RPJ Betting Syndicate

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NCAA Football Week 8 Picks: 9 Winning Picks and a Trip To See TD Jesus

We were 4-2 last week but missed our Brinks Truck bet so the Brinks Truck is in the shop this weekend getting tuned up. What we do have is 9 great picks for you this weekend. Because we are always up front and honest…we are 24-18 on the season, 3-3 for Brinks Truck bets and we are up 6 units. The 6 units is a joke and we plan on turning that around ASAP.

For our nine picks this week, we are going to break them down into 4 betting categories. First up is the ” Clean Sweep”. The clean sweep means a team meets our statistical betting criteria. The public data we share with you for the clean sweep is the following:

Offensive rushing yards per game
Offensive 3rd down efficiency
Defensive rushing yards given up per game
Defensive 3rd down efficiency
Turnover ratio

When a team meets these 5 figures they win more times than not because they control the clock, can move the ball, stop opponents from controlling the clock, stop opponents from moving up and down the field and do not turn the ball over.

The Clean Sweep Games of the Week:

1) Cincy @ Pitt (plus 9.5) – Cincy is going to be very pissed off following their loss to Louisville and PITT just can not get anything going. Even Navy passed all over them last week. Yes Navy passed the ball successfully on PITT. In what could be a turn of events that actually helps PITT, their coach, Dave Wannstedt, tore his achilles tendon and will probable coach the game from the press box. We saw what good old Dave was able to do against Navy and that was coach his team out of a win. Being in the press box and away from the players and flow of the game might help PITT. However, please be serious here, Cincinnati is ninth in the country in scoring average at 40.6 points per game, while Pitt has given up an average of 42.0 points in its last three contests. This game will be ugly. Ride Cincy and their 5 and 1 record against the spread. Easy cash in this one.

2) Miss St. @ West Virginia (minus 24) – Plain and simple stats for this one. Miss. St. can not stop the run and turns the ball over. West Virginia should have no problem taking control of this game. West Virginia is coming off a bye and Pat White should have had plenty of time to get healthy. Last year and on the road, West Virginia won 42-14. We expect this game to be even more ugly. Mountaineers mount the boys from Mississipp and make em squeal like pigs.

3) Kansas @ Colorado (plus 3.5) – Kansas is becoming one of our favorite teams and is undefeated against the spread at 5 and 0. Last year Kansas won 20-15 and this year’s team is a lot better. Colorado just lost 47-20 to the same Kansas State team Kansas beat. This spread should really be over 10. Jayhawks splatter their poo all over the Buffs.

4) Texas @ Baylor (plus 25) – We saw what Kansas could do against Baylor, a 58-10 win and Texas should whoop them even worse. Baylor might be competitive against the cellar dwellers like Notre Dame but they will be hooked by the Horns. Texas in a blowout.

5) Oregon @ Washington (plus 11.5) – Oregon is really hot. We see this as a parallel to the USC team that lost to CAL in 3-OT a few years back. After that loss the Trojans went on a tear, ultimately destroying Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Well this Oregon team, after suffering a disappointing loss to Cal is on fire after destroying Wash. St. 53-7 last week. Oregon is probably the most explosive team in the Pac-10 and will continue to prove it this week. Ducks blow out Washington by more than 20.

6) Oklahoma @ Iowa St. (plus 29.5) – Iowa St. is the Sooners’ red headed step child. All time they are 66-5-2 in the series. What a freakin joke. So the question is not will Oklahoma win but by how much. The Cyclones lost to Texas 56-3 last week and we expect a similar score. Easy win for the Sooners.

The “Wash” Game of the week

Sometimes we look at a game and do not see one clear winner that stands out meaning the teams are essentially even. We have one such game this weekend.

7) Tennessee @ Alabama (pick em) – Tennessee rushes for 19 more yards a game and the teams are equal in offensive 3rd down conversions. On defense, Alabama is a little better against the run and the teams are even in third down conversion percentage. Turnover ratio favors Alabama 6 to 1 and we think this will be the difference. This game dropped to pick em and we love not having to worry about points, picking the home team and the team that turns the ball over less. Roll Tide Roll. Alabama wins this game.

