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NFL WEEK 4 2008 PICKS: MONDAY NIGHT MADNESS!!!!!

Greetings folks. As a group, we went 6-0 yesterday on our picks. That’s right…6-0!!! You can’t beat that and we knew we would recover. We are about to go 7-0 and this is what I like:

Runny Pick

Ravens @ Steelers (-6): Flash is not rollin’ with me on this one. This game did not pass one of his models, but I feel very good about it with mine. Another great Monday Night match-up of two bitter division rivals. These teams play each other hard and usually knock the snot out of one another. Both teams limp into this one with the Steelers being banged-up on the offensive side and the Ravens being hobbled on D. What will give?

There are two things that stand out to me about this game. The first is that this is Joe Flacco’s first road start. He hasn’t left Baltimore yet, and he is about to be thrown into the fire. The Steelers will give him a ton of looks he has never seen before. Flacco has looked good, but this game is different. He is not going up against the Bungles and the disappointing Browns. My take is never trust a rookie QB in a rivalry game on the road on Monday Night.

Which leads me to the next thing that stands out: the line. For bitter division rivals that pound each other, this line is huge. The Ravens have the league’s best D. They are 2-0 and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the Steelers. No way this line should be that high. However, it is and it yet again points to VEGAS KNOWS!!! I think this game is a trap. I’m not falling for it. Take the Steelers -6.

Good luck with your picks.

Runny

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September 29, 2008 - Posted by | Baltimore Ravens, Bengals, Betting, Browns, ESPN, Free NFL Picks, Gambling, Monday Night Football Picks, NFL Picks, Pittsburgh Steelers, Sports, Steelers, Winning Picks

10 Comments »

  1. Explain this “VEGAS KNOWS” statement that i see you and others make? What do they know? My take is that they don’t know anything except trying to “predict” a line that will garner 50% action on each side. I’m thinking that they knew a lot of people would take Pittsburgh even at -6 thinking that people would think as you and I did. Am I missing something?

    Comment by Wizard | September 30, 2008 | Reply

  2. What we mean by “Vegas Knows” is that they know the teams better than anyone. They also know the betting public better than anyone. It is the sole explanation for why there are Eiffel Tower and Pyramids of Eqypt replicas and $19.99 all you can eat seafood buffets in the middle of the desert. They are seldom off by very much on their lines, and we disagree that they post lines for prediction. We think that is absolutely not the case.

    Vegas posts lines in order to entice the betting public into going a certain way. If they can get one million people to take the Ravens and 3 points, why not get two million more by giving them 6 points if they know the Steelers will win by 7.

    Granted, that didn’t happen last night but it was essentially a backdoor cover by the Ravens. The Steelers came back in the 4th quarter and led by 7 for most of it. Our take is that Vegas knew exactly where to set the line. From the info we found, 71% of the money in the sportsbooks were on the Ravens plus the points. If they were predicting, the line would have dropped the more people bet the Ravens because betting one side heavy (towards the Dog in this case)would lead reasonable minds to lower the line (i.e., it is flawed). The exact opposite happened. The line went up.

    It doesn’t always work, but anyone that tells you they can give 100% winners is lying. But, if you can spot the traps and avoid them you can increase your winning percentage exponentially. We try to help you see the traps and give you our info because we want you to fleece Vegas and your bookies. Vegas can’t predict the future, but they are THE premier indicators on how good teams are and they know how to manipulate people. It is really brilliant.

    Comment by runnypelvisthefat | October 1, 2008 | Reply

  3. Well. I think your wrong on that, although i suspect you have a good model, so i will continue to visit your site. However. Bookmakers ideally try not to have a situation where they will lose money. They do that by trying to have half the money take one side and the other half on the other side. the closer they get to that 50/50, then there is no way for them to lose because they will get their juice. How good teams are only indirectly responsible for what the lines are. That explains why popular teams usually have to give up more points than an equally good non-popular team because they know “Fans” will bet on their team regardless of a slightly skewed line, i.e Dallas, NE, ND, Yankees. Guys like you have models that look at the numbers and guys like me who visually look, recognize that the numbers dont support the line that vegas puts out. That’s why bookmakers can constantly make the yankees a heavy favorite all year knowing that actual Yankee performance doesnt justify the line, Same with Josh Beckett this year. I am sure there are valid reasons why the line wouldn’t move. Also keep in mind that their is a risk in moving a line too much because they could be stuck in the middle where they are paying the score hits between both ends. Several books and links on this like the one on wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bookmaker. Like I implied earlier, People like you and I try to find where the line is totally out of line of how good the teams are, past results, etc. We then take advantage of that delta eventhough we may not understand how Vegas has the line where it is. 🙂

