Here is our rundown for the season. Last week we went a combined 10-4 so that brings our records to the following:
RPJ $yndicate is now 12-12-1 on the season. We are not happy with this but we had a solid week last week and we will continue to roll with our system that is going to start picking up winners like Spitzer picks up whores. Mark our words.
Flash Flash is now 5-1 on the season. I am loving the games I am finding. The Rule of 28 was 2-0 last week.
Runny Pelvis the Fat is now 11-9 on the season. 5-3 last week and on a roll.
We always tell you that we are here for our fans. The Wizard complained that the chicks we show are too skinny and that he wants to see curvy ladies who have asses wider than their hip bones. Sorry Klum fans but you are on the back burner this week. Here you go Wizard, a picture of Kim Kardashian, she certainly has some curves:
Sorry Wiz. Had to throw in some humor this week. Here you go with some fine pics:
And a video of some booty shaking. Mr. SEC Lawyer requested as much Keyra as possible and it just does not exist so we had to mix it up. This is not Keyra quality but variety is the spice of life. Also, check out the video at the end of this post. It is solid.
Hope these met your approval Wizard and Mr. SEC Lawyer. To our other fans out there this just shows how we aim to please. Feel free to post comments, requests or shoot us emails at rpjsyndicate.com. We are here for our readers 1) to make you bucket loads of cash and 2) to show you what you want and based on where you click and read, you want to see hot ass.
Now on to the Week 5 picks and we have a lot of them for you:
RPJ $yndicate picks
North Carolina at Miami (-8) – This game is going down as the Flash Flash special and his game of the week. It just so happened that it hit all cylinders as far as our models go. UNC is coming off a horrible defeat at the hands of Virginia Tech. They had that game in hand, then lost their QB and a 4th quarter lead at home. UNC is young and will not be able to to bounce back from this. T.J. Yates gave his team a chance to win any game and now they have no chance to beat The U. Miami is actually playing pretty well. We have watched them a lot this year and they played Florida tougher than the final score showed (Effing Urban Meyer and his cover FG…douche, douche, DOUCHE!!!). Miami might have the most or second most team speed on defense. Line them up against USC and see who wins. The ATS numbers actually do not favor Miami in this game but stats do. Miami rushes for more yards per game, gives up a lot less yards per game and does not turn the ball over as much. Get on this line before it hits 10. Miami covers and wins!!!
Kent State at Ball State (-18 and over/under 59.5) – We are picking our first MACkey attackey game of the year. We love these games. Kent State stinks on defense and gives up more than 430 yards per game and to top it off they can score on offense. After they got shut out by BC in week 1, Kent State has scored 28, 24 and 27 points all while going 1-3 on the season. Ball State can score with the best of them and are generating 482 yards per game on offense and giving up 393 yards per game on defense. Ball State is 4-0 and has scored 42, 41, 35 and 48 points on the season. Ball State scored 42 last week at Indiana and lost their best player during the game and kept on scoring. We are hitting you up with a double pick on this game. Here are the ATS numbers:
Golden Flashes are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
Golden Flashes are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Golden Flashes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Golden Flashes are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 conference games.
Golden Flashes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
Golden Flashes are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Golden Flashes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Golden Flashes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Golden Flashes are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 6-0 in Golden Flashes last 6 games in September.
Over is 4-0 in Golden Flashes last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 4-1 in Golden Flashes last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Golden Flashes last 8 road games.
Over is 7-3 in Golden Flashes last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Cardinals are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Cardinals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. win.
Cardinals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
Cardinals are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
Cardinals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
Cardinals are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Cardinals are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Cardinals are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games.
Over is 12-2 in Cardinals last 14 games in September.
Over is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
We think the ATS numbers speak for themselves and Kent State is bad, really bad. They need to change their team name from the Golden Flashes to the Golden Showers. Ball State is going to urinate all over them. Take Ball State to win and cover and double it up with the OVER!!!
Ole Miss at Florida (-22) – This is an interesting game. Florida is coming off their Tennessee road beat down and Ole Miss has had two weeks to stew about their loss at home to Vanderbilt. Florida has looked good on paper but we do not think they are as good as their record shows. Tebow is not playing like Tebow. Maybe he should have been practicing instead of saving children in the Philthypeens this Summer. What we do know is Florida has some ridiculous talent on campus. Check this out:
Lets check out the ATS numbers:
Rebels are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Rebels are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Rebels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Gators are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Gators are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Gators are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
You saw that Florida has one loss against the spread in the SEC in their last 5 and you guessed it…that game was against Ole Miss last year in a 30-24 win. Ole Miss could easily be 4-0 but has suffered a pair of disheartening losses. The Rebels outgained then-No. 20 Wake Forest on the road Sept. 6, but lost 30-28 on a last-second field goal. After beating Samford the next week, Ole Miss hosted Vanderbilt in its SEC opener last Saturday and outgained the Commodores 385-202. Jevan Snead, though, threw four interceptions and the Rebels lost two fumbles in a 23-17 defeat. Snead has talent and the swamp is no cupcake but we think this is too many points. This line opened at 24.5 and is now down to 22. We think you need to jump on it while you can. 62% of the money is betting on the Gators and the line is dropping so Vegas can take more bets for the Gators. As soon as the line stops dropping or rises we know the line is true. Get it while its hot….Ole Miss covers in this game!
Purdue at Notre Dame (Pick Em) – Holy crap this line opened at Notre Dame -3 and moved to pick em. Did hell freeze over? What the eff is going on here? 78% of the money is going to Purdue and that terrifies the hell out of us but the leaping leprechauns are putrid. The ATS numbers:
Boilermakers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Boilermakers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
Boilermakers are 8-19 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Boilermakers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Boilermakers are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Boilermakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Boilermakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Fighting Irish are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Fighting Irish are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.
Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big Ten.
Fighting Irish are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games.
Fighting Irish are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Fighting Irish are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in September.
Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
The ATS numbers are not great but the head-to-head battle is big for Purdue. We think Vegas is out of their mind this game. Unless you live in Indiana you have no idea how important this game is for Purdue against their instate rival. Notre Dame might not give a crapola about Purdue but Purdue sure wants to beat the tar out of Notre Dame. This is Purdue’s bowl game. They hate the Irish. Purdue pissed us off last year with a no cover but they are back with a vengeance this year. The Irish are still bad, very bad. So forget the record for a moment. The Fighting Irish are 111th in the country (out of 119 teams) in rushing offense. They are 107th in total offense and 68th in total defense. Notre Dame’s offensive line, which was the worst in the history of offensive lines last year, is still weak. The only thing they have going for them is somewhat of a passing game. However, Purdue held the great Dan LaFevour down last week. If they can stop that passing game, they can certainly stop Claussen’s. We think this is easy money and is Runny’s pick of the week. Purdue wins and covers easily!!!
Fresno State at UCLA (+6.5) – Sometimes our models totally throw us for a loop and they did it in this game. Even though the pick will defy all logic, we have to stay disciplined to our models and our system. Lets look at some UCLA arse to get our minds focused on the game at hand. This is from the school’s annual undie run. Bet you wish you went there.
Lets look at the ATS numbers:
Bulldogs are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games overall.
Bulldogs are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games on grass.
Bulldogs are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS loss.
Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Pac-10.
Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Bruins are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Bruins are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games following a S.U. loss.
Bruins are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss.
Bruins are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games.
Bruins are 23-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bruins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
Bruins are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games on grass.
Bruins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Bruins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Bruins are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games in September.
Shocking isn’t it. We wish we had a better reason than, “trust us” but we do not. However, we are all over UCLA in this game and we are getting 6.5 points. Take UCLA and the points!!!!
Arkansas at Texas (-27.5) – Back for another rule of 28 game. This line was 28 when I started writing this post and it moved on us. Damn oddsmakers. Rule of 28 was 2-0 last week and really means absolutely nothing but in terms of golf, Rule 28 is when you are playing golf and you have to rule your ball unplayable and you are left with the following decisions:
a. Play a ball as nearly as possible at the spot from which the original ball was last played (see Rule 20-5); or
b. Drop a ball behind the point where the ball lay, keeping that point directly between the hole and the spot on which the ball is dropped, with no limit to how far behind that point the ball may be dropped; or
c. Drop a ball within two club-lengths of the spot where the ball lay, but not nearer the hole.
So we have a scenario for you. If you deem the ball in the picture unplayable what do you do?
Do you a) play the ball where it is? b) drop your ball behind the existing ball? or c) drop the ball within two club lengths. We think B is the clear winner. Drop it behind and get right in there. Is there a game associated with this? Oh yeah…The ATS numbers:
Razorbacks are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
Razorbacks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
Razorbacks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
Longhorns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Longhorns are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Got it. Texas looks damn good this year and Arkansas blows. Alabama beat the piss out of them at Arkansas. Texas will beat them worse in Austin. Texas wins and covers!!!!!
Miss State at LSU (-24) – We did not like the points Florida had to make to cover in their game but we love it for LSU. We made some fat coin on LSU last year when they played Mississippi State and we are back for more. We love this game this week and will just show yo usome of the ATS numbers heads up:
Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Louisiana State.
Bulldogs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Get our drift. Only thing that pisses us off about this game is the 2006 game. Flash missed a ten team parlay by 3.5 effing points when LSU benched all of their starters and let the Bulldogs come back and cover. Flash was in Vegas at the time and it would have been his biggest payday ever. LSU has defeated the Bulldogs (1-3, 0-1) eight straight times by an average margin of 32.4 points since a 17-16 road loss Oct. 23, 1999. Now that Lee is the QB, LSU should roll in this game. No way Miss. State can hang. LSU wins and covers!!!!!!
Virginia at Duke (-7) – Duke is actually favored by a TD. I think the stars are aligned funny and the world is about to end. Notre Dame is favored or a pick em against Purdue and there is a BCS opponent that Duke is favored against by a TD. Holy crap, run for the hills. Virginia is a mess and now has to play without the QB that won the starting job because he got tossed out of school. UVS sucked with him and will suck worse without him. Lalich is actually trying to get into Oregon State and will be at the USC/Beavers game this evening. Here are the ATS numbers:
Cavaliers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games.
Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
Blue Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Virginia is bad and might even be worse than Notre Dame. We know that is hard to believe but a UVA/ND matchup would probably be competitive. Man we love rubbing it in the face of ND fans. Thank god they ran Holtz out of town so the program is in shambles. Duke is on their way up and will enjoy some home town support. Duke should easily win and cover in this game!!!
Flash Flash Picks (5-1 on the season)
Florida International at Toledo (-20) – Get on this line before it goes over 21 points. Toledo can score with the best of them and lost a heartbreaker to Fresno State last week. Florida International is terrible. Do not buy into the close cover against South Florida last week. FIU was playing in their home opener and first game in a new stadium and blew their wad. Some ATS numbers: Golden Panthers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games. Golden Panthers are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on turf. Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Rockets are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Rockets are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 home games. Toledo will come out fast and furious and FIU doe snot have an answer. Toledo wins and covers easily!!!
