RPJ Betting Syndicate

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2007-2008 NCAA Football Bowl Preview: RPJ Syndicate’s Guide to Making Money

We concluded the NCAA Football regular season with a record of 59-54. We were 6-4 on Eva Mendes bets, which were our super bets meaning we bet 5 times our normal unit. This approach led us to win 13 units on the season. Take away the Vig (about 10%) and we are working with with just under 12 units….11.7 to be exact. We would have liked to win more but we won and that is a lot better than other so called “experts can say”.

The reason we started our blog is because we went 19-4 during last season’s Bowl Season. We crushed it!!!! Combining our record with an article in the Wall Street Journal about a sports picker out in Cal-Berkely who was giving away his picks for free and winning at a nice rate. Well this Cal-Berkeley guy made his picks for pay when he had enough of a fan base and he was making $10k a month in his first few months on top of his gambling money. We know our system and our picking are world class and we are revealing all of our picks to you for free. You the reader are reaping the benefits of a free winning system. The point of gambling is not to have more fun while watching games…the point is to make cold hard cash and when you follow us, as we proved during this season, you make cash!!!

Now the point of this Bowl season is to take your/our 11.7 units and turn that into a lot more. We are going to give you specific reasons why we are picking a game and sometimes we might just tell you to pick a game just like we did with our pick of PITT to cover against West Virginia for their December 1 game. Our betting system is based on a trial and tested system and we always put our money where our mouth is with no exceptions.

For this bowl season we are going to set up a system for you where you bet 1,2,3,4,5 and the Super Bet for as many betting units as you are willing to risk. The Super Bet is our 99.99999% lock!! These bets are called:

The Super Bet = The Keyra Shake that Money Maker bet – These will be our super lock bets. The bets we are taking out second mortgages, bank loans, hitting up friends and relatives…you get the picture. Bet as much as you can stomach bets.

5 Unit Bet = The Eva Mendes Bet – We love us some Eva and think she is a Goddess. Since we renamed the Brinks truck bet the Eva Mendes we went 3-1 with it.

4 Unit Bet = The Shakira Hips Don’t Lie bet- We love us some Shakira and her hip shaking bits. In honor of this Columbian love ma-cheen, we named one of our bets after her. For the Shakira bets, place 4 times your typical unit of bet.

3 Unit Bet = The Dahm Triplets bet-A lot of great things come in threes. The Dahm Triplets are no exception. Indeed, they are Dahm hot!! For these bets, bet 3 times your typical betting unit… one for each one of these lovely ladies. Be sure to send the vig to their parents as thank you for gracing us with them. The world is definitely 3 times better since they were delivered from the heavens.

2 Unit Bet = The Derek Jeter Bet – In honor of one of our favorite athletes, the 2 unit bet will be a tribute to all of the women Derek Jeter has allegedly slept with including, Jessica Biel, Scarlett Johanson, Mariah Carey, Anna Kournikouva, Miss Universes, models, etc…. We have a ton of chicks to choose for this bet in honor of our man Derek Jeter.

1 Unit Bet = The Heidi Klum bet. You know she is hot but her judgement must be suspect cause she married one of the ugliest human beings outside of Scottie Pippen, Sam Cassell and Charlie Weis (of course we took a dig at Notre Dame in this blog). We love the Heidi Klum but something is off with her judgement so we are only comfortable making her a a one unit bet.

Below is the schedule for all bowl games this season. We are going to pick as many games as our system spits out. Do not expect us to pick every game but we will have action on most of them. We will probably post our picks on this blog 1-2 days before each bowl. Please feel free to ask us any questions or post comments on this blog. Our email is rpjsyndicate@gmail.com.

Sincerely,

Flash Flash and Runny

2007-08 College Football Bowl Schedule

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia
Utah (-9) vs. Navy
Dec. 20, 9 p.m.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Memphis (+2) vs. Florida Atlantic
Dec. 21, 8 p.m.

Papajohns.com Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Cincinnati (-11)
Dec. 22, 1 p.m.

New Mexico Bowl
Nevada vs. New Mexico (-3)
Dec. 22, 4:30 p.m.

Pioneer Las Vegas
UCLA vs. BYU (-5.5)
Dec. 22, 8 p.m.

