RPJ Betting Syndicate

http://www.rpjsyndicate.com

1/7/2008 BCS Title Game: Tomorrow’s headline reads…..Ohio State Wins National Championship and Celebrates With Hot Chicks

We are sitting at 10-11 with a a recommendation to select Rutgers to win their Super Bowl versus Ball State. Not where we wanted to be and especially not what we were expecting after picking ATS winners at a 19-4 clip last bowl season. We are assigning this free winning pick a 2 unit value and we will throw in numerous hot chicks with our pick.

Ohio State versus LSU (-4) in the BCS Championship Game

Well lets get the bitching out of the way. Georgia wanted to be in this game but could not get to their own conference championship, Hawaii was the only undefeated team but it was via a scheduling farse, USC demonstrated true coaching arrogance going for it on 4th down in the red zone and playing a QB with a broken hand against Stanford, Oklahoma won the Big 12 and Stoops showed how he sucks with his bowl preparation, Virginia Tech could not win their bowl game and Kansas could not get to their own conference championship game. So all of these teams were bitching at the end of the year but we have to think the BCS got it right. Ohio State only had one loss and the Big 10 gets the media street cred and LSU lost two heartbreakers in triple OT. Whether or not you think this is right, it is what we are stuck with. To ease your tension, check out this hottie, Miss Megan Gale:

megan_gale.jpg

Did that work you USC, Georgia, Kansas fans? I bet it did.

We are kind of perplexed with the action around this game. LSU opened at minus 5.5 and even went up to minus 6 in some places and now is sitting at minus 3.5. This game is essentially a home game for LSU and most “experts” right at the end of the regular season said LSU would walk all over Ohio State. Now it seems like people have conducted some research and all of the action is going to Ohio State. We want to go through the ATS numbers first here and then get into it…

Ohio State
Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf.
Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
Buckeyes are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Buckeyes are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games overall.
Buckeyes are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win.
Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Buckeyes are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win.
Buckeyes are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. SEC.

The one negative that sticks out is that Ohio State is 0-4 against the SEC in their last 4 games and we all remember last year’s 41-14 drubbing that Florida put on them. All in all though, most of the ATS numbers are positive. Positive on turf, in bowl games, as an underdog, versus teams with winning records, etc…

LSU
Tigers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games on turf.
Tigers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games.
Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
Tigers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall (we got TENN at -7.5).
Tigers are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Tigers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Tigers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

Pretty interesting huh? LSU has a lot more negative ATS trends including 2-8 in their last ten games and 1-6 against teams with a winning record. Appears to be a team that is not riding high into the title game. They were 0-3 against the spread to end the season. Everybody likes to point to LSU’s nasty defense and fast skill players on offense as reasons LSU was #1 for most of the season and favored to play in the BCS title game. The Tigers rank third in the nation in total defense and 20th in scoring defense with 19.6 points per game. LSU’s defense also ranks fourth in the nation in turnovers gained and is fifth in interceptions with 21. This stat really comes out when you compare turnover ratio….LSU is at +18 for the season and Ohio State is at minus 1. Since LSU’s defense is a high point, lets check out some of their on campus talent:

lsu-group.jpg

Maybe she will lend us some of her paint or let us finger paint her….

lsu-paint.jpg

Well some might argue that Ohio State’s defense is actually better than LSU’s. Ohio State led the way in total defense allowing 227.6 yards against per game, scoring defense of 10.7 points per game, passing defense of 148.2 yards per game and ranked third in rushing defense of 79.4 yards per game (remember this stat; if you are avid readers you immediately know why). One thing to point out is that it is obvious that LSU played a harder schedule and far more dynamic offenses during the year than Ohio State did and this likely skewed the defensive numbers. For reasons unknown, but for reasons that clearly helped Ohio State, the Buckeyes played a joke a schedule against the likes of Youngstown State, Akron, Washington and Kent State and during a year when the Big Ten was not good. This is a one year anomaly because Ohio State goes to USC next September 13. However, it is fact that this cupcake schedule helped Ohio State reach this game. LSU was not much better in scheduling because the SEC is known for scheduling out of conference cream puffs. At least LSU invited Virginia Tech to play in Baton Rouge and deserves the credit for that. Just to equally represent the girls of the Big 10, check out the fighting spirit of these Buckeyes going into the Michigan game….

