We have four bets for this beautiful day and we are going to keep riding our new found success. Damn glad it showed up finally.
We have two bets that fall under the Heidi Klum category:
1 Unit Bet = The Heidi Klum bet. You know she is hot but her judgement must be suspect cause she married one of the ugliest human beings outside of Scottie Pippen, Sam Cassell and Charlie Weis (of course we took a dig at Notre Dame in this blog). We love the Heidi Klum but something is off with her judgement so we are only comfortable making her a one unit bet.
Man we hate Seal right about now….
1) Air Force versus Cal (-3.5) – Well you all know our feelings on Jeff Tedford and his turd sandwich job of coaching the Golden Shower Bears this year. You also know we love us some Air Force betting action and super back Chad Hall. Well we are going to mix it up a bit for this game because we think the smart bet is on the OVER. Right now the Over is sitting at 55.5 points. Here are the over/under numbers.
Over is 5-1 in Falcons last 6 games in December.
Over is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 games following a straight up win.
Over is 5-2 in Falcons last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Falcons last 7 games on grass.
Over is 5-2 in Falcons last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Falcons last 7 games overall.
Over is 13-6 in Falcons last 19 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Golden Bears last 4 Bowl games.
Over is 5-1-1 in Golden Bears last 7 non-conference games.
Over is 6-2 in Golden Bears last 8 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 9-3 in Golden Bears last 12 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-2-1 in Golden Bears last 8 vs. Mountain West
We initially wanted to bet Air Force and the over because we think that is what the result is going to be but we are keeping ourselves aware of the Tedford turd sandwich factor and think that the smart bet is just taking the over. Tedford screwed us more times than the Priests mounting young boys at Notre Dame. CAL has more talent and has the ability to win this game 50-21 and they also have the ability to lose 49-7 so we think the over is the way to go. Cal will not be able to stop Air Force and we are thinking CAL will score enough points after they have had the chance to get a little more healthy. CAL held only one BCS-conference opponent under 20 points this season. Cal has been a tale of two seasons…before and after Longshore hurt his ankle. Prior to his injury CAL was putting up 39.4 points per game and after his injury they averaged 20.3 points per game. Tedford has helped the Bears win three of their last four bowl games and the last two bowl games they put up 45 and 35 points respectively. Air Force averages 29.4 points per game and first year coach, Troy Calhoun, helped turn this team around really fast. So we think the bowl Tedford team shows up after they have had a chance to rest and these two teams will throw up some serious points on each other. Bet the Over 55.5 and hopefully we hit it in the first half and can relax to watch what should be an exciting game!!!
2) Kentucky (-9.5) versus Florida State in The Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl, AKA the FSU stupid retarded player bowl Buyer beware!!!! Do not take this line over 9.5 points. We know you wanted it on Kentucky at -1 when it first opened but this still should not matter. Kentucky went through a roller coaster season and simply fell victim to hype and SEC Conference football losing 4 of their last 5 games. Kentucky’s weak point was definitely their defense and they gave up 29.8 points per game. We only assigned this game a 1 unit Heidi Klum bet because we know FSU lost tons of players to suspension but we so not know if this will be a rallying point or a problem. We know Kentucky has a bad defense and we know FSU has a bad offense. We know FSU is good stopping the run so that means the game rests pretty much in the hands of Andre Woodson. Lets look at the ATS numbers:
Seminoles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Seminoles are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
These teams did not have too many relevant ATS numbers. We think this comes down to Kentucky having played the superior schedule this season and battling in the SEC. Kentucky is also led by the better QB who is a weathered senior and we think he will play a large part in keeping his team focused and rolling on offense. This year’s game sold out within minutes of tickets going on sale and Kentucky will have at least 27,000 fans in attendance. Kentucky also played in this bowl last year and won so they know exactly what to expect out of the travel schedule. Florida State’s suspensions are an embarassment to the program and we think they will come out and fold once they witness the dynamic Kentucky offense. Kentucky wins big and covers (-9.5) in this one!!!!
