RPJ Betting Syndicate

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NFL WEEK 16 PICKS: THURSDAY NIGHT DELIGHT

Sweet 16 is upon us!!! We are lovin’ the NFL right now. All these games!!!! Love it. Love it. Love it. Week 16 kicks off with the Steelers in The Lou to face the Rams. Before we get in to our analysis, let’s talk about our record. With our win Monday night, our season record ATS is 59-46-1 (56%). Not too shabby, but we know we are better than that. Here is our take on Thursday’s match-up:

Steelers @ Rams +7.5: We absolutely LOVE this game!!! The Steelers have been a tale of two teams all year-brilliant at home, terrible on the road. They are completely different on the road. Will their fortunes change this week against a Rams team that has been depleted by injuries? We don’t think so. We love the Rams in this game, and there are four HUGE reasons why.

First, the Rams have a very solid and very underrated D. They know how to get at QB’s. They know how to cover and they know how to hit. This does not bode well for the Steelers. With the exception of Willie Parker, there is no threat on the Steelers that can out match the Rams. We think Roethlisberger is overrated. The Rams will hold them down enough to keep it within a TD.

Second, the Rams have Bulger and Jackson back. The Rams have been terrible on offense all year, but with these two guys back, they are a different team. Plus, Bulger is from Western PA so there is no doubt that he wants to decimate the Steelers. The Rams will be able to score enough on the Steelers to keep this close. Pay close attention to the  Polamalu-Holt match-up.

Third, as mentioned above, the Steelers are terrible on the road (1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games). The Rams will be ready for them. 7.5 points is A LOT of points to give a home team. Especially a home team with a good D.

Finally, our favorite reason why we LOVE the Rams to cover in this game-VEGAS KNOWS. We’ve said it hundreds of times in this blog and we think about EVERY time we look at spreads. Vegas knows and its sole goal is to take your money. It is pretty simple. The spreads are designed to get you to take the bait. The obvious key is to not take it by spotting the traps. Sometimes the traps are tought to see. Other times, like now, it is pretty easy. The trap in this game is that the line opened the week at -9.5. Since then, approximately 87% of the public’s money is on the Steelers. The trap is that this line has DROPPED!! Vegas wants people to keep pressing the Steelers. DON’T DO IT!! Avoid the trap and roll with us on the Rams.

Take the Rams +7.5 

December 19, 2007 - Posted by | Free NFL Picks, NFL, NFL Picks, Pittsburgh Steelers, Rams, St. Louis, Steelers

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