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12/22 Free NCAA Football Bowl Pick and Hot Chicks: Southern Miss versus Cincinnati

We are throwing another Heidi Klum bet out there for this game.

1 Unit Bet = The Heidi Klum bet. You know she is hot but her judgement must be suspect cause she married one of the ugliest human beings outside of Scottie Pippen, Sam Cassell and Charlie Weis (of course we took a dig at Notre Dame in this blog). We love the Heidi Klum but something is off with her judgement so we are only comfortable making her a a one unit bet.

klum-breasts.jpg

Southern Miss versus Cincinnati (-11.5) in the Papajohns.com Bowl

Southern Miss’ Coach resigned at the end of this season after 17 years in what was a disappointing season because this team was predicted to win Conference USA this season. He will be coaching his last game and some experts think this will be a motivating factor. Other factors include Southern Miss having a top notch Conference USA defense, giving up 23.6 points per game and 363.2 yards per game…if that even is supposed to be considered good. Cincinnati has a defense that struggles against the pass but is solid against the run. This matchup simply looms as a poor one for Southern Miss and that is why the spread is in the double digits. Southern Miss runs more than they pass and Cincy only gives up 105.7 yards per game. In addition, Cincy has a plus 17 turnover ratio compared to Southern Miss at minus 2. Lets look at the ATS numbers:

Southern Miss
Golden Eagles are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Golden Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Golden Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Golden Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Golden Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Golden Eagles are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.

Cincinnati
Bearcats are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bearcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
Bearcats are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Bearcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. CUSA.
Bearcats are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Bearcats are 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Bearcats are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on turf.
Bearcats are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Bearcats are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Head to Head
Golden Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings

Cincy was also 8-2-1 against the spread this season. Do you see how this game will play out…we do. Southern Miss will not be able to run on Cincy, will fall behind, pass more than they are used to and start to turn the ball over and Cincy will steam roll them. Southern Miss’ lone victory against a bowl team came on Sept. 15 against East Carolina. In their other four games against bowl teams, they lost by an average of 15.5 points. Do you see why we are fine with this line where it is?

Cincy wins and covers!!!!

Flash Flash and Runny

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December 21, 2007 Posted by | Bearcats, Betting, Big East, Free NCAA picks, Gambling, Heidi Klum, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Southern Miss, Winning Picks | 1 Comment

NCAA Football Week 8 Picks: 9 Winning Picks and a Trip To See TD Jesus

We were 4-2 last week but missed our Brinks Truck bet so the Brinks Truck is in the shop this weekend getting tuned up. What we do have is 9 great picks for you this weekend. Because we are always up front and honest…we are 24-18 on the season, 3-3 for Brinks Truck bets and we are up 6 units. The 6 units is a joke and we plan on turning that around ASAP.

For our nine picks this week, we are going to break them down into 4 betting categories. First up is the ” Clean Sweep”. The clean sweep means a team meets our statistical betting criteria. The public data we share with you for the clean sweep is the following:

Offensive rushing yards per game
Offensive 3rd down efficiency
Defensive rushing yards given up per game
Defensive 3rd down efficiency
Turnover ratio

When a team meets these 5 figures they win more times than not because they control the clock, can move the ball, stop opponents from controlling the clock, stop opponents from moving up and down the field and do not turn the ball over.

The Clean Sweep Games of the Week:

1) Cincy @ Pitt (plus 9.5) – Cincy is going to be very pissed off following their loss to Louisville and PITT just can not get anything going. Even Navy passed all over them last week. Yes Navy passed the ball successfully on PITT. In what could be a turn of events that actually helps PITT, their coach, Dave Wannstedt, tore his achilles tendon and will probable coach the game from the press box. We saw what good old Dave was able to do against Navy and that was coach his team out of a win. Being in the press box and away from the players and flow of the game might help PITT. However, please be serious here, Cincinnati is ninth in the country in scoring average at 40.6 points per game, while Pitt has given up an average of 42.0 points in its last three contests. This game will be ugly. Ride Cincy and their 5 and 1 record against the spread. Easy cash in this one.

2) Miss St. @ West Virginia (minus 24) – Plain and simple stats for this one. Miss. St. can not stop the run and turns the ball over. West Virginia should have no problem taking control of this game. West Virginia is coming off a bye and Pat White should have had plenty of time to get healthy. Last year and on the road, West Virginia won 42-14. We expect this game to be even more ugly. Mountaineers mount the boys from Mississipp and make em squeal like pigs.

