RPJ Betting Syndicate

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NFL PLAYOFF PICKS: WILD CARDS ARE IN THE WEEKEND (PART ONE)!!!!

Just as the NFL regular season and the college football season rolls to an end, the glorious tournament know as the NFL Playoffs kicks right into gear!!! We love this time of year! Teams sell out in last ditch efforts to squeak into the post season (i.e., the Skins and Titans) while others teams dominate from wire-to-wire and coast in (i.e., the Pats and Boys). Whatever team tickles your fancy, there is plenty of drama and info that needs to go into the handicapping. Luckily for you, that is why we are here! Our season record for the regular season stands at 62-60-1. Very pedestrian and very much like the teams mentioned above who squeaked in. However, like the Skins and Titans, we are in and ready to go. Let the games begin!!!

Here are our take on the Wild Card games:

Skins +3.5 @ Seahawks: The Skins travel to Seattle to kick-off the Wild Card weekend. The Skins have undoubtedly rallied around their fallen teammate and have played some inspired football as of late. A few weeks ago, probably everyone outside of the DC area would have punched you in the liver if you told them the Skins would make the playoffs. They are playing lights out right now. How about Todd Collins?!?!?! If you would have told the same person that he would be the QB leading the charge, I’m sure you would have earned yourself and punch in the neck, too. All punches aside, the Skins are a force to be reckoned with right now.

The Skins have covered and won outright their last 4 games. Two of those games were on the road against their hated NFC East rival NY Giants and a super hot (at the time) Vikings team. Looking past those games, the Skins lost quite a few (lost their previous 5 out 0f 6). Included in those games was the Decimation Bowl where the Pats hung 52 on them. That Pats game aside, the Skins average margin of loss in those games was only 5 points. Not too shabby.

The Seahawks have stumbled as of late. They lost a shootout against a terrible Falcons team in Week 17, granted the Seahawks had nothing to win or lose in that game. However, they have a great passing game and have a HUGE homefield advantage. It is an advantage that cannot be overlooked.

Right now, our analysis calls this a toss-up. Each team has advantages. Here are some ATS numbers for you:

SKINS:

  • Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
  • Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.
  • Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
  • Redskins are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
  • Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
  • Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in January.
  • Redskins are 19-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • ‘HAWKS:

  • Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
  • Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
  • Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
  • Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on field turf.
  • Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
  • Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
  • Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
  • Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
  • Both teams have impressive ATS numbers. Very impressive. So, what gives?

    The key is to first ask THE question. If you read our stuff, you will know what we are talking about. Vegas set this line at 3.5. it opened at -5, but has settled down to -3.5. The line dropped due to the heavy action on the Skins money line. Typically, home field advantage is worth about 3 points. So, for a line at -5 it typically means that Vegas thinks Seattle is only a 2 point better team if this was on a neutral field. For these two teams, we agree. We don’t think there are any traps in this game.

    To get our winner, we look to the match-ups. Statistically, the teams are pretty close in nearly every category. The key match-up will be the Hawks passing attack against the Skins secondary. No doubt the Skins will shut down the Hawks run. They will have to pass to win. This means it will come down to Hasslebeck against Landry, Springs, Smoot and Dougty. We think the Skins are up to the challenge. Without the running game, the Skins secondary will eat the Hawks alive.

    We also think the Skins are playing out of their minds right now and are not happy with just making the playoffs. They are hungry and they are playing for #21. Plus, they played in the NFC East which is a MUCH tougher division than the NFC West. Not even close. So, even-though the stats are similar, they went about completely different ways of getting them. The Skins played the two other playoff teams twice (Boys and Giants) as well as the Eagles. The Hawks played the 49ers twice. Terrible.

     We think the Skins cover and win outright. We love the points. Take the Skins +3.5.

    Jags -2.5 @ Steelers: The Jags have been amazing!! It is about time Fred Taylor got some credit!!! They roll into the ‘Burgh for the 2nd time in a month to face the Steelers. In their last meeting, the Jags pulled off the upset, winning 29-22. No doubt the Steelers are awesome at home, however, the Jags are no fluke. Neither was their win.

    Here are some ATS numbers for you:

    JAGS:

    JAC are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.

  • JAC are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • STEELERS: 

  • PIT are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • HEAD-TO-HEAD:

    Home team is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 meetings.

    Pretty good stats for the Steelers. However, we just think the Jags roll again. The Steelers are banged-up, but the Jags just punish teams. We also think the Jags QB will play better and is less apt to make mistakes. Turnovers will be key in this game and we think the Jags will win this battle. Take the Jags -2.5.

    Good luck!

