12/23 Free NCAA Football Bowl Pick and Hot Chick: East Carolina Vs. Boise State

First things first. our performance is brutal right now. we are 4-1 picking winners and 1-4 picking against the spread and down 8 units. We only lost 4 games ATS all last bowl season so this is very frustrating. We are waiting for our system to turn it around and think we have the opportunity to do so with this game.

We are stepping it up and making this a Shakira bet.

4 Unit Bet = The Shakira Hips Don’t Lie bet- We love us some Shakira and her hip shaking bits. In honor of this Columbian love ma-cheen, we named one of our bets after her. For the Shakira bets, place 4 times your typical unit of bet.

Might as well show the video for the hips don’t lie bet:

Of course we are going to show some Shakira arse in honor of our first Shakira bet.

And on with the game, sorry Shakira. We would love to stare at your ass some more but we are going to make some cash here.

Boise State (-11.5) versus East Carolina in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

This game is more interesting than it initally seems. Both East Carolina and Boise State improved on offense year over year. Both teams are solid in various aspects of the defensive game as well. Both teams have incredible talent in the backfield. Both teams like to run the ball…171 yards per game for East Carolina and 192 yards per game for Boise State. On defense we see our first real difference, Boise State only gives up 115 yards per game rushing and lets opponents convert third down tries 33% of the time. East Carolina gives up 146 yards per game and lets opponents convert third downs at a 40% clip. Is this a 10.5 point advantage? Probably not yet. Lets look at some ATS numbers:

East Carolina
Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in December.

Boise State
Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games.
Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in December.
Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Broncos are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up loss.
Broncos are 23-7-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Broncos are 28-11-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.

Yup….not one negative ATS thing to say about this Boise State team. Throw in the fact that Boise State just played in Hawaii and knows how to travel there and we think this is worth a few extra points as well. We also like the fact that Boise State is led by a senior QB and East Carolina rotates between two guys. East Carolina definitely pissed us off this year by not covering against Marshall in an outright loss as 6.5 point favorites and we remember this because it was the second to last game of the season. Boise State was on a 9 game winning streak before they lost to Hawaii in their last game of the regular season. Boise State is very well coached and will be looking for redemption on their season. We think Boise State will come out fast and take it right to the East Carolina Butt Pirates.

Boise State wins big and covers!!!!

Flash Flash and Runny