RPJ Betting Syndicate

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2008 NFL Week Four: Free Winning Picks and Chicks

Greetings folks. A decent, but not good, Week Three brought us back a little closer to respectability. However, we know we have a ton of work to do to right the ship. Our NFL season records are as follows: RPJ $yndicate is 3-7, Flash is 2-1 and Runny is 5-7. Still pretty bad, but we ain’t stopping!!!!

Well in keeping with tradition, when we blow we show more picks of hot chicks:

I have a spare hand if you need a replacement!

I have a spare hand if you need a replacement!

I just saw Transformers and I want to transform her panties into my face!

I just saw Transformers and I want to transform her panties into my face!

Here is what we like this week:

RPJ $yndicate Picks

Cardinals @ Jets (-1): The Cards looked awful last week against a Skins team that we think is pretty overrated. The Jets were just as bad against a hungry Chargers team on Monday night. What will give? The key to his game is the Cards and their road woes. They are terrible on the road. They have studs on offense and a decent D. There is no reason they should be Dogs in this game (or their last). Also, look at these facts: Jets are 11-1 ATS as home favorites vs. opponents that are .600 or better and 12-2 ATS off of Monday Night games. Nuff said. Take the Jets -1.

Falcons @ Panthers (-6.5): Don’t be fooled by the Falcons. Although they are 2-1, their two wins were against terrible teams (Lions and Chiefs). Their sole loss was a beatdown against the Bucs. The Panthers are more like the Bucs than the Lions and Chiefs. They will win, and when they win at home they are 44-8 ATS. Also, never take rookie QBs on the road. Take the Panthers -6.5.

Runny Picks

Chargers @ Raiders (+7.5): This pick pains me because I like Lane Kiffin and I think the Raiders are better than they get credit for being. I just don’t think they have enough this week, despite the fact that the Chargers are traveling off of Monday Night (if you are a reader of our blog, you’ll understand the reference and stat). Facts: Raiders are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 at home against the Chargers. This is a lot of points, but Rivers is the best QB in the league right now. Take the Chargers -7.5.

49ers @ Saints (-4): The Niners are off of a dominating win last week at home. They are young and their D seems to be on the right track. However, I am not sold on J.T. O’Sullivan. Plus, they re going on the road against a Saints team that can do some damage on offense. Facts: Niners are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against the Saints and under Nolan, the Niners are 2-13 SU and 4-11 ATS away against non-division teams. I love the Saints in this. Take the Saints -4.

Bills @ Rams (+8): The Rams are lost and Linehan has lost this team. Players are openly stating that they don’t want to play for him and Trent Green is getting the start this week. Terrible. The Bills are loaded and are playing well. Facts: Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Bills and 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS against inning teams under Linehan. This will be bloody. Take the Bills -8.

Flash Flash Picks

I should be 3-0 and I am not bitter about it or anything. I love the backdoor but I hate backdoor covers.

Only one pick for me this week and that is Redskins (+11) at Dallas. This is too many points and I live the ATS numbers.

Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
Redskins are 21-8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC East.

Head-to-Head
Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Underdog is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 meetings.

I do not think the Skins will win but I think they are playing better and can keep this within ten points. Take the Skins with the points!

As always, good luck with your picks.

Runny & Flash

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September 28, 2008 Posted by | Adrian Peterson, Arizona Cardinals, Ass, Atlanta Falcons, Bears, Belichick, Bengals, Betting, Bills, Brett Favre, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Buffalo Bills, Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Chad Pennington, Chargers, Chicago Bears, Chiefs, Cleveland Browns, Colin Cowherd, Colts, Cowboys, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Detroit, Detroit Lions, Dolphins, Eagles, Eric Mangini, ESPN, Falcons, Football, Free NFL Divisional Round Picks, Free NFL Picks, Free NFL Wild Card Picks, Free Super Bowl Picks, Gambling, Giants, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jaguars, Jets, Kansas City, Kansas City Chiefs, Katherine Heigl, Lane Kifin, Lions, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Megan Fox, Miami, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football Picks, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York, New York Giants, New York Jets, NFL, NFL Championship Game, NFL Picks, NY Giants, NY Jets, Oakland Raiders, Panthers, Patriots, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh Steelers, Raiders, Rams, Randy Moss, Ravens, Redskins, Reggie Bush, Roger Goodell, Saints, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seahawks, Seattle, Sports, St. Louis, Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee, Texans, Thong, Titans, Tom brady, Tom Coughlin, Tony Romo, Vegas, Washington Redskins, Winning Picks | 2 Comments

NFL PICKS WEEK 9: WEEK 9 IS FINE!!!!