    Runny & Flash

    January 5, 2008 Posted by | Free NFL Picks, Free NFL Wild Card Picks, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jaguars, NFL, NFL Picks, Pittsburgh Steelers, Seahawks, Seattle | 2 Comments

    1/7/2008 BCS Title Game: Tomorrow’s headline reads…..Ohio State Wins National Championship and Celebrates With Hot Chicks

    We are sitting at 10-11 with a a recommendation to select Rutgers to win their Super Bowl versus Ball State. Not where we wanted to be and especially not what we were expecting after picking ATS winners at a 19-4 clip last bowl season. We are assigning this free winning pick a 2 unit value and we will throw in numerous hot chicks with our pick.

    Ohio State versus LSU (-4) in the BCS Championship Game

    Well lets get the bitching out of the way. Georgia wanted to be in this game but could not get to their own conference championship, Hawaii was the only undefeated team but it was via a scheduling farse, USC demonstrated true coaching arrogance going for it on 4th down in the red zone and playing a QB with a broken hand against Stanford, Oklahoma won the Big 12 and Stoops showed how he sucks with his bowl preparation, Virginia Tech could not win their bowl game and Kansas could not get to their own conference championship game. So all of these teams were bitching at the end of the year but we have to think the BCS got it right. Ohio State only had one loss and the Big 10 gets the media street cred and LSU lost two heartbreakers in triple OT. Whether or not you think this is right, it is what we are stuck with. To ease your tension, check out this hottie, Miss Megan Gale:

    megan_gale.jpg

    Did that work you USC, Georgia, Kansas fans? I bet it did.

    We are kind of perplexed with the action around this game. LSU opened at minus 5.5 and even went up to minus 6 in some places and now is sitting at minus 3.5. This game is essentially a home game for LSU and most “experts” right at the end of the regular season said LSU would walk all over Ohio State. Now it seems like people have conducted some research and all of the action is going to Ohio State. We want to go through the ATS numbers first here and then get into it…

    Ohio State
    Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
    Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
    Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf.
    Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
    Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
    Buckeyes are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
    Buckeyes are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
    Buckeyes are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
    Buckeyes are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games overall.
    Buckeyes are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
    Buckeyes are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win.
    Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
    Buckeyes are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win.
    Buckeyes are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
    Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. SEC.

    The one negative that sticks out is that Ohio State is 0-4 against the SEC in their last 4 games and we all remember last year’s 41-14 drubbing that Florida put on them. All in all though, most of the ATS numbers are positive. Positive on turf, in bowl games, as an underdog, versus teams with winning records, etc…

    LSU
    Tigers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games on turf.
    Tigers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
    Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games.
    Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
    Tigers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
    Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall (we got TENN at -7.5).
    Tigers are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
    Tigers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
    Tigers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
    Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

    Pretty interesting huh? LSU has a lot more negative ATS trends including 2-8 in their last ten games and 1-6 against teams with a winning record. Appears to be a team that is not riding high into the title game. They were 0-3 against the spread to end the season. Everybody likes to point to LSU’s nasty defense and fast skill players on offense as reasons LSU was #1 for most of the season and favored to play in the BCS title game. The Tigers rank third in the nation in total defense and 20th in scoring defense with 19.6 points per game. LSU’s defense also ranks fourth in the nation in turnovers gained and is fifth in interceptions with 21. This stat really comes out when you compare turnover ratio….LSU is at +18 for the season and Ohio State is at minus 1. Since LSU’s defense is a high point, lets check out some of their on campus talent:

    lsu-group.jpg

    Maybe she will lend us some of her paint or let us finger paint her….

    lsu-paint.jpg

    Well some might argue that Ohio State’s defense is actually better than LSU’s. Ohio State led the way in total defense allowing 227.6 yards against per game, scoring defense of 10.7 points per game, passing defense of 148.2 yards per game and ranked third in rushing defense of 79.4 yards per game (remember this stat; if you are avid readers you immediately know why). One thing to point out is that it is obvious that LSU played a harder schedule and far more dynamic offenses during the year than Ohio State did and this likely skewed the defensive numbers. For reasons unknown, but for reasons that clearly helped Ohio State, the Buckeyes played a joke a schedule against the likes of Youngstown State, Akron, Washington and Kent State and during a year when the Big Ten was not good. This is a one year anomaly because Ohio State goes to USC next September 13. However, it is fact that this cupcake schedule helped Ohio State reach this game. LSU was not much better in scheduling because the SEC is known for scheduling out of conference cream puffs. At least LSU invited Virginia Tech to play in Baton Rouge and deserves the credit for that. Just to equally represent the girls of the Big 10, check out the fighting spirit of these Buckeyes going into the Michigan game….

    ohio-state.jpg

    So we know both defenses are excellent and are loaded with players that will play on Sunday. What about the offenses? Lets take a look:

    Points scored
    Ohio State – 32
    LSU – 38.7

    Total Yards
    Ohio State – 398.3
    LSU – 448.2

    Passing
    Ohio State – 195.8
    LSU – 229.2

    Rushing
    Ohio State – 202.5
    LSU – 218.9

    How about them Apples? LSU wins across the board. Why is this relevant…..because of the offensive jinx! In four of the last five BCS title games (Florida broke the trend last year), the winning team had fewer yards of total offense during the season. Edge Ohio State. Offense has proven to lose out to the superior defense. Next point, the team that allows fewer points per game has won five of the last 6 BCS title games (Florida broke this streak last year ranking 6th to Ohio State’s 5th ranking). Edge Ohio State. There is a big gap this year because Ohio State is #1 giving up 10.7 points per game and LSU is #21 giving up 19.6 points per game.

    One more thing to comment on is QB play. This is Ohio State QB, Todd Boeckman’s, first bowl game. Troy Smith got the start last year. Boeckman’s numbers are not that great: 2,164 yards, 23 TDs, 12 INTs and a 64.3% completion percentage. He is also not very mobile and has not played well against teams that really came after him. In each case he was bailed out by RB Chris Wells. Arkansas showed that you can run on LSU, especially with a banged up Glen Dorsey. What we do know is that Boeckman is an excellent game manager, is durable and does not make the terrible mistakes that have plagued some QBs this bowl season (right Va. Tech?). There seems to be some sort of glamour behind LSU’s QB tandem. Matt Flynn is a fifth year senior, knows as a great QB and athletic runner and the “experts” like to tell us that he will play on sundays. We see a different player. He is banged up and has a tendancy to get injured, he is not efficient and completed only 55% of his passes. His other numbers are 2,164 yards, 17 TDs and 10 INTs. He is also not really a mobile QB because he only ran for 246 yards and 4 TDs and averaged 3.0 yards per carry. Is that Vincy Young dangerous? We think not. Perrilloux seems like the better QB and he will not get the start. Perrilloux threw for 694 yards, 8TDs, 2 INTs and completed 68% of his passes. Perrilloux had 30 less carries than Flynn and ran for 203 yards and 2 TDs. Les Miles should have switched to Perrilloux early in the season when he was able to witness Flynn’s mediocrity but he is too stubborn and stayed with the senior.

    We could sit here and go through the individual player matchups, special teams, coaching etc….but the fact will remain that we simply think Ohio State is the better team. We gave you the ATS numbers, we gave you statistical numbers and we have two more points to bring up.

    Point 1 – Since the BCS was introduced no team has ever lost two title games in a row. The only situation where a team lost one year and came right back to the title game was the Florida Gators and they easily won the second time around. Ohio State was in this game last year, they know what to expect and how to prepare and will come out with guns blazing.

    Point 2 – Teams that give up less than 100 yards rushing on defense and are the underdog win their bowl games outright 75% of the time. As goofy as this is it works… See Penn State and USC last year and we just saw what Kansas was able to pull off. Ohio State is that team this year.

    We think you know which way we are going with this. We do not see many, if any, reasons that point to LSU in this game. Our money is on the Buckeyes. Ohio State covers and probably wins outright!!!

    Since we know of Les Miles’ rants against USC and the Pac-10 and since we just picked them to lose outright as favorites, we thought Mr. Miles would enjoy wearing this shirt….

    ashley_fusc1.jpg

    Have fun with the shirt Mr. Miles cause if you get out of the SEC you are going to face USC in the championship game. Yes, that was our first prop bet of 2008…..USC Trojans will be your next national champ.

    It has been a great year. Thanks for your support.

    Flash Flash and Runny

    January 5, 2008 Posted by | BCS, Betting, Big 12, Buckeyes, ESPN, Football, Free NCAA picks, Les Miles, LSU, LSU Tigers, Megan Gale, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Ohio State, SEC, Winning Picks | 14 Comments

    1/5/2008 – Free NCAA Bowl Pick and Hot Chicks: Rutgers Versus Ball State

    Well we are scrapping along here now at 10-11 on the bowl season. We were 2-7 so this has been a nice 8-4 run through the second week of bowl season. We are doing our best to make this a money making bowl season and we are going to mix it up a bit and throw out some hot chicks that we have not normally banked on.

    First off…major apologies to our man Rion…Lily Thai is hot and very talented. We found a PG version of a youtube clip and then a 30 minute porn clip on redtube that we are going to link to. If you have not seen this chick in action, we recommend you take a peak at both videos. She works it hard!!! Thanks for the heads up Rion. We know we have avid readers out there and we want more suggestions of hot chicks. Our readers are clearly in the know!!!

    The PG video:

    Click here for the Lily Thai porn video. You will not be disappointed.