3) Kansas @ Colorado (plus 3.5) – Kansas is becoming one of our favorite teams and is undefeated against the spread at 5 and 0. Last year Kansas won 20-15 and this year’s team is a lot better. Colorado just lost 47-20 to the same Kansas State team Kansas beat. This spread should really be over 10. Jayhawks splatter their poo all over the Buffs.

4) Texas @ Baylor (plus 25) – We saw what Kansas could do against Baylor, a 58-10 win and Texas should whoop them even worse. Baylor might be competitive against the cellar dwellers like Notre Dame but they will be hooked by the Horns. Texas in a blowout.

5) Oregon @ Washington (plus 11.5) – Oregon is really hot. We see this as a parallel to the USC team that lost to CAL in 3-OT a few years back. After that loss the Trojans went on a tear, ultimately destroying Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Well this Oregon team, after suffering a disappointing loss to Cal is on fire after destroying Wash. St. 53-7 last week. Oregon is probably the most explosive team in the Pac-10 and will continue to prove it this week. Ducks blow out Washington by more than 20.

6) Oklahoma @ Iowa St. (plus 29.5) – Iowa St. is the Sooners’ red headed step child. All time they are 66-5-2 in the series. What a freakin joke. So the question is not will Oklahoma win but by how much. The Cyclones lost to Texas 56-3 last week and we expect a similar score. Easy win for the Sooners.

The “Wash” Game of the week

Sometimes we look at a game and do not see one clear winner that stands out meaning the teams are essentially even. We have one such game this weekend.

7) Tennessee @ Alabama (pick em) – Tennessee rushes for 19 more yards a game and the teams are equal in offensive 3rd down conversions. On defense, Alabama is a little better against the run and the teams are even in third down conversion percentage. Turnover ratio favors Alabama 6 to 1 and we think this will be the difference. This game dropped to pick em and we love not having to worry about points, picking the home team and the team that turns the ball over less. Roll Tide Roll. Alabama wins this game.

The SEC Road Cover of the Week

8) Auburn @ LSU (minus 10.5) – The SEC has had some great games the last few weeks and the number one lesson to learn is to not bet on the favorite in the higher spread games. Auburn’s defense proved they can play with the Florida offense and will have no problem with the LSU offense. We do not think Auburn wins but we know they will keep it closer than 10.5 points. Against ranked teams Auburn keeps it close; 3 points with South Florida, 3 points with Florida, 2 points with Arkansas. Take Auburn and the points and watch as they strike fear into another SEC team.

The Fever Game

9) Central Michigan @ Clemson (minus 16.5) – Dancin, Dancin, YEAH!!!! We got the fever for LaFevour once again. Central Michigan has been a cover machine the last three weeks and they covered easily. Our boy Dan LaFevour has the Chippewas playing aggressive football and we think they can keep it close with Clemson and certainly closer than the 16.5 points they are getting. Look at these numbers, this game is too easy: Chippewas are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in October. Chippewas are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Chippewas are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Chippewas are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win. Chippewas are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. And then we get to look at Clemson: Tigers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on grass. Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Tigers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. Tigers are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.

If these numbers do not convince you to get the Fever for LaFevour than you are in the wrong business. Stop betting, send us your money and in return we will send you a jar of tiddly winks.

On a side note, we both go to the USC/Notre Dame game in South Bend every two years and this weekend will be no different. We normally would put out a prediction on this game but Runny wants to bet USC cause he hates ND and Flash wants to bet ND cause USC has been dog vomint for three weeks in a row. We both think USC wins easily and the Trojans defenders might actually physically kill a Notre Dame player because their offense is so terrible. Notre Dame would be better off playing 11 of those little leprechauns from the Lucky Charms commercial cause USC is going to physically dominate them. Also, if you see two drunk USC clowns in the Notre Dame alumni tent feel free to say hello. We will be the ones double fisting bloodies and beers and heckling the demented leprechaun lovers. How in the hell can BC be favored by 13.5 points in South Bend and the Trojans opened at 20.5 points. At least they dropped down to 18 and continue to go down but give me a freakin break. If Vegas were legit at setting lines this game would have an 8-10 point spread.

