great. Balls State is hot, and I can guarantee you that have had this game circled on their calendars since they were pummeled by Rutgers in last year’s final game. Nate Davis is a stud who leaves it all on the field every game. I’m taking Ball State +3.

Florida at TENN (+7.5) – THE #2 game of the week. Another HUGE SEC match-up. These teams hate each other and it is typically a good game. The ATS numbers scream take Tenn: Tenn is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 match-ups and Fla is 2-6 in their last 8 September games. However, the key to me to this game is that Florida is coming off the bye. This is huge. They have had two weeks to prepare for this game. They will be ready. Remember, this is the same Tenn team that lost to a terrible UCLA that was crushed by BYU last week. Tenn is overrated. This spread is high because Vegas knows Tenn is bad. With the ATS numbers, the spread should not be this high. I’m taking Fla -7.5.

Enjoy the picks and feel free to make comments, tell us we suck and cost you your house or tell us what hot chicks you want to see of feel free to send us an email at rpjsyndicate@gmail.com.

Flash and Runny

P.S no idea why this darn blog bolded everything but this is not a beauty contest. Also, we just saw Jeff Tedford and he was eating a turd sandwich.

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September 19, 2008 Posted by | ACC, Alabama Tide, Angelina Jolie, Arizona State, Arkansas Razorbacks, Ass, Auburn Tigers, Ball State Cardinals, BCS, Beanie Wells, Betting, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Bobby Petrino, Boilermakers, Bruins, Buckeyes, BYU Cougars, Central Michigan, Charlie Weis, Chippewas, Crimson Tide, Dan LaFevour, Demon Deacons, Dennis Erickson, East Carolina, ESPN, Fighting Irish, Florida Gators, Florida State Seminoles, Football, Frank Beamer, Free NCAA picks, Gambling, Georgia Bulldogs, Georgia Tech, Indiana Hoosiers, Iowa Hawkeyes, Irish, Jim Tressel, Jimmy Claussen, Keyra Augustina, Knowshon Moreno, Les Miles, LSU Tigers, MAC, Mark Richt, Matt Stafford, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Mountaineers, NC, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Nick Saban, Nittany Lions, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Owls, Pac-10, Panthers, Penn State, Pittsburgh Panthers, Purdue, Rey Maualuga, Rice Owls, Rudy Carpenter, SEC, Spartans, Sports, Tar Heels, Temple Owls, Tennessee, Texas Longhorns, Thong, Tim Tebow, Troy Trojans, UCLA, UNLV, Urban Meyer, USC Trojans, VaTech, Virginia Tech, Virginia Tech Hokies, Volunteers, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Winning Picks, Wyoming, Yellow Jackets | 3 Comments

NCAA Football Week 12 Picks: CHICKS, CHICKS, CHICKS and picks; if you care about picks!

Some announcements:

– All picks this week are for Saturday’s games
– We are 43-40 on the season, 3-3 Brinks truck bets (keep reading cause the Brinks Truck bet is back and has been renamed) and up 3 units.
– There are two Brinks truck opportunities this week. The first is a typical Brinks truck bet and then we are renaming the Brinks truck bet going forward. Read on to find the games.
– We want to thank all of our readers because we hit a new record today for shortest amount of time to 1,000 blog reads and the count keeps climbing….meaning after 15 days, over 1,100 readers have visited our blog. And over the last week we are averaging almost 100 hits a day. Thank you for reading us and as always please feel free to leave comments, ask us questions on this blog or if you are shy send us a private email to rpjsyndicate@gmail.com.
– It is becoming clearly obvious what our readers want….HOT CHICKS AND PICKS. That blog blew up so Chicks and Picks is back for a repeat effort. Enjoy!

And now on with the picks:

Wisconsin @ Minnesota (+14) = The St. Pauli Girl game. The Northern Midwesterners up in Wisconsin and Minnesota love their beer, cheese, meat products and shapely women. What better way to kick off the week than by showcasing one of our favorites…. The St. Pauli Girl!!!

pauli-girl.jpg

Wisconsin looked strong against Michigan last week. They definitely caught them in a look ahead game but that is not their problem and they took care of business. Minnesota is flat out bad and not really competitive in the Big Ten. Add that to the fact that this is a clean sweep game and it makes our lives a lot easier. Wisconsin will have a field day running on the Gophers. Minnesota gives up 221 yards agame on the ground and is minus 13 in the turnover ration. We were actually surprised to see this line under 20 points. Some against the spread (ATS) numbers for you:

Wisconsin
Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
Badgers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Badgers are 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Badgers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on turf.
Badgers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite.
Badgers are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a ATS win.

Minnesota
Golden Gophers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Golden Gophers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Golden Gophers are 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Golden Gophers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on turf.
Golden Gophers are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Golden Gophers are 1-5-3 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog.
Golden Gophers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Also, when you throw in the fact that the Badgers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Minnesota, you can see where we are going with this. Wisconsin wins BIG. Take Wisconsin to win and cover!!!

Brinks Truck Bet Alert – Ohio State @ Michigan (+4) = The Yasmine Bleeth game. Yasmine was on the top of her game, a Baywatch Babe, attending red carpet events and then whammy…..she was arrested for cocaine possession in one of the most hideous transformations ever. If you do not believe us check out the before and after pictures below.

The Before

bleeth-hot.jpg

The After:

bleeth.jpg

So how does this apply to football games..it is pretty easy…a team that was living the high life is now a bust over night. Ohio State was living the high life last week, ranked number 1 in the BCS standings, enjoying a Big Ten 20 game win streak that spanned two years, playing an unranked Illinois team at home and then it was stomach punch time. A loss dropped Ohio St from 1 to 7 and ended their national title hopes. This whole game is actually a mess. Michigan is facing a ton of distractions with injuries to Henne and Hart and there are numerous rumors flying around that Lloyd Carr will step down. We already know Tressel is a much better coach than Carr and he knows the Rose Bowl is on the line and will come ready to play and he is not facing any distractions. We love this game as our return the Brinks Truck action this week. Michigan is banged up, we think the game would have been competiive with a healthy Hart and Henne but these guys are simply not healthy and can not finish games, especially against a physical Ohio State defense. Here are the ATS numbers for you:

Ohio State
Buckeyes are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Buckeyes are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.
Buckeyes are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 conference games.
Buckeyes are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games overall.
Buckeyes are 15-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Michigan
Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Tressel owns Carr and the streak will continue. Ohio State wins this easily and covers. We are betting 5 times our normal betting unti on this game in Brinks Truck style. Back up the truck and load us up with cash!!! Kaching!!!!

Syracuse @ UCONN (-18.5) = This is the Rachel Mcadams game. She basically came out of nowhere in Wedding Crashers and we probably will not hear from her again.

rachel-mcadams.jpg

UCONNS came out of nowhere this year and will lose to West Virginia next week and then probably not be heard from again for a very long time. This is a clean sweep game. UCONN Is coming off a tough loss but knows they still control their own destiny and need to win this game setting up a matchup with West Virginia for a shot at the Big East title. Syracuse is pretty much useless as a team this year and loses out to UCONN in every statistical category that we track. The ATS numbers:

Syracuse
Orange are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 conference games.
Orange are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Orange are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Orange are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Orange are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
Orange are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Orange are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Orange are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Orange are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog.
Orange are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

UCONN
Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Huskies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Huskies are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.

Do you like those ATS numbers…we do!! We would not be surprised to see UCONN win this game by 30 points. UCONN wins and covers easily!!!

San Diego State @ Air Force (-11) = This is the Chick with a gun game. Our little tribute to the armed forces. No real meaning here, just a hot chick with guns. Yeah real guns and “those” guns. Enjoy Miss Alba

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Another clean sweep game here. Air Force simply dominates San Diego across the board. Air Force has a dynamic offense that emabrassed Notre Dame on the road last week and they will continue their onslaught this week. San Diego State can not stop the run; they give up over 182 yards per game and Air Force rushes for 274 yards per game. Can you say UGLY!!! The ATS numbers:

San Diego State
Aztecs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Aztecs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.

Air Force
Falcons are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a striaght up win.
Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Falcons are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

The only thins going for San Diego State is the fact that this is Mrs. Flash Flash’s pick of the week. She has family there and wants them to win. The Syndicate thinks Air Force will pummel this team and we love that it is a home game. Clean sweep teams have a slight advantage when playing at home. Air Force wins and covers!!!

Idaho @ Boise State (-33.5) = Cheerleader versus Cheerleader Game. We are simply picking the team that has the hottest cheerleader.

Boise State

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Idaho

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The Idaho cheerleader second from the left is the hottest on either team. Therefore we are saying that Idaho will cover in this game. Just to be honest with you, we found an undefeated new category in our models and the models say that Idaho will cover. This is part of our proprietary juice so you just have to trust us. Too many points in this one, seriously we are taking Idaho to cover!!

Duke @ Notre Dame (+6) = This is clearly the return of the Britney Spears Train Wreck Game and this time it is a double train wreck. Both teams are a joke just like our C-section pal Britney.

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We have enjoyed some consistent success bettting against Notre Dame this year and we are going to keep it going. Week after week we get to witness (thanks NBC) just how terrible and deflated The Irish are. Air Force was completely dominating the line of scrimmage last week and were driving the Notre Dame D-line back 3-5 yards on every play. Both of these teams stink but we think Duke will play with more Pride. The ATS numbers:

Duke
Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Notre Dame
Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Fighting Irish are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games.
Fighting Irish are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
Fighting Irish are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
Fighting Irish are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
Fighting Irish are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss.
Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. ACC.
Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
Fighting Irish are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Fighting Irish are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Fighting Irish are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

We are not confident Duke can win but we think they will cover!!!

Iowa State @ Kansas (-26.5) = This is the Anna Nicole Smith Game, meaning…Even the Big Ones have to fall and we are not talking about breasts.

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So maybe you were able to figure out where we are going with this game. We think this is the game Kansas finally does not cover. The same statitical undefeated item that Idaho has shows up for Iowa State. We think Kansas wins but we think the prospects of playing against Missouri next week and the continued pressure of being the only undefeated BCS conference team will start to take its toll. Iowa State plays teams tough and the Cyclones have been outscored by an average of 14.5 points on the road this season. Well they are getting 26.5 points so we think it is just too many points. Some ATS numbers to back us up:

Iowa State
Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Cyclones are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Cyclones are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Cyclones are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Cyclones are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
Cyclones are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in November.

