RPJ Betting Syndicate

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2008 NFL Week 5: Free Winning Picks and the sad end of Matt Millen

We had a nice week last week with a combined 6-1 record. Here is how we stand on the season:

RPJ $yndicate is 5-7
Flash is 3-1
Runny is 8-8

We started our NCAA season a little slow and now are on a roll and the NFL is starting to gear up as well. So lets kick off this party with some hot delicious Keyra Augustina ass…..

Hello Perfection!!!

Hello Perfection!!!

A little more to the left please....Pretty please!!!!!

A little more to the left please....Pretty please!!!!!

A true work of Art!!!!

A true work of Art!!!!

RPJ $yndicate picks

San Diego at Miami (+6.5)– Miami is already starting to show signs of The Parcells Plan. Bill is a football genius andhas turned around every single team he has gotten his hands on. This is not a tale of ATS numbersbecause it favors the Chargersin a big way with one exception…Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings. This is an interesting matchup and favors the Dolphins in a lot of stats that we look at. The Dolphins have a better running game, a better run defense andhave learned how to limit turnovers. San Diego has not looked good on the road. They had to come from behind against Denver and could have won andthey had to come from behind against the Raiders andwon. This does not bode well as a trend and Miami will be able to limit San Diego’s touches. We think Miami can keep this game close and we are debating a straight moneyline bet. We are not betting the moneyline yet but we think the Dolphins will certainly cover. Take the Fins and the points.

Atlanta at Carolina (-9.5)– We normally hate big spreads but we love betting against one dimensional teams on the road. Stop the run and you stop the Chiefs. Even the Raiders won in KC by shutting down LJ. Lets look at the ATS numbers:

Kansas City
Chiefs are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Chiefs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 5.
Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Carolina
Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 5.
Panthers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Panthers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Panthers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

We think this lines up well for Carolina and we would not be surprised to see a 20 point win. Take Carolina to cover!!!

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (-5)– I wish this line was -3.5 or less but I still think the Jags can win by a TD. Jacksonville really has gotten to Big Ben, sacking him 11 times the last two times they played and Big Ben has been sacked almost 4 times a game this year. Willie Parker is out, Mendenhall is out, Kendall Simmons is out, Casey Hampton is out and Brett Keisel is out. That is way too many outs for Pittsburgh. The ATS numbers:

Pittsburgh
Steelers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 5.
Steelers are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games in October.
Steelers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Steelers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.
Steelers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.
Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Jacksonville
Jaguars are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Jaguars are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 5.
Jaguars are 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
Jaguars are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Jaguars are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Jaguars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.

Head-to-Head
Home team is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 meetings.
Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Jacksonville.

I think the Steelers are facing too many injuries and are traveling to Jacksonville. Teams that play on Monday Night and then play on the road in their next game lose outright more than 70% of the times. I will take those odds and the ATS numbers. Jacksonville wins and covers!!!

Flash Flash Picks

Chicago at Detroit (+3.5)– This is a fascinating game but mostly it is a new beginning for the Detroit Lions. The Lions finally rid themselves of the WR happy Matt Millen. It was so fun to have Matt Millen around because that made Al Davis feel like his retarded decisions actually belonged in the NFL.

The ATS numbers:

Chicago
Bears are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.
Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week.
Bears are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on field turf.

Detroit
Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.
Lions are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

Head-to-Head
Underdog is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

I think the Lions get their first win of the season in this game. The fear is that the Bears will run up and down the field and that is a concern but I think that concern was addressed during Detroit’s bye week. Remember, the Lions are loaded at WR thanks to Matt Millen and they will rise to the occasion to honor their fallen comrade. Take the Lions and the points and if you have some extra scratch around throw a little down on the Moneyline.

Runny Picks

Tennessee @ Baltimore (+3): This game is a little tough to handicap, but I think the Titans cover. Tough giving any points to a Baltimore team at home. They are ridiculous on D. However, Flacco is not ready. The Steelers exposed him last week. The Titans have a better D and they will pressure Flacco just like the Steelers did in the 2nd half of their game last week. Plus, the Titans are just more balanced. It will be a close game-definitely a battle of great D’s, but the Titans pull out the cover. Take the Titans -3.

Colts @ Texans (+3): The Colts are banged-up and playing like it. Although they are coming off the bye this week, I don’t think it matters. Peyton is off and as great as he is, he won’t get on the right track until he gets more playing time. The Texans almost beat the Jags last week. They put-up points on a much better J’ville D. They will do the same this week. I love them getting points. Take the Texans +3.