The SEC Road Cover of the Week

8) Auburn @ LSU (minus 10.5) – The SEC has had some great games the last few weeks and the number one lesson to learn is to not bet on the favorite in the higher spread games. Auburn’s defense proved they can play with the Florida offense and will have no problem with the LSU offense. We do not think Auburn wins but we know they will keep it closer than 10.5 points. Against ranked teams Auburn keeps it close; 3 points with South Florida, 3 points with Florida, 2 points with Arkansas. Take Auburn and the points and watch as they strike fear into another SEC team.

The Fever Game

9) Central Michigan @ Clemson (minus 16.5) – Dancin, Dancin, YEAH!!!! We got the fever for LaFevour once again. Central Michigan has been a cover machine the last three weeks and they covered easily. Our boy Dan LaFevour has the Chippewas playing aggressive football and we think they can keep it close with Clemson and certainly closer than the 16.5 points they are getting. Look at these numbers, this game is too easy: Chippewas are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in October. Chippewas are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Chippewas are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Chippewas are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win. Chippewas are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. And then we get to look at Clemson: Tigers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on grass. Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Tigers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. Tigers are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.

If these numbers do not convince you to get the Fever for LaFevour than you are in the wrong business. Stop betting, send us your money and in return we will send you a jar of tiddly winks.

On a side note, we both go to the USC/Notre Dame game in South Bend every two years and this weekend will be no different. We normally would put out a prediction on this game but Runny wants to bet USC cause he hates ND and Flash wants to bet ND cause USC has been dog vomint for three weeks in a row. We both think USC wins easily and the Trojans defenders might actually physically kill a Notre Dame player because their offense is so terrible. Notre Dame would be better off playing 11 of those little leprechauns from the Lucky Charms commercial cause USC is going to physically dominate them. Also, if you see two drunk USC clowns in the Notre Dame alumni tent feel free to say hello. We will be the ones double fisting bloodies and beers and heckling the demented leprechaun lovers. How in the hell can BC be favored by 13.5 points in South Bend and the Trojans opened at 20.5 points. At least they dropped down to 18 and continue to go down but give me a freakin break. If Vegas were legit at setting lines this game would have an 8-10 point spread.

*****10/19/2007***** We needed to post this story about USC…Trojans endure harrowing flight

This is big news. There is one other game we can remember this year where this happened and it was when Southern Miss travelled to Boise St and got blown out 38-16 and did not cover the 10.5 point spread. Please remember that these guys are kids and they just were on a plane where they thought they were going to die. It is not surprising that I have seen some “experts” actually pick ND for an outright win now after this news was announced. We still think USC wins but Flash thinks this is even more reason why ND will cover. Runny absolutely refuses to give ND any credit and still is on the USC to cover bandwagon. We are here to share info and we feel like this is important betting information that needs to spread.

We hope you enjoy the picks. We have been winners for 6 of the 7 weeks of the NCAA season and we love our picks this week. If you want any picks from us or reasons why we did not bet a game let us know. Simply post a comment and we will get back to you within a couple of hours. Our money is always where our mouth is and that means we share the fruits of our labor with you,our readers.

Flash Flash and Runny

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October 18, 2007 - Posted by | Alabama Tide, Auburn Tigers, Baylor Bears, BCS, Bearcats, Bulldogs, Central Michigan, Chippewas, Clemson, Colorado Buffaloes, Crimson Tide, cyclones, Fighting Irish, Iowa State, Irish, Kansas Jayhawks, Les Miles, LSU, LSU Tigers, Mississippi State, Mountaineers, NCAA, ncaa football, NCAA Picks, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon Ducks, Pittsburgh Panthers, Sooners, Tennessee, Texas Longhorns, Tigers, USC, USC Trojans, Volunteers, Washington Huskies, West Virginia

18 Comments »

  1. Hey love the picks this year, although I dont use all of them the ones I do use are great and I won a lot of money this season.