Sheraton Hawaii
Boise State (-10.5) vs. East Carolina
Dec. 23, 8 p.m.

Motor City
Purdue (-9.5) vs. Central Michigan
Dec. 26, 7:30 p.m.

Pacific Life Holiday
Arizona State (+1.5) vs. Texas
Dec. 27, 8 p.m.

Champs Sports
Boston College (-3) vs. Michigan State
Dec. 28, 5 p.m.

Texas
TCU vs. Houston (+3.5)
Dec. 28, 8 p.m.

Emerald
Maryland vs. Oregon State (-4.5)
Dec. 28, 8:30 p.m.

Meineke Car Care
UConn vs. Wake Forest (-3.5)
Dec. 29, 1 p.m.

AutoZone Liberty
UCF vs. Mississippi State (+3)
Dec. 29, 4:30 p.m.

Valero Alamo
Penn State vs. Texas A and M (+5.5)
Dec. 29, 8 p.m.

PetroSun Independence
Alabama (-3.5) vs. Colorado
Dec. 30, 8 p.m.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces
California (-4) vs. Air Force
Dec. 31, 12:30 p.m.

Roady’s Humanitarian
Georgia Tech (-4.5) vs. Fresno State
Dec. 31, 2 p.m.

Brut Sun
South Florida (-6.5) vs. Oregon
Dec. 31, 2 p.m.

Gaylord Hotels Music City
Kentucky (-1) vs. Florida State
Dec. 31, 4 p.m.

Insight
Indiana vs. Oklahoma State (-4.5)
Dec. 31, 6 p.m.

Chick-fil-A
Clemson (-2.5) vs. Auburn
Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m.

Outback
Wisconsin vs. Tennessee (-3.5)
Jan. 1, 2008, 11 a.m.

AT and T Cotton
Missouri (-3.5) vs. Arkansas
Jan. 1, 2008, 11:30 a.m.

Gator
Texas Tech vs. Virginia (+5.5)
Jan. 1, 2008, 1 p.m.

Capital One
Michigan vs. Florida (-10.5)
Jan. 1, 2008, 1 p.m.

Rose Bowl presented by Citi
Illinois vs. USC (-13.5)
Jan. 1, 2008, 4:30 p.m.

Allstate Sugar
Hawaii vs. Georgia (-9.5)
Jan. 1, 2008, 8:30 p.m.

Tostitos Fiesta
Oklahoma (-6.5) vs. West Virginia
Jan. 2, 2008, 8 p.m.

FedEx Orange
Virginia Tech (-3) vs. Kansas
Jan. 3, 2008, 8 p.m.

International
Rutgers (-9.5) vs. Ball State
Jan. 5, 2008, Noon

GMAC
Bowling Green vs. Tulsa (-4)
Jan. 6, 2008, 8 p.m.

Allstate BCS Championship Game
LSU (-6) vs. Ohio State
Jan. 7, 2008, 8 p.m.

December 4, 2007 Posted by | Air Force Falcons, Alabama Tide, Arizona State, Arkansas Razorbacks, Auburn Tigers, Ball State Cardinals, BCS, Big East, Big Ten, Boise State Broncos, Boston College, Bowling Green, BYU Cougars, California, Central Florida, Central Michigan, Charlie Weis, Clemson, Clemson Tigers, Colorado Buffaloes, Dahm Triplets, Derek Jeter, East Carolina, East Carolina Pirates, Eva Mendes, Florida, Florida Atlantic, Florida Gators, Florida State Seminoles, Free NCAA picks, Fresno State, Gambling, Georgia Bulldogs, Georgia Tech, Hawaii Rainbows, Heidi Klum, Houston, Illinois, Indiana Hoosiers, Kansas Jayhawks, Kentucky, Kentucky Wildcats, Keyra Augustina, LSU, LSU Tigers, Maryland, Memphis, Michigan, Michigan State, Midshipmen, Mississippi State, Missouri, Navy, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Nevada, New Mexico, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Oregon Ducks, Oregon State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, South Florida, Southern Miss, TCU, Tenn, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas Longhorns, Texas Tech, Trojans, Tulsa, UCLA, Uconn, USC, USC Trojans, Utah, UVA, VaTech, Virginia Cavaliers, Virginia Tech, Virginia Tech Hokies, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Winning Picks, Wisconsin Badgers | Leave a comment

NCAA Football Week 11 Picks: Chicks and Hot Picks or Hot Chicks and Picks? Who Cares, Both are Better than Notre Dame!!!

