RPJ Betting Syndicate

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NCAA Football Week 13 Games: Winning Picks and Chicks for 11/24/2007

After the USC/Arizona State decimation we are 49-45 on the season, 5-3 on Eva Mendes bets and up 12 units. We still have Friday’s games to go so check out that post if you want to bet today’s games. We have 7 picks for you for Saturday’s games and one is another Eva Mendes bet.

Game 1 – Maryland at NC State (-2.5) – This is the “I wish I was Natalie Gulbis’ sweatshirt” game. When you look at the picture below imagine what it must feel like to be Natalie’s sweatshirt.

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We bet it feels freaking incredible, maybe one of the best feelings on earth at that particular mid stretch moment. So when you look at Maryland and NC State sitting at 5-6 in the win loss column, one win away from being bowl eligible where they might have a chance to play in the December 11 Velveeta pimento loaf bowl you can bet that each one of these teams wishes they were Natalie Gulbis’ sweatshirt right about now and that is a place that is MUCH MUCH Better than where they are now. Some ATS numbers for you:

Maryland
Terrapins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

NC State
Wolfpack are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.
Wolfpack are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Wolfpack are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Wolfpack are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Wolfpack are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Wolfpack are 3-12 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Wolfpack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.

The battle of the 5-6 teams is really not an exciting one and NC State has been playing better of late but we are not buying them. We both looked at this line and immediately thought it was wrong and that Maryland should be favored. These two teams historically have played each other pretty close of late, averaging a 5 point margin of victory over the last 5 years. Call it a hunch but we are going with the team that has the fattest head coach in honor of Mark Mangino. Take Maryland and the points!!!

Game 2 – Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (-11.5) – The “What is the temperature up there” game! Oklahoma basically holds its own destiny in terms of the Big 12 Championship game and they have an outside chance to make it to the BCS title game. This cheerleader is helping out her Sooners by seeing what the temperature is up there in that pose. Can they win? Will Bradford stay in for the whole game? What will the impact be missing DeMarco Murray?

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Oklahoma leading rusher DeMarco Murray dislocated a kneecap trying to recover an onside kick last week and will be forced to miss this game. Quarterback Sam Bradford sustained a concussion in the loss last week but he has been cleared to play. We do not think he will be 100%. Then throw in that this is a rivalry game and Oklahoma State plays well on the road in Big 12 action, giving up an average of 17.3 points. We are definitely intrigued. Check out the ATS numbers:

Oklahoma State
Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.

Oklahoma
Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Sooners are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Sooners are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Sooners are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

We are not concerned with who wins this game but we think Oklahoma State is good enough to cover and possibly win outright. We are banking on the cover. Take Oklahoma State!!!

Game 3 – UCONN at West Virginia (-17.5) – The Battle for the Big East is not what the experts were predicting at the beginning of the year. Who the heck would have thought UCONN would be in first place right now, holding their own destiny. This will be a very tough game to watch but if you have watched UCONN this year you know that their defense is legit and likes to hit. We know West Virginia’s dynamic duo of Slaton and White do not like to get hit and are prone to fumble. Lets look at the ATS numbers:

UCONN
Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Huskies are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in November.

West Virginia
Mountaineers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games on turf.
Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Mountaineers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
Mountaineers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite.
Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Mountaineers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

We think all signs line up for a UCONN cover and we think this game will be a lot closer than people think. West Virginia probably wins but we like UCONN to keep it close. Take UCONN!!!

Game 4 – Florida State at Florida (-13.5) – This is our Eva Mendes bet for Saturday’s games. We are betting 5 times our normal betting unit and we absolutely love the picture below so much we had to show it again. That ass did win big for us last weekend so we are gonna ride it until it bucks us off.

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We were actually surprised to see this line in the 2 TD range and thought it really could have been more around 20-22 points. Florida State is inept on offense and the defenses match up pretty evenly. Lately Florida State has been winning close games or losing and Florida has thumped its last three opponents since the Georgia game, scoring at least 49 points in each game. Florida State has only scored 30 points once this year and that was back on September 8 when they barely beat UAB by 10 points. Also, Florida State gave Florida bulletin board material earlier in the week when Florida State linebacker Geno Hayes boldly predicted Monday that “Tim Tebow’s going down.” “The bigger they are the harder they fall,” Hayes said. “Hopefully we can go out there and shatter his dream.” Well we think Geno Hayes is a JACKASS!!!!! Florida gets Percy Harvin back for this game after he missed the last two. Do not expect this game to be as close as last year when Florida only won 21-14. This Florida team is really putting up points and Tebow is going for the Heisman. Lets look at the ATS numbers:

Florida State
Seminoles are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win.
Seminoles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

Florida
Gators are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
Gators are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.

Lets look at the head to head matchups: The favorite is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings. The home team is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings. The Seminoles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Florida. So what does this all add up to….a Florida smack down. We think Florida easily wins and covers in this game and we are betting Eva’s sweet ass that they do!!!