Patriots @ 49ers (+3): Another home Dog. I like them, too. Pats are off the bye, but they have major problems. Cassel will be good (eventually), but the 49ers have a good D. They can keep this game close. Plus, the Pats have NO run defense. That is music to Frank Gore’s ears. He will have a huge game. Pats will win, but 49ers keep it close. Take the 49ers +3.

As always, good luck.

Runny & Flash

October 5, 2008 Posted by | Ass, Betting, Bill Parcells, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Colts, Detroit Lions, ESPN, Free NFL Divisional Round Picks, Free NFL Picks, Free NFL Wild Card Picks, Free Super Bowl Picks, Gambling, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Keyra Augustina, Matt Millen, Matt Schaub, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, NFL, NFL Picks, Pittsbourgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Sports, Thong, Winning Picks | 1 Comment

2008 NFL Week Four: Free Winning Picks and Chicks

Greetings folks. A decent, but not good, Week Three brought us back a little closer to respectability. However, we know we have a ton of work to do to right the ship. Our NFL season records are as follows: RPJ $yndicate is 3-7, Flash is 2-1 and Runny is 5-7. Still pretty bad, but we ain’t stopping!!!!

Well in keeping with tradition, when we blow we show more picks of hot chicks:

I have a spare hand if you need a replacement!

I have a spare hand if you need a replacement!

I just saw Transformers and I want to transform her panties into my face!

I just saw Transformers and I want to transform her panties into my face!

Here is what we like this week:

RPJ $yndicate Picks

Cardinals @ Jets (-1): The Cards looked awful last week against a Skins team that we think is pretty overrated. The Jets were just as bad against a hungry Chargers team on Monday night. What will give? The key to his game is the Cards and their road woes. They are terrible on the road. They have studs on offense and a decent D. There is no reason they should be Dogs in this game (or their last). Also, look at these facts: Jets are 11-1 ATS as home favorites vs. opponents that are .600 or better and 12-2 ATS off of Monday Night games. Nuff said. Take the Jets -1.

Falcons @ Panthers (-6.5): Don’t be fooled by the Falcons. Although they are 2-1, their two wins were against terrible teams (Lions and Chiefs). Their sole loss was a beatdown against the Bucs. The Panthers are more like the Bucs than the Lions and Chiefs. They will win, and when they win at home they are 44-8 ATS. Also, never take rookie QBs on the road. Take the Panthers -6.5.

Runny Picks

Chargers @ Raiders (+7.5): This pick pains me because I like Lane Kiffin and I think the Raiders are better than they get credit for being. I just don’t think they have enough this week, despite the fact that the Chargers are traveling off of Monday Night (if you are a reader of our blog, you’ll understand the reference and stat). Facts: Raiders are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 at home against the Chargers. This is a lot of points, but Rivers is the best QB in the league right now. Take the Chargers -7.5.

49ers @ Saints (-4): The Niners are off of a dominating win last week at home. They are young and their D seems to be on the right track. However, I am not sold on J.T. O’Sullivan. Plus, they re going on the road against a Saints team that can do some damage on offense. Facts: Niners are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against the Saints and under Nolan, the Niners are 2-13 SU and 4-11 ATS away against non-division teams. I love the Saints in this. Take the Saints -4.

Bills @ Rams (+8): The Rams are lost and Linehan has lost this team. Players are openly stating that they don’t want to play for him and Trent Green is getting the start this week. Terrible. The Bills are loaded and are playing well. Facts: Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Bills and 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS against inning teams under Linehan. This will be bloody. Take the Bills -8.

Flash Flash Picks

I should be 3-0 and I am not bitter about it or anything. I love the backdoor but I hate backdoor covers.

Only one pick for me this week and that is Redskins (+11) at Dallas. This is too many points and I live the ATS numbers.

Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
Redskins are 21-8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC East.

Head-to-Head
Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Underdog is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 meetings.

I do not think the Skins will win but I think they are playing better and can keep this within ten points. Take the Skins with the points!

As always, good luck with your picks.

