NFL Championship Game Picks: Pats Lose in Biggest Upset in NFL History after Tom Brady’s Love Child Rips His Head Off During Pre-game Warmups!
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We knew that headline would get your attention. Our picks might suck but we are not idiots in picking a Pats loss in this one (Read on for our actual pick). We are coming at you with an unusual winning pick selection process for you this time. We simply can not agree on these games and because of this we are not putting any of RPJ Syndicate’s money to work; we are putting our own personal money to work. This is frustrating for us but it is what it is and this happens sometimes and we usually skip the game altogether as you know but because there are only three NFL games left (we are crying literally because of this) we have to put our opinions out there because this is the NFL. Now some of you naysayers out there will call us scam artists because you think we are going to pick both sides and then say we were winners. Well we are not doing this. RPJ Syndicate is a terrible 1-7 in the playoffs so far and these picks will not count for our record because RPJ’s money is not playing these games. Hopefully we can agree on a consensus for the Super Bowl and bet the living hell out of it to recoup some of our losses but time will only tell if that comes true. So to make our crappy picks up with you we are going to show tons of hot chicks in this blog and first up is the beautiful ass of Miss Jessica Alba:
January 20, 2008 – San Diego at New England (-14)
We are going to show you the ATS numbers first for both teams and then we will have our own analysis.
Chargers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Chargers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Chargers are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.
Chargers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Chargers are 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.
Chargers are 46-15-2 ATS in their last 63 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chargers are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Chargers are 27-10-2 ATS in their last 39 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chargers are 43-20-2 ATS in their last 65 games overall.
Chargers are 35-17-3 ATS in their last 55 vs. AFC.
Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Championships games.
Patriots are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 playoff home games.
Patriots are 44-19-2 ATS in their last 65 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Patriots are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games in January.
Patriots are 41-20-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on field turf.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Flash Flash Says: I am going to continue to ride the recent trends and that is a Patriots non-cover. Yes, I know they are 17-0 and the best team in football but they are not cover machines like they were earlier in the season. The weather in Foxboro has limited the Pats ability to stretch the field like they did in the Fall and the Pats are taking a more ball controlled short passing game approach to their offense and this runs the clock out faster and reduces the Pats offensive touches. In addition, every team that plays the Pats knows that they need to limit the Pats touches and employ a ball control offense of their own. The Pats are 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games and the only win was the “guarantee” game against the Steelers. Vegas lines were ridiculous in a lot of these games and that helped the opponents cover but that does not mean the Pats are 14 point favorites against the other elite teams in the AFC. This line is simply too high and Vegas knows the Pats homers will continue to bet on the Pats no matter what. Also, San Diego has not received any credit for their current run and they are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 and riding an 8 game winning streak. The Chargers started slow but you have to remember that they have a completely rehauled coaching staff and two of their early losses were against Green Bay and New England. Expect a ball control game in this one, especially from San Diego. Losing Gates is a big loss for the Chargers. Since the Chargers will play ball control I think the injuries to Rivers and LT will hurt but not as much as people think. Billy Volek will simply be asked to not make mistakes…does this ring any bells? Brad Johnson won a Super Bowl, Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl, Big Ben won and it was not because they had an aggressive offense, it was because they had a great defense and played mistake free offense. Volek can do this. As far as the running game goes, we all know Michael Turner will be a great starter one day and Darren Sprolles showed he has the explosiveness to play a part in any game. Chargers will play a tight, conservative offense and should be able to run on the Pats to keep the chains moving. I do not think the Chargers win but I think they will keep it within ten points in a super cold game. I am definitely interested in the readers opinion on this game because I do not see the reasons why the Pats should cover, even with a banged up Chargers team. That same banged up Chargers team took it to the Colts on the road and can do it again. They Chargers are also the hotter “betting” team. If you have been riding the Pats you have been riding your bankroll down the crapper.I am betting the Chargers and taking the points!!!
Mrs. Flash Flash says: Yes, she is back. She thinks the Pats will not cover the 14 points. She thinks the Pats will not cover because they are unstoppable. Yes, that makes no sense at all and she is half a bottle of wine in. Take it for what it is worth. Mrs. Flash Flash is also coming at you with her top three hottest chicks. First is Miss Sienna Miller:
Chick number 2 is Miss Jessica Biel:
Chick number 3 is Katherine Heigl:
Runny says: Flash has been staring at that pic of Jessica Alba too long and doesn’t have the sense Christ gave a woodchuck. This game should be re-named the “Decimation Bowl” because that is just what the Pats are going to do. Mind you, I DESPISE Tom Brady. I DESPISE Belichek (so much so I threw away all my hoodies). I DESPISE the PATS. I just know a smart thing when I see it. The thing is with this game is that even without the injuries to the Chargers, the Pats still would cover. They destroyed them in Week 2 when they were totally healthy. They will do so again this week.
The Pats were a missed field goal away from covering last week against a Jags team that is much, much better on both sides of the ball than the Chargers. The two weeks off hurt the Pats. They were definitely rusty. Now they will be ready. The Pats are praying that the Chargers blitz Brady and double Moss. Brady will eat that up and hit Wes Welker all game long. The weather will not matter. Look for big games from My Homey Lawrence Moroney, Wes Welker and the Pats secondary. Rivers had the game of his career last week, but that was due to poor execution and poor strategy by the Colts. There is not a receiver on the Chargers that the Pats cannot cover. Chambers will not have a repeat performance.
As much as I hate to say it, the Pats are a team of destiny. They will decimate the Chargers and roll right into the Super Bowl. Take the Pats -14.
January 20, 2008 – Giants at Green Bay (-7)
Coming at you with the ATS numbers first:
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog.
Giants are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff road games.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
Giants are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
Giants are 7-16-3 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Giants are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Packers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Packers are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Packers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games on grass.
Packers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win.
Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Packers are 14-4-2 ATS in their last 20 vs. NFC.
Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
Packers are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
Packers are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Runny Says: The keys to this game are the Giants secondary and the huge home-field advantage. In regards to the Giants secondary, the Packers play sound football and Favre is playing within the system. He is not trying to win the game on every throw. He has confidence in his receivers for the first time in probably 10 years. He has a solid running game backing him and the enitre offense is playing exceptionally well as a team. This does not bode well for an inexperienced and beat-up Giants secondary. Favre and his receivers will do what Romo and his receivers could not do last week; Favre will make the throws and his receivers will catch the ball. The more this happens, the more the running lanes will be free for Ryan Grant. It will snowball into a lot of points for the Pack.