Also, throw in the fact that the Cyclones are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings and we feel pretty good that they can cover. Take Iowa State to cover. Sorry Kansas we think you are going to finally let us down this week. It just would not be our blog if we did not give props to Mangino (we think he might be related to Anna Nicole; they are the same size!!!):

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Brinks Truck Bet Alert #2 – Oklahoma St. @ Baylor (+14) = This is our Eva Mendez pick of the week. We think this is the hottest pick out there right now and we are renaiming our Brinks truck bet the the Eva Mendes game and we think you will agree after checking out these pictures.

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This is a fun game to look at, not as fun as Eva’s ass, but fun nonetheless. You want to bet this game and this is our BRINKS TRUCK (now EVA MENDES) bet of the week. We are loading up 5 times our normal betting unit on this game. So far on the season we are 3-3 with these types of bets and we have patiently been waiting for our next opportunity. Well here it is!!! We are completely dumbfounded the line is this low. Before showing you the ATS numbers, take a look at Baylor’s Big 12 games this year:

Lost at Oklahoma 52-21 – Margin of defeat was 31
Lost to Texas Tech 38-7 – Margin of defeat was 31
Lost at Kansas State 51-13 – Margin of defeat was 38
Lost to Texas 31-10 – Margin of defeat was 21
Lost at Kansas 58-10 – Margin of defeat was 48
Lost to Colorado 43-23 – Margin of defeat was 20
Lost at Texas A and M 34-10 – Margin of defeat was 24
Average margin of defeat in all of their Big 12 games this year was 30 points.

Do you see a trend here? How is this spread not more than 20 points. Now on to the ATS numbers that back us up even more:

Oklahoma State
Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Cowboys are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Cowboys are 12-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Cowboys are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite.

Baylor
Bears are 20-42 ATS in their last 62 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Bears are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.
Bears are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games following a ATS win.
Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
Bears are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Bears are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Bears are 8-26 ATS in their last 34 games in November.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Bears are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog.
Bears are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 conference games.
Bears are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.

Throw in the fact that the favorite is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings and the Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings and we are counting the dollars!!! We love this game. Oklahoma State rebounds strong, wins easily and crushes Baylor!!! We are betting 5 times our normal betting unit on this game and you can kiss the Brinks truck bet goodbye because it is now called the Eva Mendes bet!!! How hot is Eva Mendes…one more picture:

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Oklahoma @ Texas Tech (+8) = This is the Lindsey Lohan Red Raider Game. All Flash no substance, Probably has an STD or 130.

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Texas Tech has this glitzy razzle dazzle offense but they never win the big game. All flash and no substance and then their coach goes off on an officiating rant after the Texas game that was like a Lohan drunken coke binge. Lohan mugshot:

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There was just no place for it. Throw in the fact that this is a clean sweep game and we are loving the action. Oklahoma dominates the numbers against Texas Tech and are even more efficient on offense converting third downs. Then when you thrown in the fact that Oklahoma’s defense is significantly better than Texas Tech and wins the turnover ratio battle, we do not think this game will be competitive. The ATS numbers:

Oklahoma
Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on turf.
Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
Sooners are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Sooners are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Sooners are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.
Sooners are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games.
Sooners are 11-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Texas Tech
Red Raiders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
Red Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
Red Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Red Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Red Raiders are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Some more number for you…the Sooners are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings and the Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. What does all of this mean….Oklahoma wins easily and covers!!!!

Miami @ Virginia Tech (-17) = This game is just an excuse to end on a video of a hot latina chick’s ass. Plain and simple. We highly recommend you check out this video.

This is another clean sweep game. Miami is coming off one of their most embarassing losses ever, a 48 point loss to Virginia at home. They also lost at home the previous week to NC State. What has become of THE U? This Miami team is terrible. The Hokies run for almost 80 more yards a game, have one of the best run defenses in the country and are plus 10 for turnover ratio. If you eliminate the last 4 minutes of the BC game, Virginia Tech has been a cover machine down the stretch, winning every game (minus the 4 minutes against BC) since September. The ATS numbers:

Miami
Hurricanes are 4-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Hurricanes are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.
Hurricanes are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
Hurricanes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
Hurricanes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Hurricanes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
Hurricanes are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Virginia Tech
Hokies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Hokies are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 conference games.
Hokies are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
Hokies are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games following a straight up win.

This spread seems high on paper and in name only. We all remember the Virginia Tech/Miami teams of the past but need to remember that this is the present. Throw in that the Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings and we know this line is right. We actually think it could have been over 20 points and we still would have bet on The Hokies. Take Virginia Tech to cover and win in a blow out!!!

These are our picks. We are definitely disappointed in our NCAA season and are looking forward to ending strong and even more profitable than we are now. Please feel free to post comments or suggestions or to email us at rpjsyndicate@gmail.com. We appreciate your input and we know you are out there reading this.

Flash Flash and Runny

November 16, 2007 Posted by | Air Force Falcons, Baylor Bears, BCS, Betting, Big East, Big Ten, Blue Devils, Boise State Broncos, Britney Spears, Broncos, Buckeyes, Charlie Weis, cyclones, Duke, ESPN, Eva Mendes, Falcons, Fighting Irish, Football, Gambling, Golden Gophers, Idaho, Iowa State, Iowa State Cyclones, Irish, Jim Tressel, Kansas Jayhawks, Lindsey Lohan, Lloyd Carr, Mark Mangino, Miami Hurricanes, Michigan Wolverines, Minnesota, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Orangemen, Rachel Mcadams, Red Raiders, San Diego St., Sooners, South Bend, St. Pauli Girl, Syracuse, Texas Tech, Uconn, Virginia Tech, Virginia Tech Hokies, Wisconsin Badgers, Wolverines, Yasmine Bleeth | 2 Comments

NCAA Football Week 11 Picks: Chicks and Hot Picks or Hot Chicks and Picks? Who Cares, Both are Better than Notre Dame!!!

Right now we are 39-35 on the season, 3-3 in Brinks truck bets (5 times your normal betting unit and up 4 units on the season. West Virginia and BYU gave us the Thursday night screw job special. Heading into this weekend we have 8 more picks for you and we are going to reveal these in true celebrity fashion:

The Britney Spears Train Wreck Games – I am hoping you can figure out the reason for our picks in the following two games based on the two pictures below:

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Lets get a close up on that:

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Yup that is Brit up close and personal and if you look above her beaver you can see her C-section scar….YUMMY!!!!! She even grosses Paris Hilton out. Now that says a lot!! Our recommendation to Paris is to have her car seats thoroughly scrubbed. The following two picks are in true train wreck fashion, just like our pal Britney; we have puss shots, C-section scars, drugs, alcohol, Federline….Michael Jackson and OJ get to keep their kids but Brit does not. What the heck did she do to lose child privileges. She defines Train Wreck!!! Now for the games:

Train Wreck Game 1 = Texas A and M @ Missouri (-19) – We love Missouri this year, 7 and 1 against the spread (ATS) and they show a tendency to show no mercy and pour on the points. So why is this a train wreck game….it is all on Franchione, the A and M coach. He was selling insider team news to boosters for $1,200 subscripions and got caught and now he is a distraction to the university and his team. In addition, the Aggies are simply soft. Look at the Aggies road games this year…Lost at Miami 34-17, lost at Texas Tech 35-7, lost at Oklahoma 42-14. Somehow they did manage to beat Nebraska 36-14 on the road but we know Nebraska is the second worse team in the country to Notre Dame so we discount that one. Now we hear that Franchione is in buyout talks with the university and Jeff Tedford is rumoured to be in line to take over for him. There is just too much BS going on with A and M right now and we think they are going to get blown out. Just to kick them while they are down:

Texas A and M
Aggies are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a road underdog.
Aggies are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Aggies are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.

We can rattle of 10 ATS numbers for why Missouri beats their ass but we do not think it is necessary. Missouri leaves C-section scars all over the Aggies, wins and covers.

Train Wreck Game 2 = USC @ California (+4) – Our good friend Jeff Tedford has found a way back into our hearts, blog and picks. As you read above, Tedford is rumoured to be inline for the Texas A and M job and that is just what we wanted to hear…Distraction city for the Cal Bears this week. Cal is a mess and has not covered in 4 games; losing outright in three of them. They barely beat Washington State at home last week. We despise Jeff Tedford and believe he has lost control of this team. He has perhaps the most weapons on offense of any school in the country and he is not using them. How is it that D. Jackson does not even lead the Bears in receptions? Way to promote your Heisman candidate coach! In addition, USC owns Nate Longshore and causes fits for Tedford’s offense. With the E-Freak coming off a 3.5 sack game against Oregon State and the USC defense racking up 9 sacks; we think Longshore will be running for his life and making very bad decisions. Some ATS numbers for you:

Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

USC
Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Trojans are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Trojans are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games in November.

California
Golden Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Golden Bears are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
Golden Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
Golden Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Golden Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

USC is back on the scene, easy win and cover for the Trojans!!!

Lauren Conrad vs. Heidi Montag Smack Down Games – These two crazy bitches hate each other and love having their catty little fights on The Hills MTV show.

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Basically these two feud constantly and bash each other on the show and in the media so what better games to compare them to than to two SEC battles.

Game 3 = Arkansas @ Tennessee (pick em) = We love this matchup and as a real surprise, Arkansas is a clean sweep from a stats view point. Tennessee does not have a great run defense and The Razorbacks dynamic duo is coming off a game where they ran for 487 yards combined. In addition, the Razorbacks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. One thing to think about is that Tennessee is undefeated at home this season and this is a pick em game. We think there is no time like the present for a Vols loss. Here are some ATS numbers for you:

Arkansas
Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Razorbacks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
Razorbacks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.

Tennessee
Volunteers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games in November.

Take Arkansas for the win in this game!!! This is also the Mrs. Frash Flash pick of the week. She is 1-1 on the season and she likes Arkansas to win this week because crazy girls go to Tennessee. We do not know what that means but that is her logic.

Game 4 = Auburn @ Georgia (+2) – We love seeing Auburn as the road dog in an SEC game. The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Georgia and the Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Auburn has a nasty defense and will be able to take advantage of Georgia’s youth on the offensive line and in the backfield. We love Auburn’s ATS numbers this week and they come across as one of the strongest opportunities we have had in awhile:

Auburn
Tigers are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.

Georgia
Bulldogs are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss.
Bulldogs are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite.
Bulldogs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Bulldogs are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.
Bulldogs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Georgia is just not that impressive to us and we love whenever you can give points to Auburn on the road. Take Auburn for the cover and do not be surprised if they win.