TCU at Oklahoma (-18.5) – Both of these teams are rolling. Nothing needs to be said about Oklahoma. Nobody really knows anything about TCU though. TCU is tough as hell and actually beat Oklahoma in 2005 as 25 point road underdogs. This year TCU has a solid offense and its defense is actually playing better than Oklahoma’s. In addition, TCU is turning the ball over less. Here are the ATS numbers:
Horned Frogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
Horned Frogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Horned Frogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Horned Frogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big 12.
Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Horned Frogs are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
Horned Frogs are 12-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Horned Frogs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
Horned Frogs are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Horned Frogs are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a S.U. win.
Sooners are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September.
Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Sooners are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games.
Sooners are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Sooners are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS win.
Sooners are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Good numbers out of both teams. TCU has actually won their last two games in Norman. I think 18.5 points is just too much to ask as a spread versus the TCU defense. I do not think TCU wins but I think they can keep their loss under 18.5 points. Take TCU with the points!!!
Runny Pelvis Picks (11-9 on the season)
SMU @ Tulane (-18): Flash bailed on me on this one because he is afraid of the points. Chickenshit!! I’m not scurred!! I love betting on creoles on Thursday nights!!! My penchant for crawfish aside, here are some facts: Tulane is 11-1 ATS in their 12 as favorites off non-conference game vs opponent off a SU loss, Tulane is 5-1 ATS vs opponent they beat the year before who is off back to back SU losses and they are 9-2 ATS at home off of a double digit SU win. SMU facts: they suck. I’m riding the Green Wave this week!! Take Tulane -18.
USC @ Oregon State (+25.5): The boys in Vegas are PRAYING Oregon State covers this one. The line has gone up all week, but everyone is crushing USC in this one. The Vegas books are refusing to raise the line. This scares us. So do the ATS numbers-ORST is 3-0 ATS in their last 3 against USC at home, and they are 6-0 ATS off of double digit ATS win against teams that beat them the year before who are off of a SU win. Not looking good for USC. However, USC is ridiculous this year. Ridiculous. It is not the same USC team from the past 3 games in Corvallis. Think about it-USC destroyed the #5 team in the country in their last game. They will do the same this week. They are 12-3 ATS with rest. Carroll has already come out and said they want to end the game early so they can get their 4th string QB some reps!!! This will be a beatdown. Take USC -25.5.
Minn @ OSU (-18): I hate making this pick because I hate both teams so very much. However, I’m about picking winners first, so that always prevails. OSU is fresh off a massacre in SoCal and a less than sensational win (but no cover-like I said last week) last week. However, the key to last week’s game is that Tressel started Pryor. It made a huge difference. That kid is legit, and he is only gonna get better. Plus, Beanie Wells is back this week, it is OSU’s Big 10 opener and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Minn. Take OSU -18.
MSU @ IU (+8): As I mentioned last week, I was at the IU-Ball State game in Bloomington last week. IU shocked me at how bad they are. In particular, their QB play was terrible and they could not stop Ball State. Even worse, their fans were total pu$$ies. Total pu$$ies. The Ball State fans were much louder. Unacceptable during a home game. MSU has Jevon Ringer. IU couldn’t stop Ball State’s running game last week, so they have no chance of stopping Ringer. Here are some facts: MSU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against IU, MSU is 4-1 ATS in the game before Iowa and IU is 1-9 ATS off a SU favorite loss against teams that beat them the year before. That is terrible. MSU wins big. Take MSU -8.
Also, we are still researching the Wisconsin-Michigan, Colorado-FSU, Tenn-Auburn, ILL-PSU and Bama-GA games, but we haven’t made up my mind yet. We will do so by Friday. Check back with us for these picks. These may be individual picks (or maybe nothing at all), but we will at least have substantial opinions on all.
We are going to leave you with this video because we know some of you like em less curvy…
Another tough day in the life of Runny and Flash. Cash and ASS!!!!
Flash Flash and Runny
As we stated in our Boston College vs. Michigan State update, we have sucked it almost as bad as Notre Dame’s offense this year picking ATS bowl winners. We got one right so we are not as bad as Notre Dame, which had the worst offense in D-1 football this year.
We are laying a Derek Jeter bet on our next game.
2 Unit Bet = The Derek Jeter Bet – In honor of one of our favorite athletes, the 2 unit bet will be a tribute to all of the women Derek Jeter has allegedly slept with including, Jessica Biel, Scarlett Johanson, Mariah Carey, Anna Kournikouva, Miss Universes, models, etc…. We have a ton of chicks to choose for this bet in honor of our man Derek Jeter.
We had to go with Jessica Alba in this one because we know Keter will never touch her pregnant engaged ass again. We will be happy to show off her pre-pregnant engaged ass though….
And a close up of her tush courtesy of youtube….
Maryland versus Oregon State (-4.5) in the Emerald Bowl
This is a bizarre matchup. The Terps have not faced a Pac-10 opponent since 1982 so these two teams are a mystery to each other. Maryland was 9-4 last year and even had a 5 game stretch where they were 5-0 and the combined margin of victory was 13 points (think Virginia this year). This year the Terps were 6-6 but somehow managed to beat two top ten teams…Rutgers on September 29 and Boston College on November 10. They also blasted North Carolina State by shutting them out to become bowl eligible in the last game of their season. So we just told you the good…what is the bad? They lost to Florida State before the NC State beat down but that was right after the BC upset. They also lost at North Carolina. All in all the Terps were pretty competitive most of the season and lost to Wake Forest, UVA, UNC, Florida State all by 8 points or less.