In regards to the Lambeau advantage, the Giants will be playing in an environment they have never seen before. It is going to be FRIGID, with a HIGH of only 4 degrees! You read that right-4 f’ing degrees!! (Is it coincidence that that just so happens to be Favre’s number?!? I don’t think so…). Not only that, they are calling for snow! The Giants will not be prepared for this. They will not be prepared for this crowd.
This would not be a Runny blog post if Keyra did not make an appearance with her fantastic ass…..
Favre and the Pack will get up early and pour it on. Eli will throw a few picks. Look for a big game from the Packers corners. I would not be surprised if one of them take one back for 6. Take the Packers and give the points.
Flash Flash Says:This game really is tough to call in my opinion and that makes it easy. During the NFL season when faced with two awesome opposing forces, you go with the underdog every time. Giants are on a 9 game road winning streak, they are 7-0 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record, Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 January games, Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in their last five home games, Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite, Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 and the list goes on and on. If I were to focus on the only negative ATS numbers the only one that sticks out is that the Packers are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. We know the Giants are the best road team in the NFL this season, with the exception of the Pats and this is a stat to consider. To me these teams are spitting images of each other, they can run, they can run to set up the pass, they have aggressive defenses and they can get after the QB. You can say this about both teams. I like what the Giants coaches have been doing as well. Even though the Giant’s secondary was depleted last week they stuck to their game plan and were content to blitz and man up in the 4th quarter, basically telling their players that they play on Sundays and they have faith in them to make the necessary plays. Great job by Coughlin’s crew. I think the weather will also be a factor in this game and we will all get to see the frozen tundra part II as these teams will play in near zero degree weather. We saw what the Packers offense did in the snow but this will be a lot colder.
It is also important to realize the Manning has bucked up in the last two games by playing not to lose. This is incredibly important in the playoffs. This season is a mish mosh for Manning. Sometimes he seems terrible and completely out of it and other times he leads his team on a quarter ending 75 yard TD scoring drive in 40 seconds. He has learned how to play within himself during these playoffs and I think he has a good mentor (Big Brother Peyton) who learned that putting up 49 TDs and tons of yards is not the key to winning a championship. Playing within yourself and not making mistakes or forcing plays is what keeps the NFL season alive. So will we get he bad decision making drunk Eli:
The drunk Eli will make poor decisions like getting a picture of him taken while he was drunk out of his mind with some little blond hottie or will we get the smart, low-key Eli who marries his college sweetheart and not some whore during a drunken night out. The picture below is Eli’s wife:
I think the Packers win a close game in the 17-14 range. I am betting the Giants with the points!!!
Some of you degenerates out there might know already but the AVN awards went down last weekend out in Vegas. So I want to focus on some porn dirty HOs for my pics today. Hello Breasts!!!!
You like Lily Thai, you will like Jasmine Mai:
and a porn pic shot would not be complete withou Carmen Luvana:
Mrs. Flash Flash says:The Mrs. thinks Favre is the american football dream and is predicting a Packers blow out. Yes the American football dream folks.
Only one more game to go this season…..The Super bowl and we will be ready with our pick. We hope you learned a lot about betting and grew to appreciate us this season. We tell it like it is and we put our own money to work with you. We are not some BS service that touts 65% winners all the time cause anybody with a brain knows that is impossible. This was an bizarre season in NCAA and NFL football and we will examine our models and see if we can find any additional strategic points to manipulate next season.
May your pimp hand be strong and your wallets full!!!
Flash and Runny
We were one missed field goal from going 2-0 on Saturday’s games. Settled for 1-1 to bring our playoff record to 1-5. Terrible, but it does feel good to get our first win. Now on to Sunday’s games:
Chargers @ Colts -10: The Colts kick-off their post season at home and rested. With the exception of Dwight Freeney, they are completely healthy. The Chargers, on the other hand, will likely be without one of their offensive studs-Antonio Gates. Even if Gates plays, he will be limited. This is a HUGE loss for the Chargers. HUGE.
We think the Colts roll big in this game. The reason is Philip Rivers. He is not a good QB. He has always struggled in the playoffs, and despite their win last week against the Titans, Rivers looked bad. The Colts are much better than the Titans. Some will argue that this is way too many points to give the Chargers-they have a solid D and any team with LT has a chance to keep a game close. No way. Not this Sunday. These teams played in November with the Chargers squeaking out a 23-21 win. However, that game was in San Diego and Manning had the worse game of his career. Also, the Chargers managed only ONE TD by their offense. ONE, despite picking Manning off 6 TIMES!! The other two TDs were on returns by Darren Sproles. That won’t happen again in this game. The Colts have had 2 weeks off and they will be ready. Look for a HUGE beatdown. Take the Colts -10.
Giants @ Cowboys -7: The super hot Giants head back to Big D for the third time this year. They haven’t won yet, losing both match-ups by a combined total of 21 points. However, this is a much better Giants team. They are running the ball extremely well and Eli looks like his brother. And, they have a new weapon in Ahmad Bradshaw. Things are looking good for the Giants in this game. They are peaking while the Boys are struggling.
The Cowboys have not been a good team as of late. We think that is a product of them pretty much phoning in their season once they clinched their playoff spot and home field. Don’t get us wrong, 13-3 is no fluke, but the Boys have a lot of flaws. They are terrible is pass coverage and they are extremely undisciplined. They will make penalties hat will extend drives for the Giants. Plus, the huge question mark with TO will hinder their entire offense. What will give?
We have gone back and forth all week on this one, but we think in the end the Boys will cover. We have three reasons for this pick:
1). The Giants will be without Shockey. This is a bigger loss than Dallas having no/a limited TO. Even though Eli is playing really well without Shockey now, it will catch up to him in this game. First because the Boys will have their starting corners (Newman and Henry) for the first time all year. They won’t stop Toomer and Plaxico, but they will slow them down, forcing Eli to go to his TE. Kevin Boss is no Shockey. Plus, the Giants will miss Shockey’s run blocking in this one.
2). The Cowboys O-line is MASSIVE. They are road graders and they healthy for the first time in a month. They will hammer the Giants D line and the Boys will be able to run. By the fourth quarter, it will catch-up to them and Marion Barber will be racking-up stats. They have a sour taste in their mouth from their terrible perfromace in Washington to end the regular season. Along with Barber, look for Julius Jones to have a good game, too.
3). The Giants secondary is injured and not that good. It is looking like TO will play. Not to state the obvious, but simply putting TO on the field makes a HUGE difference. Even at 80%. Or even 60%. TO is a play maker and requires constant attention by defensive coordinators. He can handle the Giants corners. Also, the addition of Terry Glenn will be a HUGE positive for the Cowboys. Putting him in the slot will create huge mismatches for the Giants and Jason Garrett is licking his chops. When the Cowboys go to their 3 receiver sets, lookout!!! It will also free-up the running game.