Rosie O’Donnell Fat Slobby Pig Game – Rosie O’Donnell is a big fat nasty pig of a woman who is opinionated and loud and really does not have anything meaningful to say. Sound familiar to you, still guessing, thinking….Notre Dame Fans are loud, obnoxious, think they have a good coach, top recruiting classes, are always the team to beat, etc….Excuses, excuses, excuses!!!

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Game 5 = Air Force @ Notre Dame (+3.5) – Do we really need to talk about this game? Just bet against Notre Dame and its 119th rated offense every single week. We wanted to point out that we are not the only people bashing Notre dame and Charlie Weis…check out a recent Jason Whitlock article: Weis’ NFL experience not helping him now. Also we saw this news and had to let out a chuckle, “Freshman Jimmy Clausen will start at quarterback for the Irish against Air Force on Saturday, Notre Dame announced Wednesday. Irish coach Charlie Weis did not make himself available for comment but a team spokesman said Weis would address the choice Thursday evening.” We love betting against Claussen’s noodle arm and terrible decision making ability. Some ATS numbers, not like you needed them:

Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Air Force
Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
Falcons are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Notre Dame
Fighting Irish are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.
Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
Fighting Irish are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog.
Fighting Irish are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.
Fighting Irish are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Fighting Irish are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Fighting Irish are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Fighting Irish are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.

Notre Dame can not beat Navy as a favorite and now they are home underdogs to Airforce. What has this world come to? Notre Dame is defeated and Charlie is a technician, not a motivator. The Notre Dame program is in trouble!!! Take Air Force to win and cover with ease!

The Broncos Cheerleaders Game – We were not witty enough to come up with a real game comparison for the following so we decided to show a picture of the hottest Boise State cheerleader. Enjoy!

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Game 6 = Boise State @ Utah State (+24.5) – This is not going to be a competitive game and the decision simply comes down to are you comfortable enough in Boise State’s ability to crush an opponent on the road by more than 24 points. Let us try to convince you! Boise State is a clean sweep team this week. They run for more than 85 yards more than Utah St., are far more efficient in converting third downs (51.4% versus 31.0%, give up 80 yards rushing less on defense per game and stop offenses from converting third downs (31.9% versus 46.7%). Can you smell the burning flesh? The Broncos are going to run all over these guys. Also, keep it in the back of your mind that Boise State plays with a lot of pride and is on a roll since losing to Washington. Boise State knows they need to remain undefeated heading into their end of season matchup at Hawaii for the title. Boise State knows what is at stake and will continue their destruction of conference foes. Some ATS numbers:

Boise State
Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Utah State.
Broncos are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Utah State
Aggies are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games in November.
Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Boise State wins in a blow out and covers easily. Do not be afraid of the points!!!

The Keira Knightley Tribute to Pirates Game – You probably can not figure out what we mean by this game and neither can we. This was the toughest game to categorize because zero people are going to watch it cause nobody cares but degenerate gamblers like us. Enjoy the picture and we will get into the game below.

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Game 7 = East Carolina @ Marshall (+7) – This game stacks up as another clean sweep game. East Carolina likes to run (173 YPG) and Marshall can not stop the run (211.4 YPG). Do you need more? How about the turnover ratio…East Carolina plus 14 and Marshall minus 12. We were salivating that this line was under 10 points and do not think this game will be competitive at all. The ATS numbers:

East Carolina
Pirates are 10-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Pirates are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
Pirates are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Pirates are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Pirates are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Pirates are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 conference games.
Pirates are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
Pirates are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win.

Marshall
Thundering Herd are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in November.
Thundering Herd are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Thundering Herd are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog.
Thundering Herd are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Thundering Herd are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Thundering Herd are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

East Carolina wins and covers easily!!!

The Cindy Crawford is Still Hot Game – Yep. Cindy Crawford was born in 1966, meaning she is over 40 and still damn hot. She just keeps on ticking and has been a model since she was 16. It does not matter what decade she works in, if she has kids, Cindy still rises to the top and is hot. Get where we are going with this one.

cindy-pic.jpg

Game 8 = Kansas @ Oklahoma State (+6) – Kansas remains the only unbeaten team in Div-1 against the spread sitting at 8-0 on the season. They also destroyed Nebraska last week. They also have Mangino. People thought the points last week were too high and Kansas blasted right through it. Well this week they face an Oklahoma State team on the road, a team that led Texas 35-17 in the 4th quarter last week and choked. We know a lot of people that are picking Oklahoma for the straight upset and we are not going to get sucked in. Both teams run and are efficient on offense but Kansas has a much better defense and causes a lot more turnovers. One ATS number has us worried and that is the fact that the Jayhawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Something to think about, yes, but something to change bets on, NO!!! The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and Kansas looks nasty ATS-wise:

Kansas
Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.

Oklahoma State
Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
Cowboys are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Cowboys are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.

We think Kansas is hot and will remain hot. Take the Jayhawks for the win and cover!!!!

And there you have it. Hot chicks and hot picks!!! Hope you enjoyed the blog. Please feel free to leave comments or to ask us to pick additional games for you. We are here to be used as a service and a tool to make YOU money!!! Also, sign up for our RSS feeds so you can get our posts in real time and before the lines move on you. If you signed up to our blog you probably would have received Central Michigan at minus 2.5 as a winner and not at minus 3 as a push.

Flash Flash and Runny

November 9, 2007 Posted by | Air Force Falcons, Arkansas Razorbacks, Auburn Tigers, BCS, Betting, Boise State Broncos, Britney Spears, Broncos, Bulldogs, California, Charlie Weis, Cindy Crawford, Dennis Franchione, East Carolina, East Carolina Pirates, ESPN, Falcons, Fighting Irish, Football, Gambling, Georgia Bulldogs, Golden Bears, Heidi Montag, Irish, Jeff Tedford, Jimmy Claussen, Kansas Jayhawks, Keira Knightley, Lauren Conrad, Mark Mangino, Marshall, Marshall Thundering Herd, NCAA, NCAA Picks, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Pac-10, SEC, South Bend, Tenn, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Trojans, USC, USC Trojans, Utah State Aggies, Volunteers, Winning Picks | 1 Comment

NCAA Football Week 11 Picks: The Significance of November 8 (hint: Rudy Ruettiger) and Thursday’s picks

First things first, on the season we are 39-33, 3-3 for Brinks truck bets and up 6 units on the season. It was nice to start the week 1-0. We knew the LeFevour would not let us down.

November 8, 1975 is a magical day in the history of NCAA football. This is the date the biggest ahole, loser in college football played in his one and only game. Yes, Daniel E. ‘Rudy’ Ruettiger dressed for Notre Dame in his final game against Georgia Tech. Just to debunk some of the Rudy myths….the crowd was not chanting Rudy’s name at all and he played in two plays, not one. The first play he was useless and on the second play he recorded half a sack. If you listen to the broadcast they do not even mention his name. Here is the Youtube clip of the game.

In addition, the team did not actually lay the jerseys on the desk. Rudy admits this on his website. In reality, the team captain, who speaks for the team, went to the coach and asked him to give Rudy a chance and let him play in a game. Because Notre Dame is having such a great season we thought we would honor Rudy and point out that he is just as big a fraud as the current Notre Dame Meek Irish. In case you did not figure it out yet, we decided that Notre Dame is no longer the “Fighting Irish”. They lost the right to call themselves that during the Georgia Tech game this year. Was there anybody else in America that watched the Navy/Notre Dame game and could not tell who was who? Somebody needs to research the NCAA recruiting trade rags because there is no way in hell Notre Dame has recruited a top ten class for the last three years. Notre Dameis a joke and has won one national championship in the last thirty years; the same as schools like CLemson and Washington. Time to move on folks….We live in the present not the past.

Now on to the picks:

1 – Louisville @ West Virginia (-16.5) – West Virginia is coming off a bye, which will give Pat White a chance to get healthy and this is a revenge game after Louisville won 44-34 last year. All stats point to West Virginia in this one and they know that they are still in the hunt to play in the BCS National Championship game if they can win out and get some help. Louisville is a mess, their defense has been bad all year and now their offense can not get going against the likes of Pitt (won 24-17), Uconn (lost 21-17), Cincy (won 28-24). West Virginia is going to run all over these guys….they literally run for double what Louisville does…298 to 150…meaning West Virginia is going to control the game clock and wear down an already terrible defense. Some against the spread (ATS) numbers for you:

West Virginia
Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. Mountaineers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week. Mountaineers are 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 conference games. Mountaineers are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.

Louisville
Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.

These teams have only met 7 times since 1985 and West Virginia is 4-2-1 ATS in those contests. Out of these 7 games, West Virginia is 4-1 ATS when playing at home. We think West Virginia wins this going away. Think Rutgers but worse.

2 – TCU @ BYU (-7) – BYU is nasty at home and on Thursday nights. Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games. Cougars are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. Cougars are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite. BYU has been a nice home cover team as well this year. They have won every game ATS at home this season and blew out Colorado State 35-16 but did not cover the 21 points they needed; came darn close though. We think BYU can easily beat TCU by 10 or more. TCU is spotty at best has one two game win streak on the season and BYU has won 5 in a row. Some more ATS numbers:

TCU
Horned Frogs are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Horned Frogs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass. Horned Frogs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0. Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.

BYU
Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Cougars are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite. Cougars are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games on grass. Cougars are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall.

One other thing to consider….The weather in Fort Worth Texas this week is averaging 75 degrees. The weather in Provo, Utah at game time….a balmy 38 degrees. Always bet against the warm weather team travelling to the cold.

BYU wins easily

We will be back again this week with our weekend picks.

Flash Flash and Runny

November 7, 2007 Posted by | BYU Cougars, Fighting Irish, Football, Gambling, Horned Frogs, Irish, Louisville Cardinals, Mountaineers, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Notre Dame, Rudy Ruettiger, TCU, West Virginia, Winning Picks | 6 Comments

NCAA Football Week 11 Picks: Who needs Saturday night fever when you have Tuesday night LeFevour!!!

Nothing like a full week of NCAA football games and the Tuesday night special with our favorite NCAA player. That is right, we have the fever for LeFevour once again. Before we get into the heart of the matter at hand…….The Syndicate, for NCAA football picks is 38-33 on the season, 3-3 on Brinks truck bets (bet 5 times your normal unit) and up 5 units. We are coming off a solid 7-3 week.