*****10/19/2007***** We needed to post this story about USC…Trojans endure harrowing flight

This is big news. There is one other game we can remember this year where this happened and it was when Southern Miss travelled to Boise St and got blown out 38-16 and did not cover the 10.5 point spread. Please remember that these guys are kids and they just were on a plane where they thought they were going to die. It is not surprising that I have seen some “experts” actually pick ND for an outright win now after this news was announced. We still think USC wins but Flash thinks this is even more reason why ND will cover. Runny absolutely refuses to give ND any credit and still is on the USC to cover bandwagon. We are here to share info and we feel like this is important betting information that needs to spread.

We hope you enjoy the picks. We have been winners for 6 of the 7 weeks of the NCAA season and we love our picks this week. If you want any picks from us or reasons why we did not bet a game let us know. Simply post a comment and we will get back to you within a couple of hours. Our money is always where our mouth is and that means we share the fruits of our labor with you,our readers.

Flash Flash and Runny

October 18, 2007 Posted by | Alabama Tide, Auburn Tigers, Baylor Bears, BCS, Bearcats, Bulldogs, Central Michigan, Chippewas, Clemson, Colorado Buffaloes, Crimson Tide, cyclones, Fighting Irish, Iowa State, Irish, Kansas Jayhawks, Les Miles, LSU, LSU Tigers, Mississippi State, Mountaineers, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon Ducks, Pittsburgh Panthers, Sooners, Tennessee, Texas Longhorns, Tigers, USC, USC Trojans, Volunteers, Washington Huskies, West Virginia | 18 Comments

Week 5 NCAA Football Picks: 99 problems but picking winners ain’t one!!!

Here we go again for week 5. We are 15-10, have never had a losing week this season and are up 13 units in total when you count our Brinks truck bets (betting 5 times your normal amount). We do not have a Brinks truck bet for you this week but we do have 8 solid picks. We want to expand a little bit on some of the stats we use before we get into the nitty gritty. We look at rushing yards per game on offense and defense, third down conversion rate on offense and defense and turnover ratio. Why these stats…it is simple!!! I do not need to explain turnovers. Turnovers simply kill a team. As far as rushing and third down conversion, this is simply a factor of game control and game domination. If a team can rush more and convert more third down than its opponents while committing less turnovers; they are going to win plain and simple, control the clock and wear down opposing defenses. Just sharing some of our little tricks. And now for the picks:

Saturday, September 29, 2007

1) Akron Zips at UCONN (-15) – Here are the numbers….UCONN rushes for almost 60 yards a game more that Akron and converts 39.1% of their first down conversions while Akron only converts 25.4%. On defense, Akron gives up 206.8 rushing yards a game and lets its opposition convert 41.9% of its third down conversion chances while UCONN only gives up 83.8 yards a game rushing lets its opponents convert 23.6% of third down conversions. Last but not least, UCONN has a ball hawking defense and is plus 9 in the turnover ratio this season. Here are some against the spread (ATS) numbers…Huskies are 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 non-conference games. Huskies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Huskies are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games. Akron is 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Zips are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Zips are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Zips are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Go with UCONN all the way; if anything, bet against a team named The Zips. Idiotic mascot name.

2) Notre Dame at Purdue (-22) – I hope this game really does not need any explaining. We told you last week how bad Notre Dame is and guess what they are still terrible. They can’t rush, can’t stop the run, can’t convert third down conversions, open up the flood gates and let teams convert third downs and they are minus 2 in the turnover ratio game. I could run down how bad Notre Dame is against the spread in every situation but it is too long to fit in this blog. Purdue has a great offense and is playing at home. Although Purdue is 4-10 ATS in their last 10 home games, the Boilermakers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater and we think this is the stat that is more telling especially when you couple it with the following: Boilermakers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Boilermakers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Boilermakers are 6-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Boilermakers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Purdue will kick the lucky charms out of the funny little green leprechauns this weekend. Purdue all the way!!!

3) Florida Atlantic Owls @ Kentucky (-22) – Kentucky is on a roll. They more than double Fl. Atlantic’s rushing output per game 227.2 versus 111.2 and they are far more efficient converting third downs. On the defensive side, Fl. Atlantic gives up more yards rushing than they themselves rush for and allow teams to convert 47.4% of their third down conversions. The one place where Fl. Atlantic has the edge is that they are plus 13 in the turnover ratio margin versus Kentucky’s plus 6. Some other tidbits: Wildcats are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on Grass. Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Wildcats are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games in September. Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. As far as the Owls go: Owls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Owls are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. Owls are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. Owls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. We do not think this will be close and do not fear the 22 points you have to give. Kentucky rolls in this one.