    Rutgers (-11) versus Ball State in the International Bowl

    We are kicking this off with a Derek Jeter bet….

    2 Unit Bet = The Derek Jeter Bet – In honor of one of our favorite athletes, the 2 unit bet will be a tribute to all of the women Derek Jeter has allegedly slept with including, Jessica Biel, Scarlett Johansson, Mariah Carey, Anna Kournikouva, Miss Universes, models, etc…. We have a ton of chicks to choose for this bet in honor of our man Derek Jeter. This bet is in honor of his former gal pal Miss Scarlett Johanson, one of Runny’s favorites.

    scarlett_johansson_boobs.jpg

    Well this is not your high profile end of bowl season #1 versus #2 matchup but we do think it provides a mismatch and a lucrative betting opportunity. There are some story lines to pay attention to. Both coaches were rumored for the Michigan job and both remain with their programs. Ball State is playing its first bowl game in 11 years and is 0-4-1 in their history in bowls. Rutgers is in its third bowl in a row and coming off their first bowl win in the program’s history.

    Ball State is 0-3 against teams from BCS conferences this season but did cover the spread in two of those games and its most memorable game of the year was a 41-40 loss in Lincoln against Nebraska. The Cardinals were underdogs of 24 ½ points in that late September game in which Nebraska needed a late touchdown to pull out the win. The reason this game was close, besides the obvious that Nebraska sucked as bad as Notre Dame this year, was the fact that Nebraska could not stop the pass at all. Ball State QB, Nate Davis, threw for 422 yards and three TDs. Bowling Green ended the year as the 21st ranked pass offense in the nation. Why is this game important….Rutgers owns the No. 2 defense against the pass this season, allowing a mere 160.6 yards per game. The Knights have been even stingier over their past three games when they allowed just 150 passing yards per game. When you combine this pass versus pass defense matchup and then throw in the fact that Ball State’s defense gives up almost 197 yards per game on the ground and we have a recipe for disaster. The offense is the real strength of Rutgers, which ranked 26th in the nation in yards per game with 437.2 and 190 yards per game on the ground. Ray Rice is going to run all over Ball State and that will help set up the play action pass. Running back Ray Rice has been one of the most overlooked players in the nation for the past two seasons. He ranks No. 3 in the country in rushing and has seven more yards and five more touchdowns than Heisman Trophy finalist Darren McFadden. Makes you think doesn’t it?

    Lets look at the ATS numbers before revealing our winning pick:

    Ball State
    Cardinals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
    Cardinals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
    Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
    Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
    Cardinals are 11-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
    Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
    Cardinals are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
    Cardinals are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
    Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

    Rutgers
    Scarlet Knights are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
    Scarlet Knights are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
    Scarlet Knights are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
    Scarlet Knights are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
    Scarlet Knights are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
    Scarlet Knights are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss.
    Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

    Some scary numbers from both squads. Ball State has a good coach and you can see that he gets his team to play up to their competition and especially out of conference. Rutgers has a great coach as well and gets his team to play well out of conference, as big favorites and following losses. We do not think the ATS numbers are relevant for this game and simply lead to a coin flip situation for which stats you want o pay attention to.

    Rutgers and Ball State have faced one common opponent this season and both came away with a victory. The Cardinals beat Navy in overtime on Sept. 15, 34-31 while the Scarlet Knights pummeled the Midshipmen the week before 41-24. Not so relevant but showed that Rutgers was better against the common opponent.

    What might just give Ball State a chance to compete with Rutgers’ potent attack is a ball-hungry defense that has 18 interceptions this season. Those picks helped the Cardinals finish third in the country in turnover margin behind only Florida Atlantic and Kansas. We do not need to remind you that FAU and Kansas both won their bowl games and covered.

    There are definitely some points for Ball State that make you think, especially the way underdogs have played this bowl season and especially big underdogs with USC the lone double digit favorite that won. We think this game is different though. Rutgers’ rushing offense versus the non existent rushing defense of Ball State will help Rutgers control the offense and the Rutgers pass defense versus Ball State’s pass offense should slow down the Ball State offense. These two factors are key and we think this could turn into a blow out.

    Rutgers wins big and covers!!!

    Flash Flash and Runny

    P.S. If you want more action on this game take the Over. The line is below both team’s scoring average by 2 points and MAC teams played to the over more than any other conference this year. Think Purdue vs. Central Michigan. We are not staking our reputation on this bet but that is how we would lean and Runny is less confident than Flash so we did not bet it.

    January 5, 2008 Posted by | Ball State, Ball State Cardinals, BCS, Betting, Big East, Free NCAA picks, Lily Thai, MAC, Navy, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Notre Dame, Rutgers, Scarlet Knights, Scarlett Johansson, Winning Picks | 4 Comments