Right now we are 39-35 on the season, 3-3 in Brinks truck bets (5 times your normal betting unit and up 4 units on the season. West Virginia and BYU gave us the Thursday night screw job special. Heading into this weekend we have 8 more picks for you and we are going to reveal these in true celebrity fashion:

The Britney Spears Train Wreck Games – I am hoping you can figure out the reason for our picks in the following two games based on the two pictures below:

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Lets get a close up on that:

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Yup that is Brit up close and personal and if you look above her beaver you can see her C-section scar….YUMMY!!!!! She even grosses Paris Hilton out. Now that says a lot!! Our recommendation to Paris is to have her car seats thoroughly scrubbed. The following two picks are in true train wreck fashion, just like our pal Britney; we have puss shots, C-section scars, drugs, alcohol, Federline….Michael Jackson and OJ get to keep their kids but Brit does not. What the heck did she do to lose child privileges. She defines Train Wreck!!! Now for the games:

Train Wreck Game 1 = Texas A and M @ Missouri (-19) – We love Missouri this year, 7 and 1 against the spread (ATS) and they show a tendency to show no mercy and pour on the points. So why is this a train wreck game….it is all on Franchione, the A and M coach. He was selling insider team news to boosters for $1,200 subscripions and got caught and now he is a distraction to the university and his team. In addition, the Aggies are simply soft. Look at the Aggies road games this year…Lost at Miami 34-17, lost at Texas Tech 35-7, lost at Oklahoma 42-14. Somehow they did manage to beat Nebraska 36-14 on the road but we know Nebraska is the second worse team in the country to Notre Dame so we discount that one. Now we hear that Franchione is in buyout talks with the university and Jeff Tedford is rumoured to be in line to take over for him. There is just too much BS going on with A and M right now and we think they are going to get blown out. Just to kick them while they are down:

Texas A and M
Aggies are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a road underdog.
Aggies are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Aggies are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.

We can rattle of 10 ATS numbers for why Missouri beats their ass but we do not think it is necessary. Missouri leaves C-section scars all over the Aggies, wins and covers.

Train Wreck Game 2 = USC @ California (+4) – Our good friend Jeff Tedford has found a way back into our hearts, blog and picks. As you read above, Tedford is rumoured to be inline for the Texas A and M job and that is just what we wanted to hear…Distraction city for the Cal Bears this week. Cal is a mess and has not covered in 4 games; losing outright in three of them. They barely beat Washington State at home last week. We despise Jeff Tedford and believe he has lost control of this team. He has perhaps the most weapons on offense of any school in the country and he is not using them. How is it that D. Jackson does not even lead the Bears in receptions? Way to promote your Heisman candidate coach! In addition, USC owns Nate Longshore and causes fits for Tedford’s offense. With the E-Freak coming off a 3.5 sack game against Oregon State and the USC defense racking up 9 sacks; we think Longshore will be running for his life and making very bad decisions. Some ATS numbers for you:

Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

USC
Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Trojans are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Trojans are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games in November.

California
Golden Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Golden Bears are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
Golden Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
Golden Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Golden Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

USC is back on the scene, easy win and cover for the Trojans!!!

Lauren Conrad vs. Heidi Montag Smack Down Games – These two crazy bitches hate each other and love having their catty little fights on The Hills MTV show.

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Basically these two feud constantly and bash each other on the show and in the media so what better games to compare them to than to two SEC battles.

Game 3 = Arkansas @ Tennessee (pick em) = We love this matchup and as a real surprise, Arkansas is a clean sweep from a stats view point. Tennessee does not have a great run defense and The Razorbacks dynamic duo is coming off a game where they ran for 487 yards combined. In addition, the Razorbacks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. One thing to think about is that Tennessee is undefeated at home this season and this is a pick em game. We think there is no time like the present for a Vols loss. Here are some ATS numbers for you:

Arkansas
Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Razorbacks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
Razorbacks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.

Tennessee
Volunteers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games in November.

Take Arkansas for the win in this game!!! This is also the Mrs. Frash Flash pick of the week. She is 1-1 on the season and she likes Arkansas to win this week because crazy girls go to Tennessee. We do not know what that means but that is her logic.