Please study the picture below, absorb the strength, study the face that represents winning, bask in his success, bow to his majesty, revel in his greatness……OK our man crush reached the creepy stage.

the-fever.jpg

That right there is the face of victory!!!! Learn about the man at his Wikipedia website. and right from the Central Michigan website.

Central Michigan comes at this game with a lot going for it. They win every statistical matchup and besides their Clemson letdown they have been cover machines for almost two months. Western Michigan is terrible and has NOT COVERED over the same time frame. They could not even cover against Northern Illinois, which surprising enough, is worse of a team than they are but probably still better than Notre Dame. Here is what you need to know against the spread (ATS):

Central Michigan

Chippewas are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Chippewas are 10-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Chippewas are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite.
Chippewas are 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 conference games.
Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
Chippewas are 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.
Chippewas are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS win.
Chippewas are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Chippewas are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite.

Western Michigan

Broncos are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Broncos are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog.
Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Only one thing stands out against this game and that is the fact that the Chippewas are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings. On the contrary though, the favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. We are not afraid and Mr. LeFevour will not let us down.

So for all of you gambling degenerates out there jump on this MAC contest, the Tuesday night special and the Fever for LeFevour contest. You will not be disappointed. Central Michigan wins this easily. We got this game at Central Michigan (-2.5) so shop around for the best line because we see it at Central Michigan (-3) also. The points should not matter but we all know the importance of a half a point.

We will have more picks for you later in the week. We updated our blog and you should be able to sign up for an RSS feed if you want to receive our posts in real time. We are here to keep you informed and to give you every chance of making money.

Flash Flash and Runny

November 6, 2007 Posted by | Betting, Broncos, Central Michigan, Chippewas, Dan LaFevour, ESPN, Fighting Irish, Irish, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Notre Dame, W. Michigan, Western Michigan | 2 Comments

NCAA Football Week 10 Picks: From the Outhouse to the Penthouse

The Suicidal Tendancies said it best:

“The penthouse or the outhouse? Seems like an easy decision to me. So what we’re all thinkin’ about right now is what we’re talkin’ about, what we’re talkin’ about is what we’re thinkin’ about, and that’s the whole point: you should think before you talk. So where we’re at right now is a place that we want to go: a little bit of help. See: everyday, everywhere you go, people do stupid things. Three hundred and sixty five days out of the year, people not thinkin’. People that have the ability to think, that aren’t thinkin’. So what we want to do is nominate one day. Call it International Don’t Be Stupid Day. Now what this is gonna do is be a little reminder, maybe we could wear a pin, maybe you could send a tape to somebody, and when they start to do somethin’ you say, whoa, whoa, whoa. Hold on there partner. Today is Don’t Be Stupid Day, so you can’t do that.”

Last week was plain old stupid and we are going to rise from the outhouse to the penthouse this week and in the coming weeks with our Stupid Day behind us. After 10 weeks we are 31-30 overall, 3-3 with Brinks truck bets (bet 5 times your normal bet) and up 1 unit. Yes this record makes us sick and we just puked in our mouthes writing those numbers. It is tough to go through some losing weeks and in 9 weeks we have only had 2 down weeks. We feel your pain because we always bet what we write and bet the lines we post.

We are not going to sit here and make excuses. You all saw that during the same weekend we went 2-8 in NCAA picks we went 5-0 in the NFL. Picks will go up and down but we know our system picks consistent winners over the course of the season and takes advantage of the mecca that is called Bowl Season. And now with the picks…..

Clean Sweep Games – These our games where we find teams that have a statistical advantage over their opponent and by statistical advantage we mean that the opponent is not better in any of the areas we track. We track rushing offenses, 3rd down conversions, rushing defenses, defensive 3rd down conversions and turnover ratio. Well this is what we publically say because we have some other secret SAUCE stats that we keep to ourselves.

My baby got sauce
Your baby ain’t sweet like mine
She got sauce
Your baby ain’t sweet like mine
She got sauce ….
That’s some funky lemonade you got going there babe

The picks were funky last week but we know a weekend where we crush it again is right around the corner cause we have the Special Sauce.

1 – Clemson (-16.5) @ Duke – Clemson dominates Duke across the board and we won with a Va Tech team at Duke a few weeks back. Duke is really bad, not Notre Dame bad, but bad. Ha ha. We love ripping the Notre Dame Quivering Irish (stay tuned for a special write up on the Navy/Notre Dame game – this gets its own blog). Clemson is going to run all over the Blue Devils and embarass them. Two points to consider if you are squeamish…Home team is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings and Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Duke. We think some other stats are more important like Tigers are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Blue Devils are 10-27 ATS in their last 37 home games. Blue Devils are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog. Blue Devils are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater. AND OUR FAVORITE…Blue Devils are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Tigers maul the Blue Devils. Everybody knows devils are red, c’mon now. Clemson wins and covers!!!

2 – South Carolina @ Arkansas (-4.5) – South Carolina can not stop the run and they certainly have never stopped McFadden…he ran for 219 yards in 2006 and 187 yards in 2005. Now with Felix Jones also in the backfield averaging 8.8 yards a carry…the Game Cocks are in trouble. Spurrier now is tinkering with his offense and QB and we think that means trouble. Arkansas QB, Casey Dick, suffered a concussion last week and was replaced by Nathan Emert who filled in adequately. As we said this game is about running. Arkansas runs for 288 yards a game and South Carolina gives up 169. This is going to be a long day for South Carolina. Arkansas covers and wins!!!

Bye Bye Birdie Games

“Bye Bye Birdie
I’m gonna miss you so;
Bye Bye Birdie,
Why’d you have to go?

If you read and follow college football you know that BCS conference teams coming off a bye are 20-8 against the spread. We like two of these teams who are playing at home. Bye bye road teams, thanks for playing.

3 – Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech (-2.5) – The entire nation felt the Hokies heartbreak last Thursday night in a brutal home loss to BC. Now the Hokies must travel to Atlanta to face a Georgia Tech team that is rested, playing at home and on national tv. In other words this has heartbreak city and major let down written all over it. Georgia Tech has a punishing ground attack and one of the best defensive schemes in the country. The Hokies have one of the worst offenses in college football. This game will likely start on even footing but G. Tech will wear down the Hokies by the end of the game. This game will be a beatdown if Glennon plays. Georgia Tech wins and covers!!!

4 – Texas A and M @ Oklahoma (minus 21) – We are not afraid of the points. Kansas easily defeated A and M on the road and Oklahoma will not have any problem at home. The Aggies players know they are playing for a lame duck coach after Coach Fran’s email booster incident. Oklahoma is coming off the bye and looking to continue its push for the BCS title game. Sooners win in a blowout!!!

The Pimp Hand Games

Yeah bitch I got my Now and Later gators on
I’m bout to show you how my pimp hand is way strong
Your dead wrong if ya think that pimpin’ gon’ die
Twelve piece with a hundred hoes by my side

We hope this is self explanatory. When teams are hot you ride em til they show a weak pimp hand.

5 – Nebraska @ Kansas (minus 180) – The high spread scares us but Kansas is 7-0 against the spread. Kansas was damn close to a clean sweep but missed out on offensive third down conversions by 2 percentage points. Kansas rushes for almost 65 more yards a game, has a much better defense and wins the turnover ratio 11 to minus 9. They also have the fattest coach in the history of the NCAA. We pointed this out last week and there is no denying Mark Mangino.

mangino-for-week-10.jpgmangino-for-week-10.jpg

That right there is the Kansas coach. Large and in charge and we are not going to tell him he won’t cover. He is so fat we put his pic in twice so you do not do a double take.  Oh yeah, and you see that liquid that is covering him? That is from the cloud he just engulfed. As far as we are concerned, Coach Mangino has the largest pimp hand on the planet. In a pimp hand game, always take the guy with the biggest pimp hand. Ride this Kansas team until they blow it. Kansas wins and covers!!!

6 – Missouri (-4) @ Colorado – Yeah we know Missouri cut us last week but that was their only loss against the spread all season. Missouri did lose their starting Strong Safety last week but we do not think it will matter against Colorado’s young QB. We all saw what Missouri’s D did to Texas Tech. Kansas went on the road to Boulder and covered and now Missouri will do the same. If you are afraid to back Missouri here are some numbers for you… Tigers are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Tigers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss. AND JUST TO KICK THEM WHEN THEY ARE DOWN…Buffaloes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 conference games. Buffaloes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win. Buffaloes are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog. Buffaloes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win. Buffaloes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Missouri has the Show Me State pimp hand rockin’ and they will show the Univeristy of Colorado what its all about as they show us the money. Missouri wins and covers!!!

The SEC Road Cover Game

On the road again
Like a band of gypsies we go down the highway
We’re the best of friends
Insisting that the world be turnin’ our way
And our way
Is on the road again
Just can’t wait to get on the road again
The life I love is makin’ music with my friends
And I can’t wait to get on the road again

We love betting the highest competitive SEC road game when we think two teams are competitive enough to play the game.

7 – Vanderbilt (plus 14.5) @ Florida – This game is absolutely terrifying. Florida got the snot kicked out of it last week against Georgia and Vandy beat a Miami-Ohio team in a very unconvincing manner. So why do we like this game. Georgia showed how to beat Florida. You can score on them, they turn the ball over and they do not have a RB that Urban Meyer trusts. Vanderbilt has the 14th rated defense in the league and Tebow is beat up. Look at some of the against the spread numbers (ATS)…Commodores are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Commodores are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. Commodores are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Commodores are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog. Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Commodores are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 road games. Gators are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite. Gators are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 conference games. Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November. Gators are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. The numbers do not lie. Vandy plays teams tough and rises to the challenge and Florida plays down to its competition. Cringe, close your eyes and ride Vandy to the cover!!!

The Magic Carpet Ride Game

Well, you don’t know what we can find
Why don’t you come with me little girl
On a magic carpet ride
You don’t know what we can see
Why don’t you tell your dreams to me
Fantasy will set you free
Close your eyes girl
Look inside girl
Let the sound take you away

When you see a player mature and rise up to victory like Matt Ryan did against Virginia Tech last week you absolutely positively want to ride the momentum and this leads us to the next game…

8 – Florida State @ Boston College (-7) – We can not believe this spread is under 10 points and Boston College has been feasting on ACC foes all year. BC is 5-2 ATS this year and the two losses were against Notre Dame in the fix game (sorry, still sour over this one) and Army. They have easily covered against NC State and Georgia Tech and scrapped out the win versus the Hokies under brutal conditions. This is not a let down game Trust us!!! Seminoles are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Seminoles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Seminoles are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games in November. Seminoles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games. Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Eagles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite. Eagles are 35-17 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Boston College wins and covers no problem!!!

