Week 5 NCAA Free Football Picks (9/27/2008): Introducing the Backwoods Southern Lawyer, AKA SEC Genius!!!
Flash and Runny have reached out to another guest writer. Mr. SEC lawyer as we named him is picking at an 80% clip for SEC games. He told us not to bet the Miss St./Auburn game, he told us not to bet the Georgia/South Carolina game and he has been dead spot on all year. Well Mr. SEC Lawyer has agreed to guest post for us and he will now be referred to as BSL or Backwoods Southern Lawyer. BSL loves NCAA football, specifically SEC football. He lives and breathes SEC football and we have found him to have the best pick ideas related to SEC football in the country. We are privileged to serve as his voice.
I believe it was Reba McEntire who sang “Don’t trust your soul to no backwoods Southern Lawyer”, but my faithful clients can trust their dollars and be well rewarded. The verdict is in — yours truly is a blistering 80% on SEC games in September and back with more winners this week. Have you or your pocketbook been injured by college football misfires? Well, strap on your neckbrace, stick with me and we’ll laugh all the way to the bank.
Be forewarned. Runny and Flash have crunched the numbers eight ways to Sunday; they work a reliable system and grind out impressive results year after year. I’m more of a “feel” guy. I get my picks from having been born and raised 3 doors down from the gates of one of the premier SEC campuses (literally being able to hear the roar of the crowd from my room); from worshiping names like Herschel Walker and Bo Jackson and Archie Manning; from tailgates that start on Thursday; from being one fo the first ones in and the last to leave the stadium; and most importantly, from living and breathing SEC football for well nigh 30 years now. The law may be my profession, but SEC football is my passion, and I’m just here to share the love and — above all — I’m here to make a dollar and a cent in this business. So, without further ado, let’s get to the picks….
Call it the weekend of the home favorite in the SEC. With the exception of Ole Miss, that’s who I’m going with:
TAKE OLE MISS +22 AT FLORIDA. Houston Nutt knows how to get up for big games (i.e., Hogs upsetting LSU in last year’s regular season finale). Gators have been playing the offense playcalling close to the vest. Expect another vanilla showing and a 17-point Florida victory.
TAKE LSU -24 VS. MISS. ST. Auburn beats MSU by 1 point. The next week, LSU beats Auburn by 5 points. So, what does Vegas say — opening line is LSU over Miss St. by 24 points. They are on to something. For one reason or another, LSU owns Miss. St.– like 15 of the last 16 owns. And, lately, it hasn’t been close. The win over Auburn has got LSU primed for a big game, not a let down. If LSU gets up early, this one will not be within 5 touchdowns.
TAKE AUBURN -6.5 VS. TENNESSEE. The wheels are falling off Fulmer’s bus, which makes me question this pick because last year, just when you thought he was a beaten man, Tennessee went on a run and made it to the SEC Championship Game. HOWEVER, Tennessee just doesn’t have the dogs for this hunt. Auburn rolls in a low-scoring affair.
TAKE GEORGIA -6.5 VS. BAMA. Georgia was ranked number one to start the season for a reason. They are loaded and are going to make this a statement game at home. John Parker Wilson (or whatever his name is) is an average quarterback and will show it this weekend.
Enjoy the picks. I will be back next week for more action.
First things first. Our performance has been less than stellar….RPJ is now 9-11-1. Flash is 3-1 and Runny is 6-6. We clearly want to make money and we are not pleased and will not make any excuses like a terrible Kansas line for a push and two half point losses already on the season…..but who is checking. We also changed our blog from RPJ Syndicate to RPJ $yndicate to invoke the gods of the almighty dollar.
Thanks for all of the advice and for your support or knocks. Our models take into account everything you can think of under the sun and then some so we feel confident we will turn this around in no time.
Our rules…We bet every game we put on here and at the lines we post them. Lately we know we have shared the pain but some serious cash is right around the corner. We are going to throw out a lot of games this week, including our first great debate game. RPJ $yndicate picks are picks that pass 100% of our combined models, Runny picks are picks that pass his models but do not pass Flash’s models and Flash’s picks are picks that pass Flash’s models but do not pass Runny’s models. Simple enough. On with the picks….after the obligatory arse shots. We had a request for more Keyra videos and who are we to deny you of that pleasure. Enjoy Mr. SEC lawyer friend….
And one nice pic of Keyra can not hurt either….
And just to continue with the theme here….Miss Angelina Jolie. We wish the cameraman focused a little more to the left and it was raining outside but hey we do not live in a perfect world.
Last but not least…Anybody have a problem with Playboy? We do not think so.
Yes we will still make picks this week and here we go….
RPJ $yndicate Picks
Temple at Penn State (-28.5) – Penn State helped us out last week for one of our wins. Not sure it was more about Penn State or more about how terrible Syracuse was but a win is a win and for us right now that is all that matters. Penn State is going for its 26th straight win against The Owls. The Nittany Lions (3-0) are among the nation’s top 25 in both passing (273.0 ypg) and rushing (263.0 ypg), resulting in the country’s eighth-ranked total offense and fourth-highest scoring team. Temple is coming off two crushing defeats, one in OT to UCONN and the other on a hail mary pass to Buffalo as time expired. Here are the ATS numbers:
Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Owls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Owls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Owls are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Owls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big Ten.
NittanyLions are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. MAC.
Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
NittanyLions are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Temple has some impressive ATS numbers, as does Penn State, but what it really comes down to is Temple can not compete in Penn State or against Penn State. No way, no how. The last two years or so when Temple was putting up these impressive ATS numbers they were also losing to Penn State at home 31-0 in 2007 and in Happy Valley 47-0 in 2006. Temple will not cover, NO WAY, NO HOW!!! Take Penn State to dominate this game and win by 30 plus points.
LSU at Auburn (+2.5) – This is definitely the game of the week and ESPN Game Day canceled their Arizona State show to move to Auburn after The Sun Devil’s choke job last week. Auburn is coming off a ridiculous game that they won 3-2. Words can not describe how awful and terrible the offenses were. If Auburn can not score against Mississippi State then how the hell are they going to score against LSU. LSU has had hurricane on the mind and really has needed to get games in to break in their QBs and offense. Auburn has a top rated defense as well so if LSU is not ready to play on offense this score could be lower than the 3-2 we saw last week. The ATS numbers:
Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games in September.
Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games on grass.
Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 home games.
Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games in September.
Under is 8-2 in Tigers last 10 conference games.
Under is 6-2 in Tigers last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 6-2 in Tigers last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 15-6 in Tigers last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Auburn.
Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
Yep. you guessed it. We are mixing it up this week and throwing in our pick as an over/under pick. Right now the O/U line is at 37.5 and we love that number. These offenses are not ready to play but the defenses are. Remember two years ago…LSU at Auburn….final score was 7-3 in favor of Auburn. Take the under (37.5) in this game.
Wake Forest at Florida State (-5) – This game is pretty simple to see for us. Wake Forest has actually tested itself this season with a road win at Baylor and a home win versus Ole Miss. Baylor is impressive in the fact that Wake traveled and won in the state of Texas for the first time ever and Ole Miss is impressive simply because it is an SEC school. We know absolutely nothing about Florida State because they chose to beat up on 1-AA schools. And yes we refuse to call them anything but 1-AA schools. The ATS numbers:
Demon Deacons are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Demon Deacons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Demon Deacons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Demon Deacons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Demon Deacons are 13-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Demon Deacons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Seminoles are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Seminoles are 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Seminoles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Seminoles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Demon Deacons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
We think this game favors Wake. They are tougher and more tested. Wake also has a two game winning streak going against the Seminoles and that shows us that Wake knows how to win in Tallahassee. We think this game will be close and physical and do expect Wake to win in the end. The fact that we get 5 points makes it all the better. Take Wake and the points.