We think the Boys cover. We thing it will be a close cover, but they will do it. The Giants will be able to score, so it will be high scoring. Take the Cowboys -7.
Runny & Flash
Greetings!! The 2nd round of the playoffs kicks off this afternoon. This weekend has some GREAT match-ups. We are lovin’ this!!! Let’s start with the stats: for the regular season, we held a 62-60-1 record and for the playoffs, we are 0-4. We now both those records are bad and not worth posting. It is not stopping us though because we know what lies ahead. This is definitely the weekend of the underdog. ALL of these lines scream for you to take every ‘dog. Vegas is begging you to do it-DON’T!!!! Here is our take on the Divisional Round:
Seahawks @ Packers -7.5: The Seahawks return to Lambeau in the playoffs for the first time since the infamous OT claim “We want the ball and we are gonna score” line. That game did not end well for the Seahawks. Will this one?
The keys to answer that question lie with the defenses for both teams and the incredible home field advantage the Packers have in this game. Can the Seahawks overcome Lambeau and the Packers D? We don’t think so.
No doubt the Packers are clearly the better team. Vegas thinks so, which is really all that matters. They are rested and at home. They have an incredible D line and they are able to generate sacks without the help of their linebackers (Packers had 35 sacks on the season-30.5 came from D linemen). The Seahawks were not as good (45 teams sacks-29 by D linemen). This is a tremendous advantage. This means that the Packers can pressure the QB without bringing extra defenders-defenders that can drop back in pass coverage. This does not bode well for a Seahawks offense that is already banged-up. The Packers secondary will get a couple picks. Aaron Kampman will have a HUGE game.
What about Favre against the Seahawks D? During the regular season, the Seahawks were ranked 15th in the NFL. Last week, they nearly lost to Todd Collins (the game was MUCH closer than the score). Bret Favre is not Todd Collins. He will be able to move the ball. The Packers will be able to run all day. We LOVE the Packers in this game. Go heavy. We think they win by 10. Take the Packer -7.5.
Jags @ Pats -13: This is the game everyone is talking about. We have to admit that back as early as week 6, we thought if the Jags got the Pats in the playoffs they could beat them. They are a physical team with an OUTSTANDING running game. Looking at the games in which the Pats nearly lost, it was due to solid running and very physical defensive play. That is what most of the betting public thinks, too.
Don’t believe the hype!! We love the Jags and hate the Pats, so this pick is hurting us. However, look at the Steelers game last week. The Jags D lost an 18 points lead in the 2nd half. Garrard came back down to earth. We saw a Jags team that could not blitz effectively (we saw them blitz 3 times-every time they did, the Steelers beat them for a TD). You cannot beat the Pats without pressuring Brady. Can’t happen.
The Jags will use Rashean Mathis (and help) to negate Moss. The last team that took that approach and wasn’t able to blitz were the Skins. That game ended 52-7. Also, don’t forget that the Jags also have a rookie (though a good one) playing FS. For all the talk that the Pats don’t have a good D and cannot stop the run, the Pats gave up only 98.1 yards per game on the ground. Not great, but not bad either. They have had 13 days to prepare. They will be ready.
We don’t think this game is close. We think the Pats will get up by 14 early and keep pouring it on. Once they do, the Jags running game will be out the window. We think the Pats win by 20. Take the Pats -13.
Good luck! A post for tomorrow’s games will be out later tonight.
Runny & Flash
The last two games on tap for Wild Car Weekend pit the Giants against the Bucs and the Titans in San Diego against the Chargers. These two games are our favorites so far. We love the lines and the way Vegas has moved the lines all week!! Beware of the trap this time!! Remember, VEGAS KNOWS!!! Here is our take on each:
Giants @ Buccaneers -3: After nearly ending the Pats’ run at perfection last week, the Giants are definately the sexy pick in this one. Eli looked a lot like his big bro and Osi and Strahan played liked men possessed. On the other hand, the Buccaners have been extremely inconsistent as of late-losing their last two to the 49ers and Panthers. Yet, they are the favorites at home.
On paper, the teams are pretty even. The Giants have a a better offense, but the Bucs have a better D. Makes it tough to get an angle with the stats. How about the ATS numbers? Here you go:
The ATS numbers are pretty close, too, with maybe a slight edge towards the Giants. What gives?
If you read our stuff, you know the answer to that question….yeap…VEGAS KNOWS. We can’t say that enough. This line opened with the Bucs being only 1 point favorites. However, as the week progressed, most of the money went towards the Giants. In particular, (at the time of this post) nearly 60% of the money is on the Giants to cover and OVER 90% of the money is on them to win outright!! OVER 90% AND THE LINE STILL INCREASED!!! We’ve seen this many times before. This is a trap!! Vegas wants you to keep hammering the Giants. Don’t do it!!
Vegas knows this game will come down to defense and QB play. As mentioned above, the Bucs have good advantage on D, so they win that match-up. In regards to the QB play, Eli is terrible. He looked good last week against a Pats D that is mediocre, at best. The Bucs D is much better. Much better. Plax won’t be open as much as he was last week. Watch for Ronde Barber to have a good game. We think the Bucs win by double digits. Take the Bucs -3.
Titans +10 @ Chargers: The Titans surprised us by making the playoffs this year. We admit that we are not fans on Vince Young, but we love the way the Titans play. Despite winning their division with a 11-5 record, the Chargers have had a disappointing season. This team was predicted to win 15 games this year. However, they are rolling right now and LT is amazing. He pretty much saved Norv Turner his job.
The sexy pick in this game is the Chargers. No one is giving the Titans a chance. At the time of this post, 79% of the money is on the Chargers to cover the spread an nearly all the analysis on TV is about how much the Chargers will roll. After all, the Titans are injured. They have no offensive threats (Vince Young is a game time decision and Roydell Williams is out). The Chargers have a TON of offensive weapons and their D plays lights out.
However, we are looking past this. On any given Sunday, any team can beat any team. We know Jeff Fisher is telling his team that and he is a master motivator. We also think he is an infinitely better coach than Norv Turner. Fisher always finds away to get it done with no help. Even with his Super Bowl team that nearly beat the then unstoppable Rams, he really had no (We don’t think Eddie George was anywhere near as good as LT) weapons. He still gets it done.