ohio-state.jpg

So we know both defenses are excellent and are loaded with players that will play on Sunday. What about the offenses? Lets take a look:

Points scored
Ohio State – 32
LSU – 38.7

Total Yards
Ohio State – 398.3
LSU – 448.2

Passing
Ohio State – 195.8
LSU – 229.2

Rushing
Ohio State – 202.5
LSU – 218.9

How about them Apples? LSU wins across the board. Why is this relevant…..because of the offensive jinx! In four of the last five BCS title games (Florida broke the trend last year), the winning team had fewer yards of total offense during the season. Edge Ohio State. Offense has proven to lose out to the superior defense. Next point, the team that allows fewer points per game has won five of the last 6 BCS title games (Florida broke this streak last year ranking 6th to Ohio State’s 5th ranking). Edge Ohio State. There is a big gap this year because Ohio State is #1 giving up 10.7 points per game and LSU is #21 giving up 19.6 points per game.

One more thing to comment on is QB play. This is Ohio State QB, Todd Boeckman’s, first bowl game. Troy Smith got the start last year. Boeckman’s numbers are not that great: 2,164 yards, 23 TDs, 12 INTs and a 64.3% completion percentage. He is also not very mobile and has not played well against teams that really came after him. In each case he was bailed out by RB Chris Wells. Arkansas showed that you can run on LSU, especially with a banged up Glen Dorsey. What we do know is that Boeckman is an excellent game manager, is durable and does not make the terrible mistakes that have plagued some QBs this bowl season (right Va. Tech?). There seems to be some sort of glamour behind LSU’s QB tandem. Matt Flynn is a fifth year senior, knows as a great QB and athletic runner and the “experts” like to tell us that he will play on sundays. We see a different player. He is banged up and has a tendancy to get injured, he is not efficient and completed only 55% of his passes. His other numbers are 2,164 yards, 17 TDs and 10 INTs. He is also not really a mobile QB because he only ran for 246 yards and 4 TDs and averaged 3.0 yards per carry. Is that Vincy Young dangerous? We think not. Perrilloux seems like the better QB and he will not get the start. Perrilloux threw for 694 yards, 8TDs, 2 INTs and completed 68% of his passes. Perrilloux had 30 less carries than Flynn and ran for 203 yards and 2 TDs. Les Miles should have switched to Perrilloux early in the season when he was able to witness Flynn’s mediocrity but he is too stubborn and stayed with the senior.

We could sit here and go through the individual player matchups, special teams, coaching etc….but the fact will remain that we simply think Ohio State is the better team. We gave you the ATS numbers, we gave you statistical numbers and we have two more points to bring up.

Point 1 – Since the BCS was introduced no team has ever lost two title games in a row. The only situation where a team lost one year and came right back to the title game was the Florida Gators and they easily won the second time around. Ohio State was in this game last year, they know what to expect and how to prepare and will come out with guns blazing.

Point 2 – Teams that give up less than 100 yards rushing on defense and are the underdog win their bowl games outright 75% of the time. As goofy as this is it works… See Penn State and USC last year and we just saw what Kansas was able to pull off. Ohio State is that team this year.

We think you know which way we are going with this. We do not see many, if any, reasons that point to LSU in this game. Our money is on the Buckeyes. Ohio State covers and probably wins outright!!!

Since we know of Les Miles’ rants against USC and the Pac-10 and since we just picked them to lose outright as favorites, we thought Mr. Miles would enjoy wearing this shirt….

ashley_fusc1.jpg

Have fun with the shirt Mr. Miles cause if you get out of the SEC you are going to face USC in the championship game. Yes, that was our first prop bet of 2008…..USC Trojans will be your next national champ.

It has been a great year. Thanks for your support.

Flash Flash and Runny

January 5, 2008 - Posted by | BCS, Betting, Big 12, Buckeyes, ESPN, Football, Free NCAA picks, Les Miles, LSU, LSU Tigers, Megan Gale, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Ohio State, SEC, Winning Picks

14 Comments »

  1. SEC fan here Flash. Going with LSU. Where did you find the college fan pictures?

    Comment by Rion Hubbard | January 5, 2008 | Reply

  2. Who is Megan Gale? She is smokin

    Comment by Rion Hubbard | January 5, 2008 | Reply

  3. Megan Gale is some actress we came across. She was rumored for the new wonder woman or something like that. We get the chick fan pics from our boy that publishes Poon of the Sec, Poon of the Pac-10, Poon of the Big 10, etc….