3) Auburn versus Clemson (-2.5) in the Chick-fil-A Bowl
We are assigning this bet a Dahm Triplet bet:
3 Unit Bet = The Dahm Triplets bet-A lot of great things come in threes. The Dahm Triplets are no exception. Indeed, they are Dahm hot!! For these bets, bet 3 times your typical betting unit… one for each one of these lovely ladies. Be sure to send the vig to their parents as thank you for gracing us with them. The world is definitely 3 times better since they were delivered from the heavens.
Yes we are going to sport some straight nudity again…
We are changing things up again for this game. We think the play is for the UNDER. Right now the UNDER is at 46.5. Of 11 games this year, Auburn hit the under 7 times and Clemson hit it 5 times. Both teams have solid defenses and not so hot offenses. There are some really powerful Over/Under numbers for this game and that is the basis for our reasoning. Check it out:
Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 Bowl games.
Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 Monday games.
Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. ACC.
Under is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games in December.
Under is 15-5 in Tigers last 20 games as an underdog.
Under is 6-2 in Tigers last 8 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Tigers last 7 games overall.
Under is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Under is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 vs. SEC.
Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Tigers last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Tigers last 7 Bowl games.
Under is 11-5 in Tigers last 16 non-conference games.
I think you can see that these numbers scream for the under. Remember the following games:
Auburn 17 Alabama 10
Auburn 17 Ole Miss 3
Auburn 9 Arkansas 7
Auburn 20 Florida 17
Auburn has no problem slowing it down, playing ball control offense and keeping the score low. They seem to prefer it in close, big games.
Clemson 23 South Carolina 21
Clemson 17 Boston College 20
Clemson 3 Georgia Tech 13
Clemson 24 FSU 18
Clemson knows how to keep it on the ground and slow it down as well. We think this game has 17-14 or 10-7 written all over it and that is what we are banking on. Take the UNDER 46.5 in the Clemson/Auburn game!!!
4) South Florida (-6) versus Oregon in the Brut Sun Bowl. We are throwing out our gal pal Eva Mendes for this bet:
5 Unit Bet = The Eva Mendes Bet – We love us some Eva and think she is a Goddess. Since we renamed the Brinks truck bet the Eva Mendes we went 3-1 with it. It has lost once already in bowl season but that was in week 1 and this is week 2. Eva is ready to represent for us again!!!
An oldie but a goodie:
Here is the basic explanation for this game….South Florida versus a sibling of Ryan Leaf….Enough said!!! Bet South Florida at 5 times your normal bet and take this home. The Leaf family was born to lose and Ryan’s brother Brady Leaf has never won a college game. He also was injured and Oregon was forced to start Justin Roper and Cody Kempt who led them to loses as well. Oregon has not won a game since Dennis Dixon got hurt and we have to feel for them because they were one of the top teams in the country. However, when you take Dixon out of the equation, this is the Oregon team that was shut out by UCLA. Lets check out the ATS numbers so you can feel like we are doing real analysis:
Ducks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in December.
Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf.
Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.
Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bulls are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite.
Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Bulls are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
The South Florida defense ranks 22nd in the nation in yards against per game with just 326.8. USF also ranks third in the nation in interceptions with 22. Only three opponents have managed to score more than 23 points against the Bulls all year. South Florida is going to prey on Oregon’s offense worse than UCLA did and that is where our confidence comes in in making this an Eva Mendes bet. Oregon’s only bright spot is RB Jonathan Stewart but he is going to have to face a South Florida defense that is 19th in the nation and only giving up 112 yards per game. We know how this game plays out…South Florida stops the run and a Leaf family member makes stupid passing mistakes the whole game. South Florida Rolls big in this game, wins and covers (-6) with ease!!!
Flash Flash and Runny
2008 is almost upon us, but we still have a lot of work to do in 2007. Congrats to the Patriots on their perfect season, but F them for not covering for us-haha! The Pats loss ATS dropped our season record to 61-54-1. We know that sucks and we apologize. No time is better to get off the schneid than right now. Here is what we like on Sunday (sorry for the lack of explanations):
Lions +3.5 @ Packers: Packers are set for the playoffs. The Lions ar pobably playing for Mike Martz’s jo. Take the points. Lions +3.5.