    Comment by Wizard | October 1, 2008 | Reply

  4. hmmm. I just wrote a long response but it didnt post. fvck. Well let me just type a short version base on your comment “Vegas posts lines in order to entice the betting public into going a certain way”. Initially they set the line to get equal money on both sides. You can see this in any book or link on Bookmaking. like this one http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bookmaker
    If the betting is leaning to one side, then what you said is true in that they line usually moves to get more money to bet the other way

    Comment by Wizard | October 1, 2008 | Reply

  5. http://www.gamblingplanet.org/GPEditorial_070107a

    Look at “how do they make money” section. 🙂

    Comment by Wizard | October 1, 2008 | Reply

  6. http://www.gamblingplanet.org/GPEditorial_070107a
    Look at the section “how do they make money”

    Comment by Wizard | October 1, 2008 | Reply

  7. I agree with what you say but there is one catch. If they set the lines to get equal money on each side then they do not make any money but the Vig because the 50/50 washes out the other side. Very rarely do games get bet at 50/50 and we all know Vegas exists to make money. For example, the USC line moved last week from 24 to 24.5 to 25 to 25.5. Why did it do this? Because all of the money went on USC and Vegas wanted to try and even out their books. Vegas made a killing on the game when the Beavers took down the Trojans. It is very rare but the “trap” games we are talking about happen once in awhile and not every week. In the same example, if USC was getting heavy action and the line went from 24 to 23 to 22 and Vegas kept going down, this is what we mean by Vegas knows something. An oddsmaker is basically telling the casinos to keep taking action on the heavy side and it will not matter. This is certainly fishy and we look long and hard when we find these games.

    Hope that clears it up some more.

    Flash

    Comment by Flash Flash for the Cash | October 2, 2008 | Reply

  8. “If they set the lines to get equal money on each side then they do not make any money but the Vig because the 50/50 washes out the other side”

    Exactly. That is the goal. The goal is to basically not care who wins, because your gonna make money regardless. When your dealing with several bets and several million, 10% is a huge chunk of change to put in your pocket when if you did your line right, you risked nothing.. Your USC example is a good example of how they move the line in order to balance out the money. They arent trying to make money based on the outcome of the game, they are trying to make money regardless of the outcome.

    You guys got any thoughts on Thursday and Friday night games? I’d like to see your thoughts posted on those Thur/Friday night games eventhough you may not bet on them. A lot of people like myself may bet, so your input could be valuable.

    Comment by Wizard | October 2, 2008 | Reply

  9. I think we are agreeing with each other on the basis for sports book money making 101. The only thing you have not addressed in our scenario is the flip side of the bet…when money is going to the side the line is going against. If a team is getting 75-100% of the action and Vegas is not adjusting the line up and is in fact adjusting the line down to get more action on the side the money is going to then Vegas is indicating that it is comfortable increasing its 50/50 spread for that game. Why they do this is beyond comprehension but if you bet with them on these games you make money more than you lose. I would love to hear your insight on this but it is clear that Vegas is taking more action on one side and is comfortable in doing so.

    I am working on my NFL picks right now but Runny should be on in about 45 minutes to give you some notes on the games tonight.

    Thursday Friday games did not hit my models this week.

    Comment by Flash Flash for the Cash | October 2, 2008 | Reply

  10. Wizard,

    Thanks for checking with us. Check out our post for tonight’s games. I took SFLA, UAB and Utah. Flash stayed away, so I’m by myself. You can read my reasoning.

    For Friday’s games, I’m still undecided. I know Flash doesn’t like either game and I’m leaning towards staying away from both. If I do anything, it will be on the BYU game only (Marshall and Cinncy are too terrible to get good reads on them). BYU should destroy Utah State, but getting 28.5 points on the road is a ton of points to give. I’m still researching it and I will let you know. Just check back.

    Good luck with anything you go with. Hope we can help.

    Runny

    Comment by runnypelvisthefat | October 2, 2008 | Reply


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