Runny & Flash

September 28, 2008 Posted by | Adrian Peterson, Arizona Cardinals, Ass, Atlanta Falcons, Bears, Belichick, Bengals, Betting, Bills, Brett Favre, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Buffalo Bills, Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Chad Pennington, Chargers, Chicago Bears, Chiefs, Cleveland Browns, Colin Cowherd, Colts, Cowboys, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Detroit, Detroit Lions, Dolphins, Eagles, Eric Mangini, ESPN, Falcons, Football, Free NFL Divisional Round Picks, Free NFL Picks, Free NFL Wild Card Picks, Free Super Bowl Picks, Gambling, Giants, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jaguars, Jets, Kansas City, Kansas City Chiefs, Katherine Heigl, Lane Kifin, Lions, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Megan Fox, Miami, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football Picks, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York, New York Giants, New York Jets, NFL, NFL Championship Game, NFL Picks, NY Giants, NY Jets, Oakland Raiders, Panthers, Patriots, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh Steelers, Raiders, Rams, Randy Moss, Ravens, Redskins, Reggie Bush, Roger Goodell, Saints, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seahawks, Seattle, Sports, St. Louis, Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee, Texans, Thong, Titans, Tom brady, Tom Coughlin, Tony Romo, Vegas, Washington Redskins, Winning Picks | 2 Comments

NFL WEEK 1 2008 PICKS

Greetings folks. Disappointing start with Thursday’s game. We learned a lot from that game though and we will exploit it later in the season. Runny is 0-1 on the NFL so far, but we like a lot of games on the first Sunday. Again, we will have RPJ picks and our individual takes. Here it goes:

RPJ PICKS (0-0 on the Season)

Cowboys -5.5 @ Browns: The Cowboys covered every weekend in September last year. They are stacked again this year on both sides of the ball. However, the Browns are, too. They made huge improvements on their D in the offseason, and although they looked terrible in the pre-season, they should be a legit contender this season. This is a lot of points to give a team like the Browns at home, which is begging you to take them. Herein lies the Vegas trap. This line has gone up all week. Don’t fall for it. Take the Boys-5.5.

Texans @ Steelers -7: The Steelers are stacked this year and the Texans are banged-up. They are just not as good as the Steelers right now. We like Matt Schaub and Mario Williams. Just not enough. We love the Steelers at home to open their season. Take the Steelers -7.

Bears @ Colts-9.5: We’ve watched the Bears pretty closely this pre-season, more so than most other teams. Take our word for it, they are a MESS on the offensive side of the ball. With the exception of Hester, they have absolutely no playmakers on offense. That does not bode well for them going into Indy. They need to score points to beat them, and the Bears just don’t have the personnel. Plus, the Bears D is severely overrated-maybe the most overrated unit is the NFL. Indy wins this game by at least 17. We don’t care about Manning’s knee. Take the Colts -9.5.

Jets @ Fins+3: Finally the Fins have some stability in the front office and at QB. This will be a great game. So many side stories: Favre’s debut in a uniform other than Green Bays; Pennington gets a revenge chance against the team that gave him a Cleveland Steamer; the Tuna’s 2008 debut. All great stuff. We like the Fins in this one because of the points, and we believe they are the better team. They will surprise everyone with how well they will run the ball this year. We think Ted Ginn finally starts showing why he was a first round pick. For the Jets, we think their D is good, but Favre is way overrated. This will be a close game. We like the points. Take the Fins at home +3.

Jags -3 @ Titans: This is our favorite game of the week. Load-up on this one if you can. We think the Jags will make it to the AFC Championship game this year. They are loaded on both sides of the field. The Titans are terrible. Vince Young has mentally checked-out and he has no playmakers to help him. Jags may shut them out. It will be ugly. We don’t care that the Titans usually play the Jags tough and cover. Take the Jags -3.

RUNNY PICKS (0-1 on the Season)

Lions -3 @ Falcons: The Falcons made some good moves in the offseason drafting Ryan and signing Michael Turner. They are going in the right direction, but it will take another year to get out of Vick’s debacle shadow. The Lions are just much better than they are this year right now. I think this line is low because Vegas is judging the Lions on the end of the year meltdown last year. The Lions have playmakers and will score some points. I don’t think Ryan is ready to keep up. Take the Lions -3.

Chiefs @ Pats -15.5: This is a ton of points and the Pats have been extremely cold when it comes to covering. However, the Chiefs are terrible and will not score points. Their D is good, but they will play mostly nickle against the Pats due to the passing attempts. When they do, 3 of their DB’s will be rookies. Brady will crush this. They may not run the ball more than 10 times in this game. Pats win in a blowout. Take the Pats-15.5.