We think this game will come down to coaching and QB play. We already told you how we feel about the coaches. The key will be the QBs. We think Philip Rivers is a joke and his history (although brief) shows he in not a good playoff QB. He will turn the ball over. Look for Kyle Vanden Bosch and Albert Haynesworth to have big games for the Titans. LT will go nuts for the Chargers. Ultimately, we think the massive injuries the Titans have will slow them down and cost them the game, but we think they will keep it close. Keep in mind that the Titans nearly beat them last month. We love the 10 points. Take the Titans +10.
Just as the NFL regular season and the college football season rolls to an end, the glorious tournament know as the NFL Playoffs kicks right into gear!!! We love this time of year! Teams sell out in last ditch efforts to squeak into the post season (i.e., the Skins and Titans) while others teams dominate from wire-to-wire and coast in (i.e., the Pats and Boys). Whatever team tickles your fancy, there is plenty of drama and info that needs to go into the handicapping. Luckily for you, that is why we are here! Our season record for the regular season stands at 62-60-1. Very pedestrian and very much like the teams mentioned above who squeaked in. However, like the Skins and Titans, we are in and ready to go. Let the games begin!!!
Here are our take on the Wild Card games:
Skins +3.5 @ Seahawks: The Skins travel to Seattle to kick-off the Wild Card weekend. The Skins have undoubtedly rallied around their fallen teammate and have played some inspired football as of late. A few weeks ago, probably everyone outside of the DC area would have punched you in the liver if you told them the Skins would make the playoffs. They are playing lights out right now. How about Todd Collins?!?!?! If you would have told the same person that he would be the QB leading the charge, I’m sure you would have earned yourself and punch in the neck, too. All punches aside, the Skins are a force to be reckoned with right now.
The Skins have covered and won outright their last 4 games. Two of those games were on the road against their hated NFC East rival NY Giants and a super hot (at the time) Vikings team. Looking past those games, the Skins lost quite a few (lost their previous 5 out 0f 6). Included in those games was the Decimation Bowl where the Pats hung 52 on them. That Pats game aside, the Skins average margin of loss in those games was only 5 points. Not too shabby.
The Seahawks have stumbled as of late. They lost a shootout against a terrible Falcons team in Week 17, granted the Seahawks had nothing to win or lose in that game. However, they have a great passing game and have a HUGE homefield advantage. It is an advantage that cannot be overlooked.
Right now, our analysis calls this a toss-up. Each team has advantages. Here are some ATS numbers for you:
Both teams have impressive ATS numbers. Very impressive. So, what gives?
The key is to first ask THE question. If you read our stuff, you will know what we are talking about. Vegas set this line at 3.5. it opened at -5, but has settled down to -3.5. The line dropped due to the heavy action on the Skins money line. Typically, home field advantage is worth about 3 points. So, for a line at -5 it typically means that Vegas thinks Seattle is only a 2 point better team if this was on a neutral field. For these two teams, we agree. We don’t think there are any traps in this game.
To get our winner, we look to the match-ups. Statistically, the teams are pretty close in nearly every category. The key match-up will be the Hawks passing attack against the Skins secondary. No doubt the Skins will shut down the Hawks run. They will have to pass to win. This means it will come down to Hasslebeck against Landry, Springs, Smoot and Dougty. We think the Skins are up to the challenge. Without the running game, the Skins secondary will eat the Hawks alive.
We also think the Skins are playing out of their minds right now and are not happy with just making the playoffs. They are hungry and they are playing for #21. Plus, they played in the NFC East which is a MUCH tougher division than the NFC West. Not even close. So, even-though the stats are similar, they went about completely different ways of getting them. The Skins played the two other playoff teams twice (Boys and Giants) as well as the Eagles. The Hawks played the 49ers twice. Terrible.
We think the Skins cover and win outright. We love the points. Take the Skins +3.5.
Jags -2.5 @ Steelers: The Jags have been amazing!! It is about time Fred Taylor got some credit!!! They roll into the ‘Burgh for the 2nd time in a month to face the Steelers. In their last meeting, the Jags pulled off the upset, winning 29-22. No doubt the Steelers are awesome at home, however, the Jags are no fluke. Neither was their win.
Here are some ATS numbers for you:
JAC are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Home team is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 meetings.
Pretty good stats for the Steelers. However, we just think the Jags roll again. The Steelers are banged-up, but the Jags just punish teams. We also think the Jags QB will play better and is less apt to make mistakes. Turnovers will be key in this game and we think the Jags will win this battle. Take the Jags -2.5.
Runny & Flash
1/7/2008 BCS Title Game: Tomorrow’s headline reads…..Ohio State Wins National Championship and Celebrates With Hot Chicks
We are sitting at 10-11 with a a recommendation to select Rutgers to win their Super Bowl versus Ball State. Not where we wanted to be and especially not what we were expecting after picking ATS winners at a 19-4 clip last bowl season. We are assigning this free winning pick a 2 unit value and we will throw in numerous hot chicks with our pick.
Ohio State versus LSU (-4) in the BCS Championship Game
Well lets get the bitching out of the way. Georgia wanted to be in this game but could not get to their own conference championship, Hawaii was the only undefeated team but it was via a scheduling farse, USC demonstrated true coaching arrogance going for it on 4th down in the red zone and playing a QB with a broken hand against Stanford, Oklahoma won the Big 12 and Stoops showed how he sucks with his bowl preparation, Virginia Tech could not win their bowl game and Kansas could not get to their own conference championship game. So all of these teams were bitching at the end of the year but we have to think the BCS got it right. Ohio State only had one loss and the Big 10 gets the media street cred and LSU lost two heartbreakers in triple OT. Whether or not you think this is right, it is what we are stuck with. To ease your tension, check out this hottie, Miss Megan Gale:
Did that work you USC, Georgia, Kansas fans? I bet it did.
We are kind of perplexed with the action around this game. LSU opened at minus 5.5 and even went up to minus 6 in some places and now is sitting at minus 3.5. This game is essentially a home game for LSU and most “experts” right at the end of the regular season said LSU would walk all over Ohio State. Now it seems like people have conducted some research and all of the action is going to Ohio State. We want to go through the ATS numbers first here and then get into it…
Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf.
Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
Buckeyes are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Buckeyes are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games overall.
Buckeyes are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win.
Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Buckeyes are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win.
Buckeyes are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. SEC.
The one negative that sticks out is that Ohio State is 0-4 against the SEC in their last 4 games and we all remember last year’s 41-14 drubbing that Florida put on them. All in all though, most of the ATS numbers are positive. Positive on turf, in bowl games, as an underdog, versus teams with winning records, etc…
Tigers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games on turf.
Tigers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games.
Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
Tigers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall (we got TENN at -7.5).