We had very high hopes for Oregon State going into this season and still believe they have on eof the best offensive lines in college football. After opening with a nice win over Utah, they got blasted by Cincinatti and then lost to Arizona State, UCLA and USC….all bowl teams. Oregon State suffered through injury after injury this year and still managed to win 6 of their last 7 (USC was the only loss).
Lets look at the ATS numbers:
Terrapins are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Terrapins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
Terrapins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Terrapins are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Terrapins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Terrapins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Terrapins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Beavers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Beavers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Beavers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Beavers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
Beavers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
Beavers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
Maryland and Oregon State have each won their last three bowl games under their current head coaches. This is a tricky game to bet because we know Oregon State is ending on a hot streak and Maryland has the potential so the real question is which Maryland team shows up. Maryland was one of only four teams to defeat two top-10 opponents this season. Maryland is one of only four teams in the country with two running backs to each compile at least 750 rushing yards this season. Keon Lattimore totaled 789 with 13 touchdowns and Lance Ball had 763 with 12 TDs to help the Terps rank third in the ACC with 147.3 rushing yards per game. Lattimore and Ball, however, will be facing one of the nation’s toughest run defenses. The Beavers allow 74.9 rushing yards per game to rank second in the Football Bowl Subdivision. They give up only 313.0 total yards per game, 12th-fewest in the FBS. We think this will be a hard nosed smash em out type of game. Oregon State’s best RB, Yvenson Bernard, will be back for the Beavers and both of these teams will pound the run and stay with the run all game. We think Oregon State has the better line, the better edge in skill players and the edge on defense. When it is all said and done we think Oregon State comes out on top. When you have the chance to grab some easy Beaver…you always do it!!! Oregon State wins and covers!!!
Flash Flash and Runny
“It is not worth an intelligent man’s time to be in the majority. By definition, there are already enough people to do that.” — Godfrey Harold Hardy
Sometimes sports betting becomes one big quandary, picks do not seem logical, spreads do not make sense and you are left scratching your head trying to find a new edge. Our picks are not going to put you in the majority of the betting world and that is a good thing. We have a system and we know it works, no matter how crazy logic fights what we are telling you to do. Do we want it to work better…sure we do but we are picking winners at a 57% right now, we have had one losing week this entire season. So while the other handicappers and sports bettors are trying to find winners we know our big pay day is right around the corner. Stick with us-we do the research so you don’t have to. Our system works and you will continue to see that we are elite. Bring on Bowl Season already!!!!
As always, our disclaimer, we are 29-22 on the season, 3-3 with our Brinks Truck bets (5 times your normal betting unit, and we are up 7 units on the season. Lastly, our money is where our mouth is. We bet every one of these games at the lines we post.
We are not laying down a Brinks truck bet this week. The truck is still in the shop!
The theme of this week is The Power of 10. We have 10 picks for you and we are going to share 10 observations from our trip to South Bend this past weekend where we witnessed just how bad the Notre Dame Cowering Irish football team really is.
Betting Group 1
Clean Sweep Games….These are games where one team has a clear statistical advantage over the other team. Some of the categories we consider are efficiency running the ball, converting third downs, stopping the run, stopping third downs and turnover ratio. If a team can control the clock and the ball, they are going to win and cover.
1 – UNC @ Wake Forest (-5.5) = This game is clear cut. Wake Forest runs for almost 50 yards more per game and is almost 10 percentage points higher converting third downs…42.2% versus 32.7%. Tie that in with a superior defense and a clear advantage in the turnover ration +4 versus -4 and you have a team playing at home in the midst of a 5 game winning streak. Some against the spread numbers (ATS) for you…Demon Deacons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in October. Demon Deacons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. Demon Deacons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games. Tar Heels are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. 6 points seems high and most experts are picking UNC after they scrapped it out with South Carolina two weeks ago. The “Clean sweep” stats are what is important to us and we are taking Wake. Plus, Wake is at home against a bitter in-state rival. Wake wins and covers!
Notre Dame Observation #1: Before we walked into the game, while we were walking around campus, we actually heard a student or young alumnus say the following: “Back in the good old days, when there were no girls at Notre Dame….” We were laughing so hard that we did not even bother listening to what he said after that because he was dead serious when he said it. The ND girls are not known to be lookers but at least they are not swinging tube steaks down there. The football team is bad and now the guys do not like girls. What has become of Notre Dame.
2 – Miami-Ohio @ Vanderbilt (-14) = Vandy wins the statistical battle across the board and is coming off an awesome win at South Carolina. Vanderbilt preys on the bad..Beat Richmond 41-17, Ole Miss 31-17 and Eastern Michigan 30-7. Some ATS numbers for you… Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf. Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Redhawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Redhawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on turf. Miami-Ohio just lost to Temple. TEMPLE!!!!! We think that says it all. Vandy wins easily.
Notre Dame Observation #2: At kickoff there were actually empty seats noticeable in the entire stadium, even the student section. We even received a call that we could buy 12 tickets at face value Friday afternoon. How much of a joke is that? Now you have a school where the Boys do not like girls and even the students turned on the football team.
3 – Iowa St. @ Missouri (-28.5) = Missouri is 6 and 0 against the spread and we love picking them. Now we all know we blew it with the Oklahoma/Iowa State game but this is payback. Last week was Iowa State’s homecoming, they were playing as hard as they have all year and eventually blew the game in the end. Missouri absolutely destroyed a dynamic Texas Tech team and loves to pour on the points. Iowa State will be in let down mode and Missouri will capitalize. I do not even need to break down the statistical differences between these two teams. It is a joke. 28.5 points are nothing in this matchup. Some ATS numbers for you….Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games. Tigers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October. Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. We think that says it all. Bet Missouri with confidence.