Game 4 = Auburn @ Georgia (+2) – We love seeing Auburn as the road dog in an SEC game. The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Georgia and the Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Auburn has a nasty defense and will be able to take advantage of Georgia’s youth on the offensive line and in the backfield. We love Auburn’s ATS numbers this week and they come across as one of the strongest opportunities we have had in awhile:

Auburn
Tigers are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.

Georgia
Bulldogs are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss.
Bulldogs are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite.
Bulldogs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Bulldogs are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.
Bulldogs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Georgia is just not that impressive to us and we love whenever you can give points to Auburn on the road. Take Auburn for the cover and do not be surprised if they win.

Rosie O’Donnell Fat Slobby Pig Game – Rosie O’Donnell is a big fat nasty pig of a woman who is opinionated and loud and really does not have anything meaningful to say. Sound familiar to you, still guessing, thinking….Notre Dame Fans are loud, obnoxious, think they have a good coach, top recruiting classes, are always the team to beat, etc….Excuses, excuses, excuses!!!

fat-rosie.jpg

Game 5 = Air Force @ Notre Dame (+3.5) – Do we really need to talk about this game? Just bet against Notre Dame and its 119th rated offense every single week. We wanted to point out that we are not the only people bashing Notre dame and Charlie Weis…check out a recent Jason Whitlock article: Weis’ NFL experience not helping him now. Also we saw this news and had to let out a chuckle, “Freshman Jimmy Clausen will start at quarterback for the Irish against Air Force on Saturday, Notre Dame announced Wednesday. Irish coach Charlie Weis did not make himself available for comment but a team spokesman said Weis would address the choice Thursday evening.” We love betting against Claussen’s noodle arm and terrible decision making ability. Some ATS numbers, not like you needed them:

Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Air Force
Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
Falcons are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Notre Dame
Fighting Irish are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.
Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
Fighting Irish are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog.
Fighting Irish are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.
Fighting Irish are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Fighting Irish are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Fighting Irish are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Fighting Irish are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.

Notre Dame can not beat Navy as a favorite and now they are home underdogs to Airforce. What has this world come to? Notre Dame is defeated and Charlie is a technician, not a motivator. The Notre Dame program is in trouble!!! Take Air Force to win and cover with ease!

The Broncos Cheerleaders Game – We were not witty enough to come up with a real game comparison for the following so we decided to show a picture of the hottest Boise State cheerleader. Enjoy!

boise-state.jpg

Game 6 = Boise State @ Utah State (+24.5) – This is not going to be a competitive game and the decision simply comes down to are you comfortable enough in Boise State’s ability to crush an opponent on the road by more than 24 points. Let us try to convince you! Boise State is a clean sweep team this week. They run for more than 85 yards more than Utah St., are far more efficient in converting third downs (51.4% versus 31.0%, give up 80 yards rushing less on defense per game and stop offenses from converting third downs (31.9% versus 46.7%). Can you smell the burning flesh? The Broncos are going to run all over these guys. Also, keep it in the back of your mind that Boise State plays with a lot of pride and is on a roll since losing to Washington. Boise State knows they need to remain undefeated heading into their end of season matchup at Hawaii for the title. Boise State knows what is at stake and will continue their destruction of conference foes. Some ATS numbers:

Boise State
Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Utah State.
Broncos are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Utah State
Aggies are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games in November.
Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Boise State wins in a blow out and covers easily. Do not be afraid of the points!!!

The Keira Knightley Tribute to Pirates Game – You probably can not figure out what we mean by this game and neither can we. This was the toughest game to categorize because zero people are going to watch it cause nobody cares but degenerate gamblers like us. Enjoy the picture and we will get into the game below.

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Game 7 = East Carolina @ Marshall (+7) – This game stacks up as another clean sweep game. East Carolina likes to run (173 YPG) and Marshall can not stop the run (211.4 YPG). Do you need more? How about the turnover ratio…East Carolina plus 14 and Marshall minus 12. We were salivating that this line was under 10 points and do not think this game will be competitive at all. The ATS numbers:

East Carolina
Pirates are 10-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Pirates are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
Pirates are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Pirates are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Pirates are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Pirates are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 conference games.
Pirates are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
Pirates are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win.