Vikings -3 @ Broncos: Broncos are terrible and the Vikings are playing for the palyoffs. Take the Vikings -3.
49ers +11.5 @ Browns: Browns are playing for the playoffs and the 49ers are terrible. Exact same situation as the Vik-Broncos, but this is too many points. We like what we’ve seen from the 49ers these past few weeks. Take the points. 49ers +11.5.
Saints +1 @ Bears: Saints need this win to make the playoffs. The Bears are starting Kyle Orton. ‘Nuff said. We love the points. Saints +1.
Jags +7 @ Texans: Jags are set for the playoffs so they won’t be playing their starters. That said, we stll think their D and their 2nd string is still better than the Texans. Jags +7.
Cowboys +9 @ Skins: No starters for the Boys this week and if the Skins win, they are in the playoffs. However, Brad Johnson is a real decent back-up. He can still beat the Skins. This is too many points. Take the Boys +9.
Bengals -2.5 @ Fins: Fins are just bad. Take the Bungles -2.5.
Runny & Flash
We are cranking out bets left and right to prove that our system will rebound strongly for you our readers and of course for our own bank accounts. It has been a tough go but we are going to make up some serious ground with our next round of picks. Stay tuned for a fun weekend and sign up to our RSS feeds so you can receive our picks in real time. On the season we are 2-7 and down 15 units. We did win our last bet thanks to Oregon State and their Beavers.
We are making this game our first Dahm Triplet game of the season in honor of these lovely ladies….
3 Unit Bet = The Dahm Triplets bet-A lot of great things come in threes. The Dahm Triplets are no exception. Indeed, they are Dahm hot!! For these bets, bet 3 times your typical betting unit… one for each one of these lovely ladies. Be sure to send the vig to their parents as thank you for gracing us with them. The world is definately 3 times better since they were delivered from the heavens.
This is the first time we have shown these lovelies so lets check em out:
I think we need some good old fashioned nudity:
And we would not be RPJ Syndicate if we skipped the obligatory ass shot:
Wake Forest (-2) versus UCONN in the Meineke Car Care Bowl
This is an interesting game to check out because we know that Wake always plays solid football under Jim Grobe and so far Grobe has decided to remain at Wake. Most people did not expect anything from UCONN to start this season so lets take a look at how they arrived at their 9-3 record and almost played in a BCS bowl game. This 9-3 record is interesting…UCONN lost at UVA on 10/13/2007 by one point, lost at Cincy on 11/10/2007 27-3 and lost at West Virginia 66-21 in their last game of the season. The beat two bowl teams… a home win against South Florida by a 22-15 margin on 10/27/2007 and a 38-19 at home against Rutgers the following week. So against legitimate competition they went 2-3 and the only wins came at home. Their other competition included: Duke, Maine, Temple, Pitt, Akron, Louisville and Syracuse. Lets take a look at the ATS numbers and then we will get into it…Both teams have pretty good ATS numbers:
Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Huskies are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games on grass.
Huskies are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Huskies are 27-10-1 ATS in their last 38 non-conference games.
Huskies are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Huskies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Demon Deacons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Demon Deacons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Demon Deacons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Demon Deacons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Demon Deacons are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Demon Deacons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Demon Deacons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Demon Deacons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
Demon Deacons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Demon Deacons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Here is how we see it. Neither team has a distinct edge with their ATS stats so what will give. This game is actually 80 miles from Wake Forest and Grobe already says he expects 30,000 fans to show up. We know UCONN will not travel because it is a basketball school and people do not care in New England right now with the Pats on their run. We already showed you that UCONN did not travel well against good teams. Throw in the fact that Wake was 5-1 at home with their sole loss in week 2 against Nebraska 20-17 when Nebraska was decent and you start to like Wake’s chances. We think Cincy showed the blueprint for how to beat UCONN. Stack against the run and make them pass. Cincy held UCONN to 31 yards rushing and that held them to 3 points. UCONN has to run or they are ineffective because their QB, Lorenzen, is not that accurate. Well Wake has the 7th best rush defense in the country so you now can definitely see where this is going. Wake is essentially playing a home game, with a top rated run defense against a UCONN team that hates playing on the road and has to run to balance out their offense. Easy money here…well no pick has been easy money this year but this is the type of game where you want to pick UCONN but you just know Wake will show up and play a great game Pick Wake to win and cover!!!