Greetings. After the 5-0 weekend last week, we brought our record to 20-11-2. That is damn fine as we head into week 9. We look to continue our undefeated run with some more locks today. Here we go:

Cowboys -3 @ Eagles: The Cowboys roll into Philly looking to avenge two straight beatdwons at the hands of the Eagles. The Eagles head back home after a solid win in Minnesota amidst the turmoil of Andy Reid and his family crisis (Andy, take a leave of absence. Focus on your kids and family. Life is too short to worry about a team where the fans chant “Bill Cower” in the stands of your home games all the while your kids are falling apart. It is not a sign of weakness to resign. Refusing to step down is a sign of arrogance and stupidity. That is just our two cents..). The Boys are coming off the bye. They are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 November games. The Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 9. The Boys will win easily. Look for TO to have a big game. Take the Cowboys -3.

Redskins -3.5 @ Jets: The Jets finally pulled the trigger on Pennigton and will start Kellen Clemens this week. We agree with this move. The Jets aren’t going to the playoffs this year. They should look to their future. Clemens has a gun and it is worth the look. That said, they are still pretty bad. Their team has been decimated by injuries. The Skins are fresh off the mother of all beatdowns last week from New England. They will rebound. They have a solid D that is good enough to hold down the Jets O. The Jets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a winning record. Take the Skins -3.5.

49ers +3.5 @ Falcons: Both these teams are a mess. This game cracks us up!!! The 49ers roll into town probably with Alex Smith back. He is no Joe Montana, but he is probably as good as Joey Harrington. The 49ers have a better D. Here are some other tidbits: 49ers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 head-to-head meetings; the underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Take the points in this one (we think the 49ers win outright anway). Take the 49ers +3.5.

Chargers -7 @ Vikings: Chargers are rollin’ now. The Vikings have the NFL’s best back in Adrian Peterson. However, manning the Vikings helm is Brad Childress. He is a terrible play caller (single-handedly cost them the Cowboys game). The Chargers D will be all over Jackson/Holcomb. They can stop Peterson. This is  alot of points to give a home team, but they can cover. Take the Chargers -7.

Ravens +9 @ Steelers: The Ravens have not played well, but they are coming off the bye. They will be getting players back from the injury report. The Steelers have been up and down all season. One week they look like the Patriots. The next they get destroyed. Most of those bad games have come on the road. This week they are at home. The AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers are unbeaten at Heinz Field this season and have not lost a Monday night game at home in more than 16 years. They will be looking to avenge two beatdwons last season at the hands of the Ravens. They will win this game, but 9 points is too many to give to a division rival coming off the bye. Especially when that rival is a veteran team. Take the points. Take the Ravens +9.

Jags @ Saints -3: The Saints have won 3 straight and look to finally get to .500 on the season. They are at home this week where they have not been good ATS (7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games). They also have not covered (2-8 ATS in their last 10 overall).  The Jags held off a late surge by the Bucks last weekend and will throw Quinn Gray out there for his 2nd start. The Jags have a jacked D and will try to pound the Saints with the run. The Saints will counter with stacking the line and make Gray beat them. He won’t. The Saints will cover. Take the Saints -3.

Packers +2.5 @ Chiefs: The Chiefs surprised us this year, but we are not convinced they are as good as their record says. Favre is hot and he has never beat the Chiefs. It will change this week. Pack wins outright. Take the Packers +2.5.

Patriots @ Colts +5.5: Here we go!! Everyone has been asking us our take on this game. Definately the biggest game of the year to date and is probably a preview of the AFC Championship. The Pats have looked unstoppable all season. The Colts have been very impressive, too. Harrison is listed as questionable, but we think he will play. It is tough to find and edge in this game. Both teams have outstanding QB’s. Both D’s are not great, but not bad either. Here is the thing about this though-the Patriots have played a MUCH easier schedule. Their only challenge came against the Cowboys. The Cowboys ultimately lost that game, but did have a lead in the 2nd half. No other team has done that. The rest of their schedule has been a cake walk. On the other hand, the Colts have played some tough teams and still have been damn impressive. They avenged a embarassing loss last year to the Jags.  We like the Colts strength of schedule. We like them at home. We like that the media is giving them little chances of winning. We think the Pats will ultimately win, but it will be close. The Colts will cover. Take the Colts +5.5.