Notre Dame at Michigan State (-9) – Our favorite battering ram. Of course Notre Dame kicked us in the arse last week. Damn early turnovers killed Michigan. Well Charlie Weis put all his eggs in the Michigan basket. He talked about beating them all off season and observers say he had more emotion and was more prepared for last week’s Michigan game than any game he has ever coached. You know what that means….let down city. Charlie also got knocked on his fat ass and hurt his knee. Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!! Look at the fat walrus fall….
Michigan State is not a team you can overlook. They are physical, run well and have a great coach. We know Notre Dame shaves their Kuntz and if you do not believe us then click this sentence. The ATS numbers:
Fighting Irish are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
Fighting Irish are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Fighting Irish are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Spartans are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Spartans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. INDEP.
Fighting Irish are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
We think this is a heavily overrated Irish team. Barely beating SDSU and stomping a depleted, young Michigan team in the infancy of a completely new offense does not impress us at all. MSU is the much better team. They roll at home. Take MSU -9.
Runny Versus Flash – The Great Debate Game
Georgia (-7) at Arizona State – Well it was bound to happen and it only took until Week 4 but Runny and Flash are split on this game. We are not going to bet this game because we are split on what is going to happen. However, we know our readers want to know what is going to happen in this game because it is the game of the week. This game is important on many levels and especially for the Pac-10 versus SEC feud. The Pac-10 laid an egg last week, especially against Mountain West foes and the Mt. West is far removed from SEC competition. Tennessee went to UCLA and got pummeled by a bad UCLA team that went to BYU and lost 59-0. Yup 59-0. Georgia was the pre-season #1 and many predicted them to be national champion. If Georgia is to live up to the hype, they have to go on the road to Arizona State and win convincingly. Amazing tidbit….this is the first time Georgia has travelled west of the Mississippi River since……….1960. 1960!!!!!! Are you freakin kidding us?!?! On top of that, this is the furthest The Dawgs have traveled in the regular season since…..1967. What the F? The SEC is by far the worst traveling conference in all of college football. It can not even be argued. Here are the ATS numbers before we get into our debate:
Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bulldogs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Bulldogs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Bulldogs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
Bulldogs are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
Bulldogs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Sun Devils are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games in September.
Sun Devils are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Sun Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Sun Devils are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Sun Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Flash Flash saysthat Georgia has a lot to prove and is not coming off of a look ahead game even though they did not play well against South Carolina. Arizona State played the look ahead game and flat out lost and that will be tough to stomach. Arizona State has one big flaw and that is they struggle against physical teams. USC destroyed them last year and literally bloodied Rudy Carpenter. We remember the blood.
Texas beat Arizona State bad and even Arizona, which is not known for much but is well coached on defense almost beat them before losing 20-17. Last week to UNLV, Arizona State ran for 3.6 yards per carry, lost the turnover battle, lost the time of possession battle, lost the 3rd down conversion and 4th down conversion battle and blew a ten point 4th quarter lead. What does that translate into?…..Not being tough enough. I think the ATS numbers speak for themselves also. You will have to wait and see what Runny thinks but I think every sign but one points to Georgia. Georgia does not know how to travel and the SEC does not travel well. That scares the hell out of me. However, in this case, ASU fields a bunch of pussies and Georgia should roll through them in a big statement game. Georgia wins and covers!!!! Side bar….When asked about dropping out of the top 25, Dennis Erickson responded “I don’t know if we should have been in there to start with.” Way to inspire confidence in your team coach.
Runny SaysGeorgia is the most overrated team in the Top 25. Yeap – THE most overrated. I don’t buy the hype at all. No doubt they have studs on both sides of the ball. However, their O-Line is ATROCIOUS. No way they can win the SEC with that line. No way. And, there is no way they travel 1,000 miles to Zona and dominate a stout D. As we noted above, this is the first time they have traveled West of the Mississippi since 1960 and the furthest they traveled since 1967. This cannot be overstated. As also noted, SEC teams do not travel out of state very well. This also cannot be overstated. Why is that?
The reason, I feel, is that SEC schools do not travel well because they purposely don’t do it. They are not used to it, so when a big game comes a good distance from home, they fold. Pretty much every SEC team loads up on cupcake schools at home like SouthEastCentralWestCrenshaw Louisiana State and think that establishes college football supremacy. I don’t buy it, and neither will ASU. Despite what they are saying in Athens, Geogia is looking past this game. They are smack dab in the middle of a tough conference schedule. Take that and the fact that they have to travel 1,000 miles means Georgia is in trouble.
(SIDE NOTE: As you can imagine, in our travels to various sporting events around this great country of ours we often run into complete degenerates that often have the same interests we do: gambling and handicapping. Some of our readers know our friend, Maury the Wig, who graces our presence during NCAA hoops season. Well, at the USC-OSU game last weekend, we had the pleasure of meeting a fellow by the name of Magic Rat. Imagine being at the biggest regular season college game of the past 10 years and meeting a guy in SoCal wearing cut-off jean shorts, drinking piss warm PBR’s and bitching about teams that were not OSU or USC. Rat was by himself, bitching about the SEC and we found him to be a pure genius. He is a hater and just seemed bash the popular team at the moment. Anyway, we immediately extended the invite to contribute to our blog. He accepted, but we haven’t heard from him since. Hopefully he will grace us with his presence. Stay tuned…we have no idea if he will remember us).
Granted, ASU sucked it something awful last week against UNLV. However, I think it was a look past game. They knew who was coming this week and they got ahead of themselves. Coach Erickson is a good coach. He knows how to motivate. He will turn it around. They may not win, but they can cover 7 points. I’m riding Rudy Carpenter and the Sun Devils and taking the 7 points.
Flash Flash Picks (3-1 on the season) and the rule of 28
Seems like all my picks have 28 point spreads. Here goes:
Wyoming at BYU (-28) – BYU is coming of a total decimation of UCLA in very impressive fashion and continuing with the nation’s longest winning streak. BYU has the toughness and wants to make it into the BCS title picture. Some points to think about…Last week, the Cougars rolled up 521 total yards even though no individual player had more than 110 yards from scrimmage. The Cougars forced four turnovers and allowed nine rushing yards on 16 carries in handing UCLA its first shutout loss since 2001. Do not doubt this team for a second. 28 points does not scare me. BYU wins and covers convincingly!!!
Rice at Texas (-28) – Good things typically happen for Texas when it meets Rice. The Longhorns, who have won nine straight games over the Owls, are 37-1 against them since 1966 to improve to 68-21-1 in the all-time series, which dates to 1914. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and Rice Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Texas wins and covers easily!!!
Runny Pelvis (6-6 on the season)
VaTech at UNC (-3) – UNC shocked me last week with their dominating win over Rutgers in Jersey. Pretty damn impressive. Butch Davis has completely turned that program around. He has done an excellent job of recruiting and it is starting to show. Props to him and that team. However, the Hokies have a great coach, too, and a very established program. Frank Beamer knows how to run a team. Despite the fact that they have looked bad this year and lost their opener to East Carolina, I think they cover in this one. I love the points. Some facts: Tech is 10-1 ATS on the road against opponents they beat the year before, Tech is 12-2 in their lined road openers and UNC is 2-8 as Favorites of 6 points or less. VaTech covers and wins outright.
Miss St. at GaTech (-7.5) – Miss St scrapped last week against Auburn. Impressive? Not to me. Their schedule has been a joke: the lost to LaTech and beat SE LA. That’s right-SE LA!!!! Tech, on the other hand played J’Ville St, BC and VaTech. Much more impressive to me. Paul Johnson is a great coach and within two years, he will have GaTech competing for a BCS title. They aren’t there yet, but I think they are the much better team here. Also, Miss St is 1-6 ATS in their games immediately following Auburn. That says to me that they blow their loads against Auburn. Bad timing this week. I’m taking GaTech -7.5.