Flash Flash and Runny
Happy Holidays! Week 16 was not kind to us at all!!! After a win last Saturday, we dropped a fat 1-6 Sunday to destroy our season record. That one hurt us. Luckily we see a lot of games in Week 17 that we want to press. Nothing better than Saturday’s game with the Pats looking for perfection in the Meadowlands to face the Giants. Here is our take:
Pats -13.5 @ Giants: Unless you have been living on Pluto since Labor Day, everyone knows that the Pats are one game away from perfection. They’ve already won more games than any other team in a season and with another win, they can join the ’72 Fins as the only teams that have finished the regular season undefeated. There are also some monumental, individual records they can get, too. Will they do it? Most people think so. The key for us is will they cover? We think they will.
The key for this game is post season positioning. Both teams are in the playoffs. However, the Gints are extremely banged-up and need people healthy if they want to make a run in the tournament. Obviously, the Pats are at risk to injury, too. However, they are in a different situation.
The Pats are not as banged-up and they REALLY want this win. Plus, if the past weeks of the NFL season provide any history lesson, they show that the Pats starters play pretty much the entire game. Even in huge blowouts. We don’t think this is smart, but we love the predictability. Coughlin, on the other hand, is much more conservative. There is now way he will risk further injuries. If their studs play, it won’t be for more than a quarter. And rightfully so.
The Pats starters vs. the Gints back-ups equals one HUGE beatdown. The Pats will look for blood early, and they will get it. This will be a blowout. The Pats will remain perfect.
Take the Pats -13.5.
As we stated in our Boston College vs. Michigan State update, we have sucked it almost as bad as Notre Dame’s offense this year picking ATS bowl winners. We got one right so we are not as bad as Notre Dame, which had the worst offense in D-1 football this year.
We are laying a Derek Jeter bet on our next game.
2 Unit Bet = The Derek Jeter Bet – In honor of one of our favorite athletes, the 2 unit bet will be a tribute to all of the women Derek Jeter has allegedly slept with including, Jessica Biel, Scarlett Johanson, Mariah Carey, Anna Kournikouva, Miss Universes, models, etc…. We have a ton of chicks to choose for this bet in honor of our man Derek Jeter.
We had to go with Jessica Alba in this one because we know Keter will never touch her pregnant engaged ass again. We will be happy to show off her pre-pregnant engaged ass though….
And a close up of her tush courtesy of youtube….
Maryland versus Oregon State (-4.5) in the Emerald Bowl
This is a bizarre matchup. The Terps have not faced a Pac-10 opponent since 1982 so these two teams are a mystery to each other. Maryland was 9-4 last year and even had a 5 game stretch where they were 5-0 and the combined margin of victory was 13 points (think Virginia this year). This year the Terps were 6-6 but somehow managed to beat two top ten teams…Rutgers on September 29 and Boston College on November 10. They also blasted North Carolina State by shutting them out to become bowl eligible in the last game of their season. So we just told you the good…what is the bad? They lost to Florida State before the NC State beat down but that was right after the BC upset. They also lost at North Carolina. All in all the Terps were pretty competitive most of the season and lost to Wake Forest, UVA, UNC, Florida State all by 8 points or less.
We had very high hopes for Oregon State going into this season and still believe they have on eof the best offensive lines in college football. After opening with a nice win over Utah, they got blasted by Cincinatti and then lost to Arizona State, UCLA and USC….all bowl teams. Oregon State suffered through injury after injury this year and still managed to win 6 of their last 7 (USC was the only loss).