Flash Flash Picks (0-0)
Nothing today but one game for sure on tap Monday night.

Check back with us for Monday Night’s games. We have picks for both games.

As always, good luck with your picks.

Runny and Flash

September 7, 2008 Posted by | Atlanta Falcons, Bears, Betting, Brett Favre, Browns, Chad Pennington, Chicago Bears, Chris Redman, Cleveland Browns, Colts, Cowboys, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit, Detroit Lions, Dolphins, Eric Mangini, Falcons, Football, Free NFL Divisional Round Picks, Free NFL Picks, Free NFL Wild Card Picks, Free Super Bowl Picks, Gambling, Green Bay Packers, Houston, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jaguars, Lions, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Miami, Miami Dolphins, Michael Vick, Monday Night Football Picks, New England Patriots, New York Jets, NFL, NFL Picks, Packers, Patriots, Peyton Manning, Pittsbourgh Steelers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Randy Moss, Sports, Tom brady, Vegas, Vick, Winning Picks | 1 Comment

NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF PICKS: WEEKEND OF THE ‘DOG PART 2

We were one missed field goal from going 2-0 on Saturday’s games. Settled for 1-1 to bring our playoff record to 1-5. Terrible, but it does feel good to get our first win. Now on to Sunday’s games:

Chargers @ Colts -10: The Colts kick-off their post season at home and rested. With the exception of Dwight Freeney, they are completely healthy. The Chargers, on the other hand, will likely be without one of their offensive studs-Antonio Gates. Even if Gates plays, he will be limited. This is a HUGE loss for the Chargers. HUGE.

We think the Colts roll big in this game. The reason is Philip Rivers. He is not a good QB. He has always struggled in the playoffs, and despite their win last week against the Titans, Rivers looked bad. The Colts are much better than the Titans.  Some will argue that this is way too many points to give the Chargers-they have a solid D and any team with LT has a chance to keep a game close. No way. Not this Sunday. These teams played in November with the Chargers squeaking out a 23-21 win. However, that game was in San Diego and Manning had the worse game of his career. Also, the Chargers managed only ONE TD by their offense. ONE, despite picking Manning off 6 TIMES!! The other two TDs were on returns by Darren Sproles. That won’t happen again in this game. The Colts have had 2 weeks off and they will be ready. Look for a HUGE beatdown. Take the Colts -10.

Giants @ Cowboys -7: The super hot Giants head back to Big D for the third time this year. They haven’t won yet, losing both match-ups by a combined total of 21 points. However, this is a much better Giants team. They are running the ball extremely well and Eli looks like his brother. And, they have a new weapon in Ahmad Bradshaw. Things are looking good for the Giants in this game. They are peaking while the Boys are struggling.

The Cowboys have not been a good team as of late. We think that is a product of them pretty much phoning in their season once they clinched their playoff spot and home field. Don’t get us wrong, 13-3 is no fluke, but the Boys have a lot of flaws. They are terrible is pass coverage and they are extremely undisciplined. They will make penalties hat will extend drives for the Giants. Plus, the huge question mark with TO will hinder their entire offense. What will give?

We have gone back and forth all week on this one, but we think in the end the Boys will cover. We have three reasons for this pick:

1). The Giants will be without Shockey. This is a bigger loss than Dallas having no/a limited TO. Even though Eli is playing really well without Shockey now, it will catch up to him in this game. First because the Boys will have their starting corners (Newman and Henry) for the first time all year. They won’t stop Toomer and Plaxico, but they will slow them down, forcing Eli to go to his TE. Kevin Boss is no Shockey. Plus, the Giants will miss Shockey’s run blocking in this one.

2). The Cowboys O-line is MASSIVE. They are road graders and they healthy for the first time in a month. They will hammer the Giants D line and the Boys will be able to run. By the fourth quarter, it will catch-up to them and Marion Barber will be racking-up stats. They have a sour taste in their mouth from their terrible perfromace in Washington to end the regular season. Along with Barber, look for Julius Jones to have a good game, too.

3).  The Giants secondary is injured and not that good. It is looking like TO will play. Not to state the obvious, but simply putting TO on the field makes a HUGE difference. Even at 80%. Or even 60%. TO is a play maker and requires constant attention by defensive coordinators. He can handle the Giants corners. Also, the addition of Terry Glenn will be a HUGE positive for the Cowboys. Putting him in the slot will create huge mismatches for the Giants and Jason Garrett is licking his chops. When the Cowboys go to their 3 receiver sets, lookout!!! It will also free-up the running game.