Game 5 – Clemson at South Carolina (+3) – “The stick it here game” Clemson is going to have to rebound from a heartbreaking loss to Boston College. Clemson lost last year to South Carolina and in 2004 the two teams brawled and had to give up their postseason eligibility. We think the Clemson Tigers are going to want to stick it to South Carolina and put it right where this cheerleader’s picture shows:

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South Carolina is now playing bad football. They have lost 4 in a row and have no defense. Throw in the fact that Clemson wins the turnover margin +10 to minus 5 and has a much better defense and we like how this is looking. We know CLemson likes to run the ball and South Carolina gives up 208.8 yards per game on defense. I think you can see where we are going with this. Some ATS numbers for you:

Clemson
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. SEC.

South Carolina
Gamecocks are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games in November.
Gamecocks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Gamecocks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Gamecocks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. ACC.
Gamecocks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
Gamecocks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Gamecocks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Gamecocks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Gamecocks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Gamecocks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.

Head to head the Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings, the Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in South Carolina and the Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Did we get you excited yet? We think Clemson rebounds from their BC loss just like Virginia Tech did and wins this tough game. Take Clemson to win and cover!!!

Game 6 – Cincinnati at Syracuse (+20) – “The in your Face Game” – This is a clean sweep game and Cincy will be all over Syracuse. Take a look at this cheerleader picture and check out the male cheerleader in the front getting a full face of muff.

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Cuse is the muff and Cincy is the male cheerleader. Cincy will be all over Cuse in this one. This has blow out written all over it. Cincy rushes for more than twice what Cuse rushes for, Cuse only converts 28.8% of its third downs on offense (this is almost as bad as Notre Dame but not quite!!!), Cuse gives up 217 yards a game rushing, lets opponents convert third downs almost 50% of the time and loses the turnover ratio battle -5 to 17. Check out these ATS numbers:

Cincinnati
Bearcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Bearcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf.
Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Bearcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Bearcats are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Bearcats are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games.

Syracuse
Orange are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Orange are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Orange are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Orange are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on turf.
Orange are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Orange are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.
Orange are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Orange are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Orange are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.

Now throw in the fact that the Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and you have to bet Cincy in this one. Bearcats win big and cover this high number!!!

Game 7 – Missouri at Kansas (-2) = first things first, we send our dearest apologies to Kansas coach Mark Mangino after we doubted his Kansas squad last week. We knew they would win but finally felt like they would not cover. Boy were we wrong!!! So we send our most sincere of apologies to you Mr. Mangino. You are the real deal and you are doing an awesome job.

This is the “Hot boxing chick versus the hot Mixed Martial Arts chicks Game”. Who would not want to see these two beauties go at it and well in reality they do fight for a living. Here is a picture of Frida Wallberg:

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If you do not believe that she is a real fighter then chech out this website on women’s boxing.

And now for our Muay Thai chick Miss Gina Carano:

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So why two chick fighters? Because this football game is going to be a great fight. Both teams are on a roll, the winner plays in the Big 12 Championship game and has a really good shot, if they win out, to make it to the BCS promised land….The BCS National Championship Game. Also, the winning QB will immediately jump out and be considered one of the leading candidates for the Heisman trophy. Lets take a look at the ATS numbers:

Missouri
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on turf.
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Tigers are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.
Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Tigers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.

Kansas
Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Jayhawks are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.
Jayhawks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
Jayhawks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win.
Jayhawks are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games.
Jayhawks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite.
Jayhawks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
Jayhawks are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games on turf.
Jayhawks are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win.

We threw every number at you. There is nothing negative to say about either team. If you had to pick on one thing and we are going to throw a lot of weight at it, it is who has the better defense and the way we see it, Kansas has the clear advantage. Kansas holds opponents to 84 yards per game rushing (122 for Missouri), Kansas lets offenses convert third downs 30% of the time (43% for Missouri) and Kansas wins the turnover ratio margin 21 to 10. Now some people might say that Kansas did not have to play Texas, Oklahoma or Texas Tech on its way to its undefeated season but we do not think that is relevant. Kansas smacked every single opponent in the face regardless of who they faced and they are getting better as the season goes on. We think this game will come down to turnovers and who can stop who and playing the numbers all signs point to Kansas. Also, when you throw in the fact that Kansas has the fattest coach in NCAA, you have to love them. Ride the Mangino train.

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We love Kansas to win and cover!!!

Flash Flash and Runny

November 23, 2007 Posted by | Arizona State, BCS, Betting, Big East, Clemson, Clemson Tigers, ESPN, Eva Mendes, Florida, Florida Gators, Florida State Seminoles, Football, Free NCAA picks, Gambling, Gamecock, Huskies, Kansas Jayhawks, Mark Mangino, Maryland, Missouri, Mountaineers, Natalie Gulbis, NC State, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Orangemen, SEC, Sooners, South Carolina Gamecocks, Sports, Syracuse, Terrapins, Tigers, Trojans, Uconn, USC, USC Trojans, West Virginia, Wolfpack | 1 Comment

NCAA Football Week 10 Picks: From the Outhouse to the Penthouse

The Suicidal Tendancies said it best:

“The penthouse or the outhouse? Seems like an easy decision to me. So what we’re all thinkin’ about right now is what we’re talkin’ about, what we’re talkin’ about is what we’re thinkin’ about, and that’s the whole point: you should think before you talk. So where we’re at right now is a place that we want to go: a little bit of help. See: everyday, everywhere you go, people do stupid things. Three hundred and sixty five days out of the year, people not thinkin’. People that have the ability to think, that aren’t thinkin’. So what we want to do is nominate one day. Call it International Don’t Be Stupid Day. Now what this is gonna do is be a little reminder, maybe we could wear a pin, maybe you could send a tape to somebody, and when they start to do somethin’ you say, whoa, whoa, whoa. Hold on there partner. Today is Don’t Be Stupid Day, so you can’t do that.”

Last week was plain old stupid and we are going to rise from the outhouse to the penthouse this week and in the coming weeks with our Stupid Day behind us. After 10 weeks we are 31-30 overall, 3-3 with Brinks truck bets (bet 5 times your normal bet) and up 1 unit. Yes this record makes us sick and we just puked in our mouthes writing those numbers. It is tough to go through some losing weeks and in 9 weeks we have only had 2 down weeks. We feel your pain because we always bet what we write and bet the lines we post.

We are not going to sit here and make excuses. You all saw that during the same weekend we went 2-8 in NCAA picks we went 5-0 in the NFL. Picks will go up and down but we know our system picks consistent winners over the course of the season and takes advantage of the mecca that is called Bowl Season. And now with the picks…..

Clean Sweep Games – These our games where we find teams that have a statistical advantage over their opponent and by statistical advantage we mean that the opponent is not better in any of the areas we track. We track rushing offenses, 3rd down conversions, rushing defenses, defensive 3rd down conversions and turnover ratio. Well this is what we publically say because we have some other secret SAUCE stats that we keep to ourselves.

My baby got sauce
Your baby ain’t sweet like mine
She got sauce
Your baby ain’t sweet like mine
She got sauce ….
That’s some funky lemonade you got going there babe

The picks were funky last week but we know a weekend where we crush it again is right around the corner cause we have the Special Sauce.

1 – Clemson (-16.5) @ Duke – Clemson dominates Duke across the board and we won with a Va Tech team at Duke a few weeks back. Duke is really bad, not Notre Dame bad, but bad. Ha ha. We love ripping the Notre Dame Quivering Irish (stay tuned for a special write up on the Navy/Notre Dame game – this gets its own blog). Clemson is going to run all over the Blue Devils and embarass them. Two points to consider if you are squeamish…Home team is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings and Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Duke. We think some other stats are more important like Tigers are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Blue Devils are 10-27 ATS in their last 37 home games. Blue Devils are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog. Blue Devils are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater. AND OUR FAVORITE…Blue Devils are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Tigers maul the Blue Devils. Everybody knows devils are red, c’mon now. Clemson wins and covers!!!

2 – South Carolina @ Arkansas (-4.5) – South Carolina can not stop the run and they certainly have never stopped McFadden…he ran for 219 yards in 2006 and 187 yards in 2005. Now with Felix Jones also in the backfield averaging 8.8 yards a carry…the Game Cocks are in trouble. Spurrier now is tinkering with his offense and QB and we think that means trouble. Arkansas QB, Casey Dick, suffered a concussion last week and was replaced by Nathan Emert who filled in adequately. As we said this game is about running. Arkansas runs for 288 yards a game and South Carolina gives up 169. This is going to be a long day for South Carolina. Arkansas covers and wins!!!

Bye Bye Birdie Games

“Bye Bye Birdie
I’m gonna miss you so;
Bye Bye Birdie,
Why’d you have to go?

If you read and follow college football you know that BCS conference teams coming off a bye are 20-8 against the spread. We like two of these teams who are playing at home. Bye bye road teams, thanks for playing.

3 – Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech (-2.5) – The entire nation felt the Hokies heartbreak last Thursday night in a brutal home loss to BC. Now the Hokies must travel to Atlanta to face a Georgia Tech team that is rested, playing at home and on national tv. In other words this has heartbreak city and major let down written all over it. Georgia Tech has a punishing ground attack and one of the best defensive schemes in the country. The Hokies have one of the worst offenses in college football. This game will likely start on even footing but G. Tech will wear down the Hokies by the end of the game. This game will be a beatdown if Glennon plays. Georgia Tech wins and covers!!!

4 – Texas A and M @ Oklahoma (minus 21) – We are not afraid of the points. Kansas easily defeated A and M on the road and Oklahoma will not have any problem at home. The Aggies players know they are playing for a lame duck coach after Coach Fran’s email booster incident. Oklahoma is coming off the bye and looking to continue its push for the BCS title game. Sooners win in a blowout!!!

The Pimp Hand Games

Yeah bitch I got my Now and Later gators on
I’m bout to show you how my pimp hand is way strong
Your dead wrong if ya think that pimpin’ gon’ die
Twelve piece with a hundred hoes by my side

We hope this is self explanatory. When teams are hot you ride em til they show a weak pimp hand.