Iowa at Pitt (+1) – This line says a lot about how Pitt’s season is going. With all the pre-season hype and the studs they have on this team, no way Pitt should be an underdog in this game. However, after an opening loss to Bowling Green and not destroying Buffalo, Pitt finds themselves sucking it. They haven’t covered all year, and they won’t this week. Iowa has a solid D (allowing a Nation’s best only 2.7 points per game) and they beat their bitter rival last week. We like them here, too. Facts: Pitt is 1-6 ATS at home against a team .600 or better under Dave Wannstadt. Enough said for me. Take Iowa -1.
Central Michigan at Purdue (O/U: 64.5) – You readers know that we love us some Dan LaFevour. He is the man!! He knows how to run wild and throw-up some points. However, so does Curtis Painter and Purdue. I love he MAC and I researched this game more than any other this week. Honestly, I cannot figure out who will cover (at posting time, Purdue is giving 3). So, I’m not picking a team. I’m taking the game. Both teams can throw-up massive amounts of point. I love the over in this. Take the OVER 64.5.
Troy at Ohio State (-20.5) – OSU is fresh off the drubbing they received at the hands of SC last weekend. They were completely over matched and dejected by halftime. Now they come home with their tails between their legs and looking to salvage their program and self-respect. Beanie Wells is out, and there has been no decision on who will start at QB. If Tressel is smart, he will go with Pryor for the rest of the season. We watched him in person last week and think he is every bit as good as advertised. He needs to play. However, I think Tressel is still going to play him in spots. I think this is a mistake. This strategy barely beat Ohio. Troy is a MUCH better team than that. They play good D and they smell blood. Facts: Troy is 9-2 in their last 11 road games and OSU is 0-5 at home against non-conference opponents who are coming of a straight-up win. I think OSU wins, but Troy can keep it within 20.5.
Bama at Ark (+8.5) – HUGE SEC battle!! I can’t wait to watch this game. Both coaches left the NFL under high scrutiny. Both have excellent NCAA coaching histories. Bama is stacked and had, in my opinion, the best recruiting class in the country. Julio Jones is a future NFL star and an immediate difference make. Ark does not have that type of player, but they can still play. Both teams will be geeked for this game. What will give? I say Ark covers. Facts: The Dog in this series is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 match-ups, and Ark is 7-1 as underdogs off a non-conference game vs. an opponent off double digit straight-up win. Due to hurricane Ike, Ark is rested and this is the game they have had circled all year. I think they get a huge emotional edge at home. I’m taking the points and riding Ark +8.5.
Ball State at Indiana (-3) – I will be heading to this game and tailgating like a madman. This is a HUGE rivalry for the great state of Indiana. Both teams will be fired-up. I can’t wait!! Should be shootout, but I think Ball State covers. Facts: IU is 6-1-1 against the MAC and 6-1 at home against an opponent off of back-to-back straight-up ATS wins. This favors IU immensely and give that they are in the Big 10, they should blow Ball State out. However, they have had some turmoil this season (Middleton suspension) and they have not looked that great. Balls State is hot, and I can guarantee you that have had this game circled on their calendars since they were pummeled by Rutgers in last year’s final game. Nate Davis is a stud who leaves it all on the field every game. I’m taking Ball State +3.
Florida at TENN (+7.5) – THE #2 game of the week. Another HUGE SEC match-up. These teams hate each other and it is typically a good game. The ATS numbers scream take Tenn: Tenn is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 match-ups and Fla is 2-6 in their last 8 September games. However, the key to me to this game is that Florida is coming off the bye. This is huge. They have had two weeks to prepare for this game. They will be ready. Remember, this is the same Tenn team that lost to a terrible UCLA that was crushed by BYU last week. Tenn is overrated. This spread is high because Vegas knows Tenn is bad. With the ATS numbers, the spread should not be this high. I’m taking Fla -7.5.
Enjoy the picks and feel free to make comments, tell us we suck and cost you your house or tell us what hot chicks you want to see of feel free to send us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Flash and Runny
P.S no idea why this darn blog bolded everything but this is not a beauty contest. Also, we just saw Jeff Tedford and he was eating a turd sandwich.
We are ready to put last week behind us. Last week, The Syndicate was 2-6 (6-7 on the season), down 1 unit, Flash was 1-0 (3-0 on the season) and Runny was 3-1 (4-3 on the season). The 2-6 really was painful and we know we blew a lot of your beer and nudie bar money. To make up for it we are going to post some hot ass to start this blog. Literally hot ass!!!!
and the legendary Keyra Augustina in video (one of the greatest of all time)
Since we are heading out to Vegas and LA to party and go to the Ohio State/USC game we are putting these out a little bit early this week. All of these bets are 1 unit bets.
Friday, September 12
Kansas at South Florida (-3) – It feels good to lay down a Mangino bet. This is our favorite coach in all of college football. How can you root against a guy larger than Refrigerator Perry?
Mangino is large and in charge just like the Jayhawks who have picked up right where they left off last year. Last week, South Florida had the classic look ahead game and almost lost to Central Florida. We love the Big 12 this year and hate the Big East. The ATS numbers:
Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Jayhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. win.
Jayhawks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games in September.
Jayhawks are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall.
Jayhawks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
Jayhawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Bulls are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Bulls are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
We love that Kansas is getting points. Not sure who is making this line but Reesing is playing really well right now completing almost 77% of his passes and a 6-1 TD to INT ratio. Kansas wins this game outright and Mangino gets his first RPJ Syndicate love of the season.
Saturday, September 13
Cal at Maryland (+14.5) – We are scared to death betting this game. Jeff Tedford always finds a way to screw us over. He basically looks at what The Syndicate says to do and then effs it up for us and our fans.
You can open a bank with how much this clown has cost us the last few years. Cal has been rolling. They beat Michigan State and then destroyed Washington State. Maryland on the other hand barely beat Delaware and then actually lost at Middle Tennessee State. We are surprised this line is not 24 points or more and it basically comes down to the Tedford factor. We know he will choke at some point, usually it is against USC but sometimes it jumps up and bites us sooner. Last year he lost to Washington and Stanford. The ATS numbers:
Golden Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Golden Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Golden Bears are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in September.
Golden Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
Golden Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Golden Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Golden Bears are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Golden Bears are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games on grass.
Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Golden Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Terrapins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Terrapins are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Terrapins are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Terrapins are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Terrapins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Terrapins are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
Man those Cal numbers are scary. We know Tedford will blow a game, we know he does not travel well and we know the Pac-10 does not travel well heading coast to coast but we know that the Terps suck it far worse than any of Cal’s issues. Cal wins this one easily!
Nevada at Missouri (-26.5) – When a team is hot you get on and ride it until they burn you. Missouri has been on an ATS roll since last season. Chase Daniel might be the best QB in the entire country (man we jumped fast off the Pat White flaming train to hell). Chase can flat out rip it. Missouri has a kill mentality too. Chase is often quoted in saying that he expects to score every time he touches the ball and that is in fact his goal. Throw in the fact that Nevada lost its leading rusher last week against Texas Tech and we think the Wolf Pack will be pretty demoralized and have a tough time keeping up with Missouri. The ATS numbers:
Wolf Pack are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Wolf Pack are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.
Wolf Pack are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. loss.
Wolf Pack are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
Wolf Pack are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Wolf Pack are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Wolf Pack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Wolf Pack are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
Tigers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Tigers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games.
Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.
Tigers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games on grass.
Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Missouri is a team on a mission this year. They want to go undefeated and they want Chase to win the Heisman trophy. We think all of this is possible because they are explosive as hell on offense. This game might start close but Missouri will keep putting the accelerator to the floor and when it is all said and done they will have a win and a cover! If Nevada gets behind and is forced to abandon the run then it will be over quick.
Georgia at South Carolina (+7.5) – This has trap written all over it. Only 7 points, Georgia looks great and USC just lost to Vanderbilt in ugly fashion. What gives? This is game 1 of Georgia’s brutal stretch of USC/Arizona State/Alabama. Last year South Carolina went into Athens and beat the Bulldogs 16-12. Do not think for a minute that Moreno and Stafford forgot about this game and that means it is revenge time. The other point of concern is that Mark Richt has already come out and said he hates playing against Steve Spurrier teams. Way to psyche up your team coach. The ATS numbers:
Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Bulldogs are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Gamecocks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Gamecocks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
Gamecocks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Gamecocks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Gamecocks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Gamecocks are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Gamecocks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Gamecocks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
If those ATS numbers did not sway you then we do not know what will. Take the Bulldogs to win this game easily. South Carolina is not as good, this is a revenge game, and the superior team is only giving 7.5 points. Jump on Georgia and ride them to the bank!
Penn State at Syracuse (+27) – Well one thing has become obvious in the first two games of this season, Penn State found their offense. Daryll Clark looks good running the show and Penn State has put up 45 and 66 points. Syracuse on the other hand is terrible and got blown out by Akron at home last week. Syracuse is not that far from State College and Cuse football tickets are easy to come by (Side Note: Our buddy, Big Sherm, has Cuse season tickets and he doesn’t even like going). This will be a home game away from home for Penn State. The ATS numbers:
Nittany Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Nittany Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Nittany Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Nittany Lions are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Nittany Lions are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big East.
Orange are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Orange are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Orange are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Orange are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games on turf.
Orange are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
Orange are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Orange are 0-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Orange are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Both of these teams do not look good against the spread but Syracuse looks worse and is simply one of the worst teams in D-1 football. Penn State continues with their offensive explosion and wins and cover easily up to 30 points.
Auburn at Mississippi State (+10.5) – Another SEC revenge matchup. Mississippi State went to Auburn last year and beat them 19-14. Tuberville, in our opinion, is one of the best SEC road coaches in the conference, if not the best. In 2006 and 2007, Auburn shut out Miss State and had covered five years in a row before last year. Mississippi State was dumb enough to open on the road and lost to La-Laf. Check out the ATS numbers:
Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win.
Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Bulldogs are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games on grass.
Bulldogs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games.
Only clash we see is that Miss State covers more in September. We know Auburn is not where they want to be on offense but Tuberville is a great coach and this team will improve over the course of the season. This is something we can not say about Miss State. Auburn gets their revenge with a win and easy cover!
Michigan at Notre Dame (+1.5) – It is great to get Notre Dame back on the Syndicate’s docket. It was awesome last week when the San Diego State coach was unable to determine whether or not Notre Dame was better than Cal Poly. What a freakin joke. Notre Dame showed absolutely nothing last week and was lucky to get a win against San Diego State. We love watching Notre Dame play to try and find all of those 5 star recruits they supposedly have. Notre Dame makes the excuse that all of these 5 star guys are freshmen and sophs so they are not on the field. Well USC plays freshmen, Alabama plays freshmen, Florida plays freshmen. These programs have the real 5 star recruits, not magazine inflated recruits so Notre Dame retard fans buy the magazines. What a lovely year it will be in South Bend once again. The ATS numbers:
Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Wolverines are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games.
Wolverines are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Wolverines are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Wolverines are 10-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Wolverines are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games in September.
Wolverines are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Fighting Irish are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games on grass.
Fighting Irish are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
Fighting Irish are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
Fighting Irish are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
Rich Rodriguez is a better coach than Charlie Weis. Charlie is an arrogant prick that lets his ego get in the way of his team’s progress. Weis also gave Michigan fans and the team bulletin board material a few months back when he called out Michigan. This is Rich’s first year at Michigan and he will have some growing pains because he needs to recruit speed and skill players that can get the job done in his offense. We think this game will be ugly and low scoring but in the end the team that has the better defense will win out and that is Michigan. Michigan wins and covers the -1.5!
Flash Flash Picks (3-0 on the season)
I have one game for you this week….Keep riding that East Carolina horse until it loses. East Carolina wins and covers against Tulane (+12.5).
Runny Pelvis Picks (4-3 on the season)
UNC @ Rutgers (-5): This game will be a good one. I like UNC a lot this year and think they have a great chance of pulling some huge upsets. Butch Davis has really turned that program around and has pulled in some outstanding recruits. I think Rutgers lost a lot last season with Rice going pro. They have not looked good this year. However, I think they have what it takes to cover in this one. Rutgers is 9-1 ATS against non-conference opponents. They are at home, they have had more than a week to prepare and will be a primetime game. They have a much better QB, and although I think UNC’s D is better, Rutgers has enough to stop UNC. I think they win by at least 6, but it will be a great game. Take Rutgers -5.
Utah -24 @ Utah State: Bitter in-state rivalry and this is a ton of points. I think Utah will cover though. They are a legit BCS contender and could win their conference. Also, they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 at Utah State. I’m taking Utah -24.
Wisconsin @ Fresno State (+1.5): I like Fresno getting points in this game. I think they should be the favorite. They went into Rutgers and beat them easily in Week One. They are rested and have had two weeks to prepare. Wisconsin, although 2-0, did not look that good against Marshall last week (despite the score-they piled it on late and Marshall sucks). I don’t think Wisconsin will travel well. I’m taking the points and Fresno to cover.
Oregon -8 @ Purdue: This is a ton of points to give a Purdue team that has a solid offense with a good QB at the helm. However, their win last week at home against N. Colorado just was not impressive to me. Oregon has looked really balanced and explosive. They have traveled well, especially against the Big 10 (7-2 ATS in their last 9 against the Big 10). I’m taking Oregon -8.
NC State +18.5 @ Clemson: Clemson will be looking to beat-up on a conference foe. However, I don’t think they are as good as everyone thinks. Plus, I think Bowden is one of the most overrated coaches in football. This is a lot of points to give. NC State will surprise them this week. The road team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 head-to-head meetings. Clemson is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home against NC State. Clemson will win, but I’m taking NC State to cover +18.5.
Flash Flash and Runny
Feel free to post comments and talk smack or give us props. You can also contact us directly at email@example.com.
We think the best way to sum up this past weekend is to reveal the Las Vegas Sports Consultants top 5 poll. These guys are in the know and know a lot more than the ridiculous AP poll and the other garbage out there. Here is the poll in reverse order:
5) Florida – Impressive win over a bad team. They do not need Tebow to roll and this will be key to getting through the SEC. This is the ONLY SEC team in the top 5. You SEC homers can start your bitching.
4) Missouri – A little surprised here because the defense did not show up. Offense is ridiculous.
3) Oklahoma – Two teams from the Big 12. How about that. Remember what we said about QBs. The best group of QBs in the nation is in the Big 12.
2) Ohio State – We think this is a little bit overrated. Beanie is hurt and they did not impress against 1-AA talent. Team is still getting props for all of their returning starters and that is an important metric to track in the beginning of the season.
1) USC – Did not play that well and dominated a terrified Virginia team. Defense is ridiculous when focused and lost focus early when they knew they would not face a challenge. Great WR play highlighted the offense. D. Williams is a huge addition. Looks like the replacement for Steve Smith.