There you go. 8 locks!!!!! Good luck with you picks.

Runny & Flash

November 4, 2007 Posted by | 49ers, Adrian Peterson, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Chad Pennington, Chargers, Cowboys, Dallas Cowboys, Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jaguars, Jets, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York, NFL, NFL Picks, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh Steelers, Quinn Gray, Vikings | Leave a comment

NFL WEEK 8 PICKS: Lock ‘Em Up

We are looking for a rebound after a 2-2 Week 7. Our record to date is a pedestrian 15-11-2. No better time than Week 8 to lock ’em up and get on the right track. That said, here’s who we like:

Colts -7 @ Panthers: Back-to-back road games for the Colts on the short week. The Colts admitted that they don’t know the Panthers too well (last played is 2003). Marvin Harrison is listed as a game time decision. This should translate into a Panthers cover. However, the last time we checked the Colts still had Manning and the Panthers are starting Vinny Testaverde. We love us some Vinny, but not this week. The Panthers are just too banged-up and the Colts just have too many weapons. Take the Colts -7.

Steelers -4 @ Bengals: The Steelers have been terrible ATS on the road. However, they have a great opportunity to right their ship this week in Cinncy against the Bungles. The Bungles are a joke. The Steelers scored a lot of points last week against a solid Broncos D in Mile High. They may score 10,000 against the Bungles. Look for a high scoring game. Take the Steelers -4.

Bills +3 @ Jets: This is our favorite game of the week. The Bills are scrappers. They will make it 2 in a row this week. Take the Bills +3.

Texans @ Chargers -9: This a lot of points to give/get. The Chargers will be playing at home in front of the terrible back drop of the wild fires that have terrorized SoCal. We are with them. It will be a great win for their fans. Take the Chargers -9.

Saints -2.5 @ 49ers: We hate the Saints. They have screwed us this year more than any other team. They are just too good to be this bad. The 49ers still have not shown improvement. As much as we hate to do it, we are rollin’ with the Ain’ts again. Take the Saints -2.5.

 There you go-5 locks for the week. Good luck with your picks.

 Runny & Flash

October 28, 2007 Posted by | 49ers, Bengals, Bills, Broncos, Chargers, Colts, Jets, Panthers, Peyton Manning, Saints, Steelers, Texans, Vinny Testaverde | 2 Comments

NFL WEEK 5 PICKS: WE AIN’T NO JOKE

4-0 last weekend. That is just where we know we should be every week. We are done messing around. In honor of week 5, we are giving you 5 beatdwon locks for this week. Here you go:

 Chargers +1/Pick ’em @ Broncos: Chargers are a mess. Biggest flop in sports this year (except for the Yankees-F the bugs and they are sallies for letting them get in their heads). They have too much talent not to turn it around. This is a must win (eventhough we say that knowing that has been said for all their games since week 2). If they lose to the Broncos, Norv will be fired and LT will probably stab Rivers (and maybe rightfully so). Broncos are highly overrated. Even at home. The weather should be fine in Mile High. Check your lines-we’ve seen this at Chargers +1 and pick ’em. It will be ugly, but the Chargers win outright. Other tidbits: Broncos are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games and the same in their last 11 against the AFC; Chargers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games in October.  Take the Chargers +1/Pick ‘Em.

Ravens @ 49ers +3.5: We love home dogs. We also love that Alex Smith is not playing. Dilfer is a solid veteran QB. He can’t take a team to the promissed land again, but he can be good for one game. The Ravens offense is a joke and their is a chance that Mason will not be playing. If Boller plays, they will be even worse. Even with McNair, the 9ers can still cover. We love the 9ers and the points. Take the 49ers +3.5.

Boys -10 @ Bills: This game has look ahead to next week all over it. Dallas can easily slip here looking at the Pats in week 6. We don’t think they will. Their D is too good and T.O. LOVES the Monday night spot light. They will be professional and win by two TDs. Take the Boys -10.