Notre Dame Observation #3: The fan base has turned on the team. Our favorite heckler kept yelling at Charlie Weis to run the ball three times for no gain and then punt so they could at least say they successfully punted the ball. it was loud, it was ugly and the fans are not happy in South Bend.
4 – UVA (-3) @ NC State = Here is what we know about NC State, they can not stop the run, can not run the ball and have turned the ball over 24 times this year for a minus 17 turnover ratio. Enough said? You could have given us 14 points in this game and we would have taken it. Just to rub it in….Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Cavaliers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games. Wolfpack are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win. Wolfpack are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games. Wolfpack are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games in October. Wolfpack are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games on grass. Wolfpack are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog. Wolfpack are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Wolfpack are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 conference games. Wolfpack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. We think you can see what we are talking about.
We are breaking out a new feature this week. Mrs. Flash Flash is jealous of Mrs. Bill Simmons and her NFL picking weekly feature so she wanted to speak her mind this week. Her pick of the week is this game because she likes UVA’s uniforms better than all the other teams we selected. We are not kidding. Use this information as you will UVA wins easily so says The Syndicate and Mrs. Flash Flash.
Notre Dame Observation #4: Notre Dame had one pre season all american candidate on defense and it was Tom Zibikowksi, a senior and I think a 5th year senior at that. Well USC came out and spread the ball and put Joe McKnight, a true freshman, isolated outside against Zibikowski. You would think a 5th year senior pre-season all american would have no problem covering an 18 year old kid but Zibikowski was jumping up and down that he needed help and could not cover the kid. Lucky for him, McKnight’s number was not called. Even the TV announcers picked up on this. What a joke. Notre Dame is over hyped and under talented.
Betting Group 2
The Turnover Dilemma Games…This is an interesting development. Teams that appear to have the statistical edge in every category with the exception of turnover ratio are only 7-7 and against the spread in the last 4 weeks. When you look at the home and away breakdown of this 7-7 number we came up with an even more revealing figure…..the home team that has a statistical advantage but does not have the turnover ratio advantage does not cover. We came up with two betting situations that we like applying this theory.
5 – Indiana (+7.5) @ Wisconsin = Wisonsin’s turnover ratio is minus 6 on the season and they have turned the ball over 13 times. Indiana is plus three on the year and has a ball hawking defense that has caused 20 turnovers. Another interesting stat…the road team is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 meetings. Indiana has been streaky and a tough team to figure out this year but we do know they can score points against anybody…31 against Penn State and 38 against Iowa are two impressive performances and they covered in both. Indiana went toe to toe with Penn State and came up just short. We think Wisconsin is a shell of its former self and their home field advantage is not as relevant as it was in the Barry Alvarez days. Some ATS numbers to back up this pick….Hoosiers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Hoosiers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in October. Badgers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Badgers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Badgers are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games. Plus, Wisconsin’s QB plays as nervous as a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs, and IU’s QB is a stud with a phenom wideout. Indiana will cover this line and do not be surprised if they win outright.
Notre Dame observation #5: The student section gave the USC cheerleaders a standing ovation. This caught us by surprise because the male student body already was on record saying the school was better when there were no girls there and now they were applauding the USC cheerleaders and then it struck us (NOTE: These girls were extremely attractive). Due to the high level of homosexuality that is now prevalent amongst Catholic Priests, the male student body must be primarliy gay and therefore was applauding the dance moves of the cheerleaders. We researched and heard that modern dance was now the number 1 sought after major by males on campus.
6 – Stanford (+13.5) @ Oregon State = Two more scary teams. Stanford beats USC one week and loses to TCU the following week. Oregon St. gets destroyed by Cincy and then beats Cal. Standford’s RB situation is unknown at this point due to injuries and that has us nervous but we love the scrappiness of Tavita Pritchard, Stanford’s QB. He led them back against Arizona last week and has the same “never quit” attitude that Vince Young has. Just so you are not totally afraid to make this bet…..Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Cardinal are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in October. And on the flip side….Beavers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Not much to go on but enough for us. Stanford continues to show its grit and covers.
Notre Dame Observation #6: We witnessed the strength, power and speed of the E-Freak up close and personal. Everson Griffen, #93 on the Trojans, all 6 foot 3 inches 265 pounds of him. A true freshman listed as a DE. This kid was a freak of nature out there. They brough him out primarily in passing situations and he was a beast and all over the field, even knocking down a pass. What was most impressive was when Pete Carroll lined up the E-freak at CB. Yes, he lined him up at cornerback!!!! We were dumbfounded and they ran to his side and the E-freak got involved on the tackle. You know your offense is absolutely the worst in the nation when an 18 year old defensive end can line up on your WRs. Man Notre Dame was bad!!! Look out for good things to come from the E-Freak. Watch out Dennis Dixon.
The Straight Cash Homey Picks: Sorry folks but we can not give away all our secrets. These are our special picks that we are more than happy to throw our own money on.
7 – Kansas (-2.5) @ Texas AandM = Ride the winning horse until it is defeated. Kansas is 6 and 0 against the spread. They pulled out a nice win at Colorado last week and will look to beat another Big 12 team on the road. Here are some ATS stats for you: Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October. Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Jayhawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games. Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Aggies are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The thing we think is most important though and the true reason for their success….Mark Mangino, the Jayhawk coach. This guy is by far one of the fattest coaches in the history of NCAA football. Check it out:
Are you kidding us with this guy?!?!? He makes Charlie Weis look like Calista Flockhart!!! This guy is a monster and we would not screw with him….Ride that Kansas horse until it needs to be shot. Jayhawks win and cover on the road!