5 – Nebraska @ Kansas (minus 180) – The high spread scares us but Kansas is 7-0 against the spread. Kansas was damn close to a clean sweep but missed out on offensive third down conversions by 2 percentage points. Kansas rushes for almost 65 more yards a game, has a much better defense and wins the turnover ratio 11 to minus 9. They also have the fattest coach in the history of the NCAA. We pointed this out last week and there is no denying Mark Mangino.

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That right there is the Kansas coach. Large and in charge and we are not going to tell him he won’t cover. He is so fat we put his pic in twice so you do not do a double take.  Oh yeah, and you see that liquid that is covering him? That is from the cloud he just engulfed. As far as we are concerned, Coach Mangino has the largest pimp hand on the planet. In a pimp hand game, always take the guy with the biggest pimp hand. Ride this Kansas team until they blow it. Kansas wins and covers!!!

6 – Missouri (-4) @ Colorado – Yeah we know Missouri cut us last week but that was their only loss against the spread all season. Missouri did lose their starting Strong Safety last week but we do not think it will matter against Colorado’s young QB. We all saw what Missouri’s D did to Texas Tech. Kansas went on the road to Boulder and covered and now Missouri will do the same. If you are afraid to back Missouri here are some numbers for you… Tigers are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Tigers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss. AND JUST TO KICK THEM WHEN THEY ARE DOWN…Buffaloes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 conference games. Buffaloes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win. Buffaloes are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog. Buffaloes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win. Buffaloes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Missouri has the Show Me State pimp hand rockin’ and they will show the Univeristy of Colorado what its all about as they show us the money. Missouri wins and covers!!!

The SEC Road Cover Game

On the road again
Like a band of gypsies we go down the highway
We’re the best of friends
Insisting that the world be turnin’ our way
And our way
Is on the road again
Just can’t wait to get on the road again
The life I love is makin’ music with my friends
And I can’t wait to get on the road again

We love betting the highest competitive SEC road game when we think two teams are competitive enough to play the game.

7 – Vanderbilt (plus 14.5) @ Florida – This game is absolutely terrifying. Florida got the snot kicked out of it last week against Georgia and Vandy beat a Miami-Ohio team in a very unconvincing manner. So why do we like this game. Georgia showed how to beat Florida. You can score on them, they turn the ball over and they do not have a RB that Urban Meyer trusts. Vanderbilt has the 14th rated defense in the league and Tebow is beat up. Look at some of the against the spread numbers (ATS)…Commodores are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Commodores are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. Commodores are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Commodores are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog. Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Commodores are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 road games. Gators are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite. Gators are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 conference games. Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November. Gators are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. The numbers do not lie. Vandy plays teams tough and rises to the challenge and Florida plays down to its competition. Cringe, close your eyes and ride Vandy to the cover!!!

The Magic Carpet Ride Game

Well, you don’t know what we can find
Why don’t you come with me little girl
On a magic carpet ride
You don’t know what we can see
Why don’t you tell your dreams to me
Fantasy will set you free
Close your eyes girl
Look inside girl
Let the sound take you away

When you see a player mature and rise up to victory like Matt Ryan did against Virginia Tech last week you absolutely positively want to ride the momentum and this leads us to the next game…

8 – Florida State @ Boston College (-7) – We can not believe this spread is under 10 points and Boston College has been feasting on ACC foes all year. BC is 5-2 ATS this year and the two losses were against Notre Dame in the fix game (sorry, still sour over this one) and Army. They have easily covered against NC State and Georgia Tech and scrapped out the win versus the Hokies under brutal conditions. This is not a let down game Trust us!!! Seminoles are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Seminoles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Seminoles are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games in November. Seminoles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games. Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Eagles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite. Eagles are 35-17 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Boston College wins and covers no problem!!!

The Ruler’s Back Game

Gather ’round party goers as if your still livin
And get on down to the old Slick rhythm
Now this one here is called the Ruler my dear
Its a mere party booster that will set things clear
Its a hundred percent proof from champions of truth
And if you feel you need spirit I’ll bring back your youth
Relax your mind, and folks unwind
And be kind to a rhythm that you hardly find
And off we go, let the trumpets blow
Well hold on, because the driver of the mission is a pro
The Ruler’s back

Just when everybody said it was impossible to go play Penn State during a white out at night and all the so-called experts were declaring Ohio State was prime for the pickings they laid a whooping on Joe Pa and the Fraidy Cat Lions. What a joke and that leads us to the same scenario this week.

9 – Wisconsin @ Ohio State (-15.5) – Wisconsin lost 38-7 at Penn State and Ohio State beats Penn State 37-17. Now we hear rumblings that PJ Hill is injured and might not play not that he would have mattered against Ohio State’s defense. Rumaging across the Internet we see that 56% of people are placing bets on Wisconsin, so that means the average Joe Blow thinks Wisconsin is getting too many points and now we have ATS numbers that tell us to run away too…Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Ohio State. Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings. Underdog is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings. All signs point to Wisconsin until you realize Ohio State has not played Wisconsin since 2004 meaning in the Barry Alvarez days. This is a different team and has shown that they will collapse against an aggressive defense. We could show you stats either way but if Ohio State can beat Penn State by 20 on the road they certainly can beat Wisconsin at home by 20 and we need less than that to cover. Buckeyes continue their onslaught on the Big Ten…win and cover!!!