4) Syracuse at Miami-Ohio (+1.5) – The Cuse showed up huge in their road win at Louisville and on paper they really are not as bad as the media experts want you to believe especially compared to Miami-Ohio. The Cuse is more efficient on offense converting third downs, gives up less rushing yards on defense and by some bizarre miracle they are actually plus 3 in the turnover ratio while Miami-Ohio is minus 4. Orange are 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. MAC. Orange are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in September. Orange are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. Redhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big East. Redhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September. Redhawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Cuse will ride the momentum and put the Orange squeeze on Miami-Ohio and win outright. Go Cuse!!!

5) Clemson @ Georgia Tech (+3) – Georgia Tech is coming off a disappointing road loss and is very banged up. Injuries have played a big factor in the team’s recent downturn. Tailback Tashard Choice, who leads the team with 356 net rushing yards and is second with four touchdowns, played only two possessions last week after attempting to return from a hamstring injury. Choice, safety Djay Jones, linebacker Shane Bowen and offensive tackle Jacob Lonowski are questionable due to injuries, while starting fullback Mike Cox and receiver James Jones missed portions of last week’s game. On the other side of the ball Clemson’s two headed running back monster keeps racking up yards. These teams rush for a very similar amount but the difference is in their offense’s efficiency. Clemson converts 42% of their third down conversions and Georgia Tech only converts 20.8%. This spread is only three and we think Georgia Tech is too banged up to compete. Clemson wins easily and covers.

6) Auburn @ Florida (-18) – This is an interesting game. Auburn started the season in the top 25 and was supposed to be one of the best teams in the SEC. Florida has been crushing people and faced a scare against Ole Miss last week. We are going off the cuff with this pick because on paper, using the stats I mentioned all the way through this post, this looks like an easy walk for Florida. Florida rushes for more yards and is more efficient on offense and stops the run better than Auburn and stops teams on third down tries more often and they are plus three in the turnover margin versus Auburn’s minus 3. They ATS numbers tell a different story though….Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Tigers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Gators are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Gators are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 conference games. Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. The Florida number that really jumps out at us is that they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 ATS. This is telling that they play SEC teams close. All teams will be gunning for the defending champ. This is why USC is never good against the spread because teams bring the kitchen sick, the toilet, the washing machine, etc… when they face elite squads. Auburn has the talent to match Florida on defense, if not be better, and we think this game will be far closer than the 18 point spread. Take Auburn on the road to cover, who knows they might even win.

7 ) Ohio St. @ Minnesota (+23.5) – Ohio St. is on a big roll. The stats you need to know here are that Minnesota can not stop anybody on defense and they are minus 12 in the turnover ratio, one of the worst in the country. Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on Turf. Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September. Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite. Buckeyes are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 conference games. Buckeyes are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win. Buckeyes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Golden Gophers are 3-7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Golden Gophers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater. Golden Gophers are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Golden Gophers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Ohio St. rolls easily here and covers with no problem.

8 ) Cincinnati @ San Diego St. Aztecs (+15) – We love the Bearcats. They have caused 19 turnovers on the season and are flat out nasty on defense. The Aztecs can not stop the run and Cincy will have a field day. Throw in the fact that the Aztecs are a passing team and we envision this turning into turnover city. Just ask Oregon St. what can happen when you get behind and need to pass against these guys. Bearcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Bearcats are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on Grass. Bearcats are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win. Bearcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Bearcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Aztecs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Aztecs are 4-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Aztecs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. Aztecs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog. The Bearcats will maul the Aztecs and cover this one easily. We were surprised the spread was not 21 points or more.

Please feel free to post your own picks or to ask us to pick games. We have tons of stats and performed a ridiculous amount of resaearch this week. We always put our money where our mouth is and we are enjoying a great year. Good luck and may Notre Dame continue to lead the nation in offensive ineptitude!!

Flash Flash and Runny

September 27, 2007 Posted by | Akron Zips, Auburn Tigers, BCS, Bearcats, Betting, Big East, Big Ten, Boilermakers, Buckeyes, Clemson, ESPN, Fighting Irish, Florida, Florida Atlantic, Florida Gators, Football, Gambling, Georgia Tech, Golden Gophers, Huskies, Irish, Kentucky, Kentucky Wildcats, Maryland, Miami Ohio, Minnesota, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Orangemen, Owls, Pac-10, Purdue, Rutgers, San Diego St., SEC, Syracuse, Terrapins, Uconn, Wildcats, Yellow Jackets | 1 Comment

NCAA Week 4 Football Picks: 5 Games including another Brinks Truck bet!!!