    My question is “how bout that south Florida game tonight” They are only giving up 3 points to Rutgers. I think that USF shut down the RB Rice and come out with a major blow out tonight. Please tell me your thoughts cause Im ready to back the Brinks truck up on this one. Tell me why I should oh great ones……Serioussly you guys do your freakin home work. Im still kickin myself over bets i didnt believe that i should have. Thanks for everything

    P.S. In the NFL the browns have made me a lot of money this year SU and ATS.

    P.S.S. Still waitin on the Cal state shit sandwich. Never again I tell ya!

    Comment by Question | October 18, 2007 | Reply

  2. Thanks for the question. We are split on this game so we avoided it. Here is why we are split.

    Runny – Runny thinks this is Rutgers season. He says that Rutgers has nothing to lose at this point cause of their two defeats, they are playing at home and will throw the kitchen sink at them. He thinks Rutgers wins outright. Purely emotional reaction to this game and taking the Rutgers is backed against the wall approach with nothing to lose.

    Flash – Flash likes South Florida. South Florida is significantly beter in the turnover ratio game at 8 to minus 1 and their run defense is sick. Both teams run the ball well and Rutgers is slightly more efficient at converting third downs. I think South Florida is legit. Both teams are incredibly successful against the spread in most scenarios and in fact neither has any negative talking points ATS. I think this comes down to a belief game. I will take defense over offense and I will take the team that does not turn theball over. The bettors have moved this line down to Bulls -2 and I am fine with that. Go against the grain and take South Florida.

    Well that is why we did not pick it this week. We combine our research, stats, news, etc… and only bet the game we agree on based on each of our proprietary betting models.

    Because we will be in South Bend this weekend I do not have the ability to make Tedford eat his turd sandwich but stay tuned because I figured out how to make him eat one and get it on camera. Trust me. He will pay. ha ha.

    Flash

    Comment by Flash Flash for the Cash | October 18, 2007 | Reply

  3. Also, feel free to post your picks. We love discussing games. The kid who posted his parlay was real hot and we would love to keep seeing what our readers are betting. We know we are making you money and hopefully this will be the slow and steady climb to the top of the mountain that is known as Bowl SEASON. We love us the BOWLS!!!!

    Comment by Flash Flash for the Cash | October 18, 2007 | Reply

  4. Thanks for the question as well. Thanks for checking the site, too. It is a blast handicapping games.

    In regards to Rutgers-SFLA, like Flash wrote above, I think this is Rutgers’ season tonight. They need to win tonight to validate their year last year and to salvage some of 2007. They will play mean. On paper, SFLA should win easily, but don’t forget, Rutgers is from Jersey. They will represent Jersey-style.

    In regards to ND this weekend, I cannot wait for the massacre in South Bend!!! ND better be thankful that SC is so banged-up. Carroll should hire attorneys and keep them on standby for the criminal charges that will be brought against SC’s D. I think Weiss benched Claussen this week simply because he did not want Keith Rivers to cut him in half with one of his celebrated arm tackles. You remember Outback jack from late ’80’s WWF? Remember his finishing move? I think it was called the “boomerang.” That is how Rivers tackles. He even calls his shot and points to the arm he is going to use for the applicable beatdown. I think Rivers was actually planning on cutting Claussen in half and wearing his torso for the rest of the game as a back pack. Taylor Mayes and the rest of the secondary would then play a game of Afghani polo (i.e., Rambo III-style) with Claussen’s lower half. I betcha Sharpley wants to punch Weiss in his nether regions for giving him this start. Thanks, coach!!!

    Runny

    Comment by runnypelvisthefat | October 18, 2007 | Reply

  5. Looks like Runny might be right. That fake FG was sick. Down 10 with 17 minutes to go. South Florida is scrapping but it might be too much to overcome.

