12/21 Free NCAA Football Bowl Pick and Hot Chicks: Florida Atalantic Versus Memphis

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On this very short bowl season we only have one game out there so far and that is Utah over Navy. Just a reminder on the ground rules….every pick we post is backed up by our own money. We made money on the regular season, up 13 units and we are putting those units to work on the bowl season. We have 6 different betting values we assign to each bowl game so pay attention.

We are assigning this a Heidi Klum bet.

1 Unit Bet = The Heidi Klum bet. You know she is hot but her judgement must be suspect cause she married one of the ugliest human beings outside of Scottie Pippen, Sam Cassell and Charlie Weis (of course we took a dig at Notre Dame in this blog). We love the Heidi Klum but something is off with her judgement so we are only comfortable making her a a one unit bet.

Seal is one lucky dude!!!!

And of course, a shot from the backside:

And on with the game….

Memphis versus Florida Atlantic (-2.5) in the New Orleans Bowl

In a game like this where the casual fan has never seen either team play this year you need to understand who is favored and why. Both teams started off the season poorly and finished strong. Memphis won 5 of their last 6 games with the lone loss a 56-40 beat down by East Carolina. Out of Memphis’ 7 wins, 5 of the wins were by 3 points or less so they know how to win close games. Florida Atlantic was 7 -5 on the season with losses at Florida, at Kentucky, at Oklahoma State and at home against South Florida. So the only loss to really question is their 33-30 loss to Louisiana-Monroe. Florida Atlantic ended the season with an impressive win against Florida International and a very impressive win against Troy as 15 point underdogs (a bet we lost and remember well).

Lets take a look at the against the spread numbers for both teams:

Florida Atlantic
Owls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on turf.
Owls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Owls are 4-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Owls are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.

Memphis
Tigers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Tigers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
Tigers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
Tigers are 15-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Tigers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Tigers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Tigers are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win.
Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Looks pretty even. We will say that the Florida Atlantic ATS numbers of 4-9 ATS vs. a winning team and 2-10 ATS in their non-conference games are not that meaningful to us because they go out and play the likes of Florida, Kentucky, South Florida, etc…

When you look a little deeper at this game, Memphis’ defense sticks out as a problem. Memphis held only one opponent under 21 points this season and conceded 50-plus points to three C-USA opponents. When you combine that with the fact that Florida Atalantic averaged 36 points per game in the second half, including a 38-point performance against the conference favorites in the final game of the season you have a potential recipe for disaster. Also, Florida Atlantic has a 19-9 edge in the turnover ratio department and averaged almost 3 takeaways a game.

Now we get to the X factor, Florida Atlantic Coach Howard Schnellenberger. Coach is looking to go 5-0 in bowl games. That is right, he has never lost a bowl game and when we see the line under 3 points in their favor we are loving it. Coach coached his team to a 6-1 conference record and took out Troy when nobody was expecting it. We are not betting against this man and team again.

Florida Atlantic wins and covers!!!

Flash Flash and Runny