Other notables. The Big East and the ACC were and are awful. Clemson laid a huge egg as did Virginia Tech and Tennessee. Fulmer should be fired after that horrible performance. Tennessee caused four first half turnovers and held UCLA to 29 yards rushing and LOST!!!! One more time….they freakin LOST!!!!! Incredible.
The basic fact of college football is as follows. There are only two team that travel well 2,000 miles or more out of conference and that is USC and Fresno State. Props to Fresno for jacking up Rutgers. Tennessee can not do it two years in a row. Big Ten teams do not do well when they travel West; Rose Bowls and Michigan State this weekend. The reality is that teams protect their home field. Rivalry games are incredibly more important and demanding then out of conference road games. People think the SEC is the best conference because of the teams in the conference when in reality it is the rivalries. Almost every single game is a huge rivalry in the SEC and that creates the demanding pressure and creates battle tested teams. Ohio State has one rivalry game in conference, Oklahoma has Texas and vice versa, the Big East and ACC lack big rivalry games. The Pac-10 has a couple but everybody is really trying to beat USC. The reality is the SEC has more rivalry games and that is why the games are so tough and the teams do well in bowls. They are battle tested.
Player of the Week – Pat White tore it up for West Virginia. Watch out for this team. They have an awesome QB, lots of skilled players around him and play in the Big East. They easily could run the table and this is a team on a mission with a bitter taste in their mouth following their PITT debacle last year.
Team of the Week – Most impressive win has to be East Carolina. They came back and won on special teams. Complete reversal against Virginia Tech. We love Beamer ball but Holtz got the best of him this year.
Poo of the week – Tie between Clemson and Tennessee. Tennessee wins hands down because we thought Alabama had a good chance of winning and Clemson was overrated. Tennessee’s loss is inexcuseable. UCLA is bad, very bad and this will play out over the course of the season.
Stay tuned for our picks for Week 2. Feel free to post any comments or questions. We are here to help you. If you want any inside action feel free to shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org. Also, let us know if you want us to post hot chick pictures and with or without nudity.
We love cash like a fat kid loves cake!!!
Flash Flash and Runny Pelvis the Fat
We are back with our picks for the rest of the weekend and are more excited than ever. All of our picks for this weekend are one unit bets. We do not like to get ahead of ourselves to start the season. The key to any successful gambling venture is bankroll protection. We do not see a Miss St./LSU scenario or USC/Arkansas like we did the last three years. The odds makers are tightening up the ship and we will wait patiently for them to mess up and for our models to identify blatant money making opportunities. Stay patient, manage your bankroll smartly and get ready to pounce when we tell you to.
As any of our readers know, typically we only post picks that we (Flash and Runny) absolutely agree on 100%. No exceptions. Even when we have guest appearences from our degenerates, like Maury the Wig, who posts picks, we must agree with those picks to post. We haggle with each other over nearly every game to get to the games we feel are our locks. We do this because we firmly believe that competion and street fighting leads to the best results. So, when we make an RPJ pick you can rest assured that it is a pick that has been discussed, and dicussed and discussed until we are both bloody.
That said, we are adding a new wrinkle to our game. This year, in addition to the RPJ picks we will post, we will also show you other picks that each of us feel are locks, but did not survive the Flash-Runny battle royale. Our reason for doing this is the same….competion breeds excellence. We are only about winning. Winning big and decimating our competitors (i.e. Vegas) Ragnar Lodbrok-style. We fight so much for our picks that we even want to beat each other!!
On with the picks…..
WEEK 1 PICKS continued
Saturday, August 30, 2008
USC at Virginia (+19.5) – Virginia is a mess. This is not the same team as last year. The QB is gone from the team and their best defensive player is playing on Sundays. For UVA, Last year was the year of the right bounces and winning every close game. This year is not going to be fun for Virginia as Clemson and Wake are solid and Miami, UNC and FSU are all better. USC did not impress in their opener last year against Idaho and the Trojans tend to start the season slowly. Also, Sanchez was injured during the first week of camp and is just back to practice.
However, this week, Sanchez looks great and we believe USC has the best defense in the country. Take into consideration that USC is the only prgram in D-1 that practices its starting offense against its starting defense. This means USC will be ready to pound UVA on both sides of the ball. The best defense USC’s offense will see all year is its own. Only way to really highlight USC’s defense is to showcase one of their leaders…Rey Maualuga. Rey might actually kill somebody on the field this year by hitting them into the third sphere of hell.
and of course you can not ignore Taylor Mays….
These boys can lay some lumber. Some ATS stats:
Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Trojans are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.
Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in August.
Cavaliers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
We do not think UVA’s August record will matter and see USC absolutely pounding the run all day. USC wins big and probably by at least 4 TDs because the Cavs will not be able to score. Remember the USC/Arkansas scores.
Alabama at (neutral site) Clemson (-4.5) – This is probably the most interesting game of the first weekend. All of the pressure is on Clemson. They are picked by the “experts” to win the ACC, to play in a BCS bowl game and are favored to win this game. If this game were in Death Valley it would be a different story but it is not. The Tide and Saban are coming off a disappointing 7-6 season and are looking to make a statement early. We all know Saban will turn this team around, just give him 2 more recruiting classes as good as his class this past year and SEC foes should look out. Tommy Bowden is a big choke artist and will be fired if he does not meet and/or exceed the lofty pre-season expectations. Does this look like a coach that can lead your team to the promised land?
We do not trust him to wipe his own ass and his roids are clearly flaring up in this pic.
Alabama has beaten Clemson 11 straight times, but the last meeting was in 1975. Saban is the better coach and will have a month to prepare for Clemson and that will be a huge advantage. The ATS numbers are bad for both teams:
Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Crimson Tide are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. SEC.
The ATS point that sticks out the most is Clemson versus the SEC. Coaching and location, two underrated handicapping points, will dictate this game. Alabama (+4.5) will cover and do not be surprised if they pull the upset.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Colorado at (neutral site) Colorado State (+11) – We already pointed out in our Vegas preview piece that the Big 12 has the most elite talent at QB in the country and Colorado is part of that picture. QB Cody Hawkins looks good running the new spread offense at Colorado and he was challenged by his backups in camp. The competition has been healthy and will only make Cody better. He is a scrapper and the Buffs were scrappy last year. They beat Oklahoma and Texas Tech so they have the confidence that they can beat anybody anywhere. Always remember one thing….the reason you have heard of Boise State is because of Colorado’s coach, Dan Hawkins. Hawkins put Boise State on the map and then was hired away to restore Colorado’s program. This team is young and is starting to get the talent needed to compete with every team in the Big 12. A little birdy told us that when Hawkins showed up in 2006 he did not think the team possessed one legit D-1 athlete. Taking that into consideration we think he has done a great job. The Buffs went 2-10 in 2006 and 6-7 in 2007. We think they will improve and end the year with a winning record. We have one reason to shit on Colorado State and it comes from this press conference. Please click here to laugh at these tools.
Here is the injured star of Colorado State….
Any D-1 coach that opens a press conference during game week and talks about his kicker is an idiot. It is clear this clown has never coached D-1 before. Colorado is going to drop huge Buffalo turds all over this team. Plus, Colorado has probably the best freshman running back in the country in Darrell Scott. This kid can straight bowl over defenses. He will be an immediate starter. He probably get 150 yards in his debut.
Well these ATS numbers are a mess:
Buffaloes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Buffaloes are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. MWC.
Buffaloes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
The Buffalos are legit this year. No way Colorado State keeps it close, even in a rivalry game. Team Hawkins is too damn good. Take the Buffs (-11) to the bank!!!