September, 28, 2007 – This is our week 4 picks…please click here for our week 5 picks.

Another week another round of victories. The Syndicate is 12-8 on the season and if you look at our picks on a unit basis we are up 8 units on the year and that is all that matters….profits and cash in our bulging pockets. As always….we put our money where our mouth is on every bet with no exceptions. If you have any games you are curious about please do not hesitate to post us a message/feedback and we will be happy to give you our thoughts. The NCAA football season finally has some history behind it and what I mean by that is that teams have played 2-3 games. A gambler’s paradise is opening weekend and bowl season. Opening weekend because there is not any information available and lines like LSU/Miss St this year and USC/Arkansas last year are terribly flawed and bowl season is equally as good because an entire season’s worth of history is available. We won our bowl bets last year at a better than 80% clip. We will not reveal everything we look at in picking our lines but this week we are going to share with you two new stats that we use to assess each matchup….Turnover margin and rushing stats. Read our picks below to understand:

Friday, September 21, 2007
1) OKLA (-23.5) @ Tulsa: We like Tulsa to cover in this one. 23.5 is too many at home. On paper both teams have a +2 turnover ratio, which is surprising considering Oklahoma has played a bunch of softies and played them at home. Tulsa is a pass first team so the running disparity will not come into play. This is Oklahoma’s first road game, and they are starting a freshman QB. Granted, he has looked amazing, but all his games have been at home and with the exception of Miami, they have not played anyone tough and is is too early to label Miami anything. Oklahoma’s O is ranked #3, but Tulsa is right behind them at #4. Tulsa is even ahead of Hawaii. We think they can keep it within 3 TDs and would not be surprised if it were much tighter in the 10-14 point range. Go with Tulsa on this one.

Saturday, September 22, 2007
2) THE BRINKS BET OF THE WEEK IS….UNC @ South Florida (-13) – South Florida is coming off a bye. They are +6 in turnover margin and rush for almost 60 more yards a game than their opponents. they won 37-20 on the road last year versus UNC and have more experience now. UNC is minus 4 in the takeaway game and has been outrushed 411 to 239. Long day for UNC and they are 4-10-1 against the spread in their last 15. South Florida is the winner and we advise betting 5 times your normal limit on this game. Our Brinks bets are 2-1 on the season. Kaching…what was that sound….Oh Yeah Kaching! Kaching! Kaching!!!!!

3) Mich St. (-11) @ ND – Notre Dame has been outrushed 718 to minus 14 on the season and is averages almost three turnovers a game. They are flat out bad and one of the worst teams in D-1 football. If you do not believe me just look at their season stats. Notre Dame literally has carried the ball 100 times for -14 yards. Do not be afraid of Michigan State’s poor showing last week against Pitt. They will come ready to play to erase the embarassing loss last year. Something to think about is Mich. St is 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 road games. However, ND is 3-11 against the spread in their last 14 games on grass and Michigan St. is 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 against ND. Bet Michigan St. all the way. Also, you have to love the Notre Dame homers that have dropped this line 2 points in the last couple of days.

4) Marshall @ Cincy (-24) – Cincy’s Defense is flat out nasty. They have caused 17 turnovers in three games and only committed 4. In addition they have outrushed their opponents 485 to 267 through three games. Marshall is minus 5 in the takeaway/giveaway ratio and has only caused one turnover and they have been outrushed 826 to 272. Marshall is 16-36-2 against the spread in their last 54 games…consistently terrible and we cashed with them against West Virginia. Cincy is 9-2-1 against the spread in their last 12 games overall. 23.5 points might seem but with a defense that causes turnovers, we are not worried. Cincy all the way. Also, this is a “we learned our lesson” game. Do not bet against Cincy at home. Just ask Oregon St.

5) Ark. St. @ Tennessee (-19.5) – This is a very interesting game. Ark St. is 9-3 Against the spread in their last 12 versus the SEC and Tennessee is 9-28 against the spread in their last 37 home games. Looking a little deeper, Tennessee is minus 1 in turnover margin while Ark. St. is plus 3. In addition, Tennessee has been outrushed 575 to 341 while Ark St. has outrushed their opponents 375 to 213. Ark. St. played Texas tough and Texas is better than Tennessee. Ark. St. loves to rush and Tennessee will not be able to stop them all day and this will keep the game closer than people think. Ark. St. to cover.