And there you have it. 9 games to bet on. Take our picks or don’t…we do not care cause our money is on these games right now. We always play what we preach.

Please feel free to post comments, ask questions about games we did not pick or post your own picks to show us what you got.

‘Cause it makes me that much stronger
Makes me work a little bit harder
Makes me that much wiser
So thanks for making me a fighter
Made me learn a little bit faster
Made my skin a little bit thicker
It makes me that much smarter
So thanks for making me a fighter

Flash Flash and Runny

P.S. The Cal Golgen Bears were a clean sweep game this week but simply on principle of Jeff Tedford eating back to back turd sandwiches and wearing an XL butt plug we are stayaing as far away from the Washington St./Cal game as we can. Avoid that game at all costs. Still working on the Tedford turd sandwich. We will have our day!!!!

November 1, 2007 Posted by | Arkansas Razorbacks, BCS, Betting, Big Ten, Blue Devils, Boston College, Buckeyes, Clemson, Colorado Buffaloes, Commodores, Cornhuskers, Duke, Eagles, ESPN, Fighting Irish, Florida, Florida Gators, Football, Gambling, Gamecock, Georgia Tech, Irish, Jeff Tedford, Kansas Jayhawks, Mark Mangino, Matt Ryan, Missouri, Navy, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, SEC, Sooners, South Carolina Gamecocks, Texas A&M, Tim Tebow, Urban Meyer, Vanderbilt, VaTech, Virginia Tech, Virginia Tech Hokies, Wisconsin Badgers, Yellow Jackets | 2 Comments

NCAA Football Week 9 Picks: The Power of 10 – 10 Winning Picks and 10 Observations from South Bend

“It is not worth an intelligent man’s time to be in the majority. By definition, there are already enough people to do that.” — Godfrey Harold Hardy

Sometimes sports betting becomes one big quandary, picks do not seem logical, spreads do not make sense and you are left scratching your head trying to find a new edge. Our picks are not going to put you in the majority of the betting world and that is a good thing. We have a system and we know it works, no matter how crazy logic fights what we are telling you to do. Do we want it to work better…sure we do but we are picking winners at a 57% right now, we have had one losing week this entire season. So while the other handicappers and sports bettors are trying to find winners we know our big pay day is right around the corner. Stick with us-we do the research so you don’t have to. Our system works and you will continue to see that we are elite. Bring on Bowl Season already!!!!

As always, our disclaimer, we are 29-22 on the season, 3-3 with our Brinks Truck bets (5 times your normal betting unit, and we are up 7 units on the season. Lastly, our money is where our mouth is. We bet every one of these games at the lines we post.

We are not laying down a Brinks truck bet this week. The truck is still in the shop!

The theme of this week is The Power of 10. We have 10 picks for you and we are going to share 10 observations from our trip to South Bend this past weekend where we witnessed just how bad the Notre Dame Cowering Irish football team really is.

Betting Group 1
Clean Sweep Games….These are games where one team has a clear statistical advantage over the other team. Some of the categories we consider are efficiency running the ball, converting third downs, stopping the run, stopping third downs and turnover ratio. If a team can control the clock and the ball, they are going to win and cover.

1 – UNC @ Wake Forest (-5.5) = This game is clear cut. Wake Forest runs for almost 50 yards more per game and is almost 10 percentage points higher converting third downs…42.2% versus 32.7%. Tie that in with a superior defense and a clear advantage in the turnover ration +4 versus -4 and you have a team playing at home in the midst of a 5 game winning streak. Some against the spread numbers (ATS) for you…Demon Deacons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in October. Demon Deacons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. Demon Deacons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games. Tar Heels are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. 6 points seems high and most experts are picking UNC after they scrapped it out with South Carolina two weeks ago. The “Clean sweep” stats are what is important to us and we are taking Wake. Plus, Wake is at home against a bitter in-state rival. Wake wins and covers!

Notre Dame Observation #1: Before we walked into the game, while we were walking around campus, we actually heard a student or young alumnus say the following: “Back in the good old days, when there were no girls at Notre Dame….” We were laughing so hard that we did not even bother listening to what he said after that because he was dead serious when he said it. The ND girls are not known to be lookers but at least they are not swinging tube steaks down there. The football team is bad and now the guys do not like girls. What has become of Notre Dame.

2 – Miami-Ohio @ Vanderbilt (-14) = Vandy wins the statistical battle across the board and is coming off an awesome win at South Carolina. Vanderbilt preys on the bad..Beat Richmond 41-17, Ole Miss 31-17 and Eastern Michigan 30-7. Some ATS numbers for you… Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf. Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Redhawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Redhawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on turf. Miami-Ohio just lost to Temple. TEMPLE!!!!! We think that says it all. Vandy wins easily.