Notre Dame Observation #7: During the third quarter, Sharpley passed to Travis Thomas who was lit up by Cary Harris and fumbled the ball which was recovered by Keith Rivers. We were on the complete opposite side of the stadium when this hit went down and we could hear it…it sounded like somebody was cracking wood. We have never been to a live sporting event and heard a hit like this in our lifetime. We are not sure how it carried over on television or even how it looked but it sounded great. It is impressive that Travis Thomas got up and his head was still attached to his body.
8 – Arizona @ Washington (-3.5) = Wildcats are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games in October. Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Wildcats are 2-9 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Washington is extrememly well coached. Not saying AU is not, but Ty is a much better coach. He will have them ready to rock. They put up points and Oregon last week and kept that game close. AU will not like the road trip. Washington covers easily.
Notre Dame Observation #8: Jimmy Clausen’s prediction that he will never lose to USC if he is QB actually came true. Jimmy has been so good playing that Weis benched him and Jimmy was able to follow through with his bold prediction. No playing time = no chance of losing to USC. Nice work on your prediction Jimmy. Three more years to go with that one!!!
9 – Georgia @ Florida (-8.5) = This game will be a street fight. Look for big hits. These games have been close in the recent history. This game is being played in J’Ville, but the home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Gators are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Gators are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in October. Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Bulldogs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS loss. Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in October. Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Florida. Gators just have more athletes and more people to lay the lumber. If Florida can cover 9 against Kentucky, they can cover this. Take Florida and give the points.
Notre Dame Observation #9: We observed just how bad Notre Dame is as a team, coaches included. There is zero talent on that team and the play calling was worse than Ron Zook’s at Florida. If you do not know what I am talking about go find a Gators fan and he/she will fill you right in. Screen, screen, draw, screen, etc… You get our drift. Weis was terrible and needs to be held accountable for his game planning and the talent he recruited. He was bad and the players were bad and unprepared. Sharpley looked frantic on every passing play. We observed a horrendous ND team suffer the second worse home loss in its storied history and we loved it. Leprechaun land does not even have anything good to root for in the near term. You know the country is moving in the right direction when Notre Dame has one win and is ranked last in NCAA on offense. We love it!!!
10 – California (+3) @ Arizona State= This a BCS debacle game. We are playing the numbers here. Cal has lost two games in a row but they have not lost three straight games since losing the first 10 games of their 1-10 season in 2001. Also, the Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings and none of the games have been decided by less than 17 points. Golden Bears are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog. Golden Bears are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog. Golden Bears are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Sun Devils are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. The Sun Devils best RB, Ryan Torain, their leading rusher and scorer is now out for the season. Arizona State is not battle tested and will need to step up big to compete against Cal. We do not think they can. Cal bounces back with a win and a cover.
On a side note, I am very sorry but I was not able to make Jeff Tedford eat a turd sandwich this week. I am still working on it and if he burns us again he will be forced to eat a turd sandwich and wear a very large anal plug.
“Hi my name is Jeff Tedford, I am scratching my head because I have no idea why I let a red shirt freshman ruin our season and ultimately take money out of the pockets of the readers of this fine blog. Runny and Flash are great guys and if I fail this week I will eat that turd sandwich, with an anal plug up my rectum. You can count on it.”
Notre Dame Observation #10: Although we have been bashing the beloved Leprechaun lovers in this post, we must give props where due. The entire staff on campus could not have been more polite. Seriously, it was like we were watching a game in a 5 star restaurant. An usher even gave us a “congrats” on our way out the stadium. They say a team/organization shows its true colors in a defeat. The ND staff was all class. Thanks for the hospitality.
We love the banter that has been increasing on our blog. Feel free to post your picks or ask us for our advice. We check this regularly and will post as soon as we can. Also, our blog reader base has been steadily increasing and we want to hear what you have to say about us… good or bad. Leave us a comment, leave us your picks, ask us questions….we are here for you and here for you to make money!!!
We love our picks like a fat kid loves cake!!!!
Flash Flash and Runny
“I love the smell of napalm in the morning”…Not so much but our picks last week smelled worse than napalm, they smelled like dog shit!!!. Our picks were putrid last week and gave us our first losing picking segment on the season (NCAA and NFL). Here is where we stand…
On the season NCAA picks are 20-16, our Brinks truck bets (bet 5 times your normal betting unit) are 3-2 and we are up 8 units on the season. Still profitable and only one down week in 6 weeks. This is a marathon and not a sprint and the entire goal of the season is to build a big enough bankroll to crush the bowl season and that is where the BIG MONEY is!!!! We were 19-4 last year during the bowl season and that record is what prompted us to get this blog up and running so we can prove to you how we are successful and that we can consistently make you money.
As always… our picks are below and our money is where our mouth is.
Because Week 6 was shitty we are giving you 6 great picks this time around. Just kidding this is actually how the numbers worked out this week.
Saturday, October 13, 2007
THE BRINKS TRUCK BET OF THE CENTURY. Yes you heard that right. We love our first pick of the week and will be betting 5 times our normal amount.