The Ruler’s Back Game

Gather ’round party goers as if your still livin
And get on down to the old Slick rhythm
Now this one here is called the Ruler my dear
Its a mere party booster that will set things clear
Its a hundred percent proof from champions of truth
And if you feel you need spirit I’ll bring back your youth
Relax your mind, and folks unwind
And be kind to a rhythm that you hardly find
And off we go, let the trumpets blow
Well hold on, because the driver of the mission is a pro
The Ruler’s back

Just when everybody said it was impossible to go play Penn State during a white out at night and all the so-called experts were declaring Ohio State was prime for the pickings they laid a whooping on Joe Pa and the Fraidy Cat Lions. What a joke and that leads us to the same scenario this week.

9 – Wisconsin @ Ohio State (-15.5) – Wisconsin lost 38-7 at Penn State and Ohio State beats Penn State 37-17. Now we hear rumblings that PJ Hill is injured and might not play not that he would have mattered against Ohio State’s defense. Rumaging across the Internet we see that 56% of people are placing bets on Wisconsin, so that means the average Joe Blow thinks Wisconsin is getting too many points and now we have ATS numbers that tell us to run away too…Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Ohio State. Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings. Underdog is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings. All signs point to Wisconsin until you realize Ohio State has not played Wisconsin since 2004 meaning in the Barry Alvarez days. This is a different team and has shown that they will collapse against an aggressive defense. We could show you stats either way but if Ohio State can beat Penn State by 20 on the road they certainly can beat Wisconsin at home by 20 and we need less than that to cover. Buckeyes continue their onslaught on the Big Ten…win and cover!!!

And there you have it. 9 games to bet on. Take our picks or don’t…we do not care cause our money is on these games right now. We always play what we preach.

Please feel free to post comments, ask questions about games we did not pick or post your own picks to show us what you got.

‘Cause it makes me that much stronger
Makes me work a little bit harder
Makes me that much wiser
So thanks for making me a fighter
Made me learn a little bit faster
Made my skin a little bit thicker
It makes me that much smarter
So thanks for making me a fighter

Flash Flash and Runny

P.S. The Cal Golgen Bears were a clean sweep game this week but simply on principle of Jeff Tedford eating back to back turd sandwiches and wearing an XL butt plug we are stayaing as far away from the Washington St./Cal game as we can. Avoid that game at all costs. Still working on the Tedford turd sandwich. We will have our day!!!!

November 1, 2007 Posted by | Arkansas Razorbacks, BCS, Betting, Big Ten, Blue Devils, Boston College, Buckeyes, Clemson, Colorado Buffaloes, Commodores, Cornhuskers, Duke, Eagles, ESPN, Fighting Irish, Florida, Florida Gators, Football, Gambling, Gamecock, Georgia Tech, Irish, Jeff Tedford, Kansas Jayhawks, Mark Mangino, Matt Ryan, Missouri, Navy, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, SEC, Sooners, South Carolina Gamecocks, Texas A&M, Tim Tebow, Urban Meyer, Vanderbilt, VaTech, Virginia Tech, Virginia Tech Hokies, Wisconsin Badgers, Yellow Jackets | 2 Comments

NCAA Football Week 9 Picks: The Power of 10 – 10 Winning Picks and 10 Observations from South Bend

“It is not worth an intelligent man’s time to be in the majority. By definition, there are already enough people to do that.” — Godfrey Harold Hardy

Sometimes sports betting becomes one big quandary, picks do not seem logical, spreads do not make sense and you are left scratching your head trying to find a new edge. Our picks are not going to put you in the majority of the betting world and that is a good thing. We have a system and we know it works, no matter how crazy logic fights what we are telling you to do. Do we want it to work better…sure we do but we are picking winners at a 57% right now, we have had one losing week this entire season. So while the other handicappers and sports bettors are trying to find winners we know our big pay day is right around the corner. Stick with us-we do the research so you don’t have to. Our system works and you will continue to see that we are elite. Bring on Bowl Season already!!!!

As always, our disclaimer, we are 29-22 on the season, 3-3 with our Brinks Truck bets (5 times your normal betting unit, and we are up 7 units on the season. Lastly, our money is where our mouth is. We bet every one of these games at the lines we post.

We are not laying down a Brinks truck bet this week. The truck is still in the shop!

The theme of this week is The Power of 10. We have 10 picks for you and we are going to share 10 observations from our trip to South Bend this past weekend where we witnessed just how bad the Notre Dame Cowering Irish football team really is.

Betting Group 1
Clean Sweep Games….These are games where one team has a clear statistical advantage over the other team. Some of the categories we consider are efficiency running the ball, converting third downs, stopping the run, stopping third downs and turnover ratio. If a team can control the clock and the ball, they are going to win and cover.

1 – UNC @ Wake Forest (-5.5) = This game is clear cut. Wake Forest runs for almost 50 yards more per game and is almost 10 percentage points higher converting third downs…42.2% versus 32.7%. Tie that in with a superior defense and a clear advantage in the turnover ration +4 versus -4 and you have a team playing at home in the midst of a 5 game winning streak. Some against the spread numbers (ATS) for you…Demon Deacons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in October. Demon Deacons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. Demon Deacons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games. Tar Heels are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. 6 points seems high and most experts are picking UNC after they scrapped it out with South Carolina two weeks ago. The “Clean sweep” stats are what is important to us and we are taking Wake. Plus, Wake is at home against a bitter in-state rival. Wake wins and covers!

Notre Dame Observation #1: Before we walked into the game, while we were walking around campus, we actually heard a student or young alumnus say the following: “Back in the good old days, when there were no girls at Notre Dame….” We were laughing so hard that we did not even bother listening to what he said after that because he was dead serious when he said it. The ND girls are not known to be lookers but at least they are not swinging tube steaks down there. The football team is bad and now the guys do not like girls. What has become of Notre Dame.

2 – Miami-Ohio @ Vanderbilt (-14) = Vandy wins the statistical battle across the board and is coming off an awesome win at South Carolina. Vanderbilt preys on the bad..Beat Richmond 41-17, Ole Miss 31-17 and Eastern Michigan 30-7. Some ATS numbers for you… Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf. Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Redhawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Redhawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on turf. Miami-Ohio just lost to Temple. TEMPLE!!!!! We think that says it all. Vandy wins easily.

Notre Dame Observation #2: At kickoff there were actually empty seats noticeable in the entire stadium, even the student section. We even received a call that we could buy 12 tickets at face value Friday afternoon. How much of a joke is that? Now you have a school where the Boys do not like girls and even the students turned on the football team.

3 – Iowa St. @ Missouri (-28.5) = Missouri is 6 and 0 against the spread and we love picking them. Now we all know we blew it with the Oklahoma/Iowa State game but this is payback. Last week was Iowa State’s homecoming, they were playing as hard as they have all year and eventually blew the game in the end. Missouri absolutely destroyed a dynamic Texas Tech team and loves to pour on the points. Iowa State will be in let down mode and Missouri will capitalize. I do not even need to break down the statistical differences between these two teams. It is a joke. 28.5 points are nothing in this matchup. Some ATS numbers for you….Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games. Tigers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October. Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. We think that says it all. Bet Missouri with confidence.

Notre Dame Observation #3: The fan base has turned on the team. Our favorite heckler kept yelling at Charlie Weis to run the ball three times for no gain and then punt so they could at least say they successfully punted the ball. it was loud, it was ugly and the fans are not happy in South Bend.

4 – UVA (-3) @ NC State = Here is what we know about NC State, they can not stop the run, can not run the ball and have turned the ball over 24 times this year for a minus 17 turnover ratio. Enough said? You could have given us 14 points in this game and we would have taken it. Just to rub it in….Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Cavaliers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games. Wolfpack are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win. Wolfpack are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games. Wolfpack are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games in October. Wolfpack are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games on grass. Wolfpack are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog. Wolfpack are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Wolfpack are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 conference games. Wolfpack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. We think you can see what we are talking about.

We are breaking out a new feature this week. Mrs. Flash Flash is jealous of Mrs. Bill Simmons and her NFL picking weekly feature so she wanted to speak her mind this week. Her pick of the week is this game because she likes UVA’s uniforms better than all the other teams we selected. We are not kidding. Use this information as you will UVA wins easily so says The Syndicate and Mrs. Flash Flash.

Notre Dame Observation #4: Notre Dame had one pre season all american candidate on defense and it was Tom Zibikowksi, a senior and I think a 5th year senior at that. Well USC came out and spread the ball and put Joe McKnight, a true freshman, isolated outside against Zibikowski. You would think a 5th year senior pre-season all american would have no problem covering an 18 year old kid but Zibikowski was jumping up and down that he needed help and could not cover the kid. Lucky for him, McKnight’s number was not called. Even the TV announcers picked up on this. What a joke. Notre Dame is over hyped and under talented.

Betting Group 2
The Turnover Dilemma Games…This is an interesting development. Teams that appear to have the statistical edge in every category with the exception of turnover ratio are only 7-7 and against the spread in the last 4 weeks. When you look at the home and away breakdown of this 7-7 number we came up with an even more revealing figure…..the home team that has a statistical advantage but does not have the turnover ratio advantage does not cover. We came up with two betting situations that we like applying this theory.

5 – Indiana (+7.5) @ Wisconsin = Wisonsin’s turnover ratio is minus 6 on the season and they have turned the ball over 13 times. Indiana is plus three on the year and has a ball hawking defense that has caused 20 turnovers. Another interesting stat…the road team is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 meetings. Indiana has been streaky and a tough team to figure out this year but we do know they can score points against anybody…31 against Penn State and 38 against Iowa are two impressive performances and they covered in both. Indiana went toe to toe with Penn State and came up just short. We think Wisconsin is a shell of its former self and their home field advantage is not as relevant as it was in the Barry Alvarez days. Some ATS numbers to back up this pick….Hoosiers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Hoosiers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in October. Badgers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Badgers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Badgers are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games. Plus, Wisconsin’s QB plays as nervous as a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs, and IU’s QB is a stud with a phenom wideout. Indiana will cover this line and do not be surprised if they win outright.