Notre Dame Observation #2: At kickoff there were actually empty seats noticeable in the entire stadium, even the student section. We even received a call that we could buy 12 tickets at face value Friday afternoon. How much of a joke is that? Now you have a school where the Boys do not like girls and even the students turned on the football team.

3 – Iowa St. @ Missouri (-28.5) = Missouri is 6 and 0 against the spread and we love picking them. Now we all know we blew it with the Oklahoma/Iowa State game but this is payback. Last week was Iowa State’s homecoming, they were playing as hard as they have all year and eventually blew the game in the end. Missouri absolutely destroyed a dynamic Texas Tech team and loves to pour on the points. Iowa State will be in let down mode and Missouri will capitalize. I do not even need to break down the statistical differences between these two teams. It is a joke. 28.5 points are nothing in this matchup. Some ATS numbers for you….Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games. Tigers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October. Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. We think that says it all. Bet Missouri with confidence.

Notre Dame Observation #3: The fan base has turned on the team. Our favorite heckler kept yelling at Charlie Weis to run the ball three times for no gain and then punt so they could at least say they successfully punted the ball. it was loud, it was ugly and the fans are not happy in South Bend.

4 – UVA (-3) @ NC State = Here is what we know about NC State, they can not stop the run, can not run the ball and have turned the ball over 24 times this year for a minus 17 turnover ratio. Enough said? You could have given us 14 points in this game and we would have taken it. Just to rub it in….Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Cavaliers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games. Wolfpack are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win. Wolfpack are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games. Wolfpack are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games in October. Wolfpack are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games on grass. Wolfpack are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog. Wolfpack are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Wolfpack are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 conference games. Wolfpack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. We think you can see what we are talking about.

We are breaking out a new feature this week. Mrs. Flash Flash is jealous of Mrs. Bill Simmons and her NFL picking weekly feature so she wanted to speak her mind this week. Her pick of the week is this game because she likes UVA’s uniforms better than all the other teams we selected. We are not kidding. Use this information as you will UVA wins easily so says The Syndicate and Mrs. Flash Flash.

Notre Dame Observation #4: Notre Dame had one pre season all american candidate on defense and it was Tom Zibikowksi, a senior and I think a 5th year senior at that. Well USC came out and spread the ball and put Joe McKnight, a true freshman, isolated outside against Zibikowski. You would think a 5th year senior pre-season all american would have no problem covering an 18 year old kid but Zibikowski was jumping up and down that he needed help and could not cover the kid. Lucky for him, McKnight’s number was not called. Even the TV announcers picked up on this. What a joke. Notre Dame is over hyped and under talented.

Betting Group 2
The Turnover Dilemma Games…This is an interesting development. Teams that appear to have the statistical edge in every category with the exception of turnover ratio are only 7-7 and against the spread in the last 4 weeks. When you look at the home and away breakdown of this 7-7 number we came up with an even more revealing figure…..the home team that has a statistical advantage but does not have the turnover ratio advantage does not cover. We came up with two betting situations that we like applying this theory.

5 – Indiana (+7.5) @ Wisconsin = Wisonsin’s turnover ratio is minus 6 on the season and they have turned the ball over 13 times. Indiana is plus three on the year and has a ball hawking defense that has caused 20 turnovers. Another interesting stat…the road team is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 meetings. Indiana has been streaky and a tough team to figure out this year but we do know they can score points against anybody…31 against Penn State and 38 against Iowa are two impressive performances and they covered in both. Indiana went toe to toe with Penn State and came up just short. We think Wisconsin is a shell of its former self and their home field advantage is not as relevant as it was in the Barry Alvarez days. Some ATS numbers to back up this pick….Hoosiers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Hoosiers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in October. Badgers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Badgers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Badgers are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games. Plus, Wisconsin’s QB plays as nervous as a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs, and IU’s QB is a stud with a phenom wideout. Indiana will cover this line and do not be surprised if they win outright.

Notre Dame observation #5: The student section gave the USC cheerleaders a standing ovation. This caught us by surprise because the male student body already was on record saying the school was better when there were no girls there and now they were applauding the USC cheerleaders and then it struck us (NOTE: These girls were extremely attractive). Due to the high level of homosexuality that is now prevalent amongst Catholic Priests, the male student body must be primarliy gay and therefore was applauding the dance moves of the cheerleaders. We researched and heard that modern dance was now the number 1 sought after major by males on campus.

6 – Stanford (+13.5) @ Oregon State = Two more scary teams. Stanford beats USC one week and loses to TCU the following week. Oregon St. gets destroyed by Cincy and then beats Cal. Standford’s RB situation is unknown at this point due to injuries and that has us nervous but we love the scrappiness of Tavita Pritchard, Stanford’s QB. He led them back against Arizona last week and has the same “never quit” attitude that Vince Young has. Just so you are not totally afraid to make this bet…..Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Cardinal are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in October. And on the flip side….Beavers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Not much to go on but enough for us. Stanford continues to show its grit and covers.