1) Boston College (-13.5) @ Notre Dame – This game is a joke and the Boston College bettors will get the benefit of the irrational leprechaun lovers first win last week. Lets take a look at what really happened last week…UCLA had 7 turnovers, outgained ND 2-1 on offense, held ND to under 100 yards passing and 50 yards rushing, had 11 penalties, gave up a TD to the ND defense, had to play a red shirt freshman at QB and the list goes on and on. What basically happened is every single thing that could go wrong for UCLA did and now YOU the bettor gets to take advantage of it. America is a beautiful thing isn’t it. UCLA was a 21 point favorite at home against Notre Dame and now Boston College, THE 4TH (I mean $$$th) rated team in the country is only a 13.5 favorite at Notre Dame…This has to be a joke. Notre Dame already has shown that they can not compete against athletic teams and Boston College can run, pass and play defense. BC’s defense is excellent against the run and I love any time a defense can force ND to pass. We have seen that game plan before…..drop back for a pass…oh oh oh… sacked by 5 defenders. This is a clean sweep game, which means Boston College is more efficient on offense, more efficient on defense and has a better turnover ratio on the season. The historians are going to remember all the classic BC/ND matchups that ended with game winning field goals…We could give a shit!!! We know this is a BC team that has a swagger that is gonna go into South Bend and beat some ass. Boston College wins this in a blowout!!!!! We got on this game earlier in the week and do have it a -13.5 but we would still recommend this up to -20.
2) Virginia Tech (-13.5) @ Duke – At first glance this is a bit scary because Duke is one of the best teams against the spread in the country at 5-1 and Va. Tech is only 1-4. Well the game stats do not lie. Virginia Tech gives us another clean sweep matchup…Va. Tech rushes for more yards a game, converts more 3rd downs on offense, its defense gives up less rushing yards a game than Duke and lets opposing offenses convert less third downs and is better in the turnover margin game. Here are some other historical numbers to back up our “clean sweep” stat approach…Hokies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater. Hokies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Hokies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games in October. Hokies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite. Hokies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games. Hokies are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Hokies are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 conference games. Hokies are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games following a ATS win. Some reasons we do not like the Dukies include: Blue Devils are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in October. Blue Devils are 10-26 ATS in their last 36 home games. Blue Devils are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog. Blue Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater. Blue Devils are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Basically as we see it….Va. Tech is hot after getting blown out by LSU. They destroyed Clemson on the road last week and Clemson is much better than Duke and Death Valley is 1 million times more difficult to play in then Wallace Wade Football Stadium. Lets see…Wallace Wade versus Death Valley. Unless the nerdy Duke students are going to figure out how to give the entire Hokie roster diarrhea before the game this line is a joke. Actually Va. Tech would still cover this with pants full of crap. Take Va. Tech and cash!!!!
3) Drum roll please………..We are back with our favorite team from last year!!!!We’ve got the Fever, the Fever, the Fever for LeFevour. He is back!!!! Army @ Central Michigan (-13.5) – Did you know what team was best against the spread last season…..Central Michigan. Bet you did not get that one. Now that we are 6 games into the season and Central Michigan has played some nasty road games against the likes of Purdue and Kansas and now is into the middle of the season and is no longer thinking, damn it we lost Joe Staley to the NFL, this team is on a mini roll. Central Michigan is hot after getting embarassed by North Dakota St. at home. They are 2-0 ATS in their last two and won easily at home against Northern Illinois and at Ball State and they are putting up points in bunches. Looking closer, Central Michigan is a another clean sweep stat team this week. They dominate Army across the board. Some trends of importance: Army Black Knights are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. Black Knights are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on Turf. Black Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Black Knights are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October. Central Michigan Chippewas are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games in October. Chippewas are 11-0-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. Chippewas are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite. Chippewas are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games on Turf. Chippewas are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite. Chippewas are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win. Chippewas are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall.
We are happy to be placing money in the hands of our favorite QB. Catch the fever for LeFevour and take Central Michigan to the bank!!!!
4) Baylor @ Kansas (-26) – Another clean sweep team. Kansas dominates Baylor across the board and is 4 and 0 against the spread this season. I do not even have anything good to write about Baylor potentially pulling something here. Check this out: Bears are 18-39 ATS in their last 57 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. Bears are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a double-digit loss at home. Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bears are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Bears are 1-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. And the the 0 fers: Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October. Bears are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 conference games. Bears are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
So in other words….Baylor is flat out terrible and they are playing on the road against Kansas team that loves to throw up points. Now don’t get me wrong, Baylor is not Notre Dame terrible. Ha ha. I love a season where ND can be the brunt of every joke. This is the first Kansas team that has won at Kansas St. since 1989. This Kansas team has some toughness and should not be taken lightly. Take Kansas and don’t look back!!!
5) Missouri (+10.5) @ Oklahoma – We can not wait to watch this game. A Missouri team rolls into Oklahoma with an undefeated record and an undefeated record against the spread at 4 and 0. One of the last remaining undefeated teams against the spread in the nation. This is an interesting matchup. Both teams run the ball well but Missouri has a significant advantage moving the chains and converting third downs 59% versus 46.7% for Oklahoma. On the defensive side of the ball and this will come as no surprise, Oklahoma has a great run defense and holds opponents to 25.5% third down conversion ratio versus 37.2% for Missouri. The turnover ratio is plus 5 for Missouri and plus 4 for Oklahoma. So it comes down to the fact that there is no real clear favorite in this game and we have to wonder if playing at Oklahoma is a 10.5 point advantage. We do not think so!!! We can spit out positive against the spread stats for both teams but we are only going to focus on one….In heads up play, the underdog is 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 meetings. Both teams have banged up RBs so then what do you look to…. you look at QB. Leadership at QB clearly goes to Missouri’s Chase Daniel. Sam Bradford is good but he is only in his first year and Daniel is a veteran and that is huge in games like this. We love getting this many points betting on Missouri and would not be surprised if Missouri hands the Sooners their second loss of the year.