Monday, September 1, 2008
Tennessee at UCLA (+7.5) – Last year Tennessee traveled to play Cal and was thrashed. Of course that Tennessee team was good enough to play in the SEC championship game. What a freakin joke. The team that plays in the SEC championship can not even beat a team in the bottom half of the Pac-10. Where was the media to talk about that one? This year The Vols travel to play a UCLA team that is nowhere close to Cal’s talent level from last year. UCLA has a new coach, a new offense and injuries to their 1st and 2nd string QBs. Their new coach is also trying to make himself a public figure with ridiculous ads in the local LA papers. He needs to focus on recruiting and boosting the talent on his roster. Go bet on some more March Madness pools Rick.
Is UCLA serious with that crap?!?!?! Worse ad ever. The USC band has more 5 star recruits than UCLA has had in the past 10 years combined. Tennessee is the superior team top to bottom and this game does not really need any detail. The line should be in the double digits and we are jumping on it under 10. The ATS numbers:
Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
Volunteers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Volunteers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Volunteers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. SEC.
Bruins are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games.
Bruins are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games in September.
Don’t buy UCLA’s ATS numbers. UCLA is not good and simply does not have the talent to match up with Tennessee. The Vols win this one by more than 10 and if they do not then the SEC is SOFT as hell this year.
We are introducing a new feature this year. Flash Flash and Runny work well together because we only pick games where every single one of our bet criteria are met. This is why we might only focus on 3-8 games each week. It simply means our models do not mesh up. This year we are going to publish our individual picks outside of RPJ Syndicate’s picks. We are not going to give you detailed reasons for our explanations but we are going to track our individual metrics outside of The Syndicate so you can see more picks.
Flash Flash Picks
Illinois (+8.5) at (neutral site but not really) Missouri – One of the best QBs in the nation, Daniel, playing at their home away from home in the Loo. Love Maclin too. Illinois will not be as good as last year minus Mendenhall. Missouri easily wins by more than 10.
Oklahoma St. at Washington St. (+7.5) – Both teams will score but Washington State’s defense is more inept that Oklahoma State’s is and that will be enough for the Cowboys to win by more than 10. Loving Ok. St. in this one.
Bowling Green at Pitt (-13) – Some analysts have picked Bowling Green to win the MAC. They averaged 30.2 points and 402.5 yeards per game last year. Plus, they return their leading QB. However, I just don’t see them competing in the up-and-coming MAC. The architect behind thier offense, O-Coordinator Mick McCall, left to take the same position at Northwestern. Also, their o-line has three new starters. Pitt’s D will eat this up. Pitt has one of the best front 7 in NCAA. Also, Pitt’s D was ranked #5 in total D last year and they return 6 starters. Their D is extrememly deep. Throw in LeSean McCoy and this will be a beatdown. McCoy may drop 200 on them. Take Pitt (-13) all the way to the bank!!!!
Utah (+3.5) @ Michigan – Rich Rodriguez’s Ann Arbor and much anticipated Michigan blue. No doubt he is a phenomenal coach and can get as much out of his players as anyone. I’m a huge fan. However, he can only do so much in so little time. He is implementing his spread offense in a team that just does not have the personnel yet. Rodriguez knows this, and I’m sure he will do the best he can with what he has. Michigan does have a stacked D and return 8 starters, including everyone on their line. They will definitely be the positive in this game for the maize and blue. However, they will be going against a team that runs the spread offense, too. A team that has been doing it much longer and has many more suitable players. QB Brian Johnson is back and finally healthy. This kid has serious wheels and can sling it. To back him up, Sophmore Corbin Louks can come in for a spell much like Tebow did his freshman year. They return their starting RB and a JuCo transfer in Matt Asiata who can run all day. They can guide this offense against Michigan’s D enough to keep this close. It will be the Utes D that stiffles Michigan’s new offense enough to keep it close. Don’t be surprised if the Utes go into Ann Arbor and silence the world’s quietest 100,000+ fans. Take the Utes +3.5. Don’t forget….Ann Arbor is a whore!!!
Enjoy the picks!!!
Flash Flash and Runny
Stay tuned for NFL picks next week. Feel free to post anything you want on this blog or to email us at email@example.com. We are here for our readers and want you to make as much money as possible this season.
We concluded the NCAA Football regular season with a record of 59-54. We were 6-4 on Eva Mendes bets, which were our super bets meaning we bet 5 times our normal unit. This approach led us to win 13 units on the season. Take away the Vig (about 10%) and we are working with with just under 12 units….11.7 to be exact. We would have liked to win more but we won and that is a lot better than other so called “experts can say”.
The reason we started our blog is because we went 19-4 during last season’s Bowl Season. We crushed it!!!! Combining our record with an article in the Wall Street Journal about a sports picker out in Cal-Berkely who was giving away his picks for free and winning at a nice rate. Well this Cal-Berkeley guy made his picks for pay when he had enough of a fan base and he was making $10k a month in his first few months on top of his gambling money. We know our system and our picking are world class and we are revealing all of our picks to you for free. You the reader are reaping the benefits of a free winning system. The point of gambling is not to have more fun while watching games…the point is to make cold hard cash and when you follow us, as we proved during this season, you make cash!!!
Now the point of this Bowl season is to take your/our 11.7 units and turn that into a lot more. We are going to give you specific reasons why we are picking a game and sometimes we might just tell you to pick a game just like we did with our pick of PITT to cover against West Virginia for their December 1 game. Our betting system is based on a trial and tested system and we always put our money where our mouth is with no exceptions.
For this bowl season we are going to set up a system for you where you bet 1,2,3,4,5 and the Super Bet for as many betting units as you are willing to risk. The Super Bet is our 99.99999% lock!! These bets are called:
The Super Bet = The Keyra Shake that Money Maker bet – These will be our super lock bets. The bets we are taking out second mortgages, bank loans, hitting up friends and relatives…you get the picture. Bet as much as you can stomach bets.
5 Unit Bet = The Eva Mendes Bet – We love us some Eva and think she is a Goddess. Since we renamed the Brinks truck bet the Eva Mendes we went 3-1 with it.
4 Unit Bet = The Shakira Hips Don’t Lie bet- We love us some Shakira and her hip shaking bits. In honor of this Columbian love ma-cheen, we named one of our bets after her. For the Shakira bets, place 4 times your typical unit of bet.
3 Unit Bet = The Dahm Triplets bet-A lot of great things come in threes. The Dahm Triplets are no exception. Indeed, they are Dahm hot!! For these bets, bet 3 times your typical betting unit… one for each one of these lovely ladies. Be sure to send the vig to their parents as thank you for gracing us with them. The world is definitely 3 times better since they were delivered from the heavens.
2 Unit Bet = The Derek Jeter Bet – In honor of one of our favorite athletes, the 2 unit bet will be a tribute to all of the women Derek Jeter has allegedly slept with including, Jessica Biel, Scarlett Johanson, Mariah Carey, Anna Kournikouva, Miss Universes, models, etc…. We have a ton of chicks to choose for this bet in honor of our man Derek Jeter.
1 Unit Bet = The Heidi Klum bet. You know she is hot but her judgement must be suspect cause she married one of the ugliest human beings outside of Scottie Pippen, Sam Cassell and Charlie Weis (of course we took a dig at Notre Dame in this blog). We love the Heidi Klum but something is off with her judgement so we are only comfortable making her a a one unit bet.
Below is the schedule for all bowl games this season. We are going to pick as many games as our system spits out. Do not expect us to pick every game but we will have action on most of them. We will probably post our picks on this blog 1-2 days before each bowl. Please feel free to ask us any questions or post comments on this blog. Our email is firstname.lastname@example.org.