    What are your reasons for betting LSU? We can’t find them.

    Comment by Flash Flash for the Cash | January 5, 2008 | Reply

  4. Like I said, I’m an SEC fan. I went to S. Carolina and have seen LSU play. They have had time to rest that tough defense. I didn’t cap this game at all. Just instinct. Maybe I can get a low number and you guys get 5.5 to 6 and we both cash in with a middle. Good luck either way. Thanks for your insight.

    Comment by Rion Hubbard | January 5, 2008 | Reply

  5. I checked out your boys poon site. Not too bad. There could definitely be some better south carolina poon on there. If you have never been to a GA, USC, or Florida game, you are missing out. These southern chicks are something else.

    Comment by Rion Hubbard | January 5, 2008 | Reply

  6. Do you still live in SC?

    Comment by runnypelvisthefat | January 6, 2008 | Reply

  7. We are now 11-11 on this bowl season. This BCS game will make or break us. Can not believe we are .500. Take out our 2-7 first week and we kicked ass at 9-4 to come back. Nothing we could have done, our system played itself out around .500 for the season and we are doing the same in the bowl season. Apologies for not making you more money.

    Comment by Flash Flash for the Cash | January 6, 2008 | Reply

  8. What Runny? Yes, I still live in good ole SC. I’m in Columbia. We should have cashed in on Jax last night. WTF.

    Comment by Rion Hubbard | January 6, 2008 | Reply

  9. Should have read, what up Runny. Sorry

    Comment by Rion Hubbard | January 6, 2008 | Reply

  10. “LSU quarterback Matt Flynn passed for four touchdowns as second-ranked LSU (12-2) won its second national title in five seasons.”
    Way to go Matt Flynn you did us proud!!

    Tigers 2007/2008 Champs!!

    Comment by Steve J | January 8, 2008 | Reply

  11. Rion,

    I hear you about the Jags. If ever there was a game to prove that the NFL is fixed, that was it. I think everyone and their mother bet the Jags. Figures they blew it. Haven’t made our picks for this weekend yet, but Flash and I are thinking the Jags get crushed.

    Comment by runnypelvisthefat | January 10, 2008 | Reply

  12. What it is Runny? Yeah, that game appeared to have some outside influence. I’m NE also. I have made money on Jax all year, but the Pats should come out swinging. I will jump on this before the line gets above 13.5. I have been killing it in college bball this week, so I plan on playing smart this weekend. Look forward to your picks for the weekend. Hope Flash is doing good. Haven’t seen his post in a while.

    Comment by Rion Hubbard | January 11, 2008 | Reply

  13. Rion,

    Yo. We finished our work for the NFL this wekeend. We are definitely taking the Pats. Flash and I will have a detailed post with our NFL picks later today, but we love the Pats. The final of that game may resemble the beatdown they gave the Skins. We are also taking the Giants, the Packers and the Colts. Of those, we like the Giants the least. The over may be the better play in that game, but we generally stay away from over/unders. We love the Colts and the Packers.

    The strange thing about the lines is that they are begging you to take the dogs in all the games. That could be the trap.

    Nice job on bball. Keep us posted on your bball picks. We are definitely interested. We were a little surpised USC got the beatdown they got last night. We are thinking of getting back into NBA. Now that the footbal season is nearly over, we will have more time on our hands.

    Flash is around. He has just been swamped with other stuff.
    What are you taking in NFL this weekend?

    Good luck.

    Runny

    Comment by runnypelvisthefat | January 11, 2008 | Reply

  14. I am here. Just still depressed form LSU winning the BCS championship game. What a crock this season was. I can name ten teams that would have beat Ohio State. That title was a gift on a silver platter.

    NFL has been funny. Last year the favorites won big throughout the playoffs and took Vegas down and Vegas is setting the same lines this time around. Just like Runny said…Vegas is begging bettors to bet the underdog. We are going to follow the smart money as you saw our picks in Runny’s post.

    I am also working on a NCAA football recap. Some interesting things out there. I just heard that on average the best, not the johnny come latelies, but the best NCAA football handicappers averaged 53% picking winners this year and the super elite were only at 57%, This was a crazy year so I actually feel good with how we did.

    Comment by Flash Flash for the Cash | January 11, 2008 | Reply


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