Lets look at the ATS numbers:
Terrapins are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Terrapins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
Terrapins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Terrapins are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Terrapins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Terrapins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Terrapins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Beavers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Beavers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Beavers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Beavers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
Beavers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
Beavers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
Maryland and Oregon State have each won their last three bowl games under their current head coaches. This is a tricky game to bet because we know Oregon State is ending on a hot streak and Maryland has the potential so the real question is which Maryland team shows up. Maryland was one of only four teams to defeat two top-10 opponents this season. Maryland is one of only four teams in the country with two running backs to each compile at least 750 rushing yards this season. Keon Lattimore totaled 789 with 13 touchdowns and Lance Ball had 763 with 12 TDs to help the Terps rank third in the ACC with 147.3 rushing yards per game. Lattimore and Ball, however, will be facing one of the nation’s toughest run defenses. The Beavers allow 74.9 rushing yards per game to rank second in the Football Bowl Subdivision. They give up only 313.0 total yards per game, 12th-fewest in the FBS. We think this will be a hard nosed smash em out type of game. Oregon State’s best RB, Yvenson Bernard, will be back for the Beavers and both of these teams will pound the run and stay with the run all game. We think Oregon State has the better line, the better edge in skill players and the edge on defense. When it is all said and done we think Oregon State comes out on top. When you have the chance to grab some easy Beaver…you always do it!!! Oregon State wins and covers!!!
Flash Flash and Runny
Well we are taking full responsibility for helping you piss away the 13 units we helped you win during the regular season but we remain confident that our system works and the ship will right itself ASAP. We are 1-6 and down 13 units so far this bowl season. Picking winners has not been the issue but picking the spread winner has. We helped you win 13 units during the regular season and we plan on hitting the remainder of these bowl games hard.
We are coming back strong with our next bet….The Skakira Hips Don’t Lie Bet….
4 Unit Bet = The Shakira Hips Don’t Lie bet- We love us some Shakira and her hip shaking bits. In honor of this Columbian love ma-cheen, we named one of our bets after her. For the Shakira bets, place 4 times your typical unit of bet. This girl knows how to move…..This video is long but Shakira fans will find it worth it.
And of course a picture of the back side…
Michigan State versus Boston College (-5) in the Champs Sports Bowl
This is becoming one of the hotter upset picks during this bowl season because all good things come to an end….Boston College is riding a 7 game bowl winning streak, which is the best in the nation right now. Also, Michigan State is pretty happy to be in this bowl game because they were sitting at 5-5 and won their last two games and even came from behind against Penn State in the 4th quarter to win one of those two end of season games. BC was riding an 8 game winning streak with some serious heroics from their starting QB Matt Ryan. Then BC slumped to a 2-3 finish and Ryan threw more picks than TDs during that stretch. Members of the BC team have been disappointed in the end to their season and this usually means trouble. This group of senior for BC is the winningest in BC history and they have played in the Continental Tire Bowl, the MPC Computers Bowl and the Meineke Bowl and now get the prize of the Citrus Bowl after Clemson and Virginia were taken in more high profile bowls even though they finished behind BC. This has the potential to spell trouble because we are not convinced BC even wants to play in this bowl and might now show up against a physical Michigan State team.
Lets take a look at the ATS numbers before we get into it….
Spartans are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 non-conference games.
Spartans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
Spartans are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games on grass.
Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games.
Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in December.
Eagles are 15-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Eagles are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games following a straight up loss.
We already know BC is going to have good ATS numbers for this game because they have won late in the season and ride their 7 game bowl winning streak. Both programs showed improvement this year on a year over year basis with new coaches. Michigan State is one of the leading running teams in the country, averaging 200 yards per game. Boston College is the best team in the country against the run and only gave up 68 yards per game. Looking a little deeper on the seasons we see that Michigan State gave up an average of 33 points a game in Big Ten play and the Big Ten was certainly not known for its offensive prowess this season. So if the BC run defense neutralizes the Michigan State running game we are left with the BC offense versus the Michigan St. defense and that is where we like BC to shine. They have a Senior QB at the helm and he will want to go out on a winning note. We think Matt Ryan needs to play one heck of a game to restore his status as an elite QB because he is going to get drafted and play on Sundays for somebody next year. He needs to play well and we think he is the man to get the job done here. Led by a resurgent Matt Ryan, BC plays a great game here.
We just saw the following article and this has to play into Boston College’s favor as well…..Saint-Dic, Adams among 5 players benched for Champ Sports Bowl
We like BC to win and cover!!!