Flash Flash and Runny
2007-08 College Football Bowl Schedule
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia
Utah (-9) vs. Navy
Dec. 20, 9 p.m.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Memphis (+2) vs. Florida Atlantic
Dec. 21, 8 p.m.
Southern Miss vs. Cincinnati (-11)
Dec. 22, 1 p.m.
New Mexico Bowl
Nevada vs. New Mexico (-3)
Dec. 22, 4:30 p.m.
Pioneer Las Vegas
UCLA vs. BYU (-5.5)
Dec. 22, 8 p.m.
Boise State (-10.5) vs. East Carolina
Dec. 23, 8 p.m.
Purdue (-9.5) vs. Central Michigan
Dec. 26, 7:30 p.m.
Pacific Life Holiday
Arizona State (+1.5) vs. Texas
Dec. 27, 8 p.m.
Boston College (-3) vs. Michigan State
Dec. 28, 5 p.m.
TCU vs. Houston (+3.5)
Dec. 28, 8 p.m.
Maryland vs. Oregon State (-4.5)
Dec. 28, 8:30 p.m.
Meineke Car Care
UConn vs. Wake Forest (-3.5)
Dec. 29, 1 p.m.
UCF vs. Mississippi State (+3)
Dec. 29, 4:30 p.m.
Penn State vs. Texas A and M (+5.5)
Dec. 29, 8 p.m.
Alabama (-3.5) vs. Colorado
Dec. 30, 8 p.m.
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces
California (-4) vs. Air Force
Dec. 31, 12:30 p.m.
Georgia Tech (-4.5) vs. Fresno State
Dec. 31, 2 p.m.
South Florida (-6.5) vs. Oregon
Dec. 31, 2 p.m.
Gaylord Hotels Music City
Kentucky (-1) vs. Florida State
Dec. 31, 4 p.m.
Indiana vs. Oklahoma State (-4.5)
Dec. 31, 6 p.m.
Clemson (-2.5) vs. Auburn
Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m.
Wisconsin vs. Tennessee (-3.5)
Jan. 1, 2008, 11 a.m.
AT and T Cotton
Missouri (-3.5) vs. Arkansas
Jan. 1, 2008, 11:30 a.m.
Texas Tech vs. Virginia (+5.5)
Jan. 1, 2008, 1 p.m.
Michigan vs. Florida (-10.5)
Jan. 1, 2008, 1 p.m.
Rose Bowl presented by Citi
Illinois vs. USC (-13.5)
Jan. 1, 2008, 4:30 p.m.
Hawaii vs. Georgia (-9.5)
Jan. 1, 2008, 8:30 p.m.
Oklahoma (-6.5) vs. West Virginia
Jan. 2, 2008, 8 p.m.
Virginia Tech (-3) vs. Kansas
Jan. 3, 2008, 8 p.m.
Rutgers (-9.5) vs. Ball State
Jan. 5, 2008, Noon
Bowling Green vs. Tulsa (-4)
Jan. 6, 2008, 8 p.m.
Allstate BCS Championship Game
LSU (-6) vs. Ohio State
Jan. 7, 2008, 8 p.m.
We were 4-2 last week but missed our Brinks Truck bet so the Brinks Truck is in the shop this weekend getting tuned up. What we do have is 9 great picks for you this weekend. Because we are always up front and honest…we are 24-18 on the season, 3-3 for Brinks Truck bets and we are up 6 units. The 6 units is a joke and we plan on turning that around ASAP.
For our nine picks this week, we are going to break them down into 4 betting categories. First up is the ” Clean Sweep”. The clean sweep means a team meets our statistical betting criteria. The public data we share with you for the clean sweep is the following:
Offensive rushing yards per game
Offensive 3rd down efficiency
Defensive rushing yards given up per game
Defensive 3rd down efficiency
When a team meets these 5 figures they win more times than not because they control the clock, can move the ball, stop opponents from controlling the clock, stop opponents from moving up and down the field and do not turn the ball over.
The Clean Sweep Games of the Week:
1) Cincy @ Pitt (plus 9.5) – Cincy is going to be very pissed off following their loss to Louisville and PITT just can not get anything going. Even Navy passed all over them last week. Yes Navy passed the ball successfully on PITT. In what could be a turn of events that actually helps PITT, their coach, Dave Wannstedt, tore his achilles tendon and will probable coach the game from the press box. We saw what good old Dave was able to do against Navy and that was coach his team out of a win. Being in the press box and away from the players and flow of the game might help PITT. However, please be serious here, Cincinnati is ninth in the country in scoring average at 40.6 points per game, while Pitt has given up an average of 42.0 points in its last three contests. This game will be ugly. Ride Cincy and their 5 and 1 record against the spread. Easy cash in this one.
2) Miss St. @ West Virginia (minus 24) – Plain and simple stats for this one. Miss. St. can not stop the run and turns the ball over. West Virginia should have no problem taking control of this game. West Virginia is coming off a bye and Pat White should have had plenty of time to get healthy. Last year and on the road, West Virginia won 42-14. We expect this game to be even more ugly. Mountaineers mount the boys from Mississipp and make em squeal like pigs.
3) Kansas @ Colorado (plus 3.5) – Kansas is becoming one of our favorite teams and is undefeated against the spread at 5 and 0. Last year Kansas won 20-15 and this year’s team is a lot better. Colorado just lost 47-20 to the same Kansas State team Kansas beat. This spread should really be over 10. Jayhawks splatter their poo all over the Buffs.
4) Texas @ Baylor (plus 25) – We saw what Kansas could do against Baylor, a 58-10 win and Texas should whoop them even worse. Baylor might be competitive against the cellar dwellers like Notre Dame but they will be hooked by the Horns. Texas in a blowout.
5) Oregon @ Washington (plus 11.5) – Oregon is really hot. We see this as a parallel to the USC team that lost to CAL in 3-OT a few years back. After that loss the Trojans went on a tear, ultimately destroying Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Well this Oregon team, after suffering a disappointing loss to Cal is on fire after destroying Wash. St. 53-7 last week. Oregon is probably the most explosive team in the Pac-10 and will continue to prove it this week. Ducks blow out Washington by more than 20.
6) Oklahoma @ Iowa St. (plus 29.5) – Iowa St. is the Sooners’ red headed step child. All time they are 66-5-2 in the series. What a freakin joke. So the question is not will Oklahoma win but by how much. The Cyclones lost to Texas 56-3 last week and we expect a similar score. Easy win for the Sooners.
The “Wash” Game of the week
Sometimes we look at a game and do not see one clear winner that stands out meaning the teams are essentially even. We have one such game this weekend.
7) Tennessee @ Alabama (pick em) – Tennessee rushes for 19 more yards a game and the teams are equal in offensive 3rd down conversions. On defense, Alabama is a little better against the run and the teams are even in third down conversion percentage. Turnover ratio favors Alabama 6 to 1 and we think this will be the difference. This game dropped to pick em and we love not having to worry about points, picking the home team and the team that turns the ball over less. Roll Tide Roll. Alabama wins this game.
The SEC Road Cover of the Week
8) Auburn @ LSU (minus 10.5) – The SEC has had some great games the last few weeks and the number one lesson to learn is to not bet on the favorite in the higher spread games. Auburn’s defense proved they can play with the Florida offense and will have no problem with the LSU offense. We do not think Auburn wins but we know they will keep it closer than 10.5 points. Against ranked teams Auburn keeps it close; 3 points with South Florida, 3 points with Florida, 2 points with Arkansas. Take Auburn and the points and watch as they strike fear into another SEC team.