Marshall
Thundering Herd are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in November.
Thundering Herd are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Thundering Herd are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog.
Thundering Herd are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Thundering Herd are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Thundering Herd are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

East Carolina wins and covers easily!!!

The Cindy Crawford is Still Hot Game – Yep. Cindy Crawford was born in 1966, meaning she is over 40 and still damn hot. She just keeps on ticking and has been a model since she was 16. It does not matter what decade she works in, if she has kids, Cindy still rises to the top and is hot. Get where we are going with this one.

cindy-pic.jpg

Game 8 = Kansas @ Oklahoma State (+6) – Kansas remains the only unbeaten team in Div-1 against the spread sitting at 8-0 on the season. They also destroyed Nebraska last week. They also have Mangino. People thought the points last week were too high and Kansas blasted right through it. Well this week they face an Oklahoma State team on the road, a team that led Texas 35-17 in the 4th quarter last week and choked. We know a lot of people that are picking Oklahoma for the straight upset and we are not going to get sucked in. Both teams run and are efficient on offense but Kansas has a much better defense and causes a lot more turnovers. One ATS number has us worried and that is the fact that the Jayhawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Something to think about, yes, but something to change bets on, NO!!! The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and Kansas looks nasty ATS-wise:

Kansas
Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.

Oklahoma State
Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
Cowboys are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Cowboys are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.

We think Kansas is hot and will remain hot. Take the Jayhawks for the win and cover!!!!

And there you have it. Hot chicks and hot picks!!! Hope you enjoyed the blog. Please feel free to leave comments or to ask us to pick additional games for you. We are here to be used as a service and a tool to make YOU money!!! Also, sign up for our RSS feeds so you can get our posts in real time and before the lines move on you. If you signed up to our blog you probably would have received Central Michigan at minus 2.5 as a winner and not at minus 3 as a push.

Flash Flash and Runny

November 9, 2007 Posted by | Air Force Falcons, Arkansas Razorbacks, Auburn Tigers, BCS, Betting, Boise State Broncos, Britney Spears, Broncos, Bulldogs, California, Charlie Weis, Cindy Crawford, Dennis Franchione, East Carolina, East Carolina Pirates, ESPN, Falcons, Fighting Irish, Football, Gambling, Georgia Bulldogs, Golden Bears, Heidi Montag, Irish, Jeff Tedford, Jimmy Claussen, Kansas Jayhawks, Keira Knightley, Lauren Conrad, Mark Mangino, Marshall, Marshall Thundering Herd, NCAA, NCAA Picks, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Pac-10, SEC, South Bend, Tenn, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Trojans, USC, USC Trojans, Utah State Aggies, Volunteers, Winning Picks | 1 Comment

NCAA Football Week 9 Picks: The Power of 10 – 10 Winning Picks and 10 Observations from South Bend

“It is not worth an intelligent man’s time to be in the majority. By definition, there are already enough people to do that.” — Godfrey Harold Hardy

Sometimes sports betting becomes one big quandary, picks do not seem logical, spreads do not make sense and you are left scratching your head trying to find a new edge. Our picks are not going to put you in the majority of the betting world and that is a good thing. We have a system and we know it works, no matter how crazy logic fights what we are telling you to do. Do we want it to work better…sure we do but we are picking winners at a 57% right now, we have had one losing week this entire season. So while the other handicappers and sports bettors are trying to find winners we know our big pay day is right around the corner. Stick with us-we do the research so you don’t have to. Our system works and you will continue to see that we are elite. Bring on Bowl Season already!!!!

As always, our disclaimer, we are 29-22 on the season, 3-3 with our Brinks Truck bets (5 times your normal betting unit, and we are up 7 units on the season. Lastly, our money is where our mouth is. We bet every one of these games at the lines we post.

We are not laying down a Brinks truck bet this week. The truck is still in the shop!

The theme of this week is The Power of 10. We have 10 picks for you and we are going to share 10 observations from our trip to South Bend this past weekend where we witnessed just how bad the Notre Dame Cowering Irish football team really is.

Betting Group 1
Clean Sweep Games….These are games where one team has a clear statistical advantage over the other team. Some of the categories we consider are efficiency running the ball, converting third downs, stopping the run, stopping third downs and turnover ratio. If a team can control the clock and the ball, they are going to win and cover.