Flash Flash and Runny
Our picks are so bad we could not give them away for free. We only have one right game and it was a one unit bet and we pissed away all of our 13 units already and we are not even into the meat of bowl season. Very very ugly. So we know you do not give a damn about our picks so we might as well show you hot chicks. Here is a link to Arizona State cheerleaders flashing the shocker
They are only amateur shockers cause they are only showing two in the pink and one in the stink and real men go two in the pink and two in the stink.
We also want to give props to a creative genius. Check out this Poon of the Pac-10 link.
And we will not leave out the Longhorn faithful….check out this link to Texas cheerleaders.
We know you do not care about the game but we are taking Arizona State (+2). This means Texas wins by 40. Have fun with our prediction cause it probably means diddly poo!!!
Flash Flash and Runny
First things first and unfortunately they are worse than Charlie Weis’ stomach stapling surgey outcome. We are 1-5 and down 12 units after one week of bowl betting. yes we had our initial panic mode and were wondering what the F is going on but after our 19-4 Bowl record last year we buckled down and remembered that we have a winning system that works in the long run and this was simply a blip on the record. We are confident we will rebound strongly before this Bowl season is over.
For tonight’s game we are back to baby steps and assigning this a Heidi Klum bet…
1 Unit Bet = The Heidi Klum bet. You know she is hot but her judgement must be suspect cause she married one of the ugliest human beings outside of Scottie Pippen, Sam Cassell and Charlie Weis (of course we took a dig at Notre Dame in this blog). We love the Heidi Klum but something is off with her judgement so we are only comfortable making her a a one unit bet.
Purdue (-8) vs. Central Michigan in the Motor City Bowl
We hate to pick on our boy LeFevour but this game has already played out once this season and Purdue won 45-22. You can look at Central Michigan’s schedule and really understand their 8-5 record.
vs. Kansas – Lost 52-7
vs. Purdue – Lost 45-22
vs. Clemson – Lost 70-14
vs. North Dakota State – Lost 44-14 – Yes they also lost to a 1-AA school
So they were 0-4 against BCS schools and a 1-AA school, that means they were 8-1 against members of the MAC-key attackey with a throw in game against the powerful Army squad. Central Michigan also plays zero defense and gave up 36 points a game. Purdue has a legit QB in Curtis Painter who carved up Central Michigan with a 29-39, 360 yard, 3 TD performance in their first match up. Lets check out the ATS numbers:
Chippewas are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 non-conference games.
Chippewas are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. Big Ten.
Chippewas are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Nothing good to speak of
This line opened at -9.5 in favor of Purdue and has been dropping. We think this is wrong. Central Michigan is the hot name right now because they have LeFevour and did not stumble down the stretch. Purdue, after roaring out to a 5-0 start and a top 25 ranking, skidded down the stretch losing 5 of 7 games once they got into the meat of their Big-10 schedule. Last year Central Michigan won this bowl by beating up on a similar lower tiered opponent in Middle Tenn State and this year they face a legit BCS conference school.
We already showed you what happens to Central Michigan when they face BCS schools…they get smacked around. So as much as it pains us to bet against the Fever for LeFevour, it must be done in this game. Purdue wins and covers big again!!!!
Flash Flash and Runny
First things first. our performance is brutal right now. we are 4-1 picking winners and 1-4 picking against the spread and down 8 units. We only lost 4 games ATS all last bowl season so this is very frustrating. We are waiting for our system to turn it around and think we have the opportunity to do so with this game.
We are stepping it up and making this a Shakira bet.
4 Unit Bet = The Shakira Hips Don’t Lie bet- We love us some Shakira and her hip shaking bits. In honor of this Columbian love ma-cheen, we named one of our bets after her. For the Shakira bets, place 4 times your typical unit of bet.
Might as well show the video for the hips don’t lie bet:
Of course we are going to show some Shakira arse in honor of our first Shakira bet.
And on with the game, sorry Shakira. We would love to stare at your ass some more but we are going to make some cash here.