Notre Dame Observation #6: We witnessed the strength, power and speed of the E-Freak up close and personal. Everson Griffen, #93 on the Trojans, all 6 foot 3 inches 265 pounds of him. A true freshman listed as a DE. This kid was a freak of nature out there. They brough him out primarily in passing situations and he was a beast and all over the field, even knocking down a pass. What was most impressive was when Pete Carroll lined up the E-freak at CB. Yes, he lined him up at cornerback!!!! We were dumbfounded and they ran to his side and the E-freak got involved on the tackle. You know your offense is absolutely the worst in the nation when an 18 year old defensive end can line up on your WRs. Man Notre Dame was bad!!! Look out for good things to come from the E-Freak. Watch out Dennis Dixon.

The Straight Cash Homey Picks: Sorry folks but we can not give away all our secrets. These are our special picks that we are more than happy to throw our own money on.

7 – Kansas (-2.5) @ Texas AandM = Ride the winning horse until it is defeated. Kansas is 6 and 0 against the spread. They pulled out a nice win at Colorado last week and will look to beat another Big 12 team on the road. Here are some ATS stats for you: Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October. Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Jayhawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games. Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Aggies are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The thing we think is most important though and the true reason for their success….Mark Mangino, the Jayhawk coach. This guy is by far one of the fattest coaches in the history of NCAA football. Check it out:

mangino-action-shot.jpg

Are you kidding us with this guy?!?!? He makes Charlie Weis look like Calista Flockhart!!! This guy is a monster and we would not screw with him….Ride that Kansas horse until it needs to be shot. Jayhawks win and cover on the road!

Notre Dame Observation #7: During the third quarter, Sharpley passed to Travis Thomas who was lit up by Cary Harris and fumbled the ball which was recovered by Keith Rivers. We were on the complete opposite side of the stadium when this hit went down and we could hear it…it sounded like somebody was cracking wood. We have never been to a live sporting event and heard a hit like this in our lifetime. We are not sure how it carried over on television or even how it looked but it sounded great. It is impressive that Travis Thomas got up and his head was still attached to his body.

8 – Arizona @ Washington (-3.5) = Wildcats are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games in October. Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Wildcats are 2-9 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Washington is extrememly well coached. Not saying AU is not, but Ty is a much better coach. He will have them ready to rock. They put up points and Oregon last week and kept that game close. AU will not like the road trip. Washington covers easily.

Notre Dame Observation #8: Jimmy Clausen’s prediction that he will never lose to USC if he is QB actually came true. Jimmy has been so good playing that Weis benched him and Jimmy was able to follow through with his bold prediction. No playing time = no chance of losing to USC. Nice work on your prediction Jimmy. Three more years to go with that one!!!

9 – Georgia @ Florida (-8.5) = This game will be a street fight. Look for big hits. These games have been close in the recent history. This game is being played in J’Ville, but the home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Gators are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Gators are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in October. Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Bulldogs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS loss. Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in October. Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Florida. Gators just have more athletes and more people to lay the lumber. If Florida can cover 9 against Kentucky, they can cover this. Take Florida and give the points.

Notre Dame Observation #9: We observed just how bad Notre Dame is as a team, coaches included. There is zero talent on that team and the play calling was worse than Ron Zook’s at Florida. If you do not know what I am talking about go find a Gators fan and he/she will fill you right in. Screen, screen, draw, screen, etc… You get our drift. Weis was terrible and needs to be held accountable for his game planning and the talent he recruited. He was bad and the players were bad and unprepared. Sharpley looked frantic on every passing play. We observed a horrendous ND team suffer the second worse home loss in its storied history and we loved it. Leprechaun land does not even have anything good to root for in the near term. You know the country is moving in the right direction when Notre Dame has one win and is ranked last in NCAA on offense. We love it!!!

10 – California (+3) @ Arizona State= This a BCS debacle game. We are playing the numbers here. Cal has lost two games in a row but they have not lost three straight games since losing the first 10 games of their 1-10 season in 2001. Also, the Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings and none of the games have been decided by less than 17 points. Golden Bears are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog. Golden Bears are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog. Golden Bears are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Sun Devils are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. The Sun Devils best RB, Ryan Torain, their leading rusher and scorer is now out for the season. Arizona State is not battle tested and will need to step up big to compete against Cal. We do not think they can. Cal bounces back with a win and a cover.

On a side note, I am very sorry but I was not able to make Jeff Tedford eat a turd sandwich this week. I am still working on it and if he burns us again he will be forced to eat a turd sandwich and wear a very large anal plug.

tedford-photo.jpg

“Hi my name is Jeff Tedford, I am scratching my head because I have no idea why I let a red shirt freshman ruin our season and ultimately take money out of the pockets of the readers of this fine blog. Runny and Flash are great guys and if I fail this week I will eat that turd sandwich, with an anal plug up my rectum. You can count on it.”