1 – UNC @ Wake Forest (-5.5) = This game is clear cut. Wake Forest runs for almost 50 yards more per game and is almost 10 percentage points higher converting third downs…42.2% versus 32.7%. Tie that in with a superior defense and a clear advantage in the turnover ration +4 versus -4 and you have a team playing at home in the midst of a 5 game winning streak. Some against the spread numbers (ATS) for you…Demon Deacons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in October. Demon Deacons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. Demon Deacons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games. Tar Heels are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. 6 points seems high and most experts are picking UNC after they scrapped it out with South Carolina two weeks ago. The “Clean sweep” stats are what is important to us and we are taking Wake. Plus, Wake is at home against a bitter in-state rival. Wake wins and covers!

Notre Dame Observation #1: Before we walked into the game, while we were walking around campus, we actually heard a student or young alumnus say the following: “Back in the good old days, when there were no girls at Notre Dame….” We were laughing so hard that we did not even bother listening to what he said after that because he was dead serious when he said it. The ND girls are not known to be lookers but at least they are not swinging tube steaks down there. The football team is bad and now the guys do not like girls. What has become of Notre Dame.

2 – Miami-Ohio @ Vanderbilt (-14) = Vandy wins the statistical battle across the board and is coming off an awesome win at South Carolina. Vanderbilt preys on the bad..Beat Richmond 41-17, Ole Miss 31-17 and Eastern Michigan 30-7. Some ATS numbers for you… Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf. Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Redhawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Redhawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on turf. Miami-Ohio just lost to Temple. TEMPLE!!!!! We think that says it all. Vandy wins easily.

Notre Dame Observation #2: At kickoff there were actually empty seats noticeable in the entire stadium, even the student section. We even received a call that we could buy 12 tickets at face value Friday afternoon. How much of a joke is that? Now you have a school where the Boys do not like girls and even the students turned on the football team.

3 – Iowa St. @ Missouri (-28.5) = Missouri is 6 and 0 against the spread and we love picking them. Now we all know we blew it with the Oklahoma/Iowa State game but this is payback. Last week was Iowa State’s homecoming, they were playing as hard as they have all year and eventually blew the game in the end. Missouri absolutely destroyed a dynamic Texas Tech team and loves to pour on the points. Iowa State will be in let down mode and Missouri will capitalize. I do not even need to break down the statistical differences between these two teams. It is a joke. 28.5 points are nothing in this matchup. Some ATS numbers for you….Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games. Tigers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October. Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. We think that says it all. Bet Missouri with confidence.

Notre Dame Observation #3: The fan base has turned on the team. Our favorite heckler kept yelling at Charlie Weis to run the ball three times for no gain and then punt so they could at least say they successfully punted the ball. it was loud, it was ugly and the fans are not happy in South Bend.

4 – UVA (-3) @ NC State = Here is what we know about NC State, they can not stop the run, can not run the ball and have turned the ball over 24 times this year for a minus 17 turnover ratio. Enough said? You could have given us 14 points in this game and we would have taken it. Just to rub it in….Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Cavaliers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games. Wolfpack are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win. Wolfpack are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games. Wolfpack are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games in October. Wolfpack are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games on grass. Wolfpack are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog. Wolfpack are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Wolfpack are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 conference games. Wolfpack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. We think you can see what we are talking about.

We are breaking out a new feature this week. Mrs. Flash Flash is jealous of Mrs. Bill Simmons and her NFL picking weekly feature so she wanted to speak her mind this week. Her pick of the week is this game because she likes UVA’s uniforms better than all the other teams we selected. We are not kidding. Use this information as you will UVA wins easily so says The Syndicate and Mrs. Flash Flash.

Notre Dame Observation #4: Notre Dame had one pre season all american candidate on defense and it was Tom Zibikowksi, a senior and I think a 5th year senior at that. Well USC came out and spread the ball and put Joe McKnight, a true freshman, isolated outside against Zibikowski. You would think a 5th year senior pre-season all american would have no problem covering an 18 year old kid but Zibikowski was jumping up and down that he needed help and could not cover the kid. Lucky for him, McKnight’s number was not called. Even the TV announcers picked up on this. What a joke. Notre Dame is over hyped and under talented.