We think the Boys cover. We thing it will be a close cover, but they will do it. The Giants will be able to score, so it will be high scoring. Take the Cowboys -7.

Good luck!

Runny & Flash

January 13, 2008 Posted by | Dallas Cowboys, Free NFL Divisional Round Picks, Free NFL Picks, Free NFL Wild Card Picks, Indianapolis Colts, New York Giants, NFL, NFL Picks, San Diego Chargers | 4 Comments

NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF PICKS: WEEKEND OF THE ‘DOG-DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE!!!!!

Greetings!! The 2nd round of the playoffs kicks off this afternoon. This weekend has some GREAT match-ups. We are lovin’ this!!! Let’s start with the stats: for the regular season, we held a 62-60-1 record and for the playoffs, we are 0-4. We now both those records are bad and not worth posting. It is not stopping us though because we know what lies ahead. This is definitely the weekend of the underdog. ALL of these lines scream for you to take every ‘dog. Vegas is begging you to do it-DON’T!!!! Here is our take on the Divisional Round:

Seahawks @ Packers -7.5: The Seahawks return to Lambeau in the playoffs for the first time since the infamous OT claim “We want the ball and we are gonna score” line. That game did not end well for the Seahawks. Will this one?

The keys to answer that question lie with the defenses for both teams and the incredible home field advantage the Packers have in this game. Can the Seahawks overcome Lambeau and the Packers D? We don’t think so.

No doubt the Packers are clearly the  better team. Vegas thinks so, which is really all that matters. They are rested and at home. They have an incredible D line and they are able to generate sacks without the help of their linebackers (Packers had 35 sacks on the season-30.5 came from D linemen). The Seahawks were not as good (45 teams sacks-29 by D linemen). This is a tremendous advantage. This means that the Packers can pressure the QB without bringing extra defenders-defenders that can drop back in pass coverage. This does not bode well for a Seahawks offense that is already banged-up. The Packers secondary will get a couple picks. Aaron Kampman will have a HUGE game.

What about Favre against the Seahawks D? During the regular season, the Seahawks were ranked 15th in the NFL. Last week, they nearly lost to Todd Collins (the game was MUCH closer than the score). Bret Favre is not Todd Collins. He will be able to move the ball. The Packers will be able to run all day. We LOVE the Packers in this game. Go heavy. We think they win by 10. Take the Packer -7.5.

Jags @ Pats -13: This is the game everyone is talking about. We have to admit that back as early as week 6, we thought if the Jags got the Pats in the playoffs they could beat them. They are a physical team with an OUTSTANDING running game. Looking at the games in which the Pats nearly lost, it was due to solid running and very physical defensive play. That is what most of the betting public thinks, too.

Don’t believe the hype!! We love the Jags and hate the Pats, so this pick is hurting us. However, look at the Steelers game last week. The Jags D lost an 18 points lead in the 2nd half. Garrard came back down to earth. We saw a Jags team that could not blitz effectively (we saw them blitz 3 times-every time they did, the Steelers beat them for a TD). You cannot beat the Pats without pressuring Brady. Can’t happen.

The Jags will use Rashean Mathis (and help) to negate Moss. The last team that took that approach and wasn’t able to blitz were the Skins. That game ended 52-7. Also, don’t forget that the Jags also have a rookie (though a good one) playing FS. For all the talk that the Pats don’t have a good D and cannot stop the run, the Pats gave up only 98.1 yards per game on the ground. Not great, but not bad either. They have had 13 days to prepare. They will be ready.

We don’t think this game is close. We think the Pats will get up by 14 early and keep pouring it on. Once they do, the Jags running game will be out the window. We think the Pats win by 20. Take the Pats -13.

Good luck! A post for tomorrow’s games will be out later tonight.