Notre Dame Observation #10: Although we have been bashing the beloved Leprechaun lovers in this post, we must give props where due. The entire staff on campus could not have been more polite. Seriously, it was like we were watching a game in a 5 star restaurant. An usher even gave us a “congrats” on our way out the stadium. They say a team/organization shows its true colors in a defeat. The ND staff was all class. Thanks for the hospitality.

We love the banter that has been increasing on our blog. Feel free to post your picks or ask us for our advice. We check this regularly and will post as soon as we can. Also, our blog reader base has been steadily increasing and we want to hear what you have to say about us… good or bad. Leave us a comment, leave us your picks, ask us questions….we are here for you and here for you to make money!!!

We love our picks like a fat kid loves cake!!!!

Flash Flash and Runny

October 25, 2007 Posted by | Arizona State, BCS, Beavers, Betting, Big East, Big Ten, Bulldogs, California, Charlie Weis, Colorado Buffaloes, Commodores, cyclones, Demon Deacons, ESPN, Fighting Irish, Florida, Florida Gators, Football, Gambling, Gamecock, Georgia Bulldogs, Golden Bears, Huskies, Indiana Hoosiers, Iowa State, Iowa State Cyclones, Irish, Jeff Tedford, Kansas Jayhawks, Mark Mangino, Miami Ohio, Missouri, NC State, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon State, Pac-10, Redhawks, SEC, Sooners, South Bend, South Carolina Gamecocks, Sports, Stanford, Stanford Cardinals, Sun Devils, Tar Heels, Texas A&M, Tigers, UVA, Vanderbilt, Virginia Cavaliers, Wake Forest, Washington Huskies, Winning Picks, Wisconsin Badgers, Wolfpack | 11 Comments

NCAA Week 6 Football Picks: The Return of the Brinks Truck Bet – Load UP!!!!

Lets get down to business…..RPJ Syndicate is 19-14 on the season, we are up 13 betting units, we have never had a losing week and our money is where our mouth is. Can you hear the crisp sound of fresh hundies? We can!!!! We have three games for you this week and the Brinks Truck bet is back from a one week layoff.

Thursday, October 4, 2007

Game 1: Kentucky (+4) at South Carolina – This is the type of game we dream about. Kentucky is 4-0 against the spread (ATS) on this short season, they rush for more than 80 yards more per game than the Gamecocks, they convert 53.7% of their third down conversions versus 42% for the Cocks and they have a ball hawking defense that has taken the ball away 14 times for a +7 turnover ratio. The Cocks are minus 4 in the turnover ratio. We do not even think The Cocks should be favored in this one and are happy for the 4 points. I have nothing negative to say about Kentucky but the Gamecocks are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. So we think the game will be close, Kentucky will pound the run and wear down South Carolina by the second half to pull away and win this game. Kentucky all the way!!!!

Saturday, October 6, 2007

The BRINKS TRUCK bet….this is the bet where we bet 5 times our normal betting amount and we are 3-1 on the season with Brinks Truck picks.

Game 2: South Florida (-16.5) @ Florida Atlantic – This one will not be close and in the mascot battle a Bull will beat the piss out of an Owl any day of the week. South Florida is 3-0 ATS this season, runs for more on offense, converts more 3rd downs, gives up less rushing yards on defense, and its defense holds opponents to a lower third down conversion rate. In other words, the Owls will not be hooting after this one and will probably be declawed and have their beaks filed down. The one interesting stat is that the Owls are actually +12 in the turnover ratio game while South Florida is +8. Here are some other numbers to think about:

Bulls are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on Grass. Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite.

Owls are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss. Owls are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Owls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Owls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. Owls are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.

Load up on South Florida. This one is a no brainer!!!

Game 3: Nebraksa @ Missouri (-7) – This one screams Missouri across the board. Missouri rushes for more yards on defense, converts more third downs on offense, holds opponents to less yards rushing and holds offenses to less third down conversions than Nebraska. Throw in the fact that Missouri is +4 and Nebraksa is -2 in the turnover ratio and you have a clear favorite here. Even though Nebraska leads the all-time series 63-34-3, and posted a 34-20 victory last season. The Huskers are 27-18-1 at Missouri, but have not won there since a 36-3 rout in 2001. Keller has shows time and again that he crumbles in big games. He crumbled at Arizona St. and he crumbles for Nebraska in big games. So. Cal has gotten to him twice now. Cornhuskers are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Cornhuskers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. Cornhuskers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Cornhuskers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0. Cornhuskers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cornhuskers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Cornhuskers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Cornhuskers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. In other words…..Missouri wins this by more than 7 points!!!!

Feel free to post on our blog. We enjoy seeing your picks and we are happy to analyze any game for you. We looked at tons of games this weekend and came away with only three so we have a lot more information to share if you want it. Have fun and we will see you at the bank!!!

Flash and Runny

October 4, 2007 Posted by | BCS, Big East, Bulls, Cornhuskers, ESPN, Florida Atlantic, Football, Gambling, Gamecock, Kentucky, Kentucky Wildcats, Missouri, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Owls, SEC, South Carolina Gamecocks, South Florida, Tigers, USC, Wildcats, Winning Picks | 2 Comments