Tigers are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Tigers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Tigers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Pretty interesting huh? LSU has a lot more negative ATS trends including 2-8 in their last ten games and 1-6 against teams with a winning record. Appears to be a team that is not riding high into the title game. They were 0-3 against the spread to end the season. Everybody likes to point to LSU’s nasty defense and fast skill players on offense as reasons LSU was #1 for most of the season and favored to play in the BCS title game. The Tigers rank third in the nation in total defense and 20th in scoring defense with 19.6 points per game. LSU’s defense also ranks fourth in the nation in turnovers gained and is fifth in interceptions with 21. This stat really comes out when you compare turnover ratio….LSU is at +18 for the season and Ohio State is at minus 1. Since LSU’s defense is a high point, lets check out some of their on campus talent:
Maybe she will lend us some of her paint or let us finger paint her….
Well some might argue that Ohio State’s defense is actually better than LSU’s. Ohio State led the way in total defense allowing 227.6 yards against per game, scoring defense of 10.7 points per game, passing defense of 148.2 yards per game and ranked third in rushing defense of 79.4 yards per game (remember this stat; if you are avid readers you immediately know why). One thing to point out is that it is obvious that LSU played a harder schedule and far more dynamic offenses during the year than Ohio State did and this likely skewed the defensive numbers. For reasons unknown, but for reasons that clearly helped Ohio State, the Buckeyes played a joke a schedule against the likes of Youngstown State, Akron, Washington and Kent State and during a year when the Big Ten was not good. This is a one year anomaly because Ohio State goes to USC next September 13. However, it is fact that this cupcake schedule helped Ohio State reach this game. LSU was not much better in scheduling because the SEC is known for scheduling out of conference cream puffs. At least LSU invited Virginia Tech to play in Baton Rouge and deserves the credit for that. Just to equally represent the girls of the Big 10, check out the fighting spirit of these Buckeyes going into the Michigan game….
So we know both defenses are excellent and are loaded with players that will play on Sunday. What about the offenses? Lets take a look:
Ohio State – 32
LSU – 38.7
Ohio State – 398.3
LSU – 448.2
Ohio State – 195.8
LSU – 229.2
Ohio State – 202.5
LSU – 218.9
How about them Apples? LSU wins across the board. Why is this relevant…..because of the offensive jinx! In four of the last five BCS title games (Florida broke the trend last year), the winning team had fewer yards of total offense during the season. Edge Ohio State. Offense has proven to lose out to the superior defense. Next point, the team that allows fewer points per game has won five of the last 6 BCS title games (Florida broke this streak last year ranking 6th to Ohio State’s 5th ranking). Edge Ohio State. There is a big gap this year because Ohio State is #1 giving up 10.7 points per game and LSU is #21 giving up 19.6 points per game.
One more thing to comment on is QB play. This is Ohio State QB, Todd Boeckman’s, first bowl game. Troy Smith got the start last year. Boeckman’s numbers are not that great: 2,164 yards, 23 TDs, 12 INTs and a 64.3% completion percentage. He is also not very mobile and has not played well against teams that really came after him. In each case he was bailed out by RB Chris Wells. Arkansas showed that you can run on LSU, especially with a banged up Glen Dorsey. What we do know is that Boeckman is an excellent game manager, is durable and does not make the terrible mistakes that have plagued some QBs this bowl season (right Va. Tech?). There seems to be some sort of glamour behind LSU’s QB tandem. Matt Flynn is a fifth year senior, knows as a great QB and athletic runner and the “experts” like to tell us that he will play on sundays. We see a different player. He is banged up and has a tendancy to get injured, he is not efficient and completed only 55% of his passes. His other numbers are 2,164 yards, 17 TDs and 10 INTs. He is also not really a mobile QB because he only ran for 246 yards and 4 TDs and averaged 3.0 yards per carry. Is that Vincy Young dangerous? We think not. Perrilloux seems like the better QB and he will not get the start. Perrilloux threw for 694 yards, 8TDs, 2 INTs and completed 68% of his passes. Perrilloux had 30 less carries than Flynn and ran for 203 yards and 2 TDs. Les Miles should have switched to Perrilloux early in the season when he was able to witness Flynn’s mediocrity but he is too stubborn and stayed with the senior.
We could sit here and go through the individual player matchups, special teams, coaching etc….but the fact will remain that we simply think Ohio State is the better team. We gave you the ATS numbers, we gave you statistical numbers and we have two more points to bring up.
Point 1 – Since the BCS was introduced no team has ever lost two title games in a row. The only situation where a team lost one year and came right back to the title game was the Florida Gators and they easily won the second time around. Ohio State was in this game last year, they know what to expect and how to prepare and will come out with guns blazing.
Point 2 – Teams that give up less than 100 yards rushing on defense and are the underdog win their bowl games outright 75% of the time. As goofy as this is it works… See Penn State and USC last year and we just saw what Kansas was able to pull off. Ohio State is that team this year.
We think you know which way we are going with this. We do not see many, if any, reasons that point to LSU in this game. Our money is on the Buckeyes. Ohio State covers and probably wins outright!!!
Since we know of Les Miles’ rants against USC and the Pac-10 and since we just picked them to lose outright as favorites, we thought Mr. Miles would enjoy wearing this shirt….
Have fun with the shirt Mr. Miles cause if you get out of the SEC you are going to face USC in the championship game. Yes, that was our first prop bet of 2008…..USC Trojans will be your next national champ.
It has been a great year. Thanks for your support.
Flash Flash and Runny
Well we are scrapping along here now at 10-11 on the bowl season. We were 2-7 so this has been a nice 8-4 run through the second week of bowl season. We are doing our best to make this a money making bowl season and we are going to mix it up a bit and throw out some hot chicks that we have not normally banked on.
First off…major apologies to our man Rion…Lily Thai is hot and very talented. We found a PG version of a youtube clip and then a 30 minute porn clip on redtube that we are going to link to. If you have not seen this chick in action, we recommend you take a peak at both videos. She works it hard!!! Thanks for the heads up Rion. We know we have avid readers out there and we want more suggestions of hot chicks. Our readers are clearly in the know!!!
The PG video:
Click here for the Lily Thai porn video. You will not be disappointed.
Rutgers (-11) versus Ball State in the International Bowl
We are kicking this off with a Derek Jeter bet….
2 Unit Bet = The Derek Jeter Bet – In honor of one of our favorite athletes, the 2 unit bet will be a tribute to all of the women Derek Jeter has allegedly slept with including, Jessica Biel, Scarlett Johansson, Mariah Carey, Anna Kournikouva, Miss Universes, models, etc…. We have a ton of chicks to choose for this bet in honor of our man Derek Jeter. This bet is in honor of his former gal pal Miss Scarlett Johanson, one of Runny’s favorites.