Fins + 5 @ Texans: This game screams beatdown. The Fins cannot stop anyone from running and the Texans will do just that all day. However, this is a must win for the Fins. Now way they want to start the season 0-5. They may do that anyway, but it should be a closer game than 5 points. Texans should be without Green and Johnson. Schaub is a little banged-up. We like the Fins to cover. Take the Fins +5.

Panthers @ Saints -3: Are these the Ain’ts or the Saints?!?!?! They have been almost as disappointing as the Chargers this year. They looked TERRIBLE two Mondays ago. Can they go 0-4?!?! Possibly, but they just have too much talent to do that. Ignore the fact that the road team is 11-0 ATS in their last 11 head-to-head meetings (although that is pretty hard to ignore). The Saints are coming off the bye and the Panthers are starting David Carr. A David Carr lead team will not win. Especially given that he has a super ceezey mustache and greasy hair now. Bet against the hair and stache. Take the Saints -3.

Take them to the bank. Good luck with your picks.

 Runny & Flash

October 6, 2007 Posted by | 49ers, Betting, Bills, Broncos, Chargers, Cowboys, Dolphins, Football, Gambling, Matt Schaub, Miami, NFL, NFL Picks, Panthers, Ravens, Saints, Sports, Winning Picks | 4 Comments

NFL Week 2 Picks: Back-Up the Brinks Trucks!!!!

Bring on week 2!!!! Had a rough start to the season last week. We managed only a .500 record, scraping for 1-1. F the Rams!!! Anyway, we have 4 locks for this weekend’s action. Here we go:

Bengals -7 @ the Browns: This line is extremely flawed. We think Vegas is giving the Browns way too much credit. Way too much. Their QB situation is comical and the few offensive weapons they have are not nearly enough to hang with the Bengals. Also, look what the Bengals did last Monday to a top 5 defense. The Browns D is nowhere as good as Baltimore’s. They will lose by double digits. Take the Bengals -7.

Cowboys -3.5 @ the Fins: The Boys bring their high powered offense to South Beach. The Fins have a decent D. They should do a better job against Dallas than the Gints did last Sunday night. But, it won’t be good enough to win. Even without Glenn, the Boys just have way more weapons than the Fins can cover. The Boys D looked terrible Sunday night, but they should put up enough points to cover. They will win by at least 6. Take the Boys -3.5. Also, with the Boys abilities to score and their inability to stop anyone from scoring, this game should have a decent point total. Take the Over at 41.5.

Chiefs +12 @ the Bears: This line is crazy. It has not moved all week. This is insane. It should be waaaay higher. Even at +17 it is a good line. The Bears absolutely dominated LT last week. If it wasn’t for the Chargers’ D and Rex, the Bears would be 1-0. They are furious. It is their home opener. For his own safety, LJ should call in sick this Sunday. The Chiefs have no threats. Press this bet hard. The Bears will win easy. Don’t be surprised by a shutout. Take the Bears -12.

Those are our picks for Week 2. Good luck!

Runny & Flash

September 15, 2007 Posted by | Bears, Bengals, Browns, Chargers, Chiefs, Cowboys, Dolphins, Gambling, NFL, NFL Picks | 4 Comments

NFL Preview: A gambler’s intro to making money

The Vegas odds on the NFL season have finally arrived and we wanted to point out to you some of the simple techniques we use to consistently make money. Lets take a look at the over/under win total for each team:

NFC East
Dallas – 9
Philly – 9
NYG- 8
Skins – 7.5

South
Carolina – 9
NO – 9
ATL – 7.5
TB – 7

North
Bears – 10
GB – 7.5
MINN – 6.5
Det – 6

West
Seattle – 9
SF – 7.5
St. Louis – 7.5
Zona – 7

AFC East
NE – 11.5
NYJ – 8
Miami – 7
Bills – 6

South
Indy – 10.5
Jacksonville – 9
TENN – 7
Houston – 6.5

North
Baltimore – 9
Pitt – 9
Cincy – 9
Cle – 5.5

West
SD – 10.5
Denver – 9.5
KC – 7.5
Oak 5

Simply put…Vegas is saying that the Patriots are the best team at 11.5 wins and the Raiders are the worst team at 5 wins. Why are the over/under win totals important? These early lines are the backbone for how Vegas is going to set their point lines this year.