Betting Group 2
The Turnover Dilemma Games…This is an interesting development. Teams that appear to have the statistical edge in every category with the exception of turnover ratio are only 7-7 and against the spread in the last 4 weeks. When you look at the home and away breakdown of this 7-7 number we came up with an even more revealing figure…..the home team that has a statistical advantage but does not have the turnover ratio advantage does not cover. We came up with two betting situations that we like applying this theory.

5 – Indiana (+7.5) @ Wisconsin = Wisonsin’s turnover ratio is minus 6 on the season and they have turned the ball over 13 times. Indiana is plus three on the year and has a ball hawking defense that has caused 20 turnovers. Another interesting stat…the road team is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 meetings. Indiana has been streaky and a tough team to figure out this year but we do know they can score points against anybody…31 against Penn State and 38 against Iowa are two impressive performances and they covered in both. Indiana went toe to toe with Penn State and came up just short. We think Wisconsin is a shell of its former self and their home field advantage is not as relevant as it was in the Barry Alvarez days. Some ATS numbers to back up this pick….Hoosiers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Hoosiers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in October. Badgers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Badgers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Badgers are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games. Plus, Wisconsin’s QB plays as nervous as a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs, and IU’s QB is a stud with a phenom wideout. Indiana will cover this line and do not be surprised if they win outright.

Notre Dame observation #5: The student section gave the USC cheerleaders a standing ovation. This caught us by surprise because the male student body already was on record saying the school was better when there were no girls there and now they were applauding the USC cheerleaders and then it struck us (NOTE: These girls were extremely attractive). Due to the high level of homosexuality that is now prevalent amongst Catholic Priests, the male student body must be primarliy gay and therefore was applauding the dance moves of the cheerleaders. We researched and heard that modern dance was now the number 1 sought after major by males on campus.

6 – Stanford (+13.5) @ Oregon State = Two more scary teams. Stanford beats USC one week and loses to TCU the following week. Oregon St. gets destroyed by Cincy and then beats Cal. Standford’s RB situation is unknown at this point due to injuries and that has us nervous but we love the scrappiness of Tavita Pritchard, Stanford’s QB. He led them back against Arizona last week and has the same “never quit” attitude that Vince Young has. Just so you are not totally afraid to make this bet…..Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Cardinal are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in October. And on the flip side….Beavers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Not much to go on but enough for us. Stanford continues to show its grit and covers.

Notre Dame Observation #6: We witnessed the strength, power and speed of the E-Freak up close and personal. Everson Griffen, #93 on the Trojans, all 6 foot 3 inches 265 pounds of him. A true freshman listed as a DE. This kid was a freak of nature out there. They brough him out primarily in passing situations and he was a beast and all over the field, even knocking down a pass. What was most impressive was when Pete Carroll lined up the E-freak at CB. Yes, he lined him up at cornerback!!!! We were dumbfounded and they ran to his side and the E-freak got involved on the tackle. You know your offense is absolutely the worst in the nation when an 18 year old defensive end can line up on your WRs. Man Notre Dame was bad!!! Look out for good things to come from the E-Freak. Watch out Dennis Dixon.

The Straight Cash Homey Picks: Sorry folks but we can not give away all our secrets. These are our special picks that we are more than happy to throw our own money on.

7 – Kansas (-2.5) @ Texas AandM = Ride the winning horse until it is defeated. Kansas is 6 and 0 against the spread. They pulled out a nice win at Colorado last week and will look to beat another Big 12 team on the road. Here are some ATS stats for you: Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October. Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Jayhawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games. Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Aggies are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The thing we think is most important though and the true reason for their success….Mark Mangino, the Jayhawk coach. This guy is by far one of the fattest coaches in the history of NCAA football. Check it out:

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Are you kidding us with this guy?!?!? He makes Charlie Weis look like Calista Flockhart!!! This guy is a monster and we would not screw with him….Ride that Kansas horse until it needs to be shot. Jayhawks win and cover on the road!

Notre Dame Observation #7: During the third quarter, Sharpley passed to Travis Thomas who was lit up by Cary Harris and fumbled the ball which was recovered by Keith Rivers. We were on the complete opposite side of the stadium when this hit went down and we could hear it…it sounded like somebody was cracking wood. We have never been to a live sporting event and heard a hit like this in our lifetime. We are not sure how it carried over on television or even how it looked but it sounded great. It is impressive that Travis Thomas got up and his head was still attached to his body.