Runny & Flash

January 12, 2008 Posted by | Free NFL Divisional Round Picks, Free NFL Picks, Free NFL Wild Card Picks, Green Bay Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars, New England Patriots, NFL, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Seattle | 2 Comments

NFL PLAYOFF PICKS: WILD CARD WEEKEND (PART TWO)

The last two games on tap for Wild Car Weekend pit the Giants against the Bucs and the Titans in San Diego against the Chargers. These two games are our favorites so far. We love the lines and the way Vegas has moved the lines all week!! Beware of the trap this time!! Remember, VEGAS KNOWS!!! Here is our take on each:

Giants @ Buccaneers -3: After nearly ending the Pats’ run at perfection last week, the Giants are definately the sexy pick in this one. Eli looked a lot like his big bro and Osi and Strahan played liked men possessed. On the other hand, the Buccaners have been extremely inconsistent as of late-losing their last two to the 49ers and Panthers. Yet, they are the favorites at home.

On paper, the teams are pretty even. The Giants have a a better offense, but the Bucs have a better D. Makes it tough to get an angle with the stats. How about the ATS numbers? Here you go:

GIANTS:

  • Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
  • Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
  • Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
  • Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Giants are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
  • Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
  • Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Giants are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Giants are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
  • Giants are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
  • Giants are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.
  • BUCS:

  • Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
  • Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
  • Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
  • Buccaneers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
  • Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
  • Buccaneers are 14-6-2 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Buccaneers are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Buccaneers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
  • Buccaneers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0.
  • The ATS numbers are pretty close, too, with maybe a slight edge towards the Giants. What gives?

    If you read our stuff, you know the answer to that question….yeap…VEGAS KNOWS. We can’t say that enough. This line opened with the Bucs being only 1 point favorites. However, as the week progressed, most of the money went towards the Giants. In particular, (at the time of this post) nearly 60% of the money is on the Giants to cover and OVER 90% of the money is on them to win outright!! OVER 90% AND THE LINE STILL INCREASED!!! We’ve seen this many times before. This is a trap!! Vegas wants you to keep hammering the Giants. Don’t do it!!

    Vegas knows this game will come down to defense and QB play. As mentioned above, the Bucs have good advantage on D, so they win that match-up. In regards to the QB play, Eli is terrible. He looked good last week against a Pats D that is mediocre, at best. The Bucs D is much better. Much better. Plax won’t be open as much as he was last week. Watch for Ronde Barber to have a good game. We think the Bucs win by double digits. Take the Bucs -3.

    Titans +10 @ Chargers: The Titans surprised us by making the playoffs this year. We admit that we are not fans on Vince Young, but we love the way the Titans play. Despite winning their division with a 11-5 record, the Chargers have had a disappointing season. This team was predicted to win 15 games this year. However, they are rolling right now and LT is amazing. He pretty much saved Norv Turner his job.

    The sexy pick in this game is the Chargers. No one is giving the Titans a chance. At the time of this post, 79% of the money is on the Chargers to cover the spread an nearly all the analysis on TV is about how much the Chargers will roll. After all, the Titans are injured. They have no offensive threats (Vince Young is a game time decision and Roydell Williams is out). The Chargers have a TON of offensive weapons and their D plays lights out.

    However, we are looking past this. On any given Sunday, any team can beat any team. We know Jeff Fisher is telling his team that and he is a master motivator. We also think he is an infinitely better coach than Norv Turner. Fisher always finds away to get it done with no help. Even with his Super Bowl team that nearly beat the then unstoppable Rams, he really had no (We don’t think Eddie George was anywhere near as good as LT) weapons. He still gets it done.

    We think this game will come down to coaching and QB play. We already told you how we feel about the coaches. The key will be the QBs. We think Philip Rivers is a joke and his history (although brief) shows he in not a good playoff QB. He will turn the ball over. Look for Kyle Vanden Bosch and Albert Haynesworth to have big games for the Titans. LT will go nuts for the Chargers. Ultimately, we think the massive injuries the Titans have will slow them down and cost them the game, but we think they will keep it close. Keep in mind that the Titans nearly beat them last month. We love the 10 points. Take the Titans +10.

    January 6, 2008 Posted by | Eli Manning, Free NFL Picks, Free NFL Wild Card Picks, New England Patriots, NFL, NFL Picks, Patriots, San Diego Chargers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee, Titans | 6 Comments

    NFL PLAYOFF PICKS: WILD CARDS ARE IN THE WEEKEND (PART ONE)!!!!

