RPJ Betting Syndicate

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NFL PLAYOFF PICKS: WILD CARD WEEKEND (PART TWO)

The last two games on tap for Wild Car Weekend pit the Giants against the Bucs and the Titans in San Diego against the Chargers. These two games are our favorites so far. We love the lines and the way Vegas has moved the lines all week!! Beware of the trap this time!! Remember, VEGAS KNOWS!!! Here is our take on each:

Giants @ Buccaneers -3: After nearly ending the Pats’ run at perfection last week, the Giants are definately the sexy pick in this one. Eli looked a lot like his big bro and Osi and Strahan played liked men possessed. On the other hand, the Buccaners have been extremely inconsistent as of late-losing their last two to the 49ers and Panthers. Yet, they are the favorites at home.

On paper, the teams are pretty even. The Giants have a a better offense, but the Bucs have a better D. Makes it tough to get an angle with the stats. How about the ATS numbers? Here you go:

GIANTS:

  • Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
  • Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
  • Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
  • Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Giants are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
  • Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
  • Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Giants are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Giants are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
  • Giants are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
  • Giants are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.
  • BUCS:

  • Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
  • Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
  • Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
  • Buccaneers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
  • Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
  • Buccaneers are 14-6-2 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Buccaneers are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Buccaneers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
  • Buccaneers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0.
  • The ATS numbers are pretty close, too, with maybe a slight edge towards the Giants. What gives?

    If you read our stuff, you know the answer to that question….yeap…VEGAS KNOWS. We can’t say that enough. This line opened with the Bucs being only 1 point favorites. However, as the week progressed, most of the money went towards the Giants. In particular, (at the time of this post) nearly 60% of the money is on the Giants to cover and OVER 90% of the money is on them to win outright!! OVER 90% AND THE LINE STILL INCREASED!!! We’ve seen this many times before. This is a trap!! Vegas wants you to keep hammering the Giants. Don’t do it!!

    Vegas knows this game will come down to defense and QB play. As mentioned above, the Bucs have good advantage on D, so they win that match-up. In regards to the QB play, Eli is terrible. He looked good last week against a Pats D that is mediocre, at best. The Bucs D is much better. Much better. Plax won’t be open as much as he was last week. Watch for Ronde Barber to have a good game. We think the Bucs win by double digits. Take the Bucs -3.

    Titans +10 @ Chargers: The Titans surprised us by making the playoffs this year. We admit that we are not fans on Vince Young, but we love the way the Titans play. Despite winning their division with a 11-5 record, the Chargers have had a disappointing season. This team was predicted to win 15 games this year. However, they are rolling right now and LT is amazing. He pretty much saved Norv Turner his job.

    The sexy pick in this game is the Chargers. No one is giving the Titans a chance. At the time of this post, 79% of the money is on the Chargers to cover the spread an nearly all the analysis on TV is about how much the Chargers will roll. After all, the Titans are injured. They have no offensive threats (Vince Young is a game time decision and Roydell Williams is out). The Chargers have a TON of offensive weapons and their D plays lights out.

    However, we are looking past this. On any given Sunday, any team can beat any team. We know Jeff Fisher is telling his team that and he is a master motivator. We also think he is an infinitely better coach than Norv Turner. Fisher always finds away to get it done with no help. Even with his Super Bowl team that nearly beat the then unstoppable Rams, he really had no (We don’t think Eddie George was anywhere near as good as LT) weapons. He still gets it done.

    We think this game will come down to coaching and QB play. We already told you how we feel about the coaches. The key will be the QBs. We think Philip Rivers is a joke and his history (although brief) shows he in not a good playoff QB. He will turn the ball over. Look for Kyle Vanden Bosch and Albert Haynesworth to have big games for the Titans. LT will go nuts for the Chargers. Ultimately, we think the massive injuries the Titans have will slow them down and cost them the game, but we think they will keep it close. Keep in mind that the Titans nearly beat them last month. We love the 10 points. Take the Titans +10.

    January 6, 2008 - Posted by | Eli Manning, Free NFL Picks, Free NFL Wild Card Picks, New England Patriots, NFL, NFL Picks, Patriots, San Diego Chargers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee, Titans

    6 Comments »

    1. Tough day guys. You will get em week.

      Comment by Rion Hubbard | January 7, 2008 | Reply

    2. Thanks for the good words. 0-4!! I can’t remember a playoff weekend like that for us ever. Insane.

      Comment by runnypelvisthefat | January 7, 2008 | Reply

    3. ive lost alot of faith in you guys. looks like youll be doing picks for free for awhile

      Comment by chowder | January 8, 2008 | Reply

    4. Believe us, we agree we are on a bad run. We are geting terrible beats. We’ve had it in the past (it is awlays a cycle) but never this bad. We have faith that we can turn it around. Still a lot of games to be played.

      Comment by runnypelvisthefat | January 8, 2008 | Reply

    5. Everyone has a down year. Work those kinks out of the system and come back strong next year. Do you guys not pick college bball?

      Comment by Rion Hubbard | January 8, 2008 | Reply

    6. We’ll work it out. We are looking forward to next year (as always). Generally, we don’t pich college BBall games. It is not because we don’t follow it closely-we do. Its just a ton of work with handicapping the games so it usually conflicts with our schedules. If there are games you want us to look at though, let us know. We’ll give you our thoughts.

      Comment by runnypelvisthefat | January 8, 2008 | Reply


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