Boise State (-11.5) versus East Carolina in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
This game is more interesting than it initally seems. Both East Carolina and Boise State improved on offense year over year. Both teams are solid in various aspects of the defensive game as well. Both teams have incredible talent in the backfield. Both teams like to run the ball…171 yards per game for East Carolina and 192 yards per game for Boise State. On defense we see our first real difference, Boise State only gives up 115 yards per game rushing and lets opponents convert third down tries 33% of the time. East Carolina gives up 146 yards per game and lets opponents convert third downs at a 40% clip. Is this a 10.5 point advantage? Probably not yet. Lets look at some ATS numbers:
Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games.
Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in December.
Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Broncos are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up loss.
Broncos are 23-7-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Broncos are 28-11-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Yup….not one negative ATS thing to say about this Boise State team. Throw in the fact that Boise State just played in Hawaii and knows how to travel there and we think this is worth a few extra points as well. We also like the fact that Boise State is led by a senior QB and East Carolina rotates between two guys. East Carolina definitely pissed us off this year by not covering against Marshall in an outright loss as 6.5 point favorites and we remember this because it was the second to last game of the season. Boise State was on a 9 game winning streak before they lost to Hawaii in their last game of the regular season. Boise State is very well coached and will be looking for redemption on their season. We think Boise State will come out fast and take it right to the East Carolina Butt Pirates.
Boise State wins big and covers!!!!
Flash Flash and Runny
A good start to the weekend for us with the Panthers pulling through for us against the Cowboys. With Saturday’s win, our season ATS record stands at 60-47-1. Here is what we like on Sunday:
Packers @ Bears +8.5: The Bears gave the Pack a surprising beatdown in their match-up earlier this year. The Pack have been dominant since then. Their only blemish was a debacle in Dallas. The Pack won’t make those mistakes again. However, the Bears are hungry to salvage something from this season. Kyle Orton gets the start again and the Bears D knows that the game is in their hands. They love playing Favre. Especially at home. We think they will be amped for this game. The Pack will win, but the Bears D will keep them in it. Plus, the nasty weather in the Windy City will help the Bears. Take the Bears +8.5.
Texans +7 @ Colts: The Texans have been up and down all year. The Colts are CRUSHED by injuries. They squeaked by the Raiders last week in Oakland. We think their injuries on D will produce the same result this week at home against the Texans. The Texans can score some points. They will score some more this week. Ignore the fact that the home team in this match-up is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings. Take the Texans +7.
Dolphins @ Patriots -22: Before last week, everyone was looking to this game for a Cinderella story and hoping that a winless Fins team could end the Pats run to perfection. The Ravens made sure that the Fins would not be winless coming into this game last week. The Patriots are going to make sure their run to perfection will stay in play this week. Not only will they win, they will win big. Don’t follow the public in this one. The Pats beat them by 21 in their match-up earlier this season in Miami. They will do better than that on Sunday. Take the Pats -22.
Redskins @ Vikings -6.5: The Vikings managed to win last Monday night against the Bears despite a ton of turnovers. They will remedy the turnovers this week. The Skins will be without Rocky McIntosh. This is huge. Look for Adrian Peterson to have a big game. Take the Vikings -6.5.
Falcons @ Cardinals -10: The Falcons are getting players back from injuries while the Cards are pretty banged-up. There were signs of a little turmoil in the Cards loss last week as Kurt Warner blew up on the sidelines at one of his offensive coaches. That said, the Falcons are a joke. Take the Cards -10.
Jets @ Titans -8.5: With this line and how these teams have played the past few weeks, we would LOVE to take the Jets here. However, the reality is that the Jets are just decimated by injuries. Kellen Clemens was injured last week and is not expected to play. Laveranues Coles is out. That is just too much for this Titans team at home. Take the Titans -8.5.
Browns -3 @ Bengals: The Bengals have been infuriating to watch this year. Are hearts go out to any Bengals fan. This season must be torture. They are at home this week against their in-state rival. Their last meeting was a huge shoot out. This week will not be the same. The key to this game will be the D’s. It will be a close game. We just think the Browns have more weapons on offense than the Bengals do. Plus, the Bengals D is much worse. Take the Browns -3.
Good luck with your picks.
Flash & Runny
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