    Just as the NFL regular season and the college football season rolls to an end, the glorious tournament know as the NFL Playoffs kicks right into gear!!! We love this time of year! Teams sell out in last ditch efforts to squeak into the post season (i.e., the Skins and Titans) while others teams dominate from wire-to-wire and coast in (i.e., the Pats and Boys). Whatever team tickles your fancy, there is plenty of drama and info that needs to go into the handicapping. Luckily for you, that is why we are here! Our season record for the regular season stands at 62-60-1. Very pedestrian and very much like the teams mentioned above who squeaked in. However, like the Skins and Titans, we are in and ready to go. Let the games begin!!!

    Here are our take on the Wild Card games:

    Skins +3.5 @ Seahawks: The Skins travel to Seattle to kick-off the Wild Card weekend. The Skins have undoubtedly rallied around their fallen teammate and have played some inspired football as of late. A few weeks ago, probably everyone outside of the DC area would have punched you in the liver if you told them the Skins would make the playoffs. They are playing lights out right now. How about Todd Collins?!?!?! If you would have told the same person that he would be the QB leading the charge, I’m sure you would have earned yourself and punch in the neck, too. All punches aside, the Skins are a force to be reckoned with right now.

    The Skins have covered and won outright their last 4 games. Two of those games were on the road against their hated NFC East rival NY Giants and a super hot (at the time) Vikings team. Looking past those games, the Skins lost quite a few (lost their previous 5 out 0f 6). Included in those games was the Decimation Bowl where the Pats hung 52 on them. That Pats game aside, the Skins average margin of loss in those games was only 5 points. Not too shabby.

    The Seahawks have stumbled as of late. They lost a shootout against a terrible Falcons team in Week 17, granted the Seahawks had nothing to win or lose in that game. However, they have a great passing game and have a HUGE homefield advantage. It is an advantage that cannot be overlooked.

    Right now, our analysis calls this a toss-up. Each team has advantages. Here are some ATS numbers for you:

    SKINS:

  • Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
  • Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.
  • Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
  • Redskins are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
  • Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
  • Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in January.
  • Redskins are 19-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • ‘HAWKS:

  • Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
  • Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
  • Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
  • Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on field turf.
  • Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
  • Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
  • Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
  • Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
  • Both teams have impressive ATS numbers. Very impressive. So, what gives?

    The key is to first ask THE question. If you read our stuff, you will know what we are talking about. Vegas set this line at 3.5. it opened at -5, but has settled down to -3.5. The line dropped due to the heavy action on the Skins money line. Typically, home field advantage is worth about 3 points. So, for a line at -5 it typically means that Vegas thinks Seattle is only a 2 point better team if this was on a neutral field. For these two teams, we agree. We don’t think there are any traps in this game.

    To get our winner, we look to the match-ups. Statistically, the teams are pretty close in nearly every category. The key match-up will be the Hawks passing attack against the Skins secondary. No doubt the Skins will shut down the Hawks run. They will have to pass to win. This means it will come down to Hasslebeck against Landry, Springs, Smoot and Dougty. We think the Skins are up to the challenge. Without the running game, the Skins secondary will eat the Hawks alive.

    We also think the Skins are playing out of their minds right now and are not happy with just making the playoffs. They are hungry and they are playing for #21. Plus, they played in the NFC East which is a MUCH tougher division than the NFC West. Not even close. So, even-though the stats are similar, they went about completely different ways of getting them. The Skins played the two other playoff teams twice (Boys and Giants) as well as the Eagles. The Hawks played the 49ers twice. Terrible.

     We think the Skins cover and win outright. We love the points. Take the Skins +3.5.

    Jags -2.5 @ Steelers: The Jags have been amazing!! It is about time Fred Taylor got some credit!!! They roll into the ‘Burgh for the 2nd time in a month to face the Steelers. In their last meeting, the Jags pulled off the upset, winning 29-22. No doubt the Steelers are awesome at home, however, the Jags are no fluke. Neither was their win.

    Here are some ATS numbers for you:

    JAGS:

    JAC are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.

  • JAC are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • STEELERS: 

  • PIT are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • HEAD-TO-HEAD:

    Home team is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 meetings.

    Pretty good stats for the Steelers. However, we just think the Jags roll again. The Steelers are banged-up, but the Jags just punish teams. We also think the Jags QB will play better and is less apt to make mistakes. Turnovers will be key in this game and we think the Jags will win this battle. Take the Jags -2.5.

    Good luck!

    Runny & Flash

    January 5, 2008 Posted by | Free NFL Picks, Free NFL Wild Card Picks, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jaguars, NFL, NFL Picks, Pittsburgh Steelers, Seahawks, Seattle | 2 Comments