Notre Dame observation #5: The student section gave the USC cheerleaders a standing ovation. This caught us by surprise because the male student body already was on record saying the school was better when there were no girls there and now they were applauding the USC cheerleaders and then it struck us (NOTE: These girls were extremely attractive). Due to the high level of homosexuality that is now prevalent amongst Catholic Priests, the male student body must be primarliy gay and therefore was applauding the dance moves of the cheerleaders. We researched and heard that modern dance was now the number 1 sought after major by males on campus.

6 – Stanford (+13.5) @ Oregon State = Two more scary teams. Stanford beats USC one week and loses to TCU the following week. Oregon St. gets destroyed by Cincy and then beats Cal. Standford’s RB situation is unknown at this point due to injuries and that has us nervous but we love the scrappiness of Tavita Pritchard, Stanford’s QB. He led them back against Arizona last week and has the same “never quit” attitude that Vince Young has. Just so you are not totally afraid to make this bet…..Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Cardinal are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in October. And on the flip side….Beavers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Not much to go on but enough for us. Stanford continues to show its grit and covers.

Notre Dame Observation #6: We witnessed the strength, power and speed of the E-Freak up close and personal. Everson Griffen, #93 on the Trojans, all 6 foot 3 inches 265 pounds of him. A true freshman listed as a DE. This kid was a freak of nature out there. They brough him out primarily in passing situations and he was a beast and all over the field, even knocking down a pass. What was most impressive was when Pete Carroll lined up the E-freak at CB. Yes, he lined him up at cornerback!!!! We were dumbfounded and they ran to his side and the E-freak got involved on the tackle. You know your offense is absolutely the worst in the nation when an 18 year old defensive end can line up on your WRs. Man Notre Dame was bad!!! Look out for good things to come from the E-Freak. Watch out Dennis Dixon.

The Straight Cash Homey Picks: Sorry folks but we can not give away all our secrets. These are our special picks that we are more than happy to throw our own money on.

7 – Kansas (-2.5) @ Texas AandM = Ride the winning horse until it is defeated. Kansas is 6 and 0 against the spread. They pulled out a nice win at Colorado last week and will look to beat another Big 12 team on the road. Here are some ATS stats for you: Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October. Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Jayhawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games. Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Aggies are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The thing we think is most important though and the true reason for their success….Mark Mangino, the Jayhawk coach. This guy is by far one of the fattest coaches in the history of NCAA football. Check it out:

mangino-action-shot.jpg

Are you kidding us with this guy?!?!? He makes Charlie Weis look like Calista Flockhart!!! This guy is a monster and we would not screw with him….Ride that Kansas horse until it needs to be shot. Jayhawks win and cover on the road!

Notre Dame Observation #7: During the third quarter, Sharpley passed to Travis Thomas who was lit up by Cary Harris and fumbled the ball which was recovered by Keith Rivers. We were on the complete opposite side of the stadium when this hit went down and we could hear it…it sounded like somebody was cracking wood. We have never been to a live sporting event and heard a hit like this in our lifetime. We are not sure how it carried over on television or even how it looked but it sounded great. It is impressive that Travis Thomas got up and his head was still attached to his body.

8 – Arizona @ Washington (-3.5) = Wildcats are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games in October. Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Wildcats are 2-9 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Washington is extrememly well coached. Not saying AU is not, but Ty is a much better coach. He will have them ready to rock. They put up points and Oregon last week and kept that game close. AU will not like the road trip. Washington covers easily.

Notre Dame Observation #8: Jimmy Clausen’s prediction that he will never lose to USC if he is QB actually came true. Jimmy has been so good playing that Weis benched him and Jimmy was able to follow through with his bold prediction. No playing time = no chance of losing to USC. Nice work on your prediction Jimmy. Three more years to go with that one!!!

9 – Georgia @ Florida (-8.5) = This game will be a street fight. Look for big hits. These games have been close in the recent history. This game is being played in J’Ville, but the home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Gators are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Gators are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in October. Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Bulldogs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS loss. Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in October. Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Florida. Gators just have more athletes and more people to lay the lumber. If Florida can cover 9 against Kentucky, they can cover this. Take Florida and give the points.

Notre Dame Observation #9: We observed just how bad Notre Dame is as a team, coaches included. There is zero talent on that team and the play calling was worse than Ron Zook’s at Florida. If you do not know what I am talking about go find a Gators fan and he/she will fill you right in. Screen, screen, draw, screen, etc… You get our drift. Weis was terrible and needs to be held accountable for his game planning and the talent he recruited. He was bad and the players were bad and unprepared. Sharpley looked frantic on every passing play. We observed a horrendous ND team suffer the second worse home loss in its storied history and we loved it. Leprechaun land does not even have anything good to root for in the near term. You know the country is moving in the right direction when Notre Dame has one win and is ranked last in NCAA on offense. We love it!!!

10 – California (+3) @ Arizona State= This a BCS debacle game. We are playing the numbers here. Cal has lost two games in a row but they have not lost three straight games since losing the first 10 games of their 1-10 season in 2001. Also, the Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings and none of the games have been decided by less than 17 points. Golden Bears are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog. Golden Bears are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog. Golden Bears are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Sun Devils are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. The Sun Devils best RB, Ryan Torain, their leading rusher and scorer is now out for the season. Arizona State is not battle tested and will need to step up big to compete against Cal. We do not think they can. Cal bounces back with a win and a cover.

On a side note, I am very sorry but I was not able to make Jeff Tedford eat a turd sandwich this week. I am still working on it and if he burns us again he will be forced to eat a turd sandwich and wear a very large anal plug.

tedford-photo.jpg

“Hi my name is Jeff Tedford, I am scratching my head because I have no idea why I let a red shirt freshman ruin our season and ultimately take money out of the pockets of the readers of this fine blog. Runny and Flash are great guys and if I fail this week I will eat that turd sandwich, with an anal plug up my rectum. You can count on it.”

Notre Dame Observation #10: Although we have been bashing the beloved Leprechaun lovers in this post, we must give props where due. The entire staff on campus could not have been more polite. Seriously, it was like we were watching a game in a 5 star restaurant. An usher even gave us a “congrats” on our way out the stadium. They say a team/organization shows its true colors in a defeat. The ND staff was all class. Thanks for the hospitality.

We love the banter that has been increasing on our blog. Feel free to post your picks or ask us for our advice. We check this regularly and will post as soon as we can. Also, our blog reader base has been steadily increasing and we want to hear what you have to say about us… good or bad. Leave us a comment, leave us your picks, ask us questions….we are here for you and here for you to make money!!!

We love our picks like a fat kid loves cake!!!!

Flash Flash and Runny

October 25, 2007 Posted by | Arizona State, BCS, Beavers, Betting, Big East, Big Ten, Bulldogs, California, Charlie Weis, Colorado Buffaloes, Commodores, cyclones, Demon Deacons, ESPN, Fighting Irish, Florida, Florida Gators, Football, Gambling, Gamecock, Georgia Bulldogs, Golden Bears, Huskies, Indiana Hoosiers, Iowa State, Iowa State Cyclones, Irish, Jeff Tedford, Kansas Jayhawks, Mark Mangino, Miami Ohio, Missouri, NC State, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon State, Pac-10, Redhawks, SEC, Sooners, South Bend, South Carolina Gamecocks, Sports, Stanford, Stanford Cardinals, Sun Devils, Tar Heels, Texas A&M, Tigers, UVA, Vanderbilt, Virginia Cavaliers, Wake Forest, Washington Huskies, Winning Picks, Wisconsin Badgers, Wolfpack | 11 Comments

NCAA Football Week 8 Picks: 9 Winning Picks and a Trip To See TD Jesus

We were 4-2 last week but missed our Brinks Truck bet so the Brinks Truck is in the shop this weekend getting tuned up. What we do have is 9 great picks for you this weekend. Because we are always up front and honest…we are 24-18 on the season, 3-3 for Brinks Truck bets and we are up 6 units. The 6 units is a joke and we plan on turning that around ASAP.

For our nine picks this week, we are going to break them down into 4 betting categories. First up is the ” Clean Sweep”. The clean sweep means a team meets our statistical betting criteria. The public data we share with you for the clean sweep is the following:

Offensive rushing yards per game
Offensive 3rd down efficiency
Defensive rushing yards given up per game
Defensive 3rd down efficiency
Turnover ratio

When a team meets these 5 figures they win more times than not because they control the clock, can move the ball, stop opponents from controlling the clock, stop opponents from moving up and down the field and do not turn the ball over.

The Clean Sweep Games of the Week:

1) Cincy @ Pitt (plus 9.5) – Cincy is going to be very pissed off following their loss to Louisville and PITT just can not get anything going. Even Navy passed all over them last week. Yes Navy passed the ball successfully on PITT. In what could be a turn of events that actually helps PITT, their coach, Dave Wannstedt, tore his achilles tendon and will probable coach the game from the press box. We saw what good old Dave was able to do against Navy and that was coach his team out of a win. Being in the press box and away from the players and flow of the game might help PITT. However, please be serious here, Cincinnati is ninth in the country in scoring average at 40.6 points per game, while Pitt has given up an average of 42.0 points in its last three contests. This game will be ugly. Ride Cincy and their 5 and 1 record against the spread. Easy cash in this one.

2) Miss St. @ West Virginia (minus 24) – Plain and simple stats for this one. Miss. St. can not stop the run and turns the ball over. West Virginia should have no problem taking control of this game. West Virginia is coming off a bye and Pat White should have had plenty of time to get healthy. Last year and on the road, West Virginia won 42-14. We expect this game to be even more ugly. Mountaineers mount the boys from Mississipp and make em squeal like pigs.

3) Kansas @ Colorado (plus 3.5) – Kansas is becoming one of our favorite teams and is undefeated against the spread at 5 and 0. Last year Kansas won 20-15 and this year’s team is a lot better. Colorado just lost 47-20 to the same Kansas State team Kansas beat. This spread should really be over 10. Jayhawks splatter their poo all over the Buffs.

4) Texas @ Baylor (plus 25) – We saw what Kansas could do against Baylor, a 58-10 win and Texas should whoop them even worse. Baylor might be competitive against the cellar dwellers like Notre Dame but they will be hooked by the Horns. Texas in a blowout.

5) Oregon @ Washington (plus 11.5) – Oregon is really hot. We see this as a parallel to the USC team that lost to CAL in 3-OT a few years back. After that loss the Trojans went on a tear, ultimately destroying Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Well this Oregon team, after suffering a disappointing loss to Cal is on fire after destroying Wash. St. 53-7 last week. Oregon is probably the most explosive team in the Pac-10 and will continue to prove it this week. Ducks blow out Washington by more than 20.