Well this is not your high profile end of bowl season #1 versus #2 matchup but we do think it provides a mismatch and a lucrative betting opportunity. There are some story lines to pay attention to. Both coaches were rumored for the Michigan job and both remain with their programs. Ball State is playing its first bowl game in 11 years and is 0-4-1 in their history in bowls. Rutgers is in its third bowl in a row and coming off their first bowl win in the program’s history.
Ball State is 0-3 against teams from BCS conferences this season but did cover the spread in two of those games and its most memorable game of the year was a 41-40 loss in Lincoln against Nebraska. The Cardinals were underdogs of 24 ½ points in that late September game in which Nebraska needed a late touchdown to pull out the win. The reason this game was close, besides the obvious that Nebraska sucked as bad as Notre Dame this year, was the fact that Nebraska could not stop the pass at all. Ball State QB, Nate Davis, threw for 422 yards and three TDs. Bowling Green ended the year as the 21st ranked pass offense in the nation. Why is this game important….Rutgers owns the No. 2 defense against the pass this season, allowing a mere 160.6 yards per game. The Knights have been even stingier over their past three games when they allowed just 150 passing yards per game. When you combine this pass versus pass defense matchup and then throw in the fact that Ball State’s defense gives up almost 197 yards per game on the ground and we have a recipe for disaster. The offense is the real strength of Rutgers, which ranked 26th in the nation in yards per game with 437.2 and 190 yards per game on the ground. Ray Rice is going to run all over Ball State and that will help set up the play action pass. Running back Ray Rice has been one of the most overlooked players in the nation for the past two seasons. He ranks No. 3 in the country in rushing and has seven more yards and five more touchdowns than Heisman Trophy finalist Darren McFadden. Makes you think doesn’t it?
Lets look at the ATS numbers before revealing our winning pick:
Cardinals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Cardinals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Cardinals are 11-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
Cardinals are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
Cardinals are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Scarlet Knights are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
Scarlet Knights are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Scarlet Knights are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Scarlet Knights are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Scarlet Knights are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Scarlet Knights are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss.
Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Some scary numbers from both squads. Ball State has a good coach and you can see that he gets his team to play up to their competition and especially out of conference. Rutgers has a great coach as well and gets his team to play well out of conference, as big favorites and following losses. We do not think the ATS numbers are relevant for this game and simply lead to a coin flip situation for which stats you want o pay attention to.
Rutgers and Ball State have faced one common opponent this season and both came away with a victory. The Cardinals beat Navy in overtime on Sept. 15, 34-31 while the Scarlet Knights pummeled the Midshipmen the week before 41-24. Not so relevant but showed that Rutgers was better against the common opponent.
What might just give Ball State a chance to compete with Rutgers’ potent attack is a ball-hungry defense that has 18 interceptions this season. Those picks helped the Cardinals finish third in the country in turnover margin behind only Florida Atlantic and Kansas. We do not need to remind you that FAU and Kansas both won their bowl games and covered.
There are definitely some points for Ball State that make you think, especially the way underdogs have played this bowl season and especially big underdogs with USC the lone double digit favorite that won. We think this game is different though. Rutgers’ rushing offense versus the non existent rushing defense of Ball State will help Rutgers control the offense and the Rutgers pass defense versus Ball State’s pass offense should slow down the Ball State offense. These two factors are key and we think this could turn into a blow out.
Rutgers wins big and covers!!!
Flash Flash and Runny
P.S. If you want more action on this game take the Over. The line is below both team’s scoring average by 2 points and MAC teams played to the over more than any other conference this year. Think Purdue vs. Central Michigan. We are not staking our reputation on this bet but that is how we would lean and Runny is less confident than Flash so we did not bet it.
We have made a nice turnaround and sit at 9-10 with the Oklahoma West Virginia game still pending (Go Sooners). We think the Orange Bowl will be a great hard nosed football game and we are assigning this a Heidi Klum bet.
1 Unit Bet = The Heidi Klum bet. You know she is hot but her judgement must be suspect cause she married one of the ugliest human beings outside of Scottie Pippen, Sam Cassell and Charlie Weis (of course we took a dig at Notre Dame in this blog). We love the Heidi Klum but something is off with her judgement so we are only comfortable making her a one unit bet.
We are starting off with the arse shot today….
We would love to be her jeweler…
Kansas versus Virginia Tech (-3.5)
This is one of our favorite matchups from a viewing perspective of this Bowl season. Kansas came out of nowhere this year, was the best cover team against the spread all season at 10-1 and have a scrappy QB, a nasty defense and a fun offense but most of all they have the fattest coach in all of college football. This last point can not be overlooked. Trust us on this one. Some pictures in honor of our large hero…the picture is small but the man is not:
Do not mess with this man…if you backed him this year you made money 10 of 11 times. One more shot…
Virginia Tech is tough year in and year out and plays Beamer ball to perfection, which means they play tough defense and incredible special teams and usually eeek out enough on offense to win games. This game sets up a classic matchup of offense against defense… the Hokies’ No. 2 nationally ranked scoring defense (15.5 points against per game) meets the Jayhawks’ No. 2 scoring offense (44.3 points per game). Lets check out the ATS numbers before we get into it…
Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
Jayhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
Jayhawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Hokies are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Hokies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Hokies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
Hokies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Hokies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Hokies are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 Thursday games.
Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Hokies are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Hokies are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS win.