8 – Arizona @ Washington (-3.5) = Wildcats are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games in October. Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Wildcats are 2-9 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Washington is extrememly well coached. Not saying AU is not, but Ty is a much better coach. He will have them ready to rock. They put up points and Oregon last week and kept that game close. AU will not like the road trip. Washington covers easily.

Notre Dame Observation #8: Jimmy Clausen’s prediction that he will never lose to USC if he is QB actually came true. Jimmy has been so good playing that Weis benched him and Jimmy was able to follow through with his bold prediction. No playing time = no chance of losing to USC. Nice work on your prediction Jimmy. Three more years to go with that one!!!

9 – Georgia @ Florida (-8.5) = This game will be a street fight. Look for big hits. These games have been close in the recent history. This game is being played in J’Ville, but the home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Gators are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Gators are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in October. Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Bulldogs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS loss. Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in October. Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Florida. Gators just have more athletes and more people to lay the lumber. If Florida can cover 9 against Kentucky, they can cover this. Take Florida and give the points.

Notre Dame Observation #9: We observed just how bad Notre Dame is as a team, coaches included. There is zero talent on that team and the play calling was worse than Ron Zook’s at Florida. If you do not know what I am talking about go find a Gators fan and he/she will fill you right in. Screen, screen, draw, screen, etc… You get our drift. Weis was terrible and needs to be held accountable for his game planning and the talent he recruited. He was bad and the players were bad and unprepared. Sharpley looked frantic on every passing play. We observed a horrendous ND team suffer the second worse home loss in its storied history and we loved it. Leprechaun land does not even have anything good to root for in the near term. You know the country is moving in the right direction when Notre Dame has one win and is ranked last in NCAA on offense. We love it!!!

10 – California (+3) @ Arizona State= This a BCS debacle game. We are playing the numbers here. Cal has lost two games in a row but they have not lost three straight games since losing the first 10 games of their 1-10 season in 2001. Also, the Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings and none of the games have been decided by less than 17 points. Golden Bears are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog. Golden Bears are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog. Golden Bears are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Sun Devils are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. The Sun Devils best RB, Ryan Torain, their leading rusher and scorer is now out for the season. Arizona State is not battle tested and will need to step up big to compete against Cal. We do not think they can. Cal bounces back with a win and a cover.

On a side note, I am very sorry but I was not able to make Jeff Tedford eat a turd sandwich this week. I am still working on it and if he burns us again he will be forced to eat a turd sandwich and wear a very large anal plug.

tedford-photo.jpg

“Hi my name is Jeff Tedford, I am scratching my head because I have no idea why I let a red shirt freshman ruin our season and ultimately take money out of the pockets of the readers of this fine blog. Runny and Flash are great guys and if I fail this week I will eat that turd sandwich, with an anal plug up my rectum. You can count on it.”

Notre Dame Observation #10: Although we have been bashing the beloved Leprechaun lovers in this post, we must give props where due. The entire staff on campus could not have been more polite. Seriously, it was like we were watching a game in a 5 star restaurant. An usher even gave us a “congrats” on our way out the stadium. They say a team/organization shows its true colors in a defeat. The ND staff was all class. Thanks for the hospitality.

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Flash Flash and Runny

October 25, 2007 Posted by | Arizona State, BCS, Beavers, Betting, Big East, Big Ten, Bulldogs, California, Charlie Weis, Colorado Buffaloes, Commodores, cyclones, Demon Deacons, ESPN, Fighting Irish, Florida, Florida Gators, Football, Gambling, Gamecock, Georgia Bulldogs, Golden Bears, Huskies, Indiana Hoosiers, Iowa State, Iowa State Cyclones, Irish, Jeff Tedford, Kansas Jayhawks, Mark Mangino, Miami Ohio, Missouri, NC State, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon State, Pac-10, Redhawks, SEC, Sooners, South Bend, South Carolina Gamecocks, Sports, Stanford, Stanford Cardinals, Sun Devils, Tar Heels, Texas A&M, Tigers, UVA, Vanderbilt, Virginia Cavaliers, Wake Forest, Washington Huskies, Winning Picks, Wisconsin Badgers, Wolfpack | 11 Comments