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2008 NFL Week 5: Monday Night Winning Picks – Two Way Action

Greetings folks. Rough weekend for your’s truly, but RPJ laid another winner. I love tonight’s match-up, and I like my chances of making a strong comeback with two picks for you. Here it goes:
 
Minnesota @ New Orleans (-3); OVER/UNDER 47: The Vikes riding into the Crescent City fresh off their tough loss to the undefeated Titans. The Saints are riding high after their beatdown of the 49ers. What will give? To me, the key to this game is the Saints D, or lack thereof. They cannot stop anyone. They have given-up an average of 25 points per game, and their schedule has not been exactly tough. With the exception of Denver, they have not faced a team with an explosive offense (Tampa, Washington and San Fran). That is too many points to give-up against those teams. This means a HUGE day for Adrian Peterson. He will steamroll this defense and put the Vikings over the hump. FACTS: Saints are 1-15 ATS after scoring 28 or more points in back-to-back games against teams that are less than .500 and the Saints are 1-11 ATS at home against teams that are off an away game. I’m taking the Vikings +3
 
I also like the Under in this one. Common sense would say take the over because the Saints cannot stop anyone. However, the Vikings can. Despite giving up over 20 points per game, their D is much better than people think. The Titans game was a fluke, and they showed what they are really all about by holding the Colts to 18 and Carolina to 10. The Saints will be without Colston, Patten and Shockey. This will hurt them tremendously. The Vikes will ground and pound with Peterson. This game will be low scoring. I’m taking the UNDER 47.
 
Good luck with your picks.
 
Runny

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October 6, 2008 - Posted by | Betting, ESPN, Free NFL Picks, Gambling, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, NFL, NFL Picks, Sports, Winning Picks

4 Comments »

  1. Gotta disagree with ya on this one Runny. If anything, I think over 47. I’m gonna pass on the over/under and taking the Saints minus 3

    Comment by Wizard | October 6, 2008 | Reply

  2. I have the Vikes +3 as well, but take issue with your FACTS.
    Where did you get those?

    1-11 ATS?
    The Saints are at home. OK, that situation comes up about 1/2 of the time.
    Now you trim down those results to the Saints facing teams coming off a road game? That’s it? Obviously that’s happened more than 12 times. I’m guessing it’s well over 50 times.

    The Saints failed to cover in that situation once last year (week 16 vs. the Eagles) and once the year before (week 17 vs. the Panthers) so that 1-11 ATS angle is wrong.

    I think you are on the right side, but a little loose with the facts.

    Comment by OMAR | October 6, 2008 | Reply

  3. Omar,

    Thank you for your comment and for checking us out. The stats I gave were based on the last 4 years. I’m pretty confident about the research and my numbers. If I am wrong, it is unintentional. I’m standing behind those numbers as I backed these picks with my own scratch.

    Thanks again.

    Runny

    Comment by runnypelvisthefat | October 7, 2008 | Reply

  4. Just trying to help.
    Bad information in this game is a killer for both your rep and your bankroll. I checked the database for the last four years, and that angle is now at 4-4 ATS, which is nowhere near 1-11. Just a heads up, that whoever gave you those angles is full of shit. An angle that simple is easy to prove, so it’s not like it’s my word against theirs.

    Feel free to delete this post and the one above. It was not my intention to call you out, make you look bad, or anything like that.

    Comment by OMAR | October 8, 2008 | Reply


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