Hokies are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Hokies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Hokies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Lots of positives to point out for both of these teams. The only thing to really pick on is the Hokies losing their last 5 out of conference games against the spread and losing their last 4 against the spread when they fail to rush for 100 yards in their previous game. We also know that the Hokies managed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games and were favored in all but one of those contests once they figured out how to use their two headed QB machine. Lets break it down…
Coach – This one is tough to call because Beamer is always good and the nation is just learning about Mangino who was voted AP Coach of the Year……No Advantage
Offense – The Jayhawks are second in the nation in scoring with 44.3 points per game and sixth in total yards per game at 491.1. The Hokies average 29.3 points per game and 332.5 yards per game……Advantage Kansas
QB – Kansas has Todd Reesing, a sophomore, has completed 62.6% of his passes for 3,259 yards, with 32 touchdowns and six interceptions. Virginia Tech has a two headed monster at QB with junior Sean Glennon and freshman Tyrod Taylor and neither have the numbers of Reesing……Advantage Kansas
Defense – The Hokies finished the regular season ranked second nationally in points allowed per game at 15.5 and fourth in yardage allowed at 293.3. The Hokies are third in the nation with 43 sacks and tied for fifth with 21 interceptions, returning five for touchdowns. Kansas is close in these categories giving up 16 points per game and 318.2 yards per but close does not win the matchup…..Advantage Virginia Tech
Turnover ratio – Kansas actually caused more turnovers and won the turnover ratio battle +19 to Virginia Tech’s +13…..Advantage Kansas
Special Teams – Virginia Tech rules this category nationally every year. No debate needed…..Advantage Virginia Tech
Motivation – This one is tough because we feel that both teams will be highly motivated. Kansas has had to endure playing a schedule that did not include Oklahoma and Texas and their strength of schedule was 109 out of 119. This is out of their control and they played who was scheduled but they are still hearing that they do not deserve to be in this game, especially after losing to Missouri to end their season. So Kansas has a chip on their shoulder and is in a we are going to prove ourselves mode. We think Mangino will get the boys fired up to come play. Virginia Tech has been playing all year as national heroes after 32 members of their community were gunned down in a senseless murder spree last year. Virginia Tech should have the crowd and the national support….Advantage Virginia Tech
Well this still puts us at a dead heat for who is going to win the game and this brings out our little miracle worker that helped us pick two winners during last year’s bowl season. It has been a statistical fact that Bowl underdogs, who give up less than 100 yards rushing per game, win their bowl game outright 75% of the time. Last year it happened twice….Penn State and USC Trojans put cash in our pocket. So this year Kansas is the underdog and only gives up 89.8 yards per game on defense so our money is with the Jayhawks…Rock, Chalk Jayhawk!!!!!
Also, we said it once and we will say it again…never bet against Mangino.
Put your money on Kansas and if you are feeling bold take the moneyline!!!!
Flash Flash and Runny
Please join us on our new website. We have the same hot chicks and great picks. Click here….
Well we had a bit of a love hate going with our picks. We are now winning our picks but losing the big money bets we put down. Since starting 2-7, we have raced back impressively and now stand at 9-10. Only a couple of games left but we are coming back with a fury.
Our Dahm Triplet bets are running undefeated so we are coming back with those hot gals for this blog:
3 Unit Bet = The Dahm Triplets bet-A lot of great things come in threes. The Dahm Triplets are no exception. Indeed, they are Dahm hot!! For these bets, bet 3 times your typical betting unit… one for each one of these lovely ladies. Be sure to send the vig to their parents as thank you for gracing us with them. The world is definately 3 times better since they were delivered from the heavens.
Man we love the sauna!!!
On with the game….
West Virginia versus Oklahoma (-7)
We think this is a game of who has more to prove. West Virginia suffered a catastrophic loss to PITT in their last game and then their coach bailed on them to go to Michigan. Oklahoma was the laughing stock of all bowl teams last year when Boise State pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season. We rode West Virginia this year when we found them relevant and we have learned that they really do not respond well to physical defenses and Pat White and Steve Slaton will bail on games and get hurt when the going gets tough. It took us awhile to warm up to Oklahoma because they were starting a freshmen QB but we are believers that Sam Bradford is a special kid and the real deal. Bradford suffered a concussion early in the Texas Tech loss so the only real loss he was accoutable for was the Colorado upset. Bradford led the nation with a 180.5 quarterback rating. Bradford completed 70.1 percent of his passes for 34 touchdowns on the season. He had a 7-0 TD-to-interception ratio in the Sooners’ three games against ranked teams. Lets take a look at the ATS numbers:
Mountaineers are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
Sooners are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win.
Sooners are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Sooners are 13-6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
We hear that West Virginia has been practicing tough and as if nothing happened but we think their PITT loss will simply be too much to overcome. White and Slaton fold in big games and against physical teams (See South Florida loss this year) and Oklahoma is darn good. This spread has moved around a lot because of Rodriguez leaving and Oklahoma is facing some suspensions to their secondary but the guys stepping in all were starters in 2006. Also, secondary play is not as important as the LBs and guys in the trenches when facing West Virginia. This game will be won at the line of scrimmage and we think Oklahoma will be playing for a lot more and will be the more focused team. West Virginia is simply facing too many issues and has the potential to fold real fast in this game.
Oklahoma wins this game big!!!!
Lets end this blog on a good note with one of our favorite pictures of the year. This never gets old….
Flash Flash and Runny
Happy New Year!!! We hope you are not still hungover and have enough energy to place some winning bets with us. We are coming at you today with winning picks on 5 games. We are really excited because this is the first time we are coming at you with our Super Keyra bet. Keep reading to find out which bowl that is for. Here are our picks:
We have two Heidi Klum bets for you today:
1 Unit Bet = The Heidi Klum bet. You know she is hot but her judgement must be suspect cause she married one of the ugliest human beings outside of Scottie Pippen, Sam Cassell and Charlie Weis (of course we took a dig at Notre Dame in this blog). We love the Heidi Klum but something is off with her judgement so we are only comfortable making her a a one unit bet.
These are the same pictures that gave us our first win this bowl season so we are being superstitious and going back to them:
and the infamous Butt Crack:
Klum Game 1 – Tennessee (-1.5) versus Wisconsin in the Outback Bowl
We love when we see SEC schools squaring off against Big Ten schools and this game should show America the difference between the two conferences just like it did last year. Tennessee is scoring 33.4 points per game, about three points more than the Badgers this season and that is why the line is set where it is set. Now Tennessee’s defense is nothing to talk about but when they face a basic offense like Wisconsin’s, and rumor has it that PJ Hill is still banged up, we have to think Tennessee will be good enough to deal with them, especially after they only gave up 21 points to an LSU team that has a far superior offense to Wisconsin. Lets look at the ATS numbers:
Badgers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Badgers are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Badgers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Badgers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
Volunteers are 5-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Volunteers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Volunteers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Volunteers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
This game is in Tampa so you know the SEC faithful will pack Raymond James stadium. Wisconsin usually gets stuck in these games against an SEC school and has won this matchup the last two seasons. We think Wisconsin is a different team without PJ Hill and we bet he was worth 2-3 points to the oddsmakers. Both QBs have experience but Ainge gets the edge here. We are only assigning this a Klum bet cause the Badgers show up against the SEC but we think this is the year that changes. Tennessee wins and covers!!!