Lets break down these win totals from a historic perspective:

NFL teams that won 11 or more games
2006=5
2005=10
2004=6
2003=7
2002=5
2001=8
6 year average – 6.83333

Why is this important? Well on average for the upcoming 2007 NFL season there will be 6.8 teams that win 11 or more games. Vegas right now is only saying that the Pats will win more than 11 games and has the Colts and Chargers at 10.5, close but not 11. Plain and simple numbers are saying that there should be 6.8 teams that win 11 or more games and Vegas only has one team identified that can do this. Even if you take the low numbers of 5 teams from 2002 and 2006, that still means there are 4 chances to beat these numbers.

NFL Teams that won 5 games or less in a season
2006= 6
2005=10
2004=7
2003=10
2002=6
2001=7
year average – 7.66666

This stat is even more telling. Vegas has only one team at 5 wins and this stat says that on average, over the last 6 years, there will be 7.6 teams that win 5 games or less. Again this is creating a money making opportunity to find the 6-7 other teams besides the Raiders that will win only 5 games or less. These will be easy under bets.

So to start off this betting year we have identified 11 betting opportunities where we feel Vegas is off by 3 games under or over.

Lets look at the over opportunites. We have spotted 5 opportunities to beat Vegas:

1) Bears – The Bears have an easy schedule and play in a weak division. We think they will win 14 games and Vegas only thinks they will win 10.

2) Saints – The Saints are also in an easy division and Vegas has them tied with Carolina with 9 wins. We think this is a joke and the Saints ar emuch better and will win the conference and come in with 13 wins.

3) Rams – Vegas has this high flying time under .500 at 7.5. C’mon now. S. Jackson will tear it up this year and the offense will be tough to stop with Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael as new additions. Rams win 11 games and the division.

4) Bengals – The Bengals play in a tough division but we think they have a favorable schedule and will win 13 games. Vegas has them at 9.

5) Chargers – We think the Chargers are the best team in the AFC and play in an easy division. This team will be on a mission. We see them at 15-1 and Vegas has them only at 10.5 wins.

Now for the fun stuff and finding the teams that will stink up the joint this year. It is amazing to us that Vegas only put one team at 5 wins. We see 6 money making opportunities for betting unders.

1) Vikings – Vegas puts this team at 6.5. We are laughing hysterically at this pick. Go look for yourself and find even 3 games you think they will win. We think this is the worst team in the league and will be lucky to win more than one game.

2) Atlanta – This speaks for itself. This team is a mess following the Vick legal mess. Vegas thinks they win 7.5 games and we think it looks more like 2. Go find 8 wins on this teams schedule. WE DARE YOU!!!!!

3) Tampa Bay – Vegas puts this team at 7 wins. Lets take a look….No RBs, no WRs, a gay QB and lame duck coach. 7 wins…..we think it will be more like 4.

4) Miami – The Trent Green experiment will go as sour as a Cleo Lemon. Vegas put this win total at 7 wins. We sharted ourselves laughing so hard that the experts think they can win 7 games. We think they will win one game.

5) Houston – Vegas put this team at 6.5 wins. The Matt Schaub experiment showed us all that he is a born loser. He might have put up some stats in the past but he sure knows how to lose and he will not enjoy throwing behind that line that ran Carr out of town. They will be lucky to win more than 3 games.

6) KC Chiefs – This team is the Raiders with Larry Johnson and a worse Defense. Vegas thinks they can win 7.5 games and we think 7.5 is the number of coaching mistakes Herm Edwards will average during each game. Chiefs might win 2 games this year.

So there you have it. We outlined where we think Vegas has made mistakes and we are putting our money where our predictions are. The Rams are probably the hottest pick going right now so you probably want to jump on that one before the lines move too much.

Flash Flash and Runny

August 25, 2007 Posted by | 49ers, Atlanta Falcons, Bears, Bengals, Betting, Bills, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs, Colts, Cowboys, Dolphins, Eagles, Falcons, Gambling, Giants, Jaguars, Jets, Lions, NFL, Packers, Panthers, Patriots, Raiders, Rams, Ravens, Redskins, Saints, Seahawks, Steelers, Texans, Titans, Uncategorized, Vegas, Vick, Vikings | 1 Comment