6) Oklahoma @ Iowa St. (plus 29.5) – Iowa St. is the Sooners’ red headed step child. All time they are 66-5-2 in the series. What a freakin joke. So the question is not will Oklahoma win but by how much. The Cyclones lost to Texas 56-3 last week and we expect a similar score. Easy win for the Sooners.

The “Wash” Game of the week

Sometimes we look at a game and do not see one clear winner that stands out meaning the teams are essentially even. We have one such game this weekend.

7) Tennessee @ Alabama (pick em) – Tennessee rushes for 19 more yards a game and the teams are equal in offensive 3rd down conversions. On defense, Alabama is a little better against the run and the teams are even in third down conversion percentage. Turnover ratio favors Alabama 6 to 1 and we think this will be the difference. This game dropped to pick em and we love not having to worry about points, picking the home team and the team that turns the ball over less. Roll Tide Roll. Alabama wins this game.

The SEC Road Cover of the Week

8) Auburn @ LSU (minus 10.5) – The SEC has had some great games the last few weeks and the number one lesson to learn is to not bet on the favorite in the higher spread games. Auburn’s defense proved they can play with the Florida offense and will have no problem with the LSU offense. We do not think Auburn wins but we know they will keep it closer than 10.5 points. Against ranked teams Auburn keeps it close; 3 points with South Florida, 3 points with Florida, 2 points with Arkansas. Take Auburn and the points and watch as they strike fear into another SEC team.

The Fever Game

9) Central Michigan @ Clemson (minus 16.5) – Dancin, Dancin, YEAH!!!! We got the fever for LaFevour once again. Central Michigan has been a cover machine the last three weeks and they covered easily. Our boy Dan LaFevour has the Chippewas playing aggressive football and we think they can keep it close with Clemson and certainly closer than the 16.5 points they are getting. Look at these numbers, this game is too easy: Chippewas are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in October. Chippewas are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Chippewas are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Chippewas are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win. Chippewas are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. And then we get to look at Clemson: Tigers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on grass. Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Tigers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. Tigers are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.

If these numbers do not convince you to get the Fever for LaFevour than you are in the wrong business. Stop betting, send us your money and in return we will send you a jar of tiddly winks.

On a side note, we both go to the USC/Notre Dame game in South Bend every two years and this weekend will be no different. We normally would put out a prediction on this game but Runny wants to bet USC cause he hates ND and Flash wants to bet ND cause USC has been dog vomint for three weeks in a row. We both think USC wins easily and the Trojans defenders might actually physically kill a Notre Dame player because their offense is so terrible. Notre Dame would be better off playing 11 of those little leprechauns from the Lucky Charms commercial cause USC is going to physically dominate them. Also, if you see two drunk USC clowns in the Notre Dame alumni tent feel free to say hello. We will be the ones double fisting bloodies and beers and heckling the demented leprechaun lovers. How in the hell can BC be favored by 13.5 points in South Bend and the Trojans opened at 20.5 points. At least they dropped down to 18 and continue to go down but give me a freakin break. If Vegas were legit at setting lines this game would have an 8-10 point spread.

*****10/19/2007***** We needed to post this story about USC…Trojans endure harrowing flight

This is big news. There is one other game we can remember this year where this happened and it was when Southern Miss travelled to Boise St and got blown out 38-16 and did not cover the 10.5 point spread. Please remember that these guys are kids and they just were on a plane where they thought they were going to die. It is not surprising that I have seen some “experts” actually pick ND for an outright win now after this news was announced. We still think USC wins but Flash thinks this is even more reason why ND will cover. Runny absolutely refuses to give ND any credit and still is on the USC to cover bandwagon. We are here to share info and we feel like this is important betting information that needs to spread.

We hope you enjoy the picks. We have been winners for 6 of the 7 weeks of the NCAA season and we love our picks this week. If you want any picks from us or reasons why we did not bet a game let us know. Simply post a comment and we will get back to you within a couple of hours. Our money is always where our mouth is and that means we share the fruits of our labor with you,our readers.

Flash Flash and Runny

October 18, 2007 Posted by | Alabama Tide, Auburn Tigers, Baylor Bears, BCS, Bearcats, Bulldogs, Central Michigan, Chippewas, Clemson, Colorado Buffaloes, Crimson Tide, cyclones, Fighting Irish, Iowa State, Irish, Kansas Jayhawks, Les Miles, LSU, LSU Tigers, Mississippi State, Mountaineers, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon Ducks, Pittsburgh Panthers, Sooners, Tennessee, Texas Longhorns, Tigers, USC, USC Trojans, Volunteers, Washington Huskies, West Virginia | 18 Comments

Week 7 NCAA Football Locks and the Funniest Joke of the Year: Notre Dame Surrendering Irish

“I love the smell of napalm in the morning”…Not so much but our picks last week smelled worse than napalm, they smelled like dog shit!!!. Our picks were putrid last week and gave us our first losing picking segment on the season (NCAA and NFL). Here is where we stand…

On the season NCAA picks are 20-16, our Brinks truck bets (bet 5 times your normal betting unit) are 3-2 and we are up 8 units on the season. Still profitable and only one down week in 6 weeks. This is a marathon and not a sprint and the entire goal of the season is to build a big enough bankroll to crush the bowl season and that is where the BIG MONEY is!!!! We were 19-4 last year during the bowl season and that record is what prompted us to get this blog up and running so we can prove to you how we are successful and that we can consistently make you money.

As always… our picks are below and our money is where our mouth is.

Because Week 6 was shitty we are giving you 6 great picks this time around. Just kidding this is actually how the numbers worked out this week.

Saturday, October 13, 2007

THE BRINKS TRUCK BET OF THE CENTURY. Yes you heard that right. We love our first pick of the week and will be betting 5 times our normal amount.

1) Boston College (-13.5) @ Notre Dame – This game is a joke and the Boston College bettors will get the benefit of the irrational leprechaun lovers first win last week. Lets take a look at what really happened last week…UCLA had 7 turnovers, outgained ND 2-1 on offense, held ND to under 100 yards passing and 50 yards rushing, had 11 penalties, gave up a TD to the ND defense, had to play a red shirt freshman at QB and the list goes on and on. What basically happened is every single thing that could go wrong for UCLA did and now YOU the bettor gets to take advantage of it. America is a beautiful thing isn’t it. UCLA was a 21 point favorite at home against Notre Dame and now Boston College, THE 4TH (I mean $$$th) rated team in the country is only a 13.5 favorite at Notre Dame…This has to be a joke. Notre Dame already has shown that they can not compete against athletic teams and Boston College can run, pass and play defense. BC’s defense is excellent against the run and I love any time a defense can force ND to pass. We have seen that game plan before…..drop back for a pass…oh oh oh… sacked by 5 defenders. This is a clean sweep game, which means Boston College is more efficient on offense, more efficient on defense and has a better turnover ratio on the season. The historians are going to remember all the classic BC/ND matchups that ended with game winning field goals…We could give a shit!!! We know this is a BC team that has a swagger that is gonna go into South Bend and beat some ass. Boston College wins this in a blowout!!!!! We got on this game earlier in the week and do have it a -13.5 but we would still recommend this up to -20.

2) Virginia Tech (-13.5) @ Duke – At first glance this is a bit scary because Duke is one of the best teams against the spread in the country at 5-1 and Va. Tech is only 1-4. Well the game stats do not lie. Virginia Tech gives us another clean sweep matchup…Va. Tech rushes for more yards a game, converts more 3rd downs on offense, its defense gives up less rushing yards a game than Duke and lets opposing offenses convert less third downs and is better in the turnover margin game. Here are some other historical numbers to back up our “clean sweep” stat approach…Hokies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater. Hokies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Hokies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games in October. Hokies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite. Hokies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games. Hokies are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Hokies are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 conference games. Hokies are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games following a ATS win. Some reasons we do not like the Dukies include: Blue Devils are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in October. Blue Devils are 10-26 ATS in their last 36 home games. Blue Devils are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog. Blue Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater. Blue Devils are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Basically as we see it….Va. Tech is hot after getting blown out by LSU. They destroyed Clemson on the road last week and Clemson is much better than Duke and Death Valley is 1 million times more difficult to play in then Wallace Wade Football Stadium. Lets see…Wallace Wade versus Death Valley. Unless the nerdy Duke students are going to figure out how to give the entire Hokie roster diarrhea before the game this line is a joke. Actually Va. Tech would still cover this with pants full of crap. Take Va. Tech and cash!!!!

3) Drum roll please………..We are back with our favorite team from last year!!!!We’ve got the Fever, the Fever, the Fever for LeFevour. He is back!!!! Army @ Central Michigan (-13.5) – Did you know what team was best against the spread last season…..Central Michigan. Bet you did not get that one. Now that we are 6 games into the season and Central Michigan has played some nasty road games against the likes of Purdue and Kansas and now is into the middle of the season and is no longer thinking, damn it we lost Joe Staley to the NFL, this team is on a mini roll. Central Michigan is hot after getting embarassed by North Dakota St. at home. They are 2-0 ATS in their last two and won easily at home against Northern Illinois and at Ball State and they are putting up points in bunches. Looking closer, Central Michigan is a another clean sweep stat team this week. They dominate Army across the board. Some trends of importance: Army Black Knights are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. Black Knights are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on Turf. Black Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Black Knights are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October. Central Michigan Chippewas are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games in October. Chippewas are 11-0-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. Chippewas are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite. Chippewas are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games on Turf. Chippewas are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite. Chippewas are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win. Chippewas are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall.

We are happy to be placing money in the hands of our favorite QB. Catch the fever for LeFevour and take Central Michigan to the bank!!!!

4) Baylor @ Kansas (-26) – Another clean sweep team. Kansas dominates Baylor across the board and is 4 and 0 against the spread this season. I do not even have anything good to write about Baylor potentially pulling something here. Check this out: Bears are 18-39 ATS in their last 57 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. Bears are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a double-digit loss at home. Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bears are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Bears are 1-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. And the the 0 fers: Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October. Bears are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 conference games. Bears are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.

So in other words….Baylor is flat out terrible and they are playing on the road against Kansas team that loves to throw up points. Now don’t get me wrong, Baylor is not Notre Dame terrible. Ha ha. I love a season where ND can be the brunt of every joke. This is the first Kansas team that has won at Kansas St. since 1989. This Kansas team has some toughness and should not be taken lightly. Take Kansas and don’t look back!!!