Klum Game #2 – Hawaii versus Georgia (-7.5) in the Allstate Sugar Bowl Classic
We think this game has the betters thinking of Oklahoma versus Boise State from last year. The line opened at Georgia -9.5 and is now at Georgia -7.5, which shows that all of the money is going on Hawaii. Hawaii played one of the softest D-1 schedules ever this season. Yes, they did take care of business when it mattered but they barely scraped by. We also know that Georgia feels slighted from the BCS championship game after LSU jumped them after winning the SEC championship game. Mark Richt, the Georgia coach, has openly criticized the system and this is the one thing that makes us nervous. We hope Richt put this behind him and has helped get his Dawg squad ready to win. Lets check out the ATS numbers:
Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Warriors are 7-18 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
We all know the deal here. Colt Brennan is the man and June Jones has the run and gun going and they play in the same conference as Boise State, Boise State was undefeated last year and beat Oklahoma….Blah Blah Blah. Georgia is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. Georgia has not lost a game since they inserted Freshmen Knowshon Moreno into the starting lineup. They have a six game winning streak going. Georgia amassed 25 sacks over its six-game winning streak to close the season and that is something Hawaii has not seen yet this year. This Georgia defense will really get after Brennan and he has shown a tendancy to get hurt this year. we are only throwing a Klum bet on this because we know what can happen in this wild and whacky bowl season. We do know we are betting Georgia and expect them to win and cover!!!!
So that was two Klum games. We are following that up with two Derek Jeter games.
2 Unit Bet = The Derek Jeter Bet – In honor of one of our favorite athletes, the 2 unit bet will be a tribute to all of the women Derek Jeter has allegedly slept with including, Jessica Biel, Scarlett Johanson, Mariah Carey, Anna Kournikouva, Miss Universes, models, etc…. We have a ton of chicks to choose for this bet in honor of our man Derek Jeter.
Lets show off two hot chicks that Jeter has allegedly banged: First Miss Jessica Alba:
We are sure Jeter fired his guns at her. And now one of his other alleged conquests…Miss Vanessa Minnillo:
Yeah Jeter hit this before she got with Nick Lachay and the backside of course:
Jeter Game 1 – Arkansas versus Missouri (-3) in the ATandT Cotton Bowl Classic
Missouri had a great season if you take out playing Oklahoma. However, Missouri definitely feels slighted because they finished 6th in the BCS standings and are not playing in a BCS game. This will be a game of run versus pass…Missouri is the 7th rated passing team in the nation and Arkansas is the 3rd rates rushing offense in the country. Missouri actually has a rush defense and only gave up 118.8 yards per game on the season. Lets get into the ATS numbers:
Razorbacks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
Tigers are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
Tigers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
Tigers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.
Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Tigers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home.
As you can see, Missouri has the clear edge with its ATS numbers. Throw in the fact that Arkansas’ coach, Houston Nutt, resigned after they beat LSU and defected to Ole Miss and you have to like the consistency that Missouri will have. Missouri is definitely disappointed they could not beat Oklahoma but they have a great QB, dynamic offense and a defense that can stop the run and we can see this game getting out of hand. We are sure McFadden and Jones will have their moments but if Missouri gets ahead, as we expect, Arkansas is in no shape to pass its way to victory. Jump on with our Boy Derek Jeter and play Missouri to win and cover!!!!
Jeter Game 2 – USC (-14) versus Illinois in the Rose Bowl
We had our ups and downs with USC this year and this game seems like it should be an easy one for the Trojans. The spread is the highest of all of the Bowl games and Illinois did not lose any games this year by more than 10 points. They even played Missouri tough in a 7 point loss to open the season. Both teams are riding 4 game winning streaks. The real difference in this game is USC’s defense. The Trojans rank second in the country in total defense, fourth in scoring defense and fourth in rushing defense. USC allowed just 15.9 points per game. Lets look at the ATS numbers before we throw our pick out:
Fighting Illini are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Fighting Illini are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.
Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big Ten.
Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
Trojans are 9-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Trojans are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
Trojans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Trojans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Bettors are likely to jump on Illinois because everybody remembers the following three games against mobile QBs…Texas/USC, Washington/USC this year (27-24) and USC’s loss to Dennis Dixon this year. The big difference is that Illinois is a run first team and averaged 266 yards rushing per game. Juice William’s, The Illini mobile QB, ran for 774 yards and 7 TDs and only passed for 1,498 yards with 13 TDs and 10 INTs. Illinois is a run first team and pass second. We already told you how good USC’s defense is and we think Illinois will be completely neutralized. This is not the typical mobile QB that is just as dynamic passing as he is running. Do not fear the points. If you want us to go into more detail on this game we will be happy to. We just see no need. Beat Down Cometh!!! USC wins and covers easily!!!!
THE BET OF ALL BETS THIS SEASON
We are throwing out our first Keyra bet on the following game.
The Super Bet = The Keyra Shake that Money Maker bet – These will be our super lock bets. The bets we are taking out second mortgages, bank loans, hitting up friends and relatives…you get the picture. Bet as much as you can stomach bets. If you are not familiar with our gal Keyra, check out this action. This has to be one of the best videos ever put on the Internet:
Say this three times…I wish I was a red thong, I wish I was a red thong, I wish I was a red thong:
Or if red is not your color, I wish I was a black thong, I wish I was a black thong, I wish I was a black thong:
Man that makes us feel good. On with “THE GAME” of the bowl season:
Michigan versus Florida (-11) in the Capital One Bowl
We love this game and our write up will not hide our bias in any way. The Wolverines faced two legit spread option teams this year (and we are not counting Illinois for reasons explained above). Appalachian State ran Michigan out of their own house and Oregon really pounded the Wolverines. The Wolverine seniors have never won a bowl game and they never played well for Coach Lloyd Carr so we see no reason why they will play hard for him during this game. Michigan did have four key players injured this year and you never know when the injury bug will bite them again: QB Chad Henne, RB Mike Hart, WR Mario Manningham and OT Jake Long. These guys are all expected to play but will they be able to play the whole game. Florida has the 4th best scoring offense in the country at 43 points per game. Do you know how many times Michigan scored 43 points this year….1 time (against Purdue) and that was the only time they scored 40 this season. Everybody knows how good Tebow is and how dynamic the Gators offense is. We see zero reasons why Michigan can win this game or even have a chance competing. Florida is on a 4 game winning streak and a 4 game winning streak ATS. Check out the ATS numbers:
Wolverines are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games.
Wolverines are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Gators are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
Can you just feel it? Florida is going to pound Michigan. They have a significant edge in talent, on offense, in the coaching department and Michigan can not stop the spread. Lloyd Carr is gonna wish he quit last season after an underdog USC squad beat his assin the Rose Bowl. We love this game and are betting our max on it. Florida crushes Michigan…NO CONTEST!!!
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