Good luck with the picks and do not hesitate to share your thoughts or ideas or ask us to pick a game or tell you our reasons for not picking a game. We are here to show you that we are elite and are here to make you and us money. Plain and simple.

Flash Flash and Runny

September 20, 2007 Posted by | Arkansas State, BCS, Bearcats, Betting, Big East, Big Ten, Bulls, ESPN, Fighting Irish, Football, Gambling, Golden Hurricane, Indians, Marshall, Michigan State, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, SEC, Sooners, South Florida, Spartans, Sports, Tar Heels, Tenn, Tennessee, Tulsa, Volunteers, Winning Picks | 8 Comments

NCAA Football: Week 2 picks – Even better than opening day!!!! – 6 picks

We went 5-2 last week.

Here are our picks for this weekend and make sure you notice the game times. One tonight, one Friday with 4 on Saturday.

Thursday, September 6
1) Oregon St (-3.5) at Cincinnati – Here is the deal with this game. Cincy is a tough team, especially at home. They almost beat Ohio St. last year. Also, Cincy opened up with a blowout of SE Missouri St. Well Bearcats fans… this is not SE Missouri St. Oregon St. is a scrappy team too. Last week they beat Utah 24-7 after starting very slow and going into the half tied at 7-7. That will not happen this week. Or. St. will be ready to play. As we stated last week, Oregon St. has one of the best offensive lines in NCAA football and they are getting Sammie Stroughter back this week. Sammie did not suit up last week and this week he will definitely be a difference maker.

Friday, September 7
2) Navy at Rutgers (-17) – This line is completely flawed and provides an opportunity just like the LSU/Miss St. game did last week. Rutgers should win this game by 30 points. Navy barely beat Temple last week and will simply can not hang with this Rutgers team. Last year the game was 34-0 and we do not see any reason why it will not be similar. We bet this game the hardest of the week at 5 times our normal bet.

3) West Virginia (-24) at Marshall – West Virginia knows they play a weak schedule and the only way the can compensate for it is to pummel teams and show off Slaton and White as Heisman candidates. Last year West Virginia won 42-10. West Virginia is 8-3-1 against the spread on turf in their last 12 and Marshall is 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games. Marshall could not stop the run last week against Miami and this West Virginia team can run significantly better than the Canes can. Do not fear 24 points. This has blowout written all over it.

4) Cal (-14) at Colorado St. – This game has let down written all over it. Cal was 2-3 on the road last year and has not impressed away from Berkeley. Colorado St. suffered a heart breaking loss against Colorado last week and what we saw is they can not stop the run. We all saw what happened to Tennessee when they let Forsett run wild. We know the Pac-10 inside and out and we think CAL has the weapons, the swagger and the right attitude this year. They know they can play with anybody and have USC at home this year. Cal is going to continue to roll, the nation just does not know it yet.

5) Southern Miss at Tennessee (-10.5) – Tennessee has won its last 12 home openers and is coming off the game where CAL smacked them around. One good addition is that of RB LaMarcus Coker who was suspended for the CAL game. So Miss rolled up rushing yards last week against Tennessee – Martin and I think Tennessee will work long and hard this week to recover from the holes they gave up to Forsett. So. Miss is 2-7 against the spread in their last nine road games and we do not think they have what it takes to compete against Tennessee after a loss.

6) Wisconsin (-25.5) at UNLV – UNLV is playing a red shirt freshman at QB and Wisconsin starts a 5th year senior. UNLV is not good against the run and the Badgers will look to run, run and run more with PJ Hill. UNLV is 2-6 against the spread against teams with a winning record and 7-17-1 against the spread in their last 25 games on grass. This spread should be over 30 and we are going to ride Wisconsin after missing out on their performance last week.

As always… our money is where our mouth is. If you ever want our opinions on games let us know. We check the blog often and will respond quickly. We want to reiterate that we are not here to pick every game, we simply pick games where we see flaws in the lines.

Flash Flash and Runny

September 6, 2007 Posted by | BCS, Bearcats, Beavers, Big East, Big Ten, California, Colorado St., ESPN, Football, Gambling, Marshall, Miami, Navy, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Oregon State, Pac-10, Rutgers, Southern Miss, Sports, Tennessee, Uncategorized, Utah, Utah Utes, Volunteers, West Virginia, Winning Picks, Wisconsin Badgers | 2 Comments