5) Missouri (+10.5) @ Oklahoma – We can not wait to watch this game. A Missouri team rolls into Oklahoma with an undefeated record and an undefeated record against the spread at 4 and 0. One of the last remaining undefeated teams against the spread in the nation. This is an interesting matchup. Both teams run the ball well but Missouri has a significant advantage moving the chains and converting third downs 59% versus 46.7% for Oklahoma. On the defensive side of the ball and this will come as no surprise, Oklahoma has a great run defense and holds opponents to 25.5% third down conversion ratio versus 37.2% for Missouri. The turnover ratio is plus 5 for Missouri and plus 4 for Oklahoma. So it comes down to the fact that there is no real clear favorite in this game and we have to wonder if playing at Oklahoma is a 10.5 point advantage. We do not think so!!! We can spit out positive against the spread stats for both teams but we are only going to focus on one….In heads up play, the underdog is 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 meetings. Both teams have banged up RBs so then what do you look to…. you look at QB. Leadership at QB clearly goes to Missouri’s Chase Daniel. Sam Bradford is good but he is only in his first year and Daniel is a veteran and that is huge in games like this. We love getting this many points betting on Missouri and would not be surprised if Missouri hands the Sooners their second loss of the year.

6) Oregon St. @ Cal (-14) – This game is almost a clean sweep game. Somehow Oregon St. has a great rushing defense but we think this number is an anomaly and other than that Cal blows them out of the water. This Cal team is hot and really looked impressive at Oregon two weeks ago. On the flip side, Oregon St. just can not get things going and really ends up beating themselves with a minus 9 turnover ratio, including 23 turnovers on offense. The against the spread numbers do not really support Cal in this one but we think this is a different Cal team. Cal’s young defense causes turnovers, they run the ball extremely well and have playmakers on both sides of the ball and they are battle tested against ranked teams on the road. Taking care of an underperforming Oregon St. team at home will not be a challenge. If Cal screws us again like they did in the Colorado St. game, we are going to personally serve Jeff Tedford a giant turd sandwich. Take Cal, even if they lose we will videotape Tedford eating his turd sandwich and that will be worth it.

Good luck this week. We apologize for our lackluster 1-2 performance during week 6 but we will be back and we will be back this week. RPJ’s system is battle tested and we will prove to you that we are long term winners. “Start living the life, bet like you mean it, make a boat load of cash and deliver a strong pimp hand.”

Flash and Runny

October 11, 2007 Posted by | Army, Baylor Bears, Bears, Beavers, Black Knights, Blue Devils, Boston College, California, Central Michigan, Chippewas, Clemson, Dan LaFevour, Duke, Eagles, Fighting Irish, Football, Gambling, Golden Bears, Hokies, Irish, Jeff Tedford, Kansas Jayhawks, Missouri, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Notre Dame, Oregon State, Pac-10, Sooners, Tigers, UCLA, Vegas, Virginia Tech, Winning Picks | 1 Comment

Week 5 NCAA Football Picks: 99 problems but picking winners ain’t one!!!

Here we go again for week 5. We are 15-10, have never had a losing week this season and are up 13 units in total when you count our Brinks truck bets (betting 5 times your normal amount). We do not have a Brinks truck bet for you this week but we do have 8 solid picks. We want to expand a little bit on some of the stats we use before we get into the nitty gritty. We look at rushing yards per game on offense and defense, third down conversion rate on offense and defense and turnover ratio. Why these stats…it is simple!!! I do not need to explain turnovers. Turnovers simply kill a team. As far as rushing and third down conversion, this is simply a factor of game control and game domination. If a team can rush more and convert more third down than its opponents while committing less turnovers; they are going to win plain and simple, control the clock and wear down opposing defenses. Just sharing some of our little tricks. And now for the picks:

Saturday, September 29, 2007

1) Akron Zips at UCONN (-15) – Here are the numbers….UCONN rushes for almost 60 yards a game more that Akron and converts 39.1% of their first down conversions while Akron only converts 25.4%. On defense, Akron gives up 206.8 rushing yards a game and lets its opposition convert 41.9% of its third down conversion chances while UCONN only gives up 83.8 yards a game rushing lets its opponents convert 23.6% of third down conversions. Last but not least, UCONN has a ball hawking defense and is plus 9 in the turnover ratio this season. Here are some against the spread (ATS) numbers…Huskies are 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 non-conference games. Huskies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Huskies are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games. Akron is 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Zips are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Zips are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Zips are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Go with UCONN all the way; if anything, bet against a team named The Zips. Idiotic mascot name.

2) Notre Dame at Purdue (-22) – I hope this game really does not need any explaining. We told you last week how bad Notre Dame is and guess what they are still terrible. They can’t rush, can’t stop the run, can’t convert third down conversions, open up the flood gates and let teams convert third downs and they are minus 2 in the turnover ratio game. I could run down how bad Notre Dame is against the spread in every situation but it is too long to fit in this blog. Purdue has a great offense and is playing at home. Although Purdue is 4-10 ATS in their last 10 home games, the Boilermakers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater and we think this is the stat that is more telling especially when you couple it with the following: Boilermakers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Boilermakers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Boilermakers are 6-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Boilermakers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Purdue will kick the lucky charms out of the funny little green leprechauns this weekend. Purdue all the way!!!

3) Florida Atlantic Owls @ Kentucky (-22) – Kentucky is on a roll. They more than double Fl. Atlantic’s rushing output per game 227.2 versus 111.2 and they are far more efficient converting third downs. On the defensive side, Fl. Atlantic gives up more yards rushing than they themselves rush for and allow teams to convert 47.4% of their third down conversions. The one place where Fl. Atlantic has the edge is that they are plus 13 in the turnover ratio margin versus Kentucky’s plus 6. Some other tidbits: Wildcats are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on Grass. Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Wildcats are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games in September. Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. As far as the Owls go: Owls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Owls are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Owls are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. Owls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. We do not think this will be close and do not fear the 22 points you have to give. Kentucky rolls in this one.

4) Syracuse at Miami-Ohio (+1.5) – The Cuse showed up huge in their road win at Louisville and on paper they really are not as bad as the media experts want you to believe especially compared to Miami-Ohio. The Cuse is more efficient on offense converting third downs, gives up less rushing yards on defense and by some bizarre miracle they are actually plus 3 in the turnover ratio while Miami-Ohio is minus 4. Orange are 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. MAC. Orange are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in September. Orange are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. Redhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big East. Redhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September. Redhawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Cuse will ride the momentum and put the Orange squeeze on Miami-Ohio and win outright. Go Cuse!!!

5) Clemson @ Georgia Tech (+3) – Georgia Tech is coming off a disappointing road loss and is very banged up. Injuries have played a big factor in the team’s recent downturn. Tailback Tashard Choice, who leads the team with 356 net rushing yards and is second with four touchdowns, played only two possessions last week after attempting to return from a hamstring injury. Choice, safety Djay Jones, linebacker Shane Bowen and offensive tackle Jacob Lonowski are questionable due to injuries, while starting fullback Mike Cox and receiver James Jones missed portions of last week’s game. On the other side of the ball Clemson’s two headed running back monster keeps racking up yards. These teams rush for a very similar amount but the difference is in their offense’s efficiency. Clemson converts 42% of their third down conversions and Georgia Tech only converts 20.8%. This spread is only three and we think Georgia Tech is too banged up to compete. Clemson wins easily and covers.

6) Auburn @ Florida (-18) – This is an interesting game. Auburn started the season in the top 25 and was supposed to be one of the best teams in the SEC. Florida has been crushing people and faced a scare against Ole Miss last week. We are going off the cuff with this pick because on paper, using the stats I mentioned all the way through this post, this looks like an easy walk for Florida. Florida rushes for more yards and is more efficient on offense and stops the run better than Auburn and stops teams on third down tries more often and they are plus three in the turnover margin versus Auburn’s minus 3. They ATS numbers tell a different story though….Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Tigers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Gators are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Gators are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 conference games. Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. The Florida number that really jumps out at us is that they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 ATS. This is telling that they play SEC teams close. All teams will be gunning for the defending champ. This is why USC is never good against the spread because teams bring the kitchen sick, the toilet, the washing machine, etc… when they face elite squads. Auburn has the talent to match Florida on defense, if not be better, and we think this game will be far closer than the 18 point spread. Take Auburn on the road to cover, who knows they might even win.

7 ) Ohio St. @ Minnesota (+23.5) – Ohio St. is on a big roll. The stats you need to know here are that Minnesota can not stop anybody on defense and they are minus 12 in the turnover ratio, one of the worst in the country. Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on Turf. Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September. Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite. Buckeyes are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 conference games. Buckeyes are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win. Buckeyes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Golden Gophers are 3-7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Golden Gophers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater. Golden Gophers are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Golden Gophers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Ohio St. rolls easily here and covers with no problem.

8 ) Cincinnati @ San Diego St. Aztecs (+15) – We love the Bearcats. They have caused 19 turnovers on the season and are flat out nasty on defense. The Aztecs can not stop the run and Cincy will have a field day. Throw in the fact that the Aztecs are a passing team and we envision this turning into turnover city. Just ask Oregon St. what can happen when you get behind and need to pass against these guys. Bearcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Bearcats are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on Grass. Bearcats are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win. Bearcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Bearcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Aztecs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Aztecs are 4-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Aztecs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. Aztecs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog. The Bearcats will maul the Aztecs and cover this one easily. We were surprised the spread was not 21 points or more.

Please feel free to post your own picks or to ask us to pick games. We have tons of stats and performed a ridiculous amount of resaearch this week. We always put our money where our mouth is and we are enjoying a great year. Good luck and may Notre Dame continue to lead the nation in offensive ineptitude!!

Flash Flash and Runny

September 27, 2007 Posted by | Akron Zips, Auburn Tigers, BCS, Bearcats, Betting, Big East, Big Ten, Boilermakers, Buckeyes, Clemson, ESPN, Fighting Irish, Florida, Florida Atlantic, Florida Gators, Football, Gambling, Georgia Tech, Golden Gophers, Huskies, Irish, Kentucky, Kentucky Wildcats, Maryland, Miami Ohio, Minnesota, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Orangemen, Owls, Pac-10, Purdue, Rutgers, San Diego St., SEC, Syracuse, Terrapins, Uconn, Wildcats, Yellow Jackets | 1 Comment