    Comment by Flash Flash for the Cash | October 19, 2007 | Reply

  6. Has a a horrible early opening day hope that MSU, KSU, and Aburn (moneyline help me recover). Might even take the Indans to win.

    Comment by Question | October 20, 2007 | Reply

  7. Nice work on the Auburn money line!!!!

    Comment by runnypelvisthefat | October 21, 2007 | Reply

  8. Glad I stayed away from the Indians and Schilling game six record. KSU and MSU and the ducks did there job now its just up to Auburn….Hey I might make a couple hundo tonight.

    Comment by Question | October 21, 2007 | Reply

  9. The Auburn coach needs his ass whip for the freakin squib kick at the end of the game. I feel sick right. Glad I only put a hundo down and put 3 hundo on the ATS. That makes me feel a little better. I hate College football until next week.

    Comment by Question | October 21, 2007 | Reply

  10. Auburn had that game. It would have been great if they won outright. The BCS would be a mess.

    Comment by runnypelvisthefat | October 21, 2007 | Reply

  11. Recap of the week. Big 12 was not kind to us and who the heck saw that Clemson game coming. On the season we are 29-22 picking games, 3-3 on Brinks truck bets and up 7 units. Runny and I are tweaking our models slightly this week because we see some opportunities that we previoulsy were missing out on. We are beating the vig winning at a 57% clip but we know we can do better and we are confident we found the formula to do so. All in all, we only have one losing picking week after 8 weeks and we are happy about that. When we get our picks over 60%, you will be loving us!!!!

    Comment by Flash Flash for the Cash | October 22, 2007 | Reply

  12. Hey im not sure if your taking tonights action, but what do you think about the BC\Vtech game tonight. My interest has me pointed towards BC and +3 they are getting. On paper it looks like BC is gonna beat them by way more then three. BC has also had a harder schedule it looks like. Before I throw $200 on BC tell me what you think…..

    Comment by Question | October 25, 2007 | Reply

  13. Flash and I disagree, but I just took VaTech. BC is not that good. They struggled on the road against a terrible ND team. No way they should be #2 in the BCS. Blacksburg will be insane tonight. Nothing like BC has seen yet (if ever). Glennon should be at QB, which, in my opinion, is actually better for VaTech in this game. I took VaTech. I think it is a trap to take BC.

    Runny

    Comment by runnypelvisthefat | October 25, 2007 | Reply

  14. Yup we are not agreeing on this one. The way I see it is as follows: BC rushes for 25 more yards a game, dominates on offensive 3rd down conversions…45.2% versus 28.9%. Both defenses are good but BC is actually better against the run and has one of the best run Ds in the nation. BC also ball hawks and wins the turnover ratio battle 11 to 3. All signs point to BC for me, especially as the underdog. If BC gets a lead stick a fork in the Hokies.

    Comment by Flash Flash for the Cash | October 25, 2007 | Reply

  15. Looks like the Qb for Vtech is not playin so there goes there X factor. The 2nd QB isnt all that bad but that is just what I needed to make my choice. Should rain tonight also that means the game will be more of a ground game. That also favors BC. I think ill wait till gametime to lay my bet….Should be a great game either way. As always you both were a great help.

    Comment by Question | October 25, 2007 | Reply

  16. BC is terrible. So very overrated. This game should be 21-0 VaTech. They have dropped/missed at least 5 turnovers. BC is not even trying to protect the ball. No way they should be #2. Kansas beats this team by 20 easy.

    Comment by runnypelvisthefat | October 26, 2007 | Reply

  17. Sorry to cut you Runny but the best team won. Sick pass by Matt Ryan for the winning TD. They still won’t go undefeated… at Clemson anyone? Great game.

    Comment by Flash Flash for the Cash | October 26, 2007 | Reply

  18. VaTech completely collapsed. I’m still not convinced that BC is better than VaTech.

    Comment by runnypelvisthefat | October 26, 2007 | Reply


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