The Fever Game
9) Central Michigan @ Clemson (minus 16.5) – Dancin, Dancin, YEAH!!!! We got the fever for LaFevour once again. Central Michigan has been a cover machine the last three weeks and they covered easily. Our boy Dan LaFevour has the Chippewas playing aggressive football and we think they can keep it close with Clemson and certainly closer than the 16.5 points they are getting. Look at these numbers, this game is too easy: Chippewas are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in October. Chippewas are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Chippewas are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Chippewas are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win. Chippewas are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. And then we get to look at Clemson: Tigers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on grass. Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Tigers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. Tigers are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
If these numbers do not convince you to get the Fever for LaFevour than you are in the wrong business. Stop betting, send us your money and in return we will send you a jar of tiddly winks.
On a side note, we both go to the USC/Notre Dame game in South Bend every two years and this weekend will be no different. We normally would put out a prediction on this game but Runny wants to bet USC cause he hates ND and Flash wants to bet ND cause USC has been dog vomint for three weeks in a row. We both think USC wins easily and the Trojans defenders might actually physically kill a Notre Dame player because their offense is so terrible. Notre Dame would be better off playing 11 of those little leprechauns from the Lucky Charms commercial cause USC is going to physically dominate them. Also, if you see two drunk USC clowns in the Notre Dame alumni tent feel free to say hello. We will be the ones double fisting bloodies and beers and heckling the demented leprechaun lovers. How in the hell can BC be favored by 13.5 points in South Bend and the Trojans opened at 20.5 points. At least they dropped down to 18 and continue to go down but give me a freakin break. If Vegas were legit at setting lines this game would have an 8-10 point spread.
*****10/19/2007***** We needed to post this story about USC…Trojans endure harrowing flight
This is big news. There is one other game we can remember this year where this happened and it was when Southern Miss travelled to Boise St and got blown out 38-16 and did not cover the 10.5 point spread. Please remember that these guys are kids and they just were on a plane where they thought they were going to die. It is not surprising that I have seen some “experts” actually pick ND for an outright win now after this news was announced. We still think USC wins but Flash thinks this is even more reason why ND will cover. Runny absolutely refuses to give ND any credit and still is on the USC to cover bandwagon. We are here to share info and we feel like this is important betting information that needs to spread.
We hope you enjoy the picks. We have been winners for 6 of the 7 weeks of the NCAA season and we love our picks this week. If you want any picks from us or reasons why we did not bet a game let us know. Simply post a comment and we will get back to you within a couple of hours. Our money is always where our mouth is and that means we share the fruits of our labor with you,our readers.
Flash Flash and Runny
USA Today put out their annual pre-season NCAA college football coaches poll today and this thing is a joke. Based on this disgrace I am not even going to bother paying attention to this poll this season. The SEC bias as being the toughest and best league in football has now breached the ranks of this poll. Lets take a look to see what I am talking about.
Now scroll down to the bottom to see who the coaches are in this poll. I am actually going to paste this info in so you can see (Please note names in bold):
The USA TODAY Board of Coaches is made up of 60 head coaches at Division I-A institutions. All are members of the American Football Coaches Association. This season’s board: Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech; Mike Bellotti, Oregon; Bret Bielema, Wisconsin; Larry Blakeney, Troy; Bobby Bowden, Florida State; Tommy Bowden, Clemson; Jeff Bower, Southern Mississippi; Art Briles, Houston; Mack Brown, Texas; Bill Callahan, Nebraska; Neil Callaway, UAB; Lloyd Carr, Michigan; Mario Cristobal, Florida International; Sylvester Croom, Mississippi State; Bill Cubit, Western Michigan; Mark Dantonio, Michigan State; Butch Davis, North Carolina; Bill Doba, Washington State; Randy Edsall, Connecticut; Dennis Franchione, Texas A&M; Phillip Fulmer, Tennessee; Jeff Genyk, Eastern Michigan; Joe Glenn, Wyoming; Jim Grobe, Wake Forest; Dan Hawkins, Colorado; Pat Hill, Fresno State; Steve Kragthorpe, Louisville; Mike Leach, Texas Tech; Rocky Long, New Mexico; Sonny Lubick, Colorado State; Bill Lynch, Indiana; Doug Martin, Kent State; Les Miles, LSU; Shane Montgomery, Miami (Ohio); Hal Mumme, New Mexico State; Joe Novak, Northern Illinois; Houston Nutt, Arkansas; Tom O’Brien, North Carolina State; George O’Leary, Central Florida; Gary Patterson, TCU; Chris Petersen, Boise State; Mark Richt, Georgia; Mike Riley, Oregon State; Rich Rodriguez, West Virginia; Greg Schiano, Rutgers; Howard Schnellenberger, Florida Atlantic; Mark Snyder, Marshall; Frank Solich, Ohio; Steve Spurrier, South Carolina; Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee State; Bob Stoops, Oklahoma; Jeff Tedford, California; Joe Tiller, Purdue; Bob Toledo, Tulane; Dick Tomey, San Jose State; Jim Tressel, Ohio State; Tommy Tuberville, Auburn; Charlie Weis, Notre Dame; Tyrone Willingham, Washington; Ron Zook, Illinois.
Ok what did you notice? I noticed 7 SEC coaches are part of this poll, that is more than 10% of the entire group of coaches. Now lets take a look and see how many SEC teams received votes/points:
LSU = 1,372
Florida = 1,278
Georgia = 604
Auburn = 595
Tennessee = 583
Arkansas = 360
South Carolina = 90
Alabama = 16
Kentucky = 1
So what do these numbers tell us? They tell us that the coaches gave points to 9 out of 12 teams in the SEC. This is a complete joke. There were not even 9 SEC teams that finished with an overall winning record last year. Who are these SEC coaches trying to fool? It is more sour grapes and complaining by the likes of Les Miles. These coaches are making excuses for their teams; excuses that their schedules are SOOOOOO hard that they deserve a break at the end of the year and should be playing in meaningful BCS games. Well last time I looked you need to play the schedule and conference games you were dealt and if you perform well in those games than you deserve to play for a title. Instead of the majority of SEC coaches scheduling tough out of conference opponents like Southern Cal, they are taking the easy route and hiding behind the likes of Tulane, Middle Tenn St. and the Louisiana, Lafayettes of the world and saying that their conference schedules are SOOOOOOOO extremely difficult that they can schedule Western Wahoo St. for homecoming to give their players a break. Just look around the country you blinded Southern boys….USC is doing a home and away with Ohio St. Notre Dame is picking up Oklahoma for a series. This is the way to beef up a schedule and to gain respect. These 7 coaches that are part of the USA Today poll are simply trying to raise the profile of their programs and their league and they should be held accountable. Keep in mind this is the same poll that gave Duke (0-12 last year) and Memphis (2-10 last year) points this year. Cocahes’ picks should be made public for all to see.
I can not wait for this season to start and all eyes will be on the CAL/TENN early season matchup to see just how good the SEC and Pac-10 really are. I am hoping Tennessee is the favorite in this game so I can bet the farm on CAL. This is a revenge game and CAl will show up in the first half this time around.
Stay tuned for our NCAA preview and NFL preview picks.
- Adrian Peterson
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- Akron Zips
- Alabama Crimson Tide
- Alabama Tide
- Angelina Jolie
- Angie Harmon
- Anna Kournikova
- Appalachian State
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- Arizona State
- Arkansas Razorbacks
- Arkansas State
- Atlanta Falcons
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- Ball State
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- BBF OMG
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- Brad Childress
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- Britney Spears
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- Buffalo Bills
- BYU Cougars
- Carmen Luvana
- Carmine's in St. Louis
- Carolina Panthers
- Casey Dick
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- Central Florida
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- Chad Pennington
- Charlie Weis
- Charlotte Bobcats
- Chase Daniel
- Chicago Bears
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- Chris Berman
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- ESPN SUCKS
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