6) Oregon St. @ Cal (-14) – This game is almost a clean sweep game. Somehow Oregon St. has a great rushing defense but we think this number is an anomaly and other than that Cal blows them out of the water. This Cal team is hot and really looked impressive at Oregon two weeks ago. On the flip side, Oregon St. just can not get things going and really ends up beating themselves with a minus 9 turnover ratio, including 23 turnovers on offense. The against the spread numbers do not really support Cal in this one but we think this is a different Cal team. Cal’s young defense causes turnovers, they run the ball extremely well and have playmakers on both sides of the ball and they are battle tested against ranked teams on the road. Taking care of an underperforming Oregon St. team at home will not be a challenge. If Cal screws us again like they did in the Colorado St. game, we are going to personally serve Jeff Tedford a giant turd sandwich. Take Cal, even if they lose we will videotape Tedford eating his turd sandwich and that will be worth it.
Good luck this week. We apologize for our lackluster 1-2 performance during week 6 but we will be back and we will be back this week. RPJ’s system is battle tested and we will prove to you that we are long term winners. “Start living the life, bet like you mean it, make a boat load of cash and deliver a strong pimp hand.”
Flash and Runny
We went 5-2 last week.
Here are our picks for this weekend and make sure you notice the game times. One tonight, one Friday with 4 on Saturday.
Thursday, September 6
1) Oregon St (-3.5) at Cincinnati – Here is the deal with this game. Cincy is a tough team, especially at home. They almost beat Ohio St. last year. Also, Cincy opened up with a blowout of SE Missouri St. Well Bearcats fans… this is not SE Missouri St. Oregon St. is a scrappy team too. Last week they beat Utah 24-7 after starting very slow and going into the half tied at 7-7. That will not happen this week. Or. St. will be ready to play. As we stated last week, Oregon St. has one of the best offensive lines in NCAA football and they are getting Sammie Stroughter back this week. Sammie did not suit up last week and this week he will definitely be a difference maker.
Friday, September 7
2) Navy at Rutgers (-17) – This line is completely flawed and provides an opportunity just like the LSU/Miss St. game did last week. Rutgers should win this game by 30 points. Navy barely beat Temple last week and will simply can not hang with this Rutgers team. Last year the game was 34-0 and we do not see any reason why it will not be similar. We bet this game the hardest of the week at 5 times our normal bet.
3) West Virginia (-24) at Marshall – West Virginia knows they play a weak schedule and the only way the can compensate for it is to pummel teams and show off Slaton and White as Heisman candidates. Last year West Virginia won 42-10. West Virginia is 8-3-1 against the spread on turf in their last 12 and Marshall is 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games. Marshall could not stop the run last week against Miami and this West Virginia team can run significantly better than the Canes can. Do not fear 24 points. This has blowout written all over it.
4) Cal (-14) at Colorado St. – This game has let down written all over it. Cal was 2-3 on the road last year and has not impressed away from Berkeley. Colorado St. suffered a heart breaking loss against Colorado last week and what we saw is they can not stop the run. We all saw what happened to Tennessee when they let Forsett run wild. We know the Pac-10 inside and out and we think CAL has the weapons, the swagger and the right attitude this year. They know they can play with anybody and have USC at home this year. Cal is going to continue to roll, the nation just does not know it yet.
5) Southern Miss at Tennessee (-10.5) – Tennessee has won its last 12 home openers and is coming off the game where CAL smacked them around. One good addition is that of RB LaMarcus Coker who was suspended for the CAL game. So Miss rolled up rushing yards last week against Tennessee – Martin and I think Tennessee will work long and hard this week to recover from the holes they gave up to Forsett. So. Miss is 2-7 against the spread in their last nine road games and we do not think they have what it takes to compete against Tennessee after a loss.
6) Wisconsin (-25.5) at UNLV – UNLV is playing a red shirt freshman at QB and Wisconsin starts a 5th year senior. UNLV is not good against the run and the Badgers will look to run, run and run more with PJ Hill. UNLV is 2-6 against the spread against teams with a winning record and 7-17-1 against the spread in their last 25 games on grass. This spread should be over 30 and we are going to ride Wisconsin after missing out on their performance last week.
As always… our money is where our mouth is. If you ever want our opinions on games let us know. We check the blog often and will respond quickly. We want to reiterate that we are not here to pick every game, we simply pick games where we see flaws in the lines.
Flash Flash and Runny
Here is where the syndicate stands right now:
We loaded up the Brinks truck on LSU vs. Mississippi St….Most of our cash is in at 18.5 and we threw some more coinage on it when it dropped to 18. The last time I checked today the spread was 19.5. We would not be surprised to see this go off at kickoff in the 21 point range. LSU will crush them.
Our second game of the night is Oregon St. (-6.5) at home against Utah. This is a nice game when you give less than 7 points. We expect it to be a two touchdown or more win but under 7 is a steal. Oregon St. returns 18 starters form the team that beat USC last year and this squad is always tough at home. Oregon St. has one of the best offensive lines in college football if not the best line in the nation. In 2006, Oregon St. outscored opponents 129 to 55 in the first quarter and we expect hem to get off to a fast start and it will simply be too much for Utah too handle in a hostile environment.
College football is finally here and we are pumped up.
Let us know through the comment board if you ever want our thoughts on any particular game. We are here to share our insights for now so we can prove to you that our methodology successfully picks winners and will help keep you ahead of the vig. We do not believe that football is about picking winners and losers in every game; we are here to find the favorable spreads and situations that other people are glancing over or taking for granted. We might have weeks where we pick zero or one game but we will have others where we will pick 10 if we see opportunities. Stay tuned for more commentary on this weekend and Monday’s games. We are watching the lines and will pounce when the opportunity is there. Also, we always put our money where our mouth is and will share the